FanPost

On the Shoulders of Giants: A Compilation


So while bored today, not being clever enough to do my own analysis, I created sort of a sabermetric almanac, or whatever you'd like to call it, on a Word document and decided to post it here for everyone's perusal. Either way it covers a whole host of concepts through links to various articles I've found enjoyable and instructive over the years on Tom Tango's blog, Fangraphs, The Hardball Times, etc. I've organized it thematically, and I'll be the first to admit that its not exhaustive by any means and that perhaps it should be structured differently, or different articles should be under different headings, etc. Some of the articles are redundant in areas but they are each unique. Either way I think it's a good primer for the uninitiated and a good set of references and maybe some new information for everyone else. Enjoy:

 

· Statistics/Sabermetrics

        o Probability vs. Certainty

        o When samples become reliable

        o Regression

                § Basic concept

                § True talent

                § More regression

                § Groups of players and regression towards the mean

                § Example: stimating hitter platoon skill

                § Regression vs. Progression

                § Reliability of statistics

        o General Statistics

                § Ball in Play (BIP) statistics

                        · Brief explanation

                        · Voros McCracken’s Introduction to Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

                               o Defense Independent Pitching (1999)

                               o Much Control to Hurlers Have? (2001)

                        · Digging deeper: luck, fielding, and park factors

                        · Baseball Prospectus roundtable on BABIP

                        · Expected BABIP for pitchers

                        · Home/road BABIP splits

                        · BIP information dump

                        · Why DIPS does what it does

                        · BIP run values and frequencies, 2009

                        · BIP slash lines and wOBA values 2002-2009

                § Linear Weights

                        · Empirical linear weight values, 1999-2002

· Offense

        o Concepts

        o Statistics

                § wOBA

                        · Brief explanation

                        · History of wOBA

                        · Usefulness of wOBA

                        · Getting to know wOBA

                § More

                        · wRC and wRAA

                        · wRC+?

        o Hit f/x

                § Introduction

                § Linear weights and Hit f/x

· Pitching

        o Concepts

                § Evaluating pitcher talent

                § How can we tell if a pitcher is any good?

        o  Statistics

                § tRA

                        · Introduction

                        · Explained further

                        · Explanation without numbers

                § Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

                        · Brief explanation

        o Miscellaneous

                § The importance of fastball velocity

                § Swinging strikes and strikeout rates

                § Break vs. Movement

                § Linear weights and curveball movement

                § Run value by pitch location

                § Pitch type linear weights explained

                § Age vs. fastball speed

                § Strikeouts & groundballs

                § Pitchers, homeruns, and flyballs

                § The League Average Pitcher

                        · Part I

                        · Part II

                § Pitchers, homeruns, and flyballs

        o Pitch f/x

                § System diagram

                § Command and the catcher’s target

                § Park adjustments

                § Understanding pitch f/x graphs: location vs. movement

· Defense

        o Concepts

                § Evaluating Defense

                § Defense and inferential statistics

                § Sabermetrics 101: Evaluating Fielding

                § How much is a great fielder worth?

                § Valuing defense

                § Excellent fielding presentation

                § UZR vs. PMR

                § What do you regress defensive metrics to?

        o Statistics

                § Everything you need to know in one presentation

                § Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR)

                        · Simple explanation

                        · Intermediate explanation

                        · More explanation!

                        · Creator Mitchel Lichtman’s explanation (advanced)

                                o Part I

                                o Part II

                        · Correlation and sample size, 2008 to 2009

                § Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR)

                        · PMR charts (through 2008)

                § John Dewan’s +/-: See The Fielding Bible Website

        o Miscellaneous

                § Fielding age curve

                § Do fielders with good range commit more errors? No.

 

· Win Probability Added (WPA)

        o Brief explanation

        o Further explanation

        o What WPA is and isn’t

        o Addressing misconceptions

        o What WPA can tell us about players

        o WPA is not predictive

        o Leverage Index (LI)

                §  Crucial Situations (Tango)

                        · Part I

                        · Part II

                        · Part III

                § Leverage Index chart

                § Unleveraging win probability (WPA/LI)

                § LI, relievers, and the Hall of Fame

· Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

        o Brief explanation

        o How to calculate WAR

                § Pitcher win values

                        · Part I

                        · Part II

                        · Part III

                        · Part IV

                        · Part V

                        · Part VI

                        · Part VII

                        · Year-to year correlations

                §  Hitter win values

                        · Part I

                        · Part II

                        · Part III

                        · Part IV

                        · Part V

                        · Part VI

                        · Part VII

                        · Part VIII

                        · Year-to year correlations

                        · Alternate explanation

        o Tom Tango addresses WAR misconceptions

        o Team WAR vs. actual wins

                § WAR: it works

                § Win values correlation to wins & Pythagorean record

        o Career WAR vs. Win Shares

        o WAR and relievers

        o WAR and Salary

                § Linear relationship

                § The dollar value of a win

        o Positional adjustments

                § Explanation/misconceptions

                § Offense by position group by decade

                § Historical positional adjustments

        o 2009 replacement level position players 

· Game Theory

        o Bunting

        o Strategic walks

        o The suicide squeeze

        o When to bring in a reliever

        o Pitching & game theory

        o Stealing home

· Miscellaneous

        o "Clutch"

                § Tom Tango on clutch hitting

                § ‘Clutchiness’ breakdown

                § Team clutch hitting

        o Chemistry

                § Evaluating chemistry

                § Measuring clubhouse chemistry

        o Plate discipline

                § Plate discipline year-to-year correlations

                § Plate discipline to event correlations

        o Playoff experience

        o Comparing win % estimators

        o Evaluating managers

        o Sabermetric Primer

        o Evaluating a Trade

        o Everything you wanted to know about the Pythagorean method

        o Evaluating umpires with pitch f/x

        o WAR by age for the Hall of Fame

        o Every single one of Dave Allen’s Fangraph’s posts because he makes incredible charts like this and this  and this

· Data & Analysis Sources

        o General

                § Run Expectancy, Run Frequency, Runs Created & Linear Weights Generator (using Markov chains)

                § BIP Spraychart application

                § How to build a pitch database

                § wOBA to WAR conversion spreadsheet

                § Weibull worksheet

                § Win Expectancy finder

                § Historical WAR database

        o   Pitch f/x tools

                § Joe Leftkowitz’s Pitch F/x Tool

                § Brooks Baseball’s individual game analyzer

                § Texas Leaguer’s F/X Tool

                § Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool (2008 only)

                § How to create a pitch f/x database

                § Pitch f/x database for a Mac

·Websites to know

        o www.fangraphs.com

        o www.thehardballtimes.com

        o www.insidethebook.com/ee

        o www.beyondtheboxscore.com

        o www.billjamesonline.net

        o www.baseball-reference.com

        o www.firstinning.com

        o www.baseballmusings.com

        o www.statcorner.com

        o www.baseballanalysts.com

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