LF Option: Josh Willingham
by Matthew on Jan 22, 2010 4:00 PM PST
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintBuster Olney tweeted today that he heard that the Nationals are sending feelers out to find a trading partner for Josh Willingham. I am not sure why, Olney speculated that it would allow the Nationals to put Adam Dunn back in the outfield which is, well, insane.
Regardless of the reason, Josh Willingham could make oodles of sense for the Mariners. He's right-handed, he's only 30 and he mashes. Granted, he's a National League lifer, so you'd expect some regression coming into the tougher league, but Willingham's bat should still play. His power is real and he's patient at the plate, averaging around 4 pitches per at bat. There would be a concern that he's dominantly a pull hitter (see his 2009 chart below courtesy of Hit Tracker), but he averages close to 400 feet per home run so it's not like he's pulling a Jose Lopez out there.
Defensively, he's no gift with the glove, but he's not horrendous either. Dewan's +/- has him below average by a couple runs and UZR has him around -5 per full season. That's not exciting, but given what his bat is routinely worth (~20 runs above average), you have to take it. Plus, he can even sort of play catcher!
Contractually, Willingham is inked for $4.6 million this season, which might be why the Nats are shopping him. Which would be stupid, because he's a solidly above average player. He's been between 1.8 and 2.9 wins each of the past four seasons and projects to be worth right around the middle of those two figures. He's under team control through the 2011 season so the Mariners would have another season to keep him around if they chose, though at that point his arbitration award would probably be prohibitory.
Add it all up and as a guy to get 400-500 PAs, Willingham would be a noticeable upgrade to this team, a legit power bat that would help silence some of the critics of the lineup needing one. He'd help break up the lefty onslaught of hitters at the top of our batting order. What it takes to pry him away from Washington will be the key, but if for some reason they really want to get Adam Dunn back into the outfield, then get on the phone Jack.
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If they are then it makes a lot of sense for both sides.
Lopez is entering his prime and his contract is very team friendly while Willingham is most likely past his peak years. Sign Orlando Hudson and Ben Sheets and call it an off-season :)
I've always liked Willingham for some reason or another
I give this move my seal of approval.
The best part of this story is that this all may be because
they want Mike Jacobs to play 1B. http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100121&content_id=7952272
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jan 22, 2010 4:10 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Willingham for Lopez straight up would be nice.
Willingham is a bit better and a bit more expensive. It swaps our hole to 2B and then we just sign someone like Hudson.
Why not? The Nats need a 2B, we could use a LF. Lopez is a ~2 win 2B, Willingham is a ~2 win LF.
Then we could snag two wins signing, say, Orlando Hudson, get a cheap pitcher, and call it an offseason. It makes more sense for the Nats then you think.
by BrettJMiller on Jan 22, 2010 5:02 PM PST up reply actions
People,
Lopez is younger (by four years), cheaper (by two million) and better (by a couple runs) than Willingham and the Mariners aren’t the ones with lost leverage.
by Matthew on Jan 22, 2010 4:23 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
Exactly.
I know Lopez isn’t a wonderful player but he’s certainly worth more than Willingham straight up.
You also might add that he’s under guaranteed contract for longer, meaning that you won’t have to non-tender him if he has an good year.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 22, 2010 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
And 2011 is a team option year for Lopez
So they could get rid of him very cheap if he has a lousy one.
Particularly if Willingham is worse than ~-5 runs
In the field. In AAA, he was Adam Dunn bad, but he was just learning the position.
I just think there’s some downside risk here in him putting up sub-Ibanez performances in lf, and I doubt he’d be Ibanez with the bat. It’s an intriguing idea, but I’d have to think about how to maximize his value.
by marc w on Jan 22, 2010 8:34 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
If you assume Saunders gets no time in LF.
And then assume Willingham plays some 1B, I could see 400-500 pretty easily.
Any precident for this?
As a right-handed pull hitter with a slightly below average glove in Safeco’s spacious LF, he sounds like exactly the wrong guy to get a lot of home at bats, but as a basically-full-time player on the road, he makes a lot of sense.
