Beltre's finally worth the money

by yuniform on Aug 13, 2009 3:11 PM PDT Comment 10 comments

Back when everyone thought Adrian Beltre was hobbled for the year, Dave at USSM wrote a great post reaffirming that Beltre was totally worth his $64 million contract. The key points were this chart (based on FanGraphs and, oh, how about Cot's):

2005: $8.6 million in value, $11.4 million in salary
2006: $17.2 million in value, $12.9 million in salary
2007: $12.4 million in value, $12.9 million in salary
2008: $18.5 million in value, $13.4 million in salary
2009: $5.7 million in value, $13.4 million in salary

Total: $62.4 million in value, $64 million in salary

and this line:

He was going to easily justify his paycheck again this year until this trip to the disabled list.

Now we can take out all the qualifiers on those justifiers. Thanks to his awesome week, Beltre's value this year transposed from $5.7 million to $7.5 million, which switches the digits in his total value during his contract from $62.4 million to $64.2. So the rest of Adrian Beltre's production this year is free to Mariners fans. Unless you actually buy a ticket.

Caveat #1: Beltre will actually make $64.1 million, according to Cot's. The only incentive he's getting is $50,000 for each of his Gold Gloves. (Too bad he wasn't the MVP of the LCS.)

Caveat #2: Beltre may have eclipsed the $64 million mark in value a while ago if you use Statcorner's wOBA or wOBA* rather than Fangraphs wOBA. Side-by-side comparison:

Year: Fangraphs wOBA/StatCorner wOBA/wOBA*

2005: .308 / .329 / .334

2006: .338 / .355/ .360

2007: .346 / .349 / .354

2008: .336 / .339 / .344

2009: .304 / .316 / .321

It's not quite so clear, though. Dave wrote specifically about Beltre when saying that Fangraph park-adjusts their wRAA to get their batting value. When both stat sites correct for Safeco's drag, StatCorner's bRAA for Beltre ends up being lower than Fangraphs batting value.

Year: Fangraphs Batting Value/StatCorner bRAA

2005: -6.9 / -3.8

2006: 7.0 / 6.2

2007: 10.9 / 7.1

2008: 6.6 / 2.6

2009: -5.9 / -6.4

Total: 11.7 / 5.7

I'm not quite sure where I'm messing up the maths. Are these not comparable stats? Is is a difference in park factors?

Still, group of Mariners fans who already know Beltre's underrated, valuable, and awesome, you remain correct.

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Comments

I don't understand the question

and I won’t respond to it.

by TheTank123 on Aug 13, 2009 3:51 PM PDT reply actions

Plate or platter?

by DCMariner on Aug 14, 2009 6:42 AM PDT up reply actions

FG and SC use different formulas for wOBA.

by Matthew on Aug 13, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions

It's a difference in park factors and also in how the wOBAs are calculated

Fangraphs includes SB/CS while StatCorner includes RBOE, and a couple other things.

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 13, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions

Our park factors use components, FG's doesn't.

by Graham on Aug 13, 2009 4:00 PM PDT reply actions

Why would you correct for park factors?

If you are trying to predict future performance, it makes sense to correct. But if you’re trying to measure value I think you’d be better off not correcting.

by PDXTai on Aug 13, 2009 4:43 PM PDT reply actions

I don't get it.

The value of a run is different in different places, thus the run values of, oh, HRs and hits are different. If you’ve got the data to account for that, why WOULDN’T you include it to get a better sense of a player’s record? Even setting aside predictions or whatever – just to more accurately gauge past results, it obviously matters that Beltre plays in Safeco, and that runs are at a premium here as opposed to Coors or Arizona or what have you.

by marc w on Aug 13, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions