Do Not Freak Out

by Matthew on Jul 9, 2009 9:22 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps

Yesterday's Ninth Inning:

Fly ball
Walk
Line drive

Okay, yeah, that is not good, but still no runs had scored. Bases were loaded, nobody out and here is what happened next:

Ground ball
Ground ball
Ground ball
Ground ball
(Pick off)
Ground ball
Line drive
Ground ball

Based on the linear weights of these individual events, the expected total outcomes of this string would be 1.6 runs and 7.3 outs. Instead we got five runs and three outs.

Bad luck.

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Comments

Thank you for putting some intelligence behind what I've been saying all along

by calim on Jul 9, 2009 9:34 AM PDT reply actions

Now that we got that regression adjustment out of our system we can revert back to being awesome against against first place Texas.

by Poochie on Jul 9, 2009 9:35 AM PDT reply actions

Bad Luck or Bad Defense?

Racer X.

by InSpokane on Jul 9, 2009 9:45 AM PDT reply actions

Both, I would think

by appleshampoo on Jul 9, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

As I posted on Morsels...

Also:

and

(click for full-size)

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jul 9, 2009 9:48 AM PDT reply actions

Is it truly bad luck? Where do the errors factor in?

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 9, 2009 9:48 AM PDT reply actions

The errors were awful, but also just really poorly timed

Lopez being a bad second baseman and Woodward being worse than Beltre – that’s nothing new.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 9, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions

Bad luck for Aardsma

so he’s not going to blow every three run lead we have the rest of the year. This wasn’t anything like the walk-filled meltdown he had against the Angels.

I never really liked the old tagline.

CougCenter

by Craig Powers on Jul 9, 2009 10:07 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Well, yes, I realize it was bad luck for Aardsma.

I was trying to get clarification on if he thought the errors were really errors or more bad luck.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 9, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions

It still really sucked

by seattlebruin on Jul 9, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions

Yep. No matter how slice it. It really sucked.

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

by InSpokane on Jul 9, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions

I seemed to handle it better than I normally would have,

but I think that was because I was at work watching on gametracker and swearing out loud might have given away the fact that I wasn’t doing anything useful.

I never really liked the old tagline.

CougCenter

by Craig Powers on Jul 9, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah. I was in the field office with three people who work for me, and I almost freaked out on an intern and two lowly field staff who were already in a little trouble.

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

by InSpokane on Jul 9, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions

Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I see this as less than reassuring.

Here’s my train of thought:
After loading the bases the pitching staff got (mostly) ground balls.
Ground balls are (normally) good things for the defense.
Therefore, the pitching was fine.

The problem is that the infield defense wasn’t fine. If it was just the pitching, you can bring in a different pitcher. You can’t just bring in a whole new infield. If this continues, we’re in trouble.

I get that this is just one game and normally Lopez makes that play, Russ catches that throw and Woodward might has a shot if he fields the ball cleanly, but those things didn’t happen. I don’t think we need to blow up the team, but a little extra infield ground ball practice wouldn’t hurt.

by PDXTai on Jul 9, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions

I eluded to this yesterday...

While our OF defense is stellar, our infield defense (especially sans Beltre, even swapping Yuni for Cedeno) is rather frightening. I’d almost — ALMOST — prefer we through out flyball pitchers. But, then again, flyballers’ mistakes tend to end up where NO outfielder could reach them. Still, with this defense it might be worth the risk…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jul 9, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Alluded

by Graham MacAree on Jul 9, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, that.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jul 9, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions

That verb eluded you like it was a ball and you were Jose Lopez!

Thanks, I’ll be here all week.

Once upon a time Jeff posted a diagram showing the defensive alignment for Jeff Weaver’s next start. It was epic and would solve the problem of balls over the fence. Well, at least make them easier to retrieve.

Are we ready to have Julio Mateo back as a relief pitcher? I feel like I need to wash my mouth out with soap.

by PDXTai on Jul 9, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs