43-40, Game Notes
I've always found it interesting how it's the most lopsided losses that make you the least angry. Lose an important game by one and people will bitch for days, but lose an important game by eight and - where you'd think that fans would have the most to complain about - most everyone's happy to just forget about it and move on. Today's game was awful, and observers would have every right to tear apart a disappointing lineup and a bullpen that was all chutes and no ladders, but that's not how blowouts work, and by the seventh I was already looked ahead to tomorrow. As a matter of fact, if there's one common refrain among Mariner fans right now, it's that tonight's game was encouraging, what with the impressive return of Bedard. I mean, I know that's true, but it's weird. Only a baseball fan could find more good in humiliation than in narrow defeat.
- It's a shame that it had to come to an early end, but for four innings, Erik Bedard was terrific. That was as sharp as I've ever seen him in a Mariner uniform. He came out in the first with a really good, biting breaking ball and a fastball that looked faster than it was, and though he was initially a little wild and the Orioles got to him for two runs, it didn't take long before he found his command and became almost literally unhittable. He struck out eight of the 16 batters he faced, retiring the final ten after Scott's run-scoring base hit, and for every single person asking whether Bedard was okay to be pitching again, Erik gave an unwavering and positive response. He's back. For however long he's healthy, he's back.
Of the 72 pitches he threw, 46 (64%) were strikes - 66% after the first - and the Orioles swung and missed 12 times. Those 12 whiffs tie his season high, alleviating some of the anxiety that built up as his swinging strike rate dropped prior to landing on the DL. His fastball location was good, his curveball location was better, and he got a handful of pitches up there at 94. It was just - Bedard was awesome. It kind of got on my nerves that it took him a month to get back from an injury that was written off as no big deal when it happened, but if all that patience and preparation helped to get him to where he can pitch like this most of the time down the stretch, then it was worth it. Because this was the version of Erik Bedard that looks like a second ace. - In five innings of work, the bullpen's RA shot up from 4.01 to 4.28. Perhaps, given how the unit looked tonight and last Sunday, people will finally begin to see it as the problem it really is. The only guys out there who're worth a damn are David Aardsma and Shawn Kelley, but even Kelley's no good when he's not at 100%, and given that his velocity was down almost two full ticks tonight from where it was earlier in the season, there's reason to believe that he's not yet back in top form. Which means that, for the time being, we're in trouble. The middle innings right now are like a carnival ride from a Caligula nightmare. It doesn't matter how well the starters pitch - unless they go eight innings, then almost every day we get to feel at least a little bit uneasy, because there exists the ever-present danger of seeing a night like tonight's. The bullpen isn't ten-runs-in-five-innings bad, but it's bad, and this isn't the last time it's going to blow up. I suppose this is the point where I yell at Mark Lowe for becoming so much worse for no reason.
- So let's talk about Luke Scott's triple. That hit dealt us all a crushing blow - not only because it put the Orioles in the lead, but also because it was a ball that we've seen Franklin Gutierrez track down in the past. Scott smacked his liner to straightaway center field and it got Gutierrez all turned around, and by the time he turned back in the right direction, he was too late and didn't have a chance to pull it down. As a result, the O's went ahead 5-3, and the game was soon thereafter put out of reach.
At risk of sounding like an apologist, I can't really hold that play against Franklin. Yes, we've seen him make that catch on other occasions, and yes, he turned in the wrong direction, but as I've mentioned before, line drives hit over your head are the most difficult fly balls of any to judge, and sometimes a guy is going to screw up. You can't expect a player to make that play every time he gets it, because then you'd be looking for a perfect outfielder, and there's no such thing. Sometimes catchable balls are going to drop in. The key is that fewer catchable balls drop in with Franklin in the field than they do with most anyone else. Consider that play the defensive equivalent of Bedard throwing a hanging curve. It's okay to be annoyed, but at the end of the day you have to realize that you still have it pretty good. - It doesn't hurt that Gutierrez does other things like hit home runs. His shot today came off a high fastball that looked gone off the bat, and the Safeco scoreboard measured it to be something like 420 feet (403 by HitTracker). I wonder how many people realize that Franklin Gutierrez has an .800 OPS. Remember when there was widespread concern that we traded a lights-out closer for a glove man with a bad bat? Gutierrez has been one of the best hitters on the team, and aside from his inflated BABIP, nothing about what he's doing is a fluke. He is a player that we will be proud to call our own for a long, long time. Meet the new Adrian Belre.
- Jeremy Guthrie normally has decent command and works off a fastball in the low- to mid-90s. Today he threw more balls than strikes and topped out at 90.9, averaging 88.7. His heater has now dropped from 93.1 to 91.2 to 88.7 over three consecutive starts. If anyone with the Orioles is still paying attention, they'll probably want to go in first thing in the morning and make an appointment with Dr. Yocum.
- The pitch that put Nick Markakis on base in the first inning didn't touch him. Here's your daily reminder that umpires hurt the game.
- I've never seen anything quite like Ronny :(edeno's single in the fourth, where he bunted the ball up the first base line, dropped his bat, and reached base after the ball bounced off his bat and rolled away from Matt Wieters. I had no idea that you could still reach if the ball hits the bat again after initial contact. That seems like the sort of loophole that Ronny might as well try to make a habit of exploiting. Ronny makes more contact when he drops the bat than when he swings it.
