James Taylor Says Sheets To Oakland For $10m
Real good move for the A's - while Sheets is, obviously, a spectacular risk, on true talent he pushes that team north of .500. Everybody in this division has a realistic shot of going to the playoffs.
over 2 years ago
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More than I'd have been happy paying, but good for the A's
This should be a really fun division.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 10:02 AM PST reply actions
I saw the cost analysis you did in the other thread
But doesn’t your suggested price tag come with a neutral environment, i.e. one that does not have competing interests?
Sheets is maybe the last (potential) high reward SP on the FA market. We knew he was going to attract a lot of interest and it’s been reported that he had at least 3 suitors to choose from. How do competitive bids factor into your cost analysis?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 26, 2010 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It depends
I think that Sheets is a better gamble to invest in for the A’s than, say, the Mariners or the Rangers, simply because they’re in a better position to take gambles with money. If Sheets works out perfectly, you’re competitive, and if he doesn’t, you weren’t going to be anyway.
The Rangers and the Mariners are not able to make upside bets like that.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 10:47 AM PST up reply actions
I understand that
What I’m asking is, when making an upside bet like Sheets (one that involves multiple suitors) shouldn’t you factor in competition?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Not unless there is literally no other way to improve your team
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
Or if there is literally no other way for the A's to improve their team and signing Sheets stops them from doing so.
But given the fact that the A’s are less of a threat than some of our other competition, even in that case it wouldn’t factor in much.
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Yeah but the marginal wins Sheets could bring to our team are worth a ton
If he is ~3 wins, he’s gonna push us into that 90 win sweet spot.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
The 3 marginal wins we can get from other FAs are worth equally as much.
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Roster spots
it doesn’t matter if we sign 3 one-win players. Where will they play?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
I said marginal wins.
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I don't think it's too hard to get 3 wins with $10 million in this market.
We have almost nothing at LF(RH), SP, RP, and C, it wouldn’t take much to upgrade there. How about a trade for Koji Uehara then sign Fernando Tatis and Chan Ho Park.
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It's possible that we have less than 10mil left also
So Sheets was out of the question anyways.
You're conveniently ignoring the whole roster spot limitation.
And Park? Bring him to the AL and you’re out of your mind if you think he’s more than a fraction of a win upgrade over our bag of fifth starters.
Uehara is probably a 2 win upgrade over French.
Tatis is maybe a half win upgrade as a RHLF platoon, Chan Ho Park is a .75ish win bullpen upgrade… There, 3.25 wins for less than what Sheets got.
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but he was 1.5 WAR last year!
Let’s ignore the 3 years before that where he was ~replacement level
by Mariner John on Jan 26, 2010 12:57 PM PST up reply actions
How do you get a 0.75 WAR RP upgrade
Dotel was worth that last year.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:57 PM PST up reply actions
I can't possibly imagine Chan Ho Park being worth .75 wins in the bullpen,
let alone be .75 wins over the guy he’d bump down (Kelley?)
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, but then he's bumping the long reliever to AAA
it’s hard to imagine a guy being worth .75 WAR as the mop-up guy out of the bullpen
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:00 PM PST up reply actions
Breaking news: Chan Ho Park is good
quoth some guy at fangraphs….
Go figure
still don’t think he’s .75 wins out of the pen though
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:02 PM PST up reply actions
What's really weird is that it looks like he missed fewer bats and threw less strikes than 2008
but was for some reason able to generate ground balls and thus keep the ball in the ballpark, which is why his FIP is so good
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks to the magic of chaining, it's not clear that he would be.
(OK, OK, I’m not advocating buying ‘high’ on Chan Ho Park, but everyone’s getting snarky over something that has a bit of merit to it. It’s not what I’d do, but it’s not as batshit crazy as people are making it out to be.)
Looks like Statcorner has him around 3.80 overall (based on my rough back of the envelope calculation)
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
Right, but NOBODY is advocating getting him to start for the M's.
We only care about him in the ’pen. If we did care, that is.
Holy crap, 2.49 in relief for Philly
Statcorner/Fangraphs difference of 2.1 runs?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:13 PM PST up reply actions
Statcorner, as a starter, tRA: 6.60.
That’s why…. at least, I think that’s why.
Fangraphs isn’t separating them out, I don’t believe.
Yeah, that's what it looks like
OK, so 2.49 in relief for Philly. I’m still not sure I buy it because in 2008, he ran a tRA of 5.56 in an even bigger sample in relief for the Dodgers. Maybe it’s true that he’s figured something out in relief like Dave was saying, but I still think it’s a stretch that he’s a .75 win reliever in 2010.
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
One year of piching data does not tell us much
Need more data. Previous data says he sucks. To overturn this assumption we need much more data.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:13 PM PST up reply actions
I'm confused
He was good in 2008 and 2009? Is that what you guys are saying?
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:22 PM PST up reply actions
He was average to bad as a reliever in 2008
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
Confirmed that Statcorner has him down for a 5.56 tRA as a reliever in 2008
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
And in the top right
Our target group is people who aren’t stupid
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:52 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I think you should pander to the LCD in order to forster a more welcoming enviroment
You almost lost a subscriber!
Who do you give up for Uehara
He isn’t coming free. Whoever you give up for him has value that you can’t ignore.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
Someone bad and cash.
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Why would they trade a good player for a crappy player and cash?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:01 PM PST up reply actions
I mean unless you give them a LOT of money
but then you’re defeating the whole budget thing
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:01 PM PST up reply actions
Because money makes the world go 'round.
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Why would they do that?
To get 2 wins you probalby are gonna give up $8 in value.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:02 PM PST up reply actions
His contract is $5 mil, so we should pay $3ish in value.
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So we are buying 2 wins for $3 million
This sounds great.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:07 PM PST up reply actions
And $5 million on his contract.
2 wins for $8 million (value). We could throw in some talent there to bring down the cost.
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Sorry what i meant was
Baltimore has a 2 win decrease and has their payroll reduced by 2 million.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Ok so how is giving up $8mil in value for Uehara
Better than $10mil for Sheets? I’m not seeing it.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
That doesn't bring down the cost.
It only changes the nature of the investment.
Well,
We could throw in some talent there to bring down the cost.
Well we have payroll limitations...
So trading talent helps keep payroll open for other minor moves.
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That seems like a great deal.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
There really is only much playing time at SP
An elite RP would give us 1 WAR. Anything we acquire now with the bullpen how its set up now would probably only get enough playing time get 0.5 WAR max.
Our RHB LF isn’t gonna get much ABs. He’s on the wrong side of the platoon and if Saunders comes up part way through the season or Bradley plays any OF his ABs will get eaten into also. Another 0.5 WAR max probably.
I don’t see much out there for catcher and I don’t think they want to aquire a catcher on a long term deal. I think they are really interested in giving Moore some PT. This is a little of an unknown but I would be surprised if they get a catcher.
If you trade for anybody you give up value that matters too so you have to count that against Sheets’ $10 million salary. Missing out on Sheets isn’t that bad but it would have been a nice spot to get some wins into our roster.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah its just getting to the point where there aren't many ways to use FA to get a 3 win upgrade
SP was probably the easiest way to go. We can always do it with a trade. I was just saying that there is some way you could justify paying Sheets this much if you assume the difference between the 89th win and 90 win is worth something like $6mil or more.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Where are these "sure-thing" wins you speak of
and where can they be purchased for reasonable prices? Its always a gamble where you weigh the odds.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
Well "sure-thing" is a bit of an overstatement, I mean far less risky investments
For example, Liriano/Hudson/Tatis probably would cost about the same, and you can’t make that move if you sign Sheets.
Liriano didn't miss the whole 2009 season.
He was just bad at it.
by Spider Jerusalem on Jan 26, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
Not as risky as Sheets
And that’s just one example of how we can use that money.
Sheets might have more upside right now though
Also, we don’t know how much it would take to get Liriano. If it was just Lopez then we probably would have done it now. There is a reason we haven’t done it and I’m guessing its not cause we didn’t want to give up Lopez.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Or it could be that they were waiting to see on Sheets.
Or it could be a reason none of us has any idea about.
by Spider Jerusalem on Jan 26, 2010 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Can you risk getting zero improvement vs. getting some improvement elsewhere?
If Sheets is worth five wins when healthy, and you expect him to miss 60% of a season on average, you might set his price at two wins. But you’re not really getting two wins, you’re taking a bet on his health.
