On the Shoulders of Giants: A Compilation
by Fett42 on Jan 26, 2010 5:02 PM PST
63 comments
So while bored today, not being clever enough to do my own analysis, I created sort of a sabermetric almanac, or whatever you'd like to call it, on a Word document and decided to post it here for everyone's perusal. Either way it covers a whole host of concepts through links to various articles I've found enjoyable and instructive over the years on Tom Tango's blog, Fangraphs, The Hardball Times, etc. I've organized it thematically, and I'll be the first to admit that its not exhaustive by any means and that perhaps it should be structured differently, or different articles should be under different headings, etc. Some of the articles are redundant in areas but they are each unique. Either way I think it's a good primer for the uninitiated and a good set of references and maybe some new information for everyone else. Enjoy:
· Statistics/Sabermetrics
o When samples become reliable
o Regression
§ Groups of players and regression towards the mean
§ Example: stimating hitter platoon skill
o General Statistics
§ Ball in Play (BIP) statistics
· Voros McCracken’s Introduction to Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
o Defense Independent Pitching (1999)
o Much Control to Hurlers Have? (2001)
· Digging deeper: luck, fielding, and park factors
· Baseball Prospectus roundtable on BABIP
· BIP run values and frequencies, 2009
· BIP slash lines and wOBA values 2002-2009
§ Linear Weights
· Empirical linear weight values, 1999-2002
· Offense
o Concepts
o Statistics
§ wOBA
§ More
· wRC+?
o Hit f/x
· Pitching
o Concepts
§ How can we tell if a pitcher is any good?
o Statistics
§ tRA
§ Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
o Miscellaneous
§ The importance of fastball velocity
§ Swinging strikes and strikeout rates
§ Linear weights and curveball movement
§ Pitch type linear weights explained
§ Pitchers, homeruns, and flyballs
§ The League Average Pitcher
· Part I
· Part II
§ Pitchers, homeruns, and flyballs
o Pitch f/x
§ Command and the catcher’s target
§ Understanding pitch f/x graphs: location vs. movement
· Defense
o Concepts
§ Defense and inferential statistics
§ Sabermetrics 101: Evaluating Fielding
§ How much is a great fielder worth?
§ Excellent fielding presentation
§ What do you regress defensive metrics to?
o Statistics
§ Everything you need to know in one presentation
§ Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR)
· Creator Mitchel Lichtman’s explanation (advanced)
o Part I
o Part II
· Correlation and sample size, 2008 to 2009
§ Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR)
· PMR charts (through 2008)
§ John Dewan’s +/-: See The Fielding Bible Website
o Miscellaneous
§ Do fielders with good range commit more errors? No.
· Win Probability Added (WPA)
o What WPA can tell us about players
o Leverage Index (LI)
§ Crucial Situations (Tango)
· Part I
· Part II
· Part III
§ Unleveraging win probability (WPA/LI)
§ LI, relievers, and the Hall of Fame
· Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
§ Pitcher win values
· Part I
· Part II
· Part III
· Part IV
· Part V
· Part VI
· Part VII
§ Hitter win values
· Part I
· Part II
· Part III
· Part IV
· Part V
· Part VI
· Part VII
o Tom Tango addresses WAR misconceptions
§ Win values correlation to wins & Pythagorean record
o WAR and Salary
§ Offense by position group by decade
§ Historical positional adjustments
o 2009 replacement level position players
· Game Theory
o Bunting
· Miscellaneous
o "Clutch"
o Chemistry
§ Measuring clubhouse chemistry
o Plate discipline
§ Plate discipline year-to-year correlations
§ Plate discipline to event correlations
o Everything you wanted to know about the Pythagorean method
o Evaluating umpires with pitch f/x
o WAR by age for the Hall of Fame
o Every single one of Dave Allen’s Fangraph’s posts because he makes incredible charts like this and this and this
· Data & Analysis Sources
o General
§ Run Expectancy, Run Frequency, Runs Created & Linear Weights Generator (using Markov chains)
§ How to build a pitch database
§ wOBA to WAR conversion spreadsheet
o Pitch f/x tools
§ Joe Leftkowitz’s Pitch F/x Tool
§ Brooks Baseball’s individual game analyzer
§ Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool (2008 only)
§ How to create a pitch f/x database
§ Pitch f/x database for a Mac
·Websites to know
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Maybe post this here.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-sabermetric-library
(it’s Dave Cameron’s post with the idea of creating a sabermetric library)
Ah, perfect timing
Time to see how the formatting works in the comments…
Awesome.