- I don't remember if I knew the name Tom Hallion before tonight, but that was an unforgettable performance. Some of you might think it's hypocritical of me to rip on Angel Hernandez for making a spectacle of umping third base while celebrating Hallion's making a spectacle of calling the game (which you can see here and here), but I think there's a key difference, and that's that, while Hernandez seems to derive satisfaction out of ringing guys up to their faces, Hallion makes his call behind the hitter. Plus there's the matter of Hernandez dealing with check swings and Hallion dealing with called strikes. Hernandez tells the hitter he fucked up. Hallion tells the pitcher he threw a good pitch. One is unnecessarily antagonistic, while the other is indiscriminately supportive. Good on you, Tom Hallion. You make things fun. Note that, when you're watching those .gifs, they're best accompanied by a guttural sound not unlike that of a garbage disposal.
Vargas tomorrow (matinee) in what has become a big game to win. Take it and we gain ground on someone in front of us. Lose it and I'm going to freak out.
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37 comments
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Comments
Regression's a bitch.
Can we put Vargas and RRS in the bullpen too and send down some of the other guys until they learn to throw strikes?
by I Lick Squirrels on Jul 8, 2009 12:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's funny you are so unaffected by the loss
because I see it as the day the pen’s pixie dust ran out. Not that I thought they were some ace unit before, but they were doing their below average thing and getting good results and god knows we’ve seen that sort of thing happen over an entire season before, right Vidro? Not this time. No more Leave Runners Stranded cards in that deck.
The team’s been winning so I can’t really complain, but they haven’t really looked good while doing it. Meanwhile, they’ve looked downright terrible during the losses (Bronx series aside). I suppose Yuni may come back all lithe and feline-like, Griffey may find some left over batspeed in the back of his locker, and Zduriencik might work his dark magic to pull another Putz-type deal. Could happen.
But losses like today’s really showcase how flawed the team is, and serve to highlight just how wrong it is for them to be in a playoff race. A 4-6 loss and we’d be shrugging – you win some you lose some. This was the like Franco-Prussian war.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 8, 2009 12:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I find it more interested that you're so affected by this loss.
It’s not like this blowup is anything new.
by ThundaPC on Jul 8, 2009 11:34 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather get blown out
less wasted time, less emotional investment wasted. Oh well, we got crushed. On to tomorrow.
by seattlebruin on Jul 8, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The :(edeno comment made me laugh
Thanks for a nice read, after such a shitty game.
by Sam Regens on Jul 8, 2009 3:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Griffey
How long can we expect to compete with a DH that hits .212?
by cdsdds on Jul 8, 2009 9:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Stop looking at just BA and the picture becomes a little better.
We could probably find a way to upgrade from Griffey but he hasn’t been terrible. 4th best regular by OPS and wOBA.
by Zwakamatsu on Jul 8, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Overall he's still been a ~league average hitter
the problem with the offense right now is C, SS, and 3B.
by Jeff on Jul 8, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant IsoD, which in hindsight I probably should have pointed out (and referenced correctly...)
but God, if he has an ISO of .190, a BA of .218 and an IsoD of .125… he’s hitting .218/.343/.408 and OPSing .750. From the DH. Wonderful.
by seattlebruin on Jul 8, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I seriously could not have asked any more from Griffey so far based on my expectations.
What is IsoD, I’ve never heard of it?
by Zwakamatsu on Jul 8, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see, that's an interesting stat, I like it.
Also it is probably worth it to mention that using LD% + .12 for expected BABIP, and averaging his BABIP from before 2009 comes pretty close to that estimate, Griffey has been a little but unlucky as well.
by Zwakamatsu on Jul 8, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
eeeh, I don't know if you can expect Griffey to BABIP his LD+.12
He’s hitting an awful lot of lazy fly balls and could get outrun by a toddler with ADD… I think LD rate alone is a pretty good estimate of where he should be.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 8, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So he should have a BABIP of .145?
This doesn’t make any sense. Lazy fly balls aren’t line drives. Helen Keller could reach first if she hit a line drive single to the outfield – line drives are by definition hard to catch and nearly impossible to be thrown out at first on.
LD +.12 is just a simple guess of what BABIP should look like. It’s pretty much impossible to be a Major League quality hitter and run a true talent BABIP of .219 like Griffey is right now.
by seattlebruin on Jul 8, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
By your reasoning
if almost every LD is a hit (but not all) and for Griffey, almost every other batted ball is an out, why would LD alone not be a good estimate of his true BABIP? OK, so he’s going to have a few hard hit GB and some big flies into the gaps…
Looking at his numbers from the last few years his BABIP seems to come out to LD% + (.05<X<.1) so let’s say we’re both right – he’s not going to BBP .145 but he doesn’t merit .265 either. If you go by his recent history his .22 is right where he ought to be. Also, I’ll admit I had no idea he was hitting only 14% liners. That sucks.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 8, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Essentially a measure of how often a guy walks.
anything over .100 is very good
by seattlebruin on Jul 8, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd imagine that compared to the other DH's around the league, he's still above average.
There just aren’t many great DH’s historically which is surprising.
by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 8, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I bet there will be alot more great DH's in the next couple decades than in the past
as advanced defensive metrics become more accurate, mainstream, and publicly available. More and more front offices will realize that putting guys like this in the outfield is a crime against humanity.
by Decatur on Jul 8, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"He came out in the first with a really good, biting breaking ball and a fastball that looked faster than it was, and though he was initially a little"
Post-game, he noted that the difference between a sim game and the real thing, was adrenaline.
by msb on Jul 8, 2009 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think after last night Manny Ramirez
is officially on the Robot Umpires band wagon. He got called out looking on two strikes that looked ridiculously off the plate.
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by bluemax on Jul 8, 2009 11:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
His post game interview was hillarious though.
He was so calm and whimsical. That was a shitty call off the plate by Hirschbeck, I would’ve spit in his face Alomar style.
by hcoguy on Jul 8, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I caught that too
that’s the kind of shit that makes me love Manny.
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by bluemax on Jul 8, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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