Zduriencik’s Pitcher
by csiems on Aug 2, 2009 12:29 PM PDT
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PrintLast week, Pro Ball NW asked the question of what characterizes "Zduriencik's player"--i.e. what player types has the Mariners' GM been targeting in trades? For hitters, the answer is easy: lefty sluggers, good defense, advanced strike-zone judgment, etc. For pitchers, however, Zduriencik has been a little harder to peg--there isn't a lot of similarity between David Aardsma, Ian Snell, and Jason Vargas.*
In my estimation, there are at least three groups of pitchers that Zduriencik has been picking up:**High Velocity Pitchers with Height Issues:
Mauricio Robles, LHP, Age: 205, 5'10"; ~91.0 FBv
Ian Snell, RHP, Age: 27, Height: 5'11"; 92.3 FBv
High Velocity Pitchers with Control Issues:
Maikel Cleto, RHP, Age: 20, Height: 6'3"; ~94.0 FBv
David Aardsma, RHP, Age: 27, Height: 6'5"; 94.0 FBv
Dan Cortes, RHP, Age: 22, Height: 6'5"; ~94.0 FBv
High Probability, Low Velocity Lefties:
Derrick Saito, LHP, Age: 21, Height: 5'9"; ~88.0 FBv
Jason Vargas, LHP, Age: 26, Height: 6'0"; 88.2 FBv
Garrett Olson, LHP, Age: 25, Height: 6'1"; 88.8 FBv
Luke French, LHP, Age: 23, Height: 6'4"; 87.2 FBv
If the average scout's ideal pitcher is 6'4" with a 92mph or better fastball and pinpoint control, all of Jack's guys have a fatal flaw and were probably undervalued by their previous owners. Not all of these guys were bought cheaply, however.
Out of the three groups, the "High Velocity Pitchers with Height Issues" was the most expensive--Robles and Snell were both likely the centerpieces of their respective deals in Zduriencik's mind and dictated what he was willing to give up for them (Wasburn and Clement/Cedeno respectively).
The "High Velocity Pitchers with Control Issues" group came surprisingly cheaply--Aardsma and Cleto especially. Perhaps enough GM's are getting tired of waiting for their "live arms" to develop major league control.
Finally, the "High Probability, Low Velocity Lefties" group seems the most interesting, as it is probably undervalued by most GM's. The Padres found out that you cannot field an entire rotation of guys known for "pitchability," but the lefties sure as hell are valuable when filling out those four and five-slots/long-relief roles in the bullpen.
Overall, I am glad that Zduriencik has not collected just one type of pitcher. He has brought guys with very different skill sets that are balanced between upside and probability. I do not know anything about building a major league rotation, but putting together a diverse portfolio of pitchers like this seems to be an effective way to proceed.
* Mr. Shields, I am sorry for stealing your bit.
** The outlier to these categories is Robert Manuel (RHP, Age: 26, Height: 6'3"; ~85.0 FBv), who is most like Olson/Vargas/French group except for his handedness. I have read that his mechanics can be straightened out to add some velocity, but at 26 years-old you would think they would be hesitant to overhaul his delivery.
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Great article. It is interesting to see the type of “fatal flaws” that Jack, for lack of a better word, values. What is perhaps most encouraging is that through all this Jack is acquiring the types of players that excel in our stadium. Lefty sluggers, flyball lefty pitchers and so on.
Few thoughts:
1) RP and SP are going to have different undervalued assets.
2) For pitchers, he picked up prospects years away from the majors.
3) For hitters, he picked up undervalued players that fit the ballpark, major league ready.
4) The pitchers that he got that were major league ready had to be cheap. With excellent defense, low velo lefties that may not succeed in other ballparks are not needed by every team, so we could get them and they cost us nothing.
...and now I'm here
Thoughts on thoughts:
#1: I wholeheartedly agree.
#2: A lot of guys (Aardsma, Snell, Vargas, Olson) already had MLB experience, and guys like Cleto, Robles, and Cortes have the possibility to move through the organization rather quickly and may not be all that many years away.
