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Around SBN: Win or Lose, Boston Celtics' New Big 3 Era A Success

The Case for Ty Wigginton


With the flurry of posts by Jeff, Matthew, and Graham, and with the extension of Felix, the M's payroll situation is clearing up, and by the end of arbitration it looks to be around $90 Million. That being said, the Mariners still have two key positions to address: utility and starting pitcher. Though Ty Wiggington is not everyone's favorite player, he is perfectly suited for a role on the Mariners.


I'm not going to go into the Mariners current depth chart (that's already been covered fairly well on the front page), but I will mention that currently the Mariners have only one backup outfielder and again, only one backup infielder in Ryan Langerhans and Jack Hannahan, respectively. That being said, the Mariners should target someone who can fill a needed role in the outfield, as well as potentially occupy half of the infield. In the case of Ty Wiggington, he would spell Ryan Langerhans in LF, allowing Langerhans to cover elsewhere. Additionally, Wiggington has experience at 1B, 2B, and 3B, and would provide necessary depth to the infield. Wiggington's 3B defense has been nothing short of dreadful (-16.4 UZR/150), but I can't imagine him covering third too often with Figgins and a better replacement in Hannahan already covering. Instead, Wiggington could cover the right side of the diamond, allowing Hannahan to focus primarily on 3B and SS. His defense is not great on the right side of the diamond, but it is a marked improvement over what Wiggington would bring to 3B (-7.0 UZR/150 at 1B, 1.4 at 2B; Note: only 1/3 of necessary sample size in both cases). I am not going to supply Wiggington's outfield defensive metrics, as they are not sufficient enough to conclude much, though we can assume Wiggington to be relatively average in LF.

In addition to his positional versatility, Wiggington brings to the table a much stronger bat than Ryan Langerhans. Milton Bradley will need days at DH, and those days will likely be against LHP, as Griffey gets in his ABs against RHP. With Bradley moving to the DH slot and Griffey moving to the bench against LHP, Don Wakamatsu can take advantage of Wiggington's strengths (both offensively and defensively) by placing Wiggington in LF. Ty has a career OPS of .840 against LHP (116 tOPS+), and is an above average hitter against LHP.

Wiggington is due $3.5 million from the Orioles next season, and given Wiggington's contribution last year, its entirely plausible to get him for cheap. While $3.5 Million is about the average cost/win for Wigginton's projection next season, Wiggington's flexibility gives him much more added value to the roster, given the 12-man pitching staff combined with a DH-only player.

All in all, Wiggington makes sense. He can play a multitude of positions, something Wakamatsu will need from the final roster spot. While his defense leaves a lot to be desired, he compensates for that by playing numerous positions other than 3B. Wiggington is strong vs. LHP, and would be used accordingly. While Safeco would soften his numbers, he's still an excellent fit on the roster due to a lack of right handed bats. Finally, Wiggington is on a decent contract with one year remaining and will be cheap to acquire from the Orioles. Add it all up, and you have an ideal player covering many positions, and compensating for the lack of position players currently on the roster.

Poll
Does Ty Wiggington make sense, and is it worth acquiring him?
He fits the current roster needs, and the FO should look into acquiring him
29 votes
Yes he makes sense, but not worth it
24 votes
He does not fit, and therefore not worth acquiring
20 votes
There are better options available(please specify in comments)
26 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 26 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Seems intriguing...

He’s not quite the patient hitter we need, as I think he’s somewhere around 3.6 P/PA, but the power is nice. What I like is he’s not strictly speaking a pull hitter. About half his career total HR are to center or RF (per B-R) and HitTracker shows that his homers fly a good deal farther than, say, Lopez’.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 23, 2010 1:28 PM PST reply actions  

I'd feel better about it if it looked like he just had some bad luck last year

But that doesn’t appear to be the case. His babip was in line with his career numbers, he hit for pretty much the average you’d expect him to and walked about the same, and his batted ball profiles were the same except that his HR/FB% dropped from 18.5% in 2008 to 7.9% in 2009 which seems to indicate that the reason he sucked is his power went away. Being that he’s 32 with old player skills and his ISO plummeted last year he’s a pretty good candidate for collapse (if last year doesn’t count as the collapse).

by OlSalty on Jan 23, 2010 1:54 PM PST reply actions  

Yea, I would too.

I can’t find access to ISO splits, as baseball-reference doesn’t carry it and I can’t figure out how to get RHP/LHP splits on fangraphs. His ISO was bound to regress after a career year (.241 in ‘08), but I agree that it’s dropped a bit too much for my liking. That said, I still think he fits and is worth it.