The Mariners can’t afford to lose a bet like that right now, not for that price.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
I need to think about this a little
It just seems like if the bet pays off with us the upside is gigantic. I think its tough to call because to be able to say for certain you need very accurate (down to a game or two) projections of the team performance and Sheets’ value.
I think either way is justifiable now that I think about it more. If you think the M’s are more like a 85 win team then overpaying Sheets might make more sense however if you are a 87 win team then getting a 2 WAR player that can be depended on makes more sense. It also depends as much on your projections of Sheets. Really I’m not sure if we can accurately say if this it would be a good move because there is so much uncertainty in all of this stuff.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
Say Oakland are an 80-win team, and an 85 win team can compete but an 80-win team can't
The risk/reward for them is clear – no risk, massive reward.
For us, it’s not about contending, but about pulling free of the pack. There is real risk in not taking safer value than Sheets, even if the upside is lower. The reward for Sheets is also bigger, though.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah maybe I'm overvaluing the payoff if Sheets stays healthy
I don’t mind not getting Sheets. I think it will work out fine. I’m just having a tricky time thinking why it makes sense for an 80 win team to overpay compared to an 85 win team. I get what you are saying though. I might have to work it out a little more to convince myself which I will do offline.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
If I'm understanding Graham right
He is saying that 1 or 2 “sure” wins are better than potentially 0 wins, even if the upside is 4 wins. I guess if you think that the Mariners are right on the cusp of contending, than definitely contending is better than being on the cusp.
Well, I am excited to see what Z's plan B is!
by seattlesundevil on Jan 26, 2010 10:03 AM PST reply actions
My money is on Washburn.
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on Jan 26, 2010 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
This seems the most likely.
Really think the Bedard ship has sailed.. Just turn the page and forget about that disaster.
by seattlesundevil on Jan 26, 2010 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
I wonder what his source is?
I bet he’s got a friend.
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jan 26, 2010 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
How Sweet it Is
to have such a talent filling us in on AL West News
There's a lot of news out there.
The river is wide with information. I think he feels like he can cross o’er and deliver it to us.
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jan 26, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
AL West goes pitcher hunting!
A’s = Ben Sheets
Rangers = Rich Harden
Mariners = Cliff Lee
Angels = Joel Pineiro…
He will go on the DL!
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
Who is best remaining FA starting pitcher?
Washburn, Smoltz, or Garland.
Enough with Bedard already.
He likely won’t be able to pitch until June at the earliest. There is no reason for any team to sign him until they know what he can do. If he looks good in April/May, then sign him.
Bedard could be better than any of those guys
even if he only throws half a season.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:14 PM PST up reply actions
Wonderful.
But nobody is going to sign him unless he can prove he can throw a baseball. You might see a Mark Prior situation, but Bedard will probably want to hold out a couple extra months to get in shape and then sign a bigger deal.
I think most everybody expects Bedard to be able to come back and pitch ok
He might not be an ace after he returns but I don’t think he has suffered a career ending injury. I don’t think Bedard will be able to get much more of a bonus in $$ if he holds out. Also, he needs a team to rehab with probably. I remember seeing somewhere he was talking about signing with someone before spring training.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
I would prefer Chien-Ming.
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Jan 26, 2010 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
See this is why I called him by his first name.
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Jan 26, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I just want him to see if Librocrat gets banned for puns.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I have one really, really long one I already wrote out.
But then I’ll be done
...and now I'm here
"Wang pitches to Johnson."
Would LLers ever stop giggling at that?
It would be the new “Silva is Fat” joke.
What about Webb?
When might he pitch again? He was putting together a hall of fame career before his arm fell off.
Call me crazy, but I'm not so miffed when an injury-prone FA pitcher snubs my favorite team.
Even if that injury-prone FA pitcher can be damn good when healthy.
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
Plan B is Wang, Smoltz, and Bedard for less than Oakland got Sheets for.
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So Smoltz would be the next Gaylord Perry/Goose Gossage?
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Jan 26, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
I agree.
I’m not sure that Smoltz can be a good pitcher in the AL. I know I’m only looking at ERA and wins last year for Boston, but he did not pitch good for them. Is the thinking that his numbers are going to be better because of Safeco Field? Or is it because the thinking is that he is a better option than our other current pitchers? I would much rather have Washburn than Smoltz.
by seattle_since_81 on Jan 26, 2010 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
I was actually referring to the fact that he'd be another Hall of Famer (probably) who spends on of his
last seasons with the Mariners. And he’s both a starter and a reliever.
