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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

54-50, Chart

8_1_medium

Biggest Contribution: Griffey, +15.7%
Biggest Suckfest: Russell Branyan, -8.1%
Most Important AB: Griffey homer, +14.0%
Most Important Pitch: Vizquel fly out, +6.9%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +19.7%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +18.4%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +11.9%
(What is this chart?)

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Muscle Canyon's broken bat went further than the ball. We need a new stat for that.

In all seriousness, the true sign of an ace is that even when you’re off, batters are still terrified of you. I love Felix. And hopefully Griffey rides this for a while. Six RBI in three games.
Not to mention the bottom of the lineup coming through for us…

Illegible

by kevin_ess on Aug 1, 2009 10:09 PM PDT reply actions  

As much as I lerve Griffey

I’d rather he was DFA’d than start seeing comic strip panel images with bubble dialogue a la Halos Heaven.

by lemonverbena on Aug 2, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Only is Jeff really thinks a player screwed up

then he’ll assign that WPA to the fielder instead of the pitcher. He will tell you in the post though

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Aug 1, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'll probably be eternally damned for this,

but I’m actually starting to not hate Rob Johnson.

by I Lick Squirrels on Aug 1, 2009 10:25 PM PDT reply actions  

Rob Johnson is my butler, and I love him.

He has soft hands.

Listen – we have Rob Johnson and Kenji Johjima. One is mediocre and pitchers love his calls, the other is hard to understand, calls games like he’s still in Japan, but has good defense. Neither is great. Bavasi contracts are like herpes. Just don’t seem to go away.

Illegible

by kevin_ess on Aug 1, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Might as well go with it.

I have a feeling he’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
Meet Dan Wilson 2.0!

"If I'm in a slump, I ask myself for advice." -Ichiro

by Big Jared on Aug 1, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Replacement level

or there abouts. Not much more to say there, and really I think all the intense hate was more to do with people having to come to terms with the fact that Clement would never be a Mariner.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 1, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

finding a catcher that makes pitchers comfortable and confident is half the battle

Catchers aren’t supposed to be a major part of the offense. That’s like insurance for when their knees go bad so they can stick around and play first base or dh.

"Ichiro is death by handkerchief." -- Bruce Jenkins, The San Francisco Chronicle (July 28, 2004)

by YahoohaY on Aug 1, 2009 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

which begs the question

why then give Kenji so much money?

"Ichiro is death by handkerchief." -- Bruce Jenkins, The San Francisco Chronicle (July 28, 2004)

by YahoohaY on Aug 1, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Then I'm speaking from experience

A) it comes down to the number of years the catcher and pitcher combo have together.

B) it depends on whether a hitter became a catcher to make the pros.

C) it depends on the manager’s control of pitches which makes the guy behind the plate just a robot whose main job is to keep the ball in front of him.

D) it depends on the defensive abilities of the catcher. I pitched a number of years in the minors and it’s amazing how an ERA can go up or down based on the uncoordination of the guy behind the plate.

E) it depends on how serious the catcher is about controlling a pitching staff and getting to know the talent available from each pitcher. But that takes time and most MLB teams don’t allow that to occur.

"Ichiro is death by handkerchief." -- Bruce Jenkins, The San Francisco Chronicle (July 28, 2004)

by YahoohaY on Aug 1, 2009 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

look, I'm not about to let you guys paint me into a corner

the game has definitely changed from when I played back in the early 80’s. I played for a number of teams where the best catchers usually had the worst batting averages and never left the minors. Usually, the guy that made it all the way to the big show didn’t start as a catcher.

So, my experience is at the minor league level.

"Ichiro is death by handkerchief." -- Bruce Jenkins, The San Francisco Chronicle (July 28, 2004)

by YahoohaY on Aug 1, 2009 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

catchers then were practically coaches

so, that’s what I’ve got

"Ichiro is death by handkerchief." -- Bruce Jenkins, The San Francisco Chronicle (July 28, 2004)

by YahoohaY on Aug 1, 2009 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lots of guys change positions

I’m not sure what your point is here.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 1, 2009 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here's how it generally works around here.

We take personal experiences for pretty much nothing. If something has a meaningful impact on the game, then it should show up in measurable numbers that can be studied. Several people over several years have attempted to find these exact numbers you talk about. They haven’t.

If you can, fantastic. If you cannot… well, we are not going to put much stock in what you say just because that is “how it was”

by Matthew on Aug 1, 2009 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

And if I can tack something on to this

don’t take this as a stats versus experience argument. That’s not it at all. It’s just that in baseball, if you want to make a point and its a good one, the numbers will back you up.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 1, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Whoa. There is someone way older than me here!

I think I get where you’re coming from…..Looking at catchers more as a part of the pitching staff and less as positional players. It’s one of those gray areas that makes me say, “I dunno”.

"If I'm in a slump, I ask myself for advice." -Ichiro

by Big Jared on Aug 1, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

exactly

the catching position has changed a lot in 20 years. I think a lot of what catcher’s were required to do and know have been replaced by coaches and assistants. And if they do stick around a while in the Majors as a catcher they get educated at the ML level instead of with a decade or two behind the plate.

Which is probably a good thing considering the damage to knees and all.

"Ichiro is death by handkerchief." -- Bruce Jenkins, The San Francisco Chronicle (July 28, 2004)

by YahoohaY on Aug 1, 2009 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I disagree wholeheartedly

While catchers may have an effect on pitcher performance, if it was noteworthy at all a study would have found it by now. It is therefore probably not ‘half the battle’ as you stated above.

I know that baseball pitchers fall in love with catchers, but there just does not appear to be anything to the belief that a catcher can seriously impact a pitcher’s game.

by Graham MacAree on Aug 1, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

He can if he has magical powers.

Rob Johnson is a magician. Look at what he did for Jarrod Washburn!

Awaiting the day I catch a Russell Branyan foul ball. I will make love to it.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Aug 2, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Come now

Maybe – maybe – in the minors, maxing out a pitcher’s potential requires him pitching to his soul mate with whom he has a mindlink that allows them to call a game together and so on an so forth. But in the bigs, these guys get paid to put all that bullshit away and get comfortable with whoever happens to be behind the plate any given day.

Now there’s framing pitches and whatever and that takes some skill which some catchers have more than others. but in the end you just don’t make it to the majors as a catcher if you’re not above a certain mendoza line in terms of ability. Pitchers and catchers change teams all the damn time and you see no difference in their numbers (I’m not talking about ERA here, which doesn’t tell you anything about the pitcher).

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 1, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Looking just at this year, bouncing off a few of those thoughts:

A) If anything, Joh had more experience with the pitching staff

B) Neither catcher did that.

C) This manager believes that his catcher & pitcher call the game, and that the last word should be with the pitcher.

D) The lack of good statistical measures makes this hard to call

E) Rob had the luxury of being the #2 when he came up, and we are told, used it to spend a lot of time with each pitcher, not just the one he was to catch. That seems to have given him a running start when he took over as catcher as a rookie.

by msb on Aug 2, 2009 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe he just means that you don't want to piss off your pitchers

and you should prevent them from sulking and wanting to leave the team. Well, you might want Bobby Ayala to leave the team as soon as he can, but probably not Felix. So in that sense, yeah, working with the pitcher is important.

(This is not a very likely interpretation, but assuming the best possible interpretation of what people say makes the world seem smarter, which tends to make me a happier person.)

by pygmalion on Aug 1, 2009 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Holy crap, you can't be serious...

Are we collectively the butt of some joke from a mainstay here?

Illegible

by kevin_ess on Aug 1, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

What a rare and lovely thing to see our plotted WE rise steadily up

Instead of like the stock market in 1929.

Chicks dig the long ball.

by LauraBu on Aug 2, 2009 12:19 PM PDT reply actions  

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