Back when everyone thought Adrian Beltre was hobbled for the year, Dave at USSM wrote a great post reaffirming that Beltre was totally worth his $64 million contract. The key points were this chart (based on FanGraphs and, oh, how about Cot's):
2005: $8.6 million in value, $11.4 million in salary
2006: $17.2 million in value, $12.9 million in salary
2007: $12.4 million in value, $12.9 million in salary
2008: $18.5 million in value, $13.4 million in salary
2009: $5.7 million in value, $13.4 million in salary
Total: $62.4 million in value, $64 million in salary
and this line:
He was going to easily justify his paycheck again this year until this trip to the disabled list.
Now we can take out all the qualifiers on those justifiers. Thanks to his awesome week, Beltre's value this year transposed from $5.7 million to $7.5 million, which switches the digits in his total value during his contract from $62.4 million to $64.2. So the rest of Adrian Beltre's production this year is free to Mariners fans. Unless you actually buy a ticket.
Caveat #1: Beltre will actually make $64.1 million, according to Cot's. The only incentive he's getting is $50,000 for each of his Gold Gloves. (Too bad he wasn't the MVP of the LCS.)
Caveat #2: Beltre may have eclipsed the $64 million mark in value a while ago if you use Statcorner's wOBA or wOBA* rather than Fangraphs wOBA. Side-by-side comparison:
Year: Fangraphs wOBA/StatCorner wOBA/wOBA*
2005: .308 / .329 / .334
2006: .338 / .355/ .360
2007: .346 / .349 / .354
2008: .336 / .339 / .344
2009: .304 / .316 / .321
It's not quite so clear, though. Dave wrote specifically about Beltre when saying that Fangraph park-adjusts their wRAA to get their batting value. When both stat sites correct for Safeco's drag, StatCorner's bRAA for Beltre ends up being lower than Fangraphs batting value.
Year: Fangraphs Batting Value/StatCorner bRAA
2005: -6.9 / -3.8
2006: 7.0 / 6.2
2007: 10.9 / 7.1
2008: 6.6 / 2.6
2009: -5.9 / -6.4
Total: 11.7 / 5.7
I'm not quite sure where I'm messing up the maths. Are these not comparable stats? Is is a difference in park factors?
Still, group of Mariners fans who already know Beltre's underrated, valuable, and awesome, you remain correct.