BA's Top Ten Mariner Prospects

There's already been a significant amount of chat about this on the site (see JY's FanPost), but I'm going to write about it anyway because it seems easy. Baseball America released their top ten prospect list for the team yesterday (taking their sweet time about it, might I add), and although the scouting reports are behind their subscription wall, the list itself is publicly available:

#1:  Dustin Ackley
#2:  Michael Saunders
#3:  Adam Moore
#4:  Alex Liddi
#5:  Carlos Triunfel
#6:  Michael Pineda
#7:  Nick Franklin
#8:  Greg Halman
#9:  Dan Cortes
#10: Mario Martinez

Some commentary is probably in order. Firstly, the top three are all more or less correct. You have the elite talent in Dustin Ackley leading the way, then two guys who are close to major league ready and project as above average talent in Michael Saunders and Adam Moore. Saunders I've talked about before, but I haven't touched on Moore recently. He's essentially in the same boat as Saunders but as a catcher, and perhaps without the quite the hitting skill Saunders possesses. Still, he's a pretty good catching prospect (although reports on his defence are fairly shaky), and he's very close to the majors.

Now things start to get contentious.

Alex Liddi was terrible for a couple of years in the MWL before ending up in High Desert, which as we all know is an absolute hitter's paradise. The putative third baseman hit .345/.411/.594 in the cozy confines of the California League, which would be far less impressive if the scouts watching him weren't so impressed with his hitting skills, power, and defence. Still, he struck out too often for anyone's liking, and he's absolutely got to prove he can hit outside lunar gravity before anyone gets excited about him. #4 might be too high for him, but then again I have no idea who else I would put there. Keep a very close eye on him in 2010, though. He's got every chance to wind up as #2 in the system with the expected graduations of Saunders and Moore - but he could also crash and burn.

#5 is Carlos Triunfel, who you've all heard of. Right now Carlos is all tools and ARL, having never really showed much apart from the ability to make contact. The assumption is that the power will come, which seems reasonable given how big and strongly built he is. But the fact of the matter is that he hasn't ever really gotten results and now he's missed a year due to a broken leg. He's also looking at a move from shortstop to third base or even corner outfield, which is a huge hit on his value. I'm surprised he's still in the top five.

At #6 Michael Pineda is the first pitcher on the list, and he'd rank a lot higher if not for the elbow injury he suffered though last year. Offsetting said injury are the truly wicked performances he book-ended his season with, going 44 innings while walking six, striking out 48, and allowing only three home runs, a very impressive feat considering the league and park. He's got good control and surprising good stuff. Again, though, durability is the big concern here. Elbow problems are not exactly the heralds of a long and effective career.

Nick Franklin is the second member of the 2009 draft class in the top ten (he was taken with the Raul Ibanez compensation pick the Phillies gave us). A switch hitting shortstop with the body, speed, and defensive ability to stay at the position, his bat is going to determine his future. He'll probably hit for average, he'll probably have decent discipline, but it's doubtful he'll ever be much more than a ten-ish home run threat. Some people love him, some think that at best he's a utility infielder. His ranking depends entirely on who you listen to, but I'm comfortable with him at the back end of the top ten.

When Felix hit that grand slam against Johan Santana, he said that he just closed his eyes and swung as hard as he could. One wonders if he'd been taking hitting lessons from Greg Halman, who put up a comedy season after being ranked #1 on last year's list. It's really difficult to have 183 strikeouts in a minor league season, but Halman did it despite missing time due to injury. He also hit .210 which... yeah, that's not top-prospecty. I can see him at #8 though - if he ever figures it out he'll be an absolute monster. He's got the best power in the system and plays a good centre field. It's just a shame he has no clue what's being thrown at him.

At #9 is Dan Cortes, who you may remember from not being Yuniesky Betancourt. Cortes's stock plummeted after last year, not so much because his stuff was worse (he still struck out a tonne) but because his control collapsed. He did do a little better with command after the trade, but a little better than 'TERRIBLE!' is still terrible. Still, a good fastball and curve mixed in with an average change makes for a decent prospect. If he puts up more of a 2008 line than his 2009, we'll all be happy. One important item to note is the jump in swinging strike rate after he joined the organisation - he ran an 18+% rate with West Tennessee.

#10 is the weirdest placement to me. Mario Martinez is an ok prospect, but without superstar upside and far away from the majors. He plays good defence, can hit a little, and should develop averagy power, but a lot of things have to go right between Everett and Seattle for him to make it, and if everything goes right... he'll be ok. Strange risk/reward rating here.

Omitted from the list are Rick Poythress, Josh Fields, and Matt Tuiasosopo, all of whom I think have a better case for the top ten than Martinez due to their combination of upside and closeness-to-the-majorsness. Still, Matt Eddy did an ok job. Not perfect, but better than the other 'big' lists (i.e. the ones that don't go Ackley-Saunders-Moore to lead).