Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
by Matthew on Aug 17, 2009 12:00 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Previews
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PrintSeattle: 61-57
Detroit: 62-55
SUMMARY
| MARINERS | TIGERS |
EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA) |
-69.7 (27th) |
-2.3 (15th) | DET |
| FIELDING (UZR) |
52.1 (2nd) |
32.6 (4th) | SEA |
| ROTATION (pRAA) |
-19.2 (21st) |
-19.7 (23rd) | SEA |
| BULLPEN (pRAA) |
-27.4 (30th) | -6.9 (19th) | DET |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-64.2 | 3.7 | Detroit |
Well, the Yankees did not, in fact, go down. Except in that last game! Oh yeah, did they EVER go down in that last game! Take that, Yankees.
I am not sure what the team is playing for at this point. 10.5 games out of the division and now six games out of the Wild Card, behind three teams our even slim playoff hopes are now down to something more on the dying of ebola-level. I guess we could let our remaining cushion of games over .500 melt away and make a play at a Type A protected pick for next year, but I doubt we will be in the running for any Type As anyways this coming winter.
Our defense improved again by a healthy margin this week. It is so fun to have something, at least, be world class. Especially when paired with what is now officially the worst bullpen in the Majors as rated by pRAA. Oops. Thank god Miguel Batista is gone after this year.
Fun note: we have used just as many pitchers in the rotation, twelve, as in the pen.
GAMES
Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs. Rick Porcello
Game 2: Ian Snell vs. Justin Verlander
Game 3: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs. Jarrod Washburn*
This is our third time facing Porcello this season. In the previous two efforts, he has managed only a 47% ground ball rate, compared to his 57% mark on the season. He has also walked only one of our hitters, though three of them hit home runs. He threw 86 pitches in both of those starts and garnered a win both times.
Justin Verlander has a 3.36 tRA even with his 24% line drive rate, illustrating just how good he has been at all the other facets of the pitching game this season. He walks fewer batters than league average and while the average AL starting pitcher punches out just under 17% of all hitters he faces, Verlander is approaching 29%. A feat that helps mitigate his line drive rate and nearly drive his overall line drive amount close to league average.
Jarrod Washburn is like a ten year older version of Lucas French. I cannot believe the Tigers signed that guy to a 4 year, $38 million contract.
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Oh they walk guys and give up a lot of HR's and aside from Aardsma and Lowe to some extent to bbullpen is a mess.
You got slurved!
I for one welcome our sexy* moderating overlords.
Dammit dammit dammit... *the bullpen
You got slurved!
I for one welcome our sexy* moderating overlords.
Considering how many walks they give up,
BBullpen might be appropriate…
Fuck the Angels! And the Yankees and Red Sox while we're at it.
by urchman on Aug 17, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
Ministry of Silly Walks!
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Aug 17, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Except Beluga's...
THERE’S NOTHING SILLY ABOUT HIS WALKS GRRRRR!!!!
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Aug 17, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, if it helps any.
The collective unit of our go-to guys (Aardsma, Lowe, White, Kelley) comes out to about +2.8 pRAA (most of that is Aardsma though). So if we have a lead and those guys are available we’re in decent shape.
It’s the mop-up/garbage time guys that are killing us. Lead by Batista and his -9.2 pRAA. Jakubauskas might turn things around but he’s still -4.9 pRAA. We punted Denny Stark and Roy Corcoran who wound up costing us 14.1 pRAA over 27 xIP. Not sure what to think of Garrett Olson (currently at -0.8 pRAA).
Don't know if the numbers bear it out
But Jakabauskas seems to me to be good for about 2 innings at a time, no more. It’s when he enters 3 or especially 4 or more innings that the suck starts to show. Better as a short reliever than a long one.
Weren't we just in Detroit? Weird scheduling.
I hope you die. I hope we BOTH die.
by BRKLN M'S on Aug 17, 2009 12:32 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
The OF that saved so many runs for him is now the very thing that will destroy him.
That sounds like a tagline for a movie.
You got slurved!
I for one welcome our sexy* moderating overlords.
why? no, not destroy him
I hope we win but at the expense of their relievers or another way but not making Washburn look bad. He was great for us plus the trade was great considering the circumstances. I feel bad for Detroit the way he’s played after the trade and we got lucky, but I wish the best for Washburn now (except not at the expense of Mariners)
Washburn got an extension already?
I cannot believe the Tigers signed that guy to a 4 year, $38 million contract.
Dave Cameron over at USSM speculated that Washburn wouldn’t even get 2 years, $12 to $15 million total.
It's a joke.
That’s the contract he signed with the Mariners.
Ummm I think that was us that gave him that contract
I hope you die. I hope we BOTH die.
by BRKLN M'S on Aug 17, 2009 2:35 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
At least the first four letters are accurate ohsnap
by Graham MacAree on Aug 17, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
So I read:
-64.2 RAA + waaaaaaay over Pythag projections (7 games over 118 = almost 10 games on a 162 game pace) = this team is overachieving by quite a bit and is really a ~75-78 win true talent roster, and we should evaluate the roster as a slightly below .500 roster that needs significant roster upgrades/positive player development to contend in 2010. In a sense, we’re in a similar space to 2007, where we got lucky with the wins and losses with respect to the talent on the roster (with a MUCH better GM, staff and talent base to work with, and less likelihood of doing something completely fucking stupid with the 2009 winter meetings version of Erik Bedard).
This isn’t being a downer about the job Zduriencik has done, BTW. Bringing the team forward from the trainwreck of 2008, this is about the best I could have expected- get lucky, make some astute decisions while shedding salary/bad contracts (and gritting teeth and bearing it on the other bad contracts) and hope that the rest of the division loiters around .500. Unfortunately, the first happened but the second didn’t, but we’re in a considerably better place going forward: a lot of backend rotation talent that won’t cost $Batista or $Washburn, some potential interesting arms in Snell and Morrow, King Felix, Ichiro, some salary flexibility, no more Yuni and a league-average SS in his place, Lopez as a reasonably proven ~2 WAR 2B or potential trade bait. The fact that we have to go from ~75 wins to ~85-90 wins true talent instead of BEING an ~85 win true talent team doesn’t faze me- it seems we have the tools to do this.
by eponymous_coward on Aug 17, 2009 2:47 PM PDT reply actions
Maybe you shouldn't because your analysis completely misses the in-season roster overhaul
by Graham MacAree on Aug 17, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Right, I should have mentioned adding the league-average SS to replace Yuni, Ian Snell and backend rotation talent.
Pity I didn’t actually mention them in that post.
by eponymous_coward on Aug 17, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
That makes the fact that you still equate the roster to a 75-78 win team even more bizarre
by Graham MacAree on Aug 17, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I could see an argument for ~.500
I am a little more skeptical about Branyan sticking at this performance level, maybe? The C and DH positions are still pretty miserable, and the bullpen is, too- but I see some of those problems as pretty fixable.
by eponymous_coward on Aug 17, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I also see Snell and Morrow as "fixable", as opposed to "fixed".
Still think the roster is overachieving a bit- but the distance from us and the division leaders is less than it appears going into 2010, if that makes sense.
by eponymous_coward on Aug 17, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
That's plus 3 wins in the SS position alone
So go from a `75-78 win true talent team to a `78-81 true talent team.
Probably more than that
If we’d kept Cedeno and he’d kept hitting like he were we would have been on pace for like -5 wins out of shortstop
by Graham MacAree on Aug 17, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Is it reasonable to assume someone's going to hit like Ray Oyler forever?
I was pretty convinced Miguel Olivo might be the Worst Catcher Ever™ by the time he left, bu he bounced back after he left Seattle. I’m not sure Cedeno is THAT bad.
by eponymous_coward on Aug 17, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, that says it better.
I’m maybe a bit more on the conservative side on the talent level, but I agree with the general premise. Putting the 2010 team into contention is not as hard a lift as it seems, especially since I think the bullpen and DH positions are arguably two of the easiest places you can fix on a roster.
by eponymous_coward on Aug 17, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
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