On Trading Washburn
by Graham MacAree on Jul 31, 2009 7:25 AM PDT
in Miscellaneous
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PrintA lot has been made of how Zduriencik shouldn't just give Washburn away. This is silly. While he should endeavour to mazimise value, it's not like Washburn is actually worth anything to the franchise right now. List of potential reasons to keep him:
- Wins in 2009
- Draft pick next June
- Possible extension
Despite Beltre's expected return on Tuesday wins in 2009 don't really matter anymore. We are, for all intents and purposes, out of the playoff race, and therefore winning an extra game or two isn't going to help us out at all. Besides, Washburn's fairly easily replaceable. What's the actual difference between him and Ryan Rowland-Smith except for salary and the cute accent thing? It's not a whole lot, especially over two months.
We have to offer arbitration in October to get a compensatory draft pick. Offering him arbitration would be insane, because you'll end up being on the hook for $12-14 million dollars for a year of Jarrod Washburn. He'd totally clean up the arbitration hearings and his agent knows it. The risk is simply not worth trying to get an early 40s pick next June. Washburn's never going to be a type A so it's not like we're going to get anything particularly shiny with him anyway.
Re-signing him? Are you kidding?
By all means, induce a bidding war so you can get a good return back. But Washburn no longer holds any value to the Seattle Mariners, which would make holding onto him a rather pointless little exercise.
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It will be a total failure if he is not moved.
The financial commitment that will have to be made in 2010 or further (if extended) alone is reason to move him. Let alone that he’s overrated and that potential good prospects can be had right now.
If Jack doesn’t move him because of this desire to win a couple more games this season or because he somehow envisions this a playoff team next year (despite the payroll limitations the recent pickups of Wilson and Snell, as well as the prospective Washburn extension/acceptance of arbitration) he is misguided and it would be a major disappointment.
If the report by Heyman is correct. He needs to grab a couple of the interesting NY arms and be done with it.
Blinking at the 11th hour and just offloading Wash for whatever is a failure too
Getting a couple of AA / A no-names is almost the same as getting nothing at all. With the obvious caveat that Jack’s talent evaluation skills make me give him the benefit of the doubt. There’s plenty of good will left over from the Putz trade.
Maximizing his value is not about saying Washburn is useful to this club in 09, trying to set up for a contract extension, etc. Maximizing his value is all about being able to cash in the closest thing to a trading chit we have this year.
Getting a moderate return in a situation like this should be one of the main skills of a half-decent GM.
Wins in 2009 might still be worth something
I don’t have a quote available for this but I think someone (maybe Tangotiger, I searched his site to now avail) has studied this and shown that even if a team does not make the playoffs, a win gained has a monetary value.
Washburn’s replacement in the rotation would not be RRS but likely someone like Olson. If I am not mistaken, our current rotation with Bedard on the injury list is Felix, Washburn, Snell, RRS, Olson/Vargas/Jakubauskas. As someone said over at USSM: Not having to watch another Olson start alone might be worth keeping Washburn.
Anyway, I digress, but I’d think we can expect Washburn to add a few more wins over his possible replacement and if the front office takes those wins into account when making the decision on whether to accept a trade proposal or not, I think they are not acting unreasonably. Whether the trade proposals are worth the expected loss in wins for the season is something for Zduriencik and his team to evaluate.
I'm not in favor of keeping Wash but part of me questions this statement.
Besides, Washburn’s fairly easily replaceable.
Just wondering how Washburn is replaceable when we can’t find a better starter than Olson right now. Easier in the off-season?
Fuck the Angels!
Sure, but if we do trade him we still have only 4 starters.
Unless Bedard returns soon, which sounds unlikely as he’s not even throwing yet.
Fuck the Angels!
Felix, Snell, RRS, Vargas, Olson, Morrow, , Silva, Batista...
We have some crazy back end rotation depth and at this point the difference between a #4 and a #5 for the rest of the season is like… a win.
Washburn’s ERA this season would be impossible to replace, but keeping him wouldn’t replace it either so the point is rather moot.
by Graham MacAree on Jul 31, 2009 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess I'm just miffed about seeing the last 3 Olson starts
= 3 automatic loses. Olson/Silva/Batista haven’t shown that they can even keep us in games at this point. Morrow is broken at the moment. I do see that by next season some combination of those 4 should fill in the back of the rotation. I guess when you say fairly easy you mean in time, as opposed to right away.
Fuck the Angels!
Right, the team will certainly get worse right now
But like I said, we’d be worse right now even if we kept Washburn because he can’t replace his own level of performance
by Graham MacAree on Jul 31, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions
He may not be easily replaceable in the next two months, but who cares?
Is there really a big difference between winning 80 games and 82 games?
Plus Beltre is coming back. The grouping of Beltre/Wilson/Snell down the stretch will make up for anyh falloff W-L wise that the M’s face by dealing Washburn.
The M’s are still going to win their 80-84 games this year with or without Washburn.
As I saw suggested in the other thread, if you’re concerned about the last two months of starts, get the Yanks to throw in Sergio Mitre.
I will admit
that I too find the prospect of a rotation running Felix/Snell/Hyphen/Vargas/Olson highly unappealing . . . but I’d still rather have that plus a Zach McAllister (assuming Heyman’s report is factually accurate) than the prospect of another year and more of Washburn.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 31, 2009 8:12 AM PDT reply actions
It'd only be for the remainder of the year anyway
by Graham MacAree on Jul 31, 2009 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions
We have no chance to win the WC
and only can realistically can win the division if the Angels fall apart * and * we leapfrog Texas. I’m really surprised people are reacting this way.
Well by hanging on to Washburn
You are pretty much looking at Felix/Washburn/Snell/RRS/Vargas next year
That isn’t all that pretty either.
Better to part with Washburn even if just to avoid using a chunk of your payroll on him next year
"it's not like Washburn is actually worth anything to the franchise right now."
I still find it hard to believe that Washburn is actually worth anything to another franchise, either.
Brock and Salk posted Washburn has been traded on their Facebook:
Brock And-Salk: Washburn traded. Official. Details soon.
Time to mash my F5 button beyond recognition
by ManifestDestiny on Jul 31, 2009 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Luke French and Mauricio Robles coming back
by ManifestDestiny on Jul 31, 2009 8:35 AM PDT reply actions
Luke French and Mauricio Robles coming back
Luke French (23) and Mauricio Robles (20) both LHP’s with good potential for a guy in the last year of a contract that the Mariners didn’t want to renew or take to arbitration. With or without Washburn, the M’s will finish around .500, out of the playoffs, but a big improvement on last season. Jack Z is doing a good job of filling holes with vets who have some years left, and young players coming up behind them . Jack Wilson isn’t the SS of the future, but he’s solid for the next few years, while the SS of the future develops from the minor league system. The change in GM and the leadership of Wakamatsu on the field gives Mariners fans a sense of a team headed in the right direction after the Bavasi era. Stop the dive SubMariners, time to surface again, Go Mariners!
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