Throwaway Lines - How Franklin Gutierrez Has Been Even Better Than You Think

by Graham on Sep 17, 2009 3:54 PM PDT in The More You Know Comment 45 comments

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Hint: It's not just that he's remarkably good-looking.

Tom Tango's recent blog post on the arguments against Joe Mauer for MVP is a pretty good read, which is hardly surprising given the author. Buried inside that post is the following nugget:

However, if you bring clutch into the discussion, all of a sudden, you are introducing Franklin Gutierrez, who has been sensational in the clutch.

Well that's interesting. Guti's been a good approximation of a league average hitter this year, which combined with his outstanding outfield defence has put him on pace for a five WAR player. Now, a five win guy is an All-Star calibre player, and Guti's year has been by all accounts a total success. But might he be even better? bRAA considers his batting statistics without context: a walk off grand slam is worth the same as a solo home run in a blowout. Most of the time, this is close enough to reality that it doesn't effect things one way or another. However, in Franklin Gutierrez's case, most of his offensive contribution has come with the game on the line. How much?

According to Fangraphs, he's been clutch enough to add something like three wins to his line this year.

Three wins from clutch hitting? Holy crap. That's enough to take Guti from being a league average bat and the best defensive outfielder in the world to being Justin Upton's bat combined with the best defensive outfielder in the world. Three clutch wins is the best in the American League by more than a win and a half.

Guti's not just been a five win player this year - what he's done for the team pushes him up to almost eight(!). That's... I have no more words to describe how good he's been.

Oh course, it's worth noting that his defence probably won't hold up, and that clutch hitting isn't a skill. So while it's nice to have what appears to be a legitimate MVP candidate on the team, one wouldn't really expect him to provide nearly the same value next year.

Still. Eight wins. Eighty runs! Thanks to Tango for pointing this out.

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The best part is, his defense is SO good, that even it does decline, it would have to go WAY down to not be among the best in baseball

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Sep 17, 2009 4:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually, Sky pointed this out about a month ago when he did is WPA-WAR post at BtB

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/4/976326/its-never-too-early-to-talk-mvp

by vivaelpujols on Sep 17, 2009 5:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Or maybe he also mentioned it.

by Sec 108 on Sep 17, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's had patellar tendinitis problems this season.

Something to think about.

by Kermit. on Sep 17, 2009 7:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

So all we have to do is...

Sign 6 more versions of him for next year and tell all the position players except Ichiro to take a hike. That $3 million will be easily covered by departing salary, so even eating the contracts we’ll be able to slash payroll and absolutely destroy the 116 win record!

I wonder what level of pitching staff you could run with that team and still make the playoffs…A ball? Maybe AA? If any manager in baseball managed to pull off that team I think he would have to fear for his life…

by Sidi on Sep 17, 2009 8:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Franklin Cutie-erez!

by Joe Meower on Sep 17, 2009 11:17 PM PDT reply actions 9 recs

Is this new? Have I missed this?

Awesome.

by hcoguy on Sep 18, 2009 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fun...

with extremely selective statistics.

I love Gutierrez, and you can’t take anything away from what has been a very fine season, but I can’t seriously compare him to the 2009 version of Joe Mauer. The linked article uses some extremely selective metrics to make its case.

by MikeGianella on Sep 18, 2009 7:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Not really.

It’s WAR including value accrued for clutch performance. That’s not exactly working backwards.

by acblue on Sep 18, 2009 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do enjoy being accused of indulging in intellectual dishonesty

by Graham on Sep 18, 2009 8:14 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

If you weren't such a blithering idiot this would rarely present a problem.

I mean, really. Who invents their own “statistics”? Isn’t ERA good enough for you?

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Sep 18, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comparing awards and World Series rings is clearly the best way to compare players.

by Kermit. on Sep 18, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ERA invented itsself

by Poochie on Sep 18, 2009 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, any time you use a statistic it has been selected so I am confused by your argument.

by Sec 108 on Sep 18, 2009 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you elaborate on "selective"?

Some people believe WPA should be factored into awards voting. If you’re one of those people, then this is the way to look at it. WAR is probably the best metric we have to evaluate a player’s contributions, and factoring in that Gutierrez has come up big in the clutch — therefore leading to more team wins — I’m just not seeing a problem.

My vote would go to Mauer. But it’s worth looking at factors that haven’t really been mentioned in the debate, such as clutch stats and just how ridiculously good Greinke has been. It might not be what you look at it, but it’s not as if Graham or Tom set out to cherry-pick numbers in order to start a PR drive on behalf of Franklin Gutierrez.

by Teej on Sep 18, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

Some people believe WPA should be factored into awards voting.

As much as I hate the idea, even I would use it to break ties.

by Poochie on Sep 18, 2009 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure how comfortable I am with it, but it's at least worth discussing.

by Teej on Sep 18, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The more I think about it, I'm totally OK with stats like clutch WAR being a part of MVP discussion

since the goal is to select the player who was most valuable to his team during the year, context plays some role, and Franklin has been much better than average with the game on the line – obviously you could argue that it’s sheerly a function of luck (and you’d be right), but the results are what ends up getting counted in the W/L column.

by seattlebruin on Sep 18, 2009 10:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs