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53-49, Thoughts On Garrett Olson

Tiny by Jeff on in Game Recaps Comment 141 comments

On the plus side, Olson has ML-caliber wizardry.

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

On the plus side, Olson has ML-caliber wizardry.

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  • It's weird to think about just months after supporting the trade to get him, but Garrett Olson really has nothing going in his favor. He doesn't miss bats. He doesn't get groundballs. He doesn't hit his targets. He doesn't have a good fastball. Most big league starter scouting reports don't begin with "Ryan Feierabend without the changeup," but that's what Olson's looked like, and though his breaking ball is kind of neat, it's hardly extraordinary, and certainly not enough to save the whole package. What a strange repertoire for a former top prospect. With a lot of work, he's a decent #4. 

  • Between three levels back in 2006-2007, Olson walked 89 and struck out 282 in 293.2 innings. His K/BB in AAA was over 3. The numbers are certainly there to justify his former standing. If something's changed, I want to know what it was. If nothing's changed, I want to know why scouts were high on him. It's just - I'm trying to look at Olson objectively without focusing on his results, and objectively, what's there? If something isn't there that used to be there, what was it? 

  • To me, visually, Garrett Olson doesn't look like a baseball player so much as he looks like an actor. And Amaury Nolasco doesn't look like an actor so much as he looks like a baseball player. You thinking what I'm thinking?

  • Garrett Olson is why people who're new to statistics have so much trouble making sense of regression as it relates to HR/FB%. Olson has allowed 113 fly balls this season. He's also allowed 18 home runs, for a HR/FB% of 16%. That rate is unusually high, and over time we would expect it to trend closer to 10-12%. However, when you watch him pitch and you see him give up a longball, you always feel like he deserved it, like he just has the sort of stuff that ML hitters like to deposit over the wall. It can be hard to understand. Hell, even I'm sitting here thinking "16%? That's it?" But what's important to keep in mind is that, just last year, when Olson was the same disappointing pitcher, his HR/FB% was 9.5%. Olson, right now, is bad, but he's not this bad. Whether the home runs have been the result of bad pitching, bad luck, or both, their continuing at this rate is unsustainable, and they've made him look worse than he really is. No one in the bigs deserves that sort of tRA.

  • What's remarkable about Don Wakamatsu is that I bet he'll still find a way to say something positive about Olson, even after his third straight abbreviated start. Lesson being, make one awesome relief appearance with the bases loaded and Don will forever have your back.

  • As of this writing, the M's can drop Olson from the rotation and replace him with Snell. However, in the event of a Washburn trade tomorrow, then there's an open slot with Olson, Jakubauskas, Morrow, and Fister as the candidates. Let's assume that Morrow's not an option. That leaves Olson, Jak, and Fister. Fans are getting sick of Olson, and Jak has settled into the if-I-only-pitch-in-ugly-losses-then-no-one-will-notice-I-suck long relief role in the bullpen. That leaves Fister as the popular choice. The danger, though, is that Fister doesn't have a repertoire either, he doesn't get many grounders, and his swinging strike rate is one of the lowest in the PCL. So, while a lot of people will likely clamor for Fister to get a chance should Washburn go away, it all likelihood it would just be a change for the sake of making a change, as opposed to a change for the better. (Post-Washburn trade update: resolved!)

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Read More: Garrett Olson (P - SEA), Seattle Mariners, Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, Jul 30, 2009 5:05 PM PDT

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That is an all time great picture.

Seriously what the fuck pitch is that?

Also, Olsen is really high on my get-him-the-fuck-out-of-here list after today. I don’t want to see him in a relief role any more than I want him to start.

by Zwakamatsu on Jul 30, 2009 10:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Is he trying to barehand a ball hit back up the middle?

I usually call those come backers, but while sounding fine in conversation, it looks really stupid in print.

by Kermit. on Jul 30, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Olson as a loogy I'd be OK with.

It’s because he throws a slurve thingy though.

You got slurved!

The M's are why the suicide rates are so high in the PNW and Japan.

by Slurvey on Jul 30, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm also sick of seeing Olson starting,

But as you said, it’s not like Wak has many options.

But what the heck happened to Vargas (whom you didn’t mention)? He seemed to give us a better chance of winnning than Olson, Jak.
(Don’t know about this Fister guy, though he’s got a great name.)

by Sam Regens on Jul 30, 2009 10:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Vargas is already in for Bedard.

If Wash is traded we’d be looking at Felix, Snell, RRS, Vargas and open spot.

by MFAN on Jul 30, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Bedard coming back would be nice

but I think we all know better than to count on that happening.

by Jeff on Jul 30, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It would?

He comes in and pitches maybe 4 or 5 innings usually because he gets his pitch count so high. I know they are quality innings, but 6 or 7 would be nice.

by M'sin.. on Jul 30, 2009 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

??

Well sure, but… WHAT?

Illegible

by kevin_ess on Jul 30, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's sad in a "I believe in a perfect world" way.

But in reality, Bedard has a fragile body, and it’s not very durable either. We knew this when we traded for him. Sure, I’d love him to be Roy Halladay, but the fact that he isn’t doesn’t frustrate me, because I don’t think it’s anything under his control.

by Teej on Jul 30, 2009 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know this away from the subject..

But Rich Harden is actually pitching and not getting injured?

by M'sin.. on Jul 30, 2009 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rich Harden has been getting injured.

He also has a FIP of 4.67 and tRA+ of 109 (Bedard’s is 3.51 and 118 ), has only 15 more IP than Bedard this year, and Harden had to scrap breaking balls entirely because his arm is so fragile. Bedard has been much more effective and valuable this year any way you stack it.

by Decatur on Jul 31, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well.

I was basing the fact that I had seen that Harden was pitching on mlb.com on that he is actually pitching without getting injured. Although, I should have done some research.

by M'sin.. on Jul 31, 2009 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Borderline.

Even with all the injuries this year, he should end up being worth what he’s paid. (In free-agent dollars.)

by Teej on Jul 30, 2009 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Padilla

I thought Padilla had the Swine Flu. I guess he got better. He may still be contagious. I think he should be introduced to Silva.

by uneasy rider on Jul 31, 2009 5:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Garrett Olson HR/9 after today = 2.35

I’m surprised Wak didn’t vomit on him when he went to take him out.

by Milendriel on Jul 30, 2009 10:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But..but...

You’re right. I just don’t really see a better option.

by Mariner Melee on Jul 30, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I personally don't want to see Morrow back until the September roster expansion.

He needs more time in Tacoma to get his stuff together. Then again, maybe he’ll be traded tomorrow morning and it won’t matter.

by Heydude on Jul 30, 2009 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't want to see him back

until he has AT LEAST a 2:1 K/BB ratio, and can throw off-speed stuff consistently for strikes.

I expect to be waiting awhile…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jul 30, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is my thought.

I like Morrow. I really like him. I’ve had the pleasure to talk to him a couple of times, and he’s a good guy. I just want him to buy into and execute what others see in him before he comes back. He can be dominant when he’s in the groove, but he needs to try not thinking as much on the mound.

Illegible

by kevin_ess on Jul 30, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you here. Don't want to see him until he's has a chance to figure it out.

He’s been mismanaged to date, but if he can get it straighten out in Tacoma, he will be fine. If he’s gone tomorrow, I’m ok with that too.

by Sinking Away on Jul 30, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is also something to keep in mind with any potential Washburn trade that nets us a minor league pitcher...

You haven’t proven a thing until you’ve proven it on the big stage.

That’s why I’m not all that upset with the Clement deal and the 3 pitchers involved.

Look at Olsens previous stop in Baltimore. Daniel Cabrera, Rich Hill, Garrett Olsen, Hayden Penn…

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 10:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Prospects bust sometimes.

Sometimes they don’t. If you give away 3 decent ones, there’s a good chance you just gave away at least one good major league pitcher who that team will have cost-controlled for 6 years.

That’s why people think we overpaid.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 30, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look, I love 6 years of club control, I really do.

But there are like, what, 150 players in the Mariners minor league system? And we just had the draft. New guys are coming in.

If people want to make judgments about the prospects themselves, like they just love Lorin and think he’s going to be a stud, that’s fine. But just getting mad about trading away 3 guys with club control is non-sense. We have plenty of those kinds of guys.

Getting worried from a talent standpoint is one thing, but the club control only matters if they have talent and all three of the guys at this point appear to be low-ceiling prospects.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dont feel that analogy applies here.

However, if you want to talk about the Giants, I don’t think they would’ve traded Alderson for Sanchez if he was their only legitimate pitching prospect. But they have such a great major league rotation, and a few top-tier pitching prospects, so maybe they felt they could risk it.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am worried about giving up talented pitchers under club control

Better? They were talented pitching prospects, and their ceilings may be low, but every team needs some low-ceiling guys to fill out the rotation and the pen.

I’m not worried about giving up everyone who is under club control simply because they’re under club control, and I never insinuated anything remotely close to that. That makes no fucking sense.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 30, 2009 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To me it sounds like

“you just gave away at least one good major league pitcher who that team will have cost-controlled for 6 years.

That’s why people think we overpaid."

If a person thinks that one of these guys will be a good major league pitcher (and they would be in the minority, depending on what “good” means) that’s one argument. The 6 years of club control though is a completely moot point though if they aren’t major league pitchers.

Yeah, you need pitchers that are at that tier, and look at our roster: Jak, Olsen, Vargas. You don’t have to homegrow these guys.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm assuming you are missing the word "you" in that sentence.

If you feel that way, it’s cool, it’s your opinion. i disagree and if you want to tell me what you mean, then I’ll hear you out.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

A.) I love prospects and I value them more than the average fan. I would’ve loved to get this deal done just for Cedeno and Pribanic and called it good but obviously that wasn’t going to happen. It would be nice to keep around all the guys I’ve been following on USSM’s weekly roundup and see if they get called up, but that rarely happens. Minor leaguers like these guys get moved all the time. A month ago we didn’t have Cortes and now we do. You know what I mean? If it’s not these three guys, it’s going to be three other guys. I don’t mean to make it sound confusing, as I’m sure it is, but we didn’t give up an super great prospects. They might surprise everybody and become great, but at this point, they are viewed as lower-level prospects (still prospects mind you) but on the lower level. And so I’m okay with moving three guys like that.

2. I’m not massively overstating the potential that these three pitchers will bust. I know they won’t bust. Because bust would imply that they are on the level of a David Price or a Madison Bumgarner or a Clay Buchholz. They’ll either surprise or they won’t. All I ever did was point out a few pitchers who did bust because Jeff’s post pointed out that Garrett Olsen used to be a highly thought of pitching prospect.

3. If you think I’m intentionally trying to misrepresent peoples arguments you are wrong.

4. You are massively under-estimating that I know anything about baseball. And that’s not to say that I’m a sports genius. But you are acting like I know nothing and not trying to hear what I’m saying, in my opinion.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say you were doing it intentionally.

But you are still misinterpreting them.

All prospects are lower level prospects at a certain point. I’m not saying we got fucked here and I don’t think anyone else is either. I think we overpaid a bit for the return we got.

by acblue on Jul 30, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did. I'd like to offer a friendly suggestion from experience

If you get into a position where there is a lot of defensive language/tone, it might be good to walk away for a bit. Take a breather, so to speak. It really helps to regain some perspective, also works as a bit of a cooling off period.

by Kermit. on Jul 30, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And please do not interpret this suggestion as a negative towards you at all

I think you are a fine person, and I am not lacking in respect towards you in any way by making this suggestion. (Now that’s an awkward sentence)

by Kermit. on Jul 30, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The funny thing is that I wrote that line and hit post but my connection wasn't good. So it said "Can't post at this time"

I waited and then decided “screw it, I won’t say that, lemme try and understand what acblue is talking about and how I can clarify myself” and it posted like 5 minutes later.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everybody settle down please

I’m going to bed and would like to not wake up to a disaster.

by Jeff on Jul 30, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh dear.

a failure pile in a sadness bowl.

by royalcurve on Jul 31, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

*yore

;-)

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jul 31, 2009 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never ever want to see another Olson start in an M's uniform.

He has been adequate in some relief appearances, but he must never start again.

by Sinking Away on Jul 30, 2009 10:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This seems needlessly harsh

He’s not hopeless. He’s just…he needs work.

by Jeff on Jul 30, 2009 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In baseball there are very few "Cliff Lee's"

By that I mean it seems like most good pitchers or pitching prospects come up as a rookie, struggle, go to the minors, come back, and soon enough are good. Then there are the ones that come up, struggle, go down, come up, struggle, go down, and it endlessly repeats.

It seems like very few though, stop that cycle a few years into their careers. Its like how I have no hope for Homer Bailey.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And PS - that's exactly the type of pitcher I was talking about in the example of guys that struggle out of the gate but then start to get it.

Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, almost everybody else… and Randy Johnson. You come up, you struggle, then you start to get it. Garrett Olsens chances to start “getting it” are probably all out.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't mean to be harsh, but his starting pitching is awful.

He needs to figure out how to pitch rather than just throw. There is no way this guy is ready to pitch as a MLB starter. Maybe he can be a relief pitcher, but no way he can start until he figures out how to pitch.

by Sinking Away on Jul 30, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ever since the M's got Olson, he's totally reminded me of someone, and I coudln't think of who.

The actor comment finally made me get it. Olson totally looks like Aaron Eckhart.

by I Lick Squirrels on Jul 30, 2009 11:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll speak for Gomez...

…and say, hey, why not give Fister a shot if they trade Washburn. He’s no great shakes, but it’s not like the M’s are going to be contenders this year. If he goes all Blackley or Feierabend, it’s no huge deal since he’s not really much of a prospect. Just a warm body to patch a hole for a few months…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jul 30, 2009 11:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

While I'm up for that,

I just don’t want to see a filler-body trotted out every fifth day to start the first three innings and get shelled. I know there’s not much we can do, so it’s just… frustrating.

Illegible

by kevin_ess on Jul 30, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

continued from above. *s no way I'm going to disagree with you.

I’m not at all interested in fighting about this. I just don’t want him to be the starting pitcher again until he knows how to pitch.

by Sinking Away on Jul 30, 2009 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess my point is that I think he can be a useful starter and he's still young enough to figure it out.

He’s more valuable as a starter and it’s not like he’s a shutdown reliever so I’d prefer he go to Tacoma and see if he can turn it around before moving him to the bullpen full time.

by acblue on Jul 31, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If that's the case (and I think it's at least part of the problem)

then he’s not going to be especially useful in high leverage situations and therefore not especially useful as a reliever.

With the season for all intents and purposes over, it doesn’t matter who takes his place in the rotation and it’s not like they can be too much worse. He needs to go to Tacoma.

by acblue on Jul 31, 2009 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you here. He needs to figure it out. He looked scared.

If he needs to go to Tacoma for some time, send him to Tacoma. I don’t think he’s ready for another MLB start. I don’t think Morrow is either. Give them their starts in Tacoma.

by Sinking Away on Jul 31, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So does this mean we lost the Heilman trade?

You’re right about Olson looking like an actor. That dude who played Harvey Dent, to be precise.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 30, 2009 11:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd be stoked for Fister to make the bigs

he’s the first prospect I followed through the entire system, Aquasox on up. Of course I didn’t follow him because I thought he was promising or had a good story. It was, you know…. yeah.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 30, 2009 11:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Was he a decent lefty out of the pen?

I remember an inning or two where he didn’t suck but don’t have any stats to back it up.

by Whoopetydoo on Jul 31, 2009 12:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I told myself

Garret Olson makes me want to kill myself. He is almost as bad as :(edeno. We need to bring back up Morrow so he can be our fifth starter

by slamdunkhoops104 on Jul 31, 2009 12:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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