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Jan 26, 2010 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
Smoltz did not pitch poorly when he was in Boston.
His ERA was high because he ran into some bad luck over only 40 innings.
Whether or not he can be a full-time starter anymore, I don’t know. But there’s zero evidence to support the idea that Smoltz can’t pitch in the AL.
Opponents had a .390 BABIP off of him vs. .293 despite a LD%
of only 18% which is llower than his career LD% (well, dating back to 2002)
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Jan 26, 2010 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
Smoltz has a pretty large platoon split and he's only a 5-6 inning pitcher
There are concerns, but at worst you’d be getting a very good relief pitcher.
At lot of things would have to happen for us to acquire him because, as I understand it, he really wants to return to St. Louis.
Platoon splits are useful if the overall product is still great.
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Smoltz is a good pitcher, the fact that he has a big platoon split just means we can leverage that to maximize every situation.
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Even if he's starting. High leverage situation with 2 lefties coming up in the 5th inning?
Replacing him with a medicore lefty is an upgrade. If you have someone who is just as good as Smoltz with no platoon split, you are at a disadvantage in this situation.
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Or you're at an advantage because you don't have to switch pitchers?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I don't think I understand this argument.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Ok, lets say you have Smoltz and SmoltzB (normal platoon clone)
Runners on 1st and 2nd, one out with two LHB coming up:
Smoltz: Replace him with a lefty reliever.
SmoltzB: Leave him in (or replace, depending on the strength of your LHP)
Two RHB coming up:
Smoltz: Leave him in because he destroys righties
SmoltzB: Leave him in (or replace, depending on the strength of your RHP)
In the first example, you pretty much come to the same conclusion. In the second, you can leave Smoltz in.
It also means he can be a shutdown RH reliever if he proves not to hold up to starting this season.
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Think about it in run expectancy terms.
Against 2 RHB, you get to use Smoltz’s platoon advantage to your advantage. Against 2 LHB, you know replacing either with a LHP is probably advantageous and you don’t get to use SmoltzB’s mediocrity to any sort of advantage.
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No that makes no sense.
Especially if you’re replacing him in the 5th. You then have to use a bunch of worse pitchers for the rest of the game because he in theory can’t pitch to LHB.
by Mariner John on Jan 26, 2010 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
You're ignoring available roster spots
although this doesn’t seem to be a problem for lailaihei
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
Don't most starters average 5-6 innings?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...
Smoltz was significantly better during his time in the AL last year than Washburn has been at any point over the last 4 years
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
So if you know you're looking at bad stats for his time in Boston, how did you come to the conclusion that he pitched poorly for them?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
To be fair he looked like crap as well.
If I hadn’t seen any numbers and just went by his performances, I’d say he was done from his time in Boston.
It’s easy to use bad numbers to back up what you see.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I'm just saying if you know you're going by stats which are poor, why bother quoting them in the first place?
Why not just say “Smoltz looked awful in Boston and his results reflected that?”
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
He had a flukey HR rate in Boston
He had a three start stretch where he ran a 13:1 K/BB ration and allowed 6 home runs
Unfortunately, I haven't schooled myself in advanced stats enough to quote them.
I probably should have said that I heard that Boston fans said he did not look good. I’m not hugely sold on an over 40 year old pitcher making a huge difference for the Mariners (unless it’s Randy Johnson……………..just kidding).
by seattle_since_81 on Jan 26, 2010 6:10 PM PST up reply actions
I would like to take a shot with Pedro.
...and now I'm here
If Heyman is to be believed
the base salary is 10 million.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 26, 2010 10:42 AM PST reply actions
Olney is reporting that it is in the range of $8 million.
by seattle_since_81 on Jan 26, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
I believe the report is 'over 8M'
which 10M is. Heyman’s been on this from the get go, so I’m gonna believe him here. He’s saying it’s 10M plus uncentives which is… well it might work out for them.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2010 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
Uncentives is a great word, I need to find a way to use it.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
If I make fun of him while using it it's parody covered by fair use.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Uncentive...
i guess that would be something to the effect of
“pitcher x will get cockpunched for each of 100, 120, and 150 IP. For every inning over 150, player X’s uniform will be something Cindy Lauper once wore.”
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2010 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
hey it's almost like someone mentioned this earlier...
by ManifestDestiny on Jan 26, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
Except you did the whole chatspeak thing and it got hidden
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Please capitalize.
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on Jan 26, 2010 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
Is it time for the Lopez Loriano trade?
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
Francisco Liriano and Rafael Soriano had a child and no one told me?
by Zygomorphic on Jan 26, 2010 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
And named him Lopez?
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Jan 26, 2010 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
Sorry, I mean Liriano.
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
He is probably very happy.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Awww. I'll still root for you, Benny Boy.
Just not if the A’s are in it.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Last time we missed out on a broken pitcher we got Cliff Lee
We are going to trade for CC Sabathia in three days and the Yankees will pick up the entire tab.
Last time we missed out on a broken pitcher we got Batista (Schmidt)
(I am doubting myself if this is totally correct for some reason)
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
Let's not compare Bavasi-era to Jack-era.
Apples to mastodons, sir.
by Spider Jerusalem on Jan 26, 2010 12:31 PM PST up reply actions
That's unfortunate, but the AL West race should be pretty damned good.
Also, the A’s staff now has the potential to be really good assuming Sheets is healthy and the kids progress.
Argh, we have to play Oakland like 7 of our first 10 games.
We probably have to play Sheets twice!
$10M + incentives, from Oakland!? Where did that come from.
It came from failing to sign Beltre or Chapman.
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Just once
If Sheets pitches at the top of the rotation and the rotation holds up through 10 games for the A’s, we’ll see Sheets just once in April. Felix vs Sheets on opening day.
by doublemazaa on Jan 26, 2010 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
Which I wouldn't mind.
I’m thinking that Felix will be able to pitch a better game than Sheets.
by seattle_since_81 on Jan 26, 2010 5:45 PM PST up reply actions
I'll take Wang, please.
Lots and lots of Wang.
by Spider Jerusalem on Jan 26, 2010 12:05 PM PST reply actions
Well let's go get Willingham and Harang
The AL West is going to be ridiculous this year, especially if the A’s get Damon
by ManifestDestiny on Jan 26, 2010 12:11 PM PST reply actions
Harang blows, I'd rather have Wang.
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Yeah Harang is a bit better, but I don't think he's worth anything near his contract or what it would take to get him.
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Get some money thrown in and give them something shiny and we can probably make a deal.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
Rob Johnson is the epitome of dull and anything unshiny
If you can get excited about Rob Johnson you probably have been raised in a white padded room with no windows your whole life.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
I bet Rob Johnson's wife gets excited about Rob's Johnson
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I believe she is pretty whelmed about her Johnson.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2010 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
No, like literally,
first-hand experience?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Where would Damon even play?
Cust is DHing, Sweeney/Davis/Crisp make up a pretty solid OF. If Damon were to push any of them out, it would be Crisp (the guy they just signed). I suppose Damon could rotate into the DH spot versus righties and play left against lefties, but given their park and how much Yankee Stadium inflated Damon’s offensive stats…I just don’t see how that move would help them much.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 26, 2010 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
This sucks
The answer to Graham’s question yesterday is you pay him whatever you have left – especially if it is a one year deal. This is now a four team race in the AL West but hey, look at all the money we saved!
How do you know that GMZ doesn't have something else clever planned?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
How do you know that GMZ didn't match Oakland's offer and Ben Sheets wanted to pitch in the cavernous foul ground of the Coliseum instead?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
Says you
Even on a WAR/$ basis the deal isn’t bad and the upside makes it more than palatable. Buy hey, I guess you know more about this than Beane would.
Bruin, if he didn’t want to pitch here then that is a different story but also not the answer I gave.
You'll notice that Billy Beane is the GM of the Oakland Athletics and not the Seattle Mariners
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
You might also notice that the actual GM of the Mariners does not believe that we should have spent all of our money on Sheets
So what exactly was your point? Did you have one that I somehow overlooked when working through your mass of amusing, albeit misplaced, snarkiness?
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
point is
that a very good GM felt it was indeed worth the $10m+ and it is now a 4 team race. And yes, now you are get to say that Z is also a good GM and he didn’t think it was worth it and we’ll agree to disagree.