Avatars make the site look pretty. I still don't have one.

by perfectstrat on Jan 23, 2010 2:09 PM PST up reply actions  

ISO is just SLG-AVG

2009
vs RHB ISO=0.152
vs LHB ISO=0.081

Career
vs RHB ISO=0.174
vs LHB ISO=0.202

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 23, 2010 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

"Old player skills"?

Huh?

He didn’t hit for much power last year (and hasn’t typically been a big power hitter), he’s never walked a whole lot, and his batting average the last few seasons has been at or above the league norm. And he’s 32, which is getting old. What about that to you says “old player skills”?

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 23, 2010 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

His potential usefulness (at the plate, at least) is mainly predicated on his ability to hit for power

He’s only above replacement level when he’s hitting 20+ HR. He’s not very fast, and while his average hasn’t been terribly low it’s not enough for him to be good when the power goes away. That’s an old player skillset, though maybe not the most egregious case of one.

by OlSalty on Jan 23, 2010 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Not by the usual definition, it's not.

Or maybe you have your own definition. The characteristics of a player with old player skills is above average home runs, above average walks, slow, low batting average. Wigginton only fits two of the criteria.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 23, 2010 3:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes I know

He doesn’t draw a lot of walks but that’s not exactly a point in his favor regarding decline.

And while his batting average isn’t as low as your Richie Sexson’s of the world, it’s not exactly good enough for him to get by without hitting homeruns.

What do you think are the young player skills Wigginton exemplifies?

by OlSalty on Jan 23, 2010 3:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I should have added that Wigginton is 32

And so he only fits 2 of the 5 criteria. The orignial old player skills theory focused on young players that exhibited old player skills. The idea being that as a player ages, they increasingly trend toward those characteristics. Well, he’s 32. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s trending toward some of those characteristics. Even still, he doesn’t fit the mold anyway.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 23, 2010 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

He had those characteristics all along, though

That’s the point, you expect players with that skillset to decline faster, which is why at 32 when his power went away suddenly he was a below replacement level player.

Why do you think I am suggesting he has all of the old player skills, or that it is necessary for him to have them all for my point to stand? The important skills he possesses, the ones that make him an effective player, are old player skills, and it’s a very concerning sign to see an ISO drop like that at his age.

by OlSalty on Jan 23, 2010 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

"you expect players with that skillset to decline faster"

But he doesn’t have that skillset, and he never did.

Why do you think I am suggesting he has all of the old player skills, or that it is necessary for him to have them all for my point to stand?

Because the original theory doesn’t say anything about older players that exhibit some of those characteristics. It was entirely about young players that exhibit all of those characteristics. We have no idea if we can apply that theory to Wigginton, or whether that would even matter. He’s 32, after all. Instead of focusing on whether he’s got old player skills, we should probably focus on his previous record and the fact that he’s 32 and what that says about his likely value to a team.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 23, 2010 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I disagree with that

The overarching philosophy of the old player skills concept is that players who live off of their power decline earlier because power has historically been one of the first skills to decline. All of those skills are related to power hitting. They draw a lot of walks because pitchers are afraid to throw them strikes. They aren’t fast because they need a bulky frame for their power. They hit for low average because they’re not just trying to make contact, they’re looking to take the ball out of the park when they swing. So when your power declines, all of the skills decline and you become more and more useless. There are varying degrees to how much each of these applies to each individual player. In Wigginton’s case, while he doesn’t hit for terribly low average (anymore, he did early in his career) he doesn’t exactly hit for high average either, not enough for him to survive off of.

If Wigginton doesn’t live off of his power, what does he live off of? Nothing else really changed about him last year, his ISO dropped and suddenly he was bad. Maybe it wasn’t a full-out collapse, and maybe he had some hidden injury, but for our purposes it’s not something I would want to take a chance on personally.

by OlSalty on Jan 23, 2010 5:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Nope

Power develops later and declines later than most other skills – hence, it’s inclusion as an old player skill. Speed, defense, batting average start declining in a player’s early to mid twenties. Power reaches it’s peak in a player’s late twenties or early thirties.

That theory’s got nothing to do with Wigginton.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 23, 2010 5:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Whoopsy, you're right about that, it's possible that I have had one too many

Wigginton did not have young player skills when he was young, though.

by OlSalty on Jan 23, 2010 6:13 PM PST up reply actions  

HR/FB rate is very unstable, even for hitters

It’s possible that he’s collapsed, but assuming that simply because of a low HR/FB one year isn’t a good idea.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 23, 2010 4:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Tatis might be the guy on the radar, no?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...

by baetown415 on Jan 23, 2010 10:52 PM PST reply actions  

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