Home games (vs RHP, at least): Bradly in LF, Griffey at DH
Away games: Willingham in LF, Bradley at DH.
Give Griff the bulk of his time in front of his fans, keep the best defensive team on the field at home, spread the ABs around between the three of them enough to keep everybody healthy and productive. Do it, Jack!
I think this is the plan
Whomever they get to fill that RH corner-OF/bench spot.
Don’t forget Griffey and Bradley will probably miss a few weeks because of aches and pains, too.
RH pull-hitters are fine in safeco if they can hit the ball a long way.
Willingham can afford to lose some power and still be able to hit the ball out of Safeco. The same loss of power for a guy like Lopez, whose HR’s are barely clearing as is, would take most of his HR’s and turn them into doubles and outs. Lopez’s longest HR is 415 feet, with only 6 ever coming in over 400. He gets an injury and loses 20 feet of power and suddenly he’s basically worthless (to the M’s). Willingham can lose those 20 feet and still contribute.
by Terminator X on Jan 22, 2010 8:21 PM PST up reply actions
Then there's Jayson Werth
Whom the Phillies are now making noises like they can’t afford. Would cost too much in payroll and trading pieces no doubt, but his apparent availability can’t help the market for RH corner outfielders.
Though it would be hilarious if Jack found a cheap way to add him to his collection of one-year rentals from Amaro, and more than doubly hilarious if the M’s then went all the way to face the Phillies in the WS.
I'd love to see us target Werth or Crawford in the offseason with the money we'll likely not
be spending on Cliff Lee.
Oh man Carl Crawford
makes me excited in ways I didn’t know I could be about a man.
The chances of us getting Crawford are between i and .1%.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Jan 22, 2010 5:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Let me have my dreams
I mean, we got Cliff Lee didn’t we?
Why do you say that?
He’s going to be a free agent next year and if Saunders doesn’t seem capable he’d be perfect.
by SethGrandpa on Jan 23, 2010 12:08 AM PST up reply actions
He's imagining an outfield of Ichiro/DTFT/Crawford
Which would be the best defensive outfield ever assembled. I don’t think it’s a realistic notion but it’s fun to dream.
Seems odd for Rizzo
He’s been making moves to improve the Nat’s defense since he took over. It seems really unlikely they’ll be looking to move Duncan back to the OF. Duncan’s a decent value at 1B based on his career defensive numbers there, if his bat stays similar to his last few seasons. In the OF he’s a nightmare. They could play Willie Harris I guess, with Patterson as the fourth OF. They seem to have a weird affection for Mike Morse over there, so maybe they consider him an OF option.
They do want an upgrade at 2B, but unless they have a better option for the outfield it’s not making sense from their side. Of course that doesn’t mean they won’t do it.
Dunn-K
That’s what they call Adam Dunn over at Federal Baseball. My stupid brain translated it to “Duncan” for some reason. Genius.
I'm sorry but
“[Dunn]’s a decent value at 1B based on his career defensive numbers there” has just been elected mayor of Crazy Commenttown!
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jan 22, 2010 5:33 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
That was easy
Really? That’s the craziest comment you’ve ever heard? You should read the internet more. May I recommend Failbooking?
Oh, and as mayor of Crazy Commenttown my comment is having the Crazy Comment police drag your comment out of its car and beat it into being less dismissive of other comments. That’s how they roll in Crazy Commenttown. CRAZY!!
Great minds department.
Before reading your post I had posted “Right-handed batting LF/DH power bat needed? Josh Willingham is reputed in MLBTR to be available for trade by the Nationals. Signed for $4.6MM for 2010, 2.3 WAR in 2009, CHONE says 2.5 in 2010, hit 24 dingers last season, Bill James predicts 25 in 2010, .260 BA in 09, 12.2% walk rate and .367 OBP in 09 with .863 OPS. He is a below average fielder, but not Dunnesque by any means.” on another blog. I like him as a better fit than Damon or Overbay and the like.