My expectation is that Z has a backup/alternate plan in place and that the Ms come out of this with another very good pitcher. I just believe it was an opportunity wasted and to a divisional rival no less.
He didn't throw a single pitch last year.
Sheets very well might be flat out terrible this year.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2010 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
Or he could be an 8 WAR pitcher
I expect he’ll be in the 4 WAR range but that is what scouts are for, right? My point is there is enough upside to warrant the risk.
Emphasis on insane.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Only one time did he get 8 WAR
And that was 5 years ago and he wasn’t coming off a season that involved major elbow surgery. Its more likely that he will be 2009 Fransico Liriano.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2010 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
The A's have more incentive to make a bet.
Healthy Sheets vaults them into contention. Unhealthy Sheets? They weren’t going to be good anyway. He had more value to them than he did to us, and they paid accordingly.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
I'm still not quite sure I understand the "he has more value to them than us" argument
are you saying that vaulting from out of contention —> contention is more valuable in general than contention —> better contention?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:00 PM PST up reply actions
He could fuck us over.
The A’s already suck – So it doesn’t matter if they take the risk.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2010 1:02 PM PST up reply actions
No
I am saying that the A’s need a huge leap to get into the playoff picture, because otherwise they’re completely out of it. They can’t make little improvements and expect to be in the AL West race.
We need whatever improvements we can get to pull away from Texas and Anaheim. Every little bit counts for us, which means losing Sheets to injury would be very very bad compared to spending that money elsewhere. For the A’s, they cannot spend elsewhere and compete, they have to go all in here.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
We could replace Sheets if he gets hurt through a midseason trade
Negating a little risk and causing high upside injury risk players to be a little more palatable though right?
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
Well, not really
We could make that offseason trade anyway, unless you’re trading away Sheets, which you can’t if he’s not healthy. Plus payroll space.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah but if we have a spot filled with slow and steady guys the offseaon trade has no hole to fill
Agree with payroll space unless player insurance exists(?).
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
What I think is hanging everyone up here (including me)
is where else is that money going to go? The FA market is just about done for players with that kind of talent.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
FA market isn't the only option
Money makes certain deals more palatable to other teams.
I just don't see that, though.
No amount of money is going to replace the need to give up good talent to bring in a player of that level.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I'm not sure I would agree.
With 4 teams so close in the division, we don’t have a great shot at it. Adding a couple of players that might improve the team by a win or two doesn’t impact our chances much. You can easily make the point that with few options available to make big upgrades at this point in the off-season, the team that eventually wins might well be the team that takes a shot at adding a player or two of huge value. If he doesn’t pan out, you probably weren’t going to win anyway. Being among the front-runners in this division right now means we have maybe a 30% chance of getting in the playoffs.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 26, 2010 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
The next marginal win is more important for us
So don’t take a $10 million roll-of-the-dice…. go out and use that money on someone who’s a surer bet to GET that add’l win. Even if the upside is lower.
As Graham mentions, the A’s can afford to take a big risk, because if it blows up, there’s no big loss, and if works out perfectly, they’re on the edge of contention. For the M’s, spending their last $10 m on a gamble when someone less flashy can make an appreciable difference in the race doesn’t make as much sense.
so then
you’d rather spend the money on someone like Washburn? Becuase that is as sure as it gets ~2WAR for probably 5-6M. Hey, take the sure thing, right?
I would rather have Washburn and $5M than Sheets, yes
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
(This is not me endorsing us signing Washburn for $5M)
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
Is Washburn even 1.5 wins at this point?
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
he's been roughly 2 WAR
for each of the last 7 years, so even with some aging he is probably 1.5-2 WAR, yes.
tRA has seriously whiffed on Washburn his whole career
Season to season, differences like that could be meaningful. But if the trend shows up for such a long period, there’s probably something it’s not getting right with Washburn.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 26, 2010 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
Or it could be that Washburn's a flyball lefty who plays in HR suppressing parks
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 3:11 PM PST up reply actions
Did Angels Stadium supress home runs?
I was under the impression that it was just about neutral in most respects. You could probably assume that some of that difference could be due to park factors and defense, but looking at the teams he’s played for and the stadiums he’s pitched in, there’s no way the difference should be so large.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 26, 2010 3:24 PM PST up reply actions
Angels stadium kills homers
HR/FB: .869
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 3:27 PM PST up reply actions
So almost 90% of flyballs leave the yard in Angels stadium?
So I’m assuming that means 87% of normal. Where’d you get that number? I don’t have older park factors from when he was pitching in Anaheim, other than ESPN, although I’m not sure I particularly trust theirs. I did find a four year HR/FB rate on THT of 96, but that of course is not while he was pitching there.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/hr-fb-park-factors/
It may have changed since then.
ESPN’s HR park factor from 2002 to 2005 are .612, .789, 1.062, .906. That’s pretty heavy home run repression. Dan Szymborski ran some from 2003-2005 that have it at 94 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/weighted_park_factors_2003_2005/
which really wouldn’t make much difference.
I have no doubt that Washburn has been helped by defense and park during his career — he’s probably had one or the other going for him at pretty much every stage of his career. But the difference is too large to attribute to those factors alone. There’s something else about Washburn that’s not getting measured right.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 26, 2010 5:11 PM PST up reply actions
which is why
we’ll just agree to disagree. I’d rather spend the extra $5m on the potential for much much more.
I would then spend the remaining money on someone else.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
If you don't blow your load on SP
Do you really think you can get much of an upgrade out of other positions on the team (as long as you don’t get insanely creative with roster construction)? It really seems tough to get that many more wins out of a RHB LF and maybe a catcher (if this is a spot they even want to upgrade).
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
Remember that a RHB LF is not just a bench player
Milton Bradley is expected to be missing some time too
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:13 PM PST up reply actions
I like the idea of Tui or Saunders
in those roles. If they are going to start in AAA then I agree with you that we probably need a RH-LF/1B option.
Keeping Saunders up to sit on the bench
seems like a waste of resources to me, especially when he could be developing his power more
Saunders is renowned for his ability to hit right-handed
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 26, 2010 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Never played OF before!
Not an exceptional defender at 3b, why not throw him to the wolves in a playoff race? What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Mike Morse-in-the-OF? Oh, yeah, that’s the worst that could happen.
I actually...
think this is a pretty good idea. Tui’s got much better tools for the OF than Morse. Throwing him into the OF for the first time during a playoff race, as you say, isn’t a great idea, but having him learn OF in Tacoma for the first month or two makes all kinds of sense to me.
Learn in Tacoma is fine... I just think we need to see what his tools look like out there
Why do you think Tui’s got better tools for the OF than Morse? Or rather, why did you think Morse’s tools wouldn’t work in the OF before they tried it?
I think you may be right, and I have enough respect for Tui’s athletic gifts that he wouldn’t be a danger to actually hurt himself through poor defense in the way Morse did, but there are enough similarities in their progression through the defensive spectrum to give me pause.
I was joking FYI
But I’m for the Tacoma trial.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah but he's the bad half of the plattoon with Langerhaus in any case
And Bradley will probably see LF a little if he’s healthy I’m assuming.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
Right, but he's more than a platoon if you are going to be docking Milton Bradley for being injury prone
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
But does he get much more playing time if Bradley gets hurt
I guess if he is a good enough batter he’ll get time at DH. So we should be looking for a guy who gets his value from hitting over defense to maximize his value right?
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
So bring back Ibanez!
I miss freaking out on routine flyballs to left
That's the way to hit dingers!
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
Washburn was just an example
used for Marc who said he’d rather have the consistency for less. Pick another example if you prefer.
do you think I give a shit?
The discourse is entertaining and educational. I visit this site because I learn from it and am entertained by the people here but if I disagree with the norm then I should voice my opinion, no?
Try opening your mind to other ideas and see if you learn something instead of being a lamb.
really?
ok, my bad. Sure sounded like he was calling me out for disagreeing with you and I called him on it. But hey, it’s your site, your rules.
He was commenting on your comment
You were calling him a sheep. There’s a difference. Observe that and you’ll be fine
by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2010 1:21 PM PST up reply actions
ok got it
it was just a continuation of the implication that I shouldn’t agree with you since you are a mod, but I assume that isn’t what you want either. Sec 108, my apologies then.
I was not calling you out for disagreeing with anyone.
More like saying you are being hostile to some downright cool people. Step back a bit and relax. You are new here. There is no reason to ever speak to marc w the way you did. Dude is pure gold as is Graham.
Also, if you knew me at all you would not call me a lamb.
Thanks sec 108, but I don't think he was out of line with me.
He asked a pointed question. Fair enough.
(Sec 108 is gold, and his hugs are as warm and inviting as a tropical beach)
Not hostil or uptight,
just defensive! haha
BTW, actually not new here, been around for years, just don’t post much. Pretty familiar with most of the folks on here and seem to be a good group.
BY GOD HE'S RIGHT!
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jan 26, 2010 12:42 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Teej, you know as well as I do that deep down
we all have the same needs. Shh…it’s okay.
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jan 26, 2010 12:46 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Your very obvious implication was that we cheaped out by not signing Sheets
what did I read wrong about this? Either be more clear or more smart.
by seattlebruin on Jan 26, 2010 12:57 PM PST up reply actions
Food for thought
Ian Snell and Josh Willingham cost roughly the same for the next 2 years.
by ManifestDestiny on Jan 26, 2010 12:28 PM PST reply actions
Problem: Josh Willingham is not on our team
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
Lopez for Willingham + 2.3 MM
The Nats pay 4.6 for Lopez (which is cheaper than Hudson or F. Lopez), we pay 2.3 for Willingham. Nobody takes on any salary, each team gets a better fit, etc…
Stop it stop it stop it.
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jan 26, 2010 12:47 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Hey remember the last time we missed on signing an often injured free agent starter?
The week that followed it was pretty cool…
No Wang. Wang would get crushed here.
Have you seen his splits against LH batters? They have been terrible for the past three years. Sure, he’s a groundball pitcher, but that’s because any time a LH batter gets any air under the ball in right field, it goes out of the park. Ichiro’s fast, but not that fast. We need a better fit for Safeco.
We should get Wang just so Ichiro has someone to speak Asian with now that Kenji's gone
by Dewey N on Jan 26, 2010 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Just because they don't speak English doesn't mean their language doesn't count.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 26, 2010 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
But they also don't speak "asian".
Ichiro speaks Japanese.
Wang, being Chinese, probably speaks one of the many dialects that is spoken in China.
I can’t see any reason to think that they will converse in anything other than American English.
I would also suggest picking your spots better.
Not every outlandish joke needs a straight man counter. It ceases being funny.
They prefer Oriental
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Well that does it. Time to
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2010 12:57 PM PST reply actions 8 recs
Finally. A hole Wang can fit in.
by Spider Jerusalem on Jan 26, 2010 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
E/Or -- By Heavy Vegetable
What up G?
Don’t worry.
I’ll pin your tail back on.
Happy Birthday
It’s O.K.
I’ll pin your tail back on.
Bow is red and you are blue.
You hate everything
And I love you too.
The AL Central could get pounded this year.
With 7 good teams between the AL East and West the wins are going to have to come from somewhere. It could be an interesting finish to the season were the AL Central is won by 82 wins, with three 90 win teams in the West.
Garland is gone now too
Signs with Padres, no terms disclosed yet
by ManifestDestiny on Jan 26, 2010 2:24 PM PST reply actions
The Padres are attempting to assemble the most boring team ever.
All they need to do now is trade away Gonzalez.
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jan 26, 2010 2:32 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I would sign 2 high risk/high reward lefties
Noah Lowry
Mark Mulder
Is Noah Lowry really high reward?
I would take a flier on Mulder but from all indications he’s tied to the Brewers.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 26, 2010 3:04 PM PST up reply actions
See if Dayton Moore will try to repeat his Gil Meche success
Offer him Snell for DeJesus straight up
I see "Twins" and "Mariners" atop MLBTR and I get excited
and it turns out to be Twins, Mariners top Washburn’s wishlist. At least Wash is aware of how few his choices are.
It seems so inevitable at this point.
Especially because the Twins signed Pavano.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 26, 2010 5:03 PM PST up reply actions
How about Damon and Smoltz?
Hey everyone, Follow me on Twitter!, check out My Baseball Blog, and Last.fm me!
I say we tempt Randy Johnson to come out of retirement
by Teal n Blue on Jan 26, 2010 8:17 PM PST via mobile reply actions 2 recs
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