#3: Undervalued certainly, but maybe not obviously MLB ready. A lot of those guys were not getting results even though they had/have good strike zone judgment and power. There was no guarantee, for instance that Gutierrez and Branyan would breakout when they did. Jack just anticipated it. Hannahan and Langerhans somewhat fit this criteria, too. The tools and knowledge are there, the players just hadn’t fully put everything together.
#4: I still think these back end guys are more useful than most GM’s think, even if their ballparks do not minimize lefty mistakes. This is not a unique observation, however.
You can't lump everyone together
there is a difference in the types of prospects Jack goes after and the kinds of guys he’s been looking at for the big club. This is in part, I think, because he has very little wiggle room in terms of payroll and roster flexibility courtesy of his predecessor, and he has to do what he can to field a competitive team. In the end I think any attempt to classify his type of player will have to wait until he’s been at the helm for at least three-four years.
By the way, where do you get the lefty slugger thing? His number one target last winter was that kid from Tampa Bay (Francisco Perez I think) and Guti was the runner up. He let Cedeno play SS for two months almost and then went and got Jack Wilson. Chavez Hannahan and Langerhans all bat left, but they are hardly sluggers. Ackley’s a lefty too, but he is not projected to be a big homerun hitter, not exactly. Poythress, the second rounder IS a true slugger but he bats right. OK, he got Branyan, then signed Nelson (and Griffey – how could I forget Griffey?) but that’s just filling an organizational need on the cheap.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 2, 2009 1:12 PM PDT reply actions
Good Points
I think the slugger part of that comes from the Branyan and Griffey (after a pursuit of Abreu) signings, plus my vague impression of Zduriencik’s Milwaukee drafts (with Prince Fielder forefront in that vague impression).
Fair enough
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 2, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought Saito was a lefty who threw hard.
Or did he never throw that hard again since college?
You got slurved!
The M's are why the suicide rates are so high in the PNW and Japan.
Just FYI
trying to analyze pitching mechanics and looking for hints of past or future injury therein is a great way to make yourself the butt of a long string of jokes around here.
Nobody – nobody – really knows enough about biomechanics to do so with any authority. The few people who can at least play it off like they do get paid a lot of money for it and are contractually forbidden from posting their opinions online.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 2, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Losing velocity can be a direct result of mechanics, unlike injuries
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
Uh yeah... somehow I read your comment and the only things that registered were
‘injury’ and ‘mechanical flaw’. Please disregard my response.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 2, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions
"Mr. Shields, I am sorry for stealing your bit."
Not a problem— you put more thought into it than I did.
WRT Manuel, it may have just been getting the guy who was the best player in Jack Z's opinion
it’s not like he could just sit on Wlad forever
What if he has a super comfortable lap?
...and now I'm here
But the mole...
disgusting.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 3, 2009 1:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Is it just me,
or does Jack Z seem to prefer white players?
by I Lick Squirrels on Aug 3, 2009 3:34 AM PDT reply actions
Prince Fielder, what a cracker.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Well the players he's traded for in the past month
Hispanic, Japanese-American, white, Puerto Rican, white, Hispanic.
Players he got in the Putz/Heilman deals
Hispanic, Hispanic, Hispanic, Hispanic, Hispanic, Hispanic, white, white.
So that would be 10 non-white and 4 white. Sounds like GMZ hates non-white ballplayers to me!
Which one is the Japanese?
2009 Safeco Field Record: 5-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 9-4
by Fin on Aug 6, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Saito
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 6, 2009 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions
My bad, forgot the rules
What in the goddamn fuck?
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 3, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Woah, I was tired last night.
Now that I think about it, I’m pretty much wrong. I guess my perceptions were skewed mainly by the fact that he replaced Endy/Wlad (Latino/whatever Wlad is) with Langerhans (white), Beltre (Latino) with Hannahan (white) while Adrian was injured, and now Yuni/:(edeno (Monkey/Latino) with Wilson (white). Plus, most of his high-profile free-agent signings were white, with the exception of Griffey.
But yeah, that was pretty stupid of me. Sorry.
by I Lick Squirrels on Aug 3, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you might be onto something,
though, because there’s one minority group that GMZ hates: gingers! JJ Putz was traded, Shelton was just DFA’d, and Langerhans just lost his starting job!
Seriously, though, no worries. Everyone deserves a few mulligans.
TRUTH.
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