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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

42-39, Chart

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Ah, the long awaited shoe has dropped for the pen

What an ugly, silly way to lose a ballgame. Then again, they didn’t have much business winning the other two so it’s OK. It’s going to be nice when Olsen or Vargas can go back to the pen so we don’t have to see Batista and Lowe face a bunch of lefties any more (which… actually where the fuck was Vargas today? I’d have loved to see him up there).

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 5, 2009 2:43 PM PDT reply actions  

I dunno

but with Morrow going as long as he is and Bedard back to face the Os i don’t see where Vargas fits in. Schedule says Washburn, Bedard, Felix for the Orioles, so I guess it’ll be Olsen to kick off the Rangers series followed by Morrow Washburn and Bedard. Not the best alignment for Texas but I like our chances against the Os.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 5, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Eh

Felix-Holland
Morrow-Feldman
Wash-Millwood
Bedard-Padilla

Only the first one seems like a true advantage, given that Padilla always seems to kill us.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 5, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Texas also has one of the best defenses in the league.

His tRA is 5.58 and his tRA+ is 86. Washburn’s tRA+ is 91.

ERA is bad. You know this.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 5, 2009 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

And a 4.49 FIP with a low BABIP and a high LOB%.

He’s not the worst pitcher alive, but the idea that he’s turned a corner this year is wrong. He’s striking out fewer and walking more than he did last year.

Defense!

by Teej on Jul 5, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's amazing

how just a couple defensive players can make an entire pitching staff look so good. Elvis Andrus and Nelson Cruz are carrying that team defensively (though Kinsler has been much better than usual).

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 5, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes but if the argument is over whether Millwood himself is a good pitcher because of his ERA....he's really not

Saying Texas’ defense and therefore overall run prevention has improved is true, but saying Millwood is a better pitcher is not, because his ERA is inflated by said defense while the things he has control over have actually gotten worse.

by OlSalty on Jul 5, 2009 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed, but the crux of the argument is whether or not Millwood is a bad matchup for us

and since he’s a decent pitcher thanks to his defense, him on the mound is thus a bad matchup for us. Were we to be considering acquiring him or something, I’d be running away screaming, but in this case, the defense of Texas has to be factored in.

by seattlebruin on Jul 6, 2009 2:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

I know Wak said he didn't want to put Kelley into any high leverage situations right away.

But considering how many pitches Lowe threw on Friday night, and that Batista is Batista, you’d think he could have made an exception.

by katal on Jul 5, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think people also need to realize that Shawn Kelley isn't amazingly awesome either.

He’s pitched well, and yes, with really good control, but we have a really small sample to go with.

by Matthew on Jul 5, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Woo.

Morning slightly ruined.

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Jul 5, 2009 2:53 PM PDT reply actions  

I hate the Angels official subthread

They’ve tied up Balitmore for a third time, 6-6, and have bases loaded no outs in the seventh

by calim on Jul 5, 2009 2:54 PM PDT reply actions  

And

a bases-loaded walk. I hate those

by calim on Jul 5, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Branyan? Washburn? Aardsma?

to name a few. I am a little shocked by how much Lowe sucks now that he’s back to normal velo after his surgery. Maybe a little stint in AAA to cool his heels and remember how to throw strikes would be helpful… Corco can keep his spot warm for him in the meantime.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 5, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Branyan, yes.

Washburn … debatable, given how he is pitching now. And Aardsma was unlikely to be a trade piece until he took the closer job from Morrow. Originally he was just a useful bullpen arm, which are sort of always trade pieces, but not really.

Everyone is conceivably a trade piece, but Beltre, Bedard, Lowe (?), and Balentien who were all very likely trade candidates are now likely to fetch very little. We always have options because everyone is a trade piece, but I would say that at least our big two are gone, along with a few likely candidates.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jul 5, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

The awful thing about bullpen regression is that when it happens, it has a very good chance of costing the team a game in the standings.

I desperately want to see the team make a trade; either so the pitchers who have been pitching above their heads can go to another team before they come crashing down to the earth, or so we can seriously upgrade.

by katal on Jul 5, 2009 2:57 PM PDT reply actions  

I think it regressing in a game like today is fine. Lots of regression today lumped into one game.

Lets not forget the bullpen was pretty darn good this series given the opponent and ballpark.

Im totally fine with them blowing up today. Let them get that regression out of their systems in what was pretty much a cherry on top final game of a series

by Rudy4three on Jul 5, 2009 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Or perhaps

you’re just playing around, in which case, no harm, no foul.

by pygmalion on Jul 6, 2009 5:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm actually having a blast this season and as much as I want to win and go to the playoffs it would be tough for me to feel prolonged disappointment no matter the outcome.

On top of that, I’m thrilled with the road trip and with taking two of three at Fenway.

But I am still really pissed off about today’s game.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 5, 2009 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm still haunted by the ghost of Bavasi past, that's some tough baggage to get rid of.

Knowing that defense is hard to quantify and responsible for much of this success doesn’t help. Looking at a line up of sluggers has it’s own measure of reassurance. I think the only solution for my particular problem is a good old fashioned revenge killing.

by Kermit. on Jul 5, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think its the way that it was lost that is bothering everyone.

I mean, if Boston started out with an 8-0 lead, I am sure we wouldn’t be as pissed about today.

2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4

by Fin on Jul 5, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was barely bothered by this game

but mostly because I expected our bullpen couldn’t hold up against a very good offense for that long, so I had low expectations. The only thing that ended up bugging me was that the bullpen (Lowe) beat itself instead.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 5, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ronny got it his OPS above .500.

Its steadliy climbing.

"If your good at something never do it for free." - The Joker

by houseofprime on Jul 5, 2009 5:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Tui is back in action

in Arizona tonight. Don’t know how long it would take for him to get all the way back. I still don’t think he’s quite ready for the majors, but who knows.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 5, 2009 8:20 PM PDT reply actions  

Offensively he would.

But he’s just rehabbing at this point so lets just wait and see.

You got slurved!

Hehehe Mark Reynolds is so awesome.

by Slurvey on Jul 5, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Reports around the time Beltre got injured said he wouldn’t be back that long before Beltre, so sounds like it may be a long process.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 5, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's how Arizona snapped a no-hitter!

Walk, walk, MARK REYNOLDS’D!

You got slurved!

Hehehe Mark Reynolds is so awesome.

by Slurvey on Jul 5, 2009 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

‘SPLODEY! … I’m tragedorable!

by oc on Jul 5, 2009 9:33 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm very happy

A 9 game road trip against LA, NY and Boston. We didn’t get crushed, instead we went 5-4 against three of the better teams around…..on the road…..with some serious injury holes. Realistically, 3-6 wouldn’t have been terrible.
And we were in every game we lost except the first game in LA.

"Why should I stretch? Does a cheetah stretch before it chases its prey?"
-Griffey

by Big Jared on Jul 6, 2009 1:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Missed the game, other than the first inning on the radio

How did Morrow look? His line doesn’t look too bad, especially the BB/K, but I know he was piping a bunch of fastballs down the pike in the first inning, yielding the 2 HRs. Which was annoying because it seemed like he was getting the FB in the zone enough to work in the offspeed stuff. Was he able to throw the offspeed stuff consistently in the later innings?

3 HRs in one game obviously sucks, but it’s cool that they were all solo, I feel like earlier in the season he would have had walked a couple of guys on before those blasts.

by appleshampoo on Jul 6, 2009 10:12 AM PDT reply actions  

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