I’m not sure if you saw, but yesterday Dave Cameron at FanGraphs requested readers to submit links to important or highly informative Sabermetric articles. The post is right here, if you’d like to share with them the information you dug up.
Awesome compilation again, by the way. I cannot say that enough.
Wow. Thank you.
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
`
In this comment you will witness Tom Tango call Matthew “Matt”
Well I know what I'll be doing at work tomorrow
Just a little bit of light reading to fill me in on some of the gaps.
This is link getting sent around.
great work.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2010 10:29 PM PST reply actions
Yeah in part
I’m planning on sending it to the instructor and other people in the class
a buddy of mine is developing a class
it is a 101-level college course aimed at non-science majors. One of those “general-ed” requirements type of courses. The point would be to teach math/stats (and how cool it is) in a way that might appeal to a broad audience. An introduction on inference, scientific method, etc, through the lens of baseball, targeted at people who say they “hate math” but understand/discuss ERA. (and, then of course once we rope them in, discuss why ERA is a shitty formula…)
Anyway, its only in the development stages. I’d love to hear a bit more about this class you took. Where/who/what level was it tought at, etc?
by Astrobiology on Jan 27, 2010 9:55 AM PST up reply actions
I just got back from lesson 11 of 40 for the semester
Basically to put it bluntly its been a total disappointment. You can email me for the details and such if you’d like.
Edited to fix the formatting...
Much prettier now.
Not sure if this is a good place to ask this, but I didn't want to take the Nick Hill thread off topic to ask it.
This comment got me thinking:
Hill as a starter last year: 3 HR in 57.2 innings
Hill as a reliever last year: 2 HR in 40.2 innings
Why do we show XXXXX per inning in the case of hits/HR/BB? This basically shows the rate of occurrence over a number of outs. It seems to me that XXXXX/batters faced would give you more accurate numbers, because the XXXXX being listed has nothing to do with the amount of outs the kid got.
Am I just missing something?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Oh, ok. So just habit/that's how the data is currently?
Fair enough, I just figured there migth be a reason behind it I didn’t see.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Yep, it's how the data is often presented
Some places still use X/plate appearance – statcorner and first inning come to mind.
Nice list
Might I suggest adding this presentation re: defensive evaluation? (warming: .pdf)
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...
Awesome
I would link to more Pitch f/x work, especially John Walsh’s 2007 stuff on classifying pitchers, run values, fastball velocity and location, and Josh Kalk and Mike Fast’s THT work.
Also, I’d like to plug my own (read, basically Mike Fast’s) Pitch f/x database primer for a mac.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/19/994666/saberizing-a-mac-4-pitch-f-x
It’s more current and up to date than the ones you linked, and the comments section is great for trouble shooting errors.
You should also link to some of Patriot’s work on BaseRuns, and Colin’s work on run estimators.
Sounds good
Any article people want me to link in this I’ll go ahead and edit in to the post.
That is a lot of reading
And I will have to do it very very slowly…Impressive, though – good on you! :)
~I once gave Jose Canseco $15. ~
Damn, that's awesome.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Just so you know, Neyer linked to this from his blog this morning.
Thanks for all of your hard work putting this together.
I now have no excuse for knowing this stuff.
Thanks, Fett. Thanks a bunch.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jan 29, 2010 12:32 PM PST reply actions
I joined LOL simply so I could give this the REC it deserves
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Feb 4, 2010 7:00 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
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