I really don't think we'd get Willingham
As a reader of some Nats blogs, their internet community seems to value him much more than the M’s internet community does. Also, the Nats made some noise about trying to trade him last year and didn’t. I’d imagine it was because their price was high. Take the Lopez for Willingham trade someone mentioned above. I’d think the Nats would laugh at that. Hardcore.
It doesn't matter
What their “internet community” and the M’s “internet community” think about the value of either Lopez or Willingham. As Zduriencik took some time to emphasize at the Benaroya meet-up, in any kind of trade scenario the only valuation of Lopez that matters is Rizzo’s and the only valuation of Willingham that matter’s is Jack’s (and Tony’s and everybody else in the M’s FO). And I trust the M’s braintrust, at least, to get their part of it right (ie not get back less value than they give up).
by wandergeist on Jan 23, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
Willingham
Check out the name of the award John Sickels gives out each year to his top masher minor league hitter… first named in Willingham’s honor. I would trade Lopez for Willingham in a heartbeat. Willingham is well below average in LF range wise but usually is near error free. Long term… he would be a good LF/DH guy that would not get in Micheal Saunder’s way vsRHP when Saunders finally is ready and Griffey is retired. Sign O-Dog to a 1 or 2 year deal to replace Lopez. Ackerly should be ready by then. While I really like Hudson he’s also very injury prone and in my mind he needs rest to stay sharp. Ackerly will win out eventually. Willingham is a very very good OBA, power guy. He’s the cleanup hitter we need but he’s just totally underrated.
First of all, it's Dustin Ackley
Willingham is only signed for 1 year and 4.6 million, so there’s no guarantee he’d come back, whereas Lopez has a cheap option for 2011. By making this trade and signing Orlando Hudson, you’d upgrade left field by at most 1 win, while having essentially no upgrade at 2nd.
Last year Hudson signed a deal for 3.38 million with 4.62 million in PA based incentives, all of which he got. So last year he cost $8 million and the year before that he cost $6.25 million. Seeing as how his performance has been pretty much the same, I’d expect him to get around $8 million again. If you want to be conservative, knock that down to $6 million.
At $6 million for Hudson, the price change from Lopez/Langerhans to Hudson/Willingham is ~$8 million. Given that the going rate for a win is about $3.5 million, $8 million for a win is a massive overpayment. If it was the only option then I’d be okay with it; we need all the wins we can get if we want to make the playoffs this year. But it isn’t the only option. There are better ways to spend $8 million dollars than on a 1 win upgrade.
by Dewey N on Jan 23, 2010 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
The only reason
To get Orlando Hudson is because you’ve traded Lopez away to get something else, like Liriano. Unless you can get value back for Lopez, there’s no reason to make a “side-grade” to Hudson at 2B, especially with Ackley waiting in the wings. Lopez isn’t an ideal player, particularly for the kind of high-OBP/excellent defense team Zduriencik is obviously trying to build, but he’s cheap this year and certainly cheaper than the opportunity cost of getting someone else (next year not so much, since he starts getting paid like a 1 WAR player so he has to continue to deliver more than that). Given the glut of 2Bs still looking for work, Jack would have to use his Power to Cloud Men’s Minds to move Lopez from something like a good pitcher (even though Lopez would have more value to a team in a park with closer LF fences).
Moving Lopez isn’t the goal, he’s merely a potential means to achieve a goal, like obtaining a #3 starter. Likewise obtaining Hudson isn’t a goal, just a means of filling a hole you might have created for yourself while chasing something else. And that RH 4th outfielder is a bench position; he might see a fair bit of time with fragile Griffey and Bradley on the roster, and especially if Wakamatsu sees the virtues of platoons, but paying a lot for your 4th outfield is rarely a smart move (weren’t we deriding the Angels for GM Jr?)
by wandergeist on Jan 24, 2010 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
A side question on range
And please excuse me if this is too far offtopic. Why is it that the idea of Ichiro moving to LF never comes up? I’d think that someone with his speed and work ethic wouldn’t have much problem adjusting to the other corner, and having a smaller field to cover would help lessen the effect of having a below-average defender in RF.
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