Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

by Matthew on Jul 3, 2009 11:35 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 40-38
Boston: 48-30

SUMMARY

	MARINERS	RED SOX	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-45.3 (28th)	29.4 (5th)	BOS
FIELDING (UZR)	22.6 (5th)	-17.8 (26th)	SEA
ROTATION (pRAA)	5.4 (14th)	19.1 (10th)	BOS
BULLPEN (pRAA)	-13.2 (26th)	14.3 (4th)	BOS
OVERALL(RAA)	-30.5	45.0	Boston

Boston is a really good team at everything but fielding.

I know we lost the series to the Yanks, but we did not lose badly, and really, as long as do not get swept by Boston, I am declaring this road trip a success. 4-5 against the three best teams in baseball, on the road? That is fine. Anything else is gravy.

Of course, the first game gives us that best chance, with Felix on the bump. I am not that afraid of Brad Penny, but I am afraid of Garrett Olson against the Red Sox offense. Ditto Morrow, and facing Lester is not a great situation either. Lose tonight and I will get worried about a sweep. Win tonight and there is nothing left but a ride on the Good Times slip'n'slide of grooviness.

GAMES

Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs. Tim Wakefield
Game 2: Garrett Olson* vs. Brad Penny
Game 3: Brandon Morrow vs. Jon Lester*

Watching this team hit against Wakefield should hopefully be a spectacle of some nature. Speaking of, what is there to say about him? Interestingly, while his tRA has remained stable, his 2009 is a major outlier in terms of pitch results. Always around the 35% mark in ball% and a shade under 9% in missed bats, Wakefield is at 38% and 6% this season. As you would guess, the strikeouts are down and the walks are up. In fact, the only thing keeping his tRA low is a flukey low home run rate.

Brad Penny is having some moderate success this year, despite me thinking that he has been terrible. His fastball velocity has rebounded to pre-injury levels and some of his control has returned, though his swinging strike rate remains mediocre. Penny is a fastball-curveball guy almost exclusively.

Jon Lester has been really good this year, his fastball velocity is up over a mile per hour and his swinging strike rate eclipsing 10% for the first time. He has also maintained his strong ground ball rates. A poor home run rate and .336 BABIP is making him look more human than he has pitched.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Pushing the Envelope Extreme
Willimantic Brewing Company. Willimantic, CT

"An India Pale ale brewed with 755 lbs of malt and aggressively hopped with Centennial, Chinook, Simcoe and Columbus." That is how you make an imperial IPA, by amping up the malts and the hops.

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Comments

Don't forget that Tim Wakefield has this season's most effective fastball

Despite the average 74 mph velocity.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jul 3, 2009 11:42 AM PDT reply actions

I'm a little surprised there's good beer out of the east coast. Where would I find this in the Bay Area?

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Jul 3, 2009 11:50 AM PDT reply actions

Oh stop, not EVERYTHING out here sucks. Tons of good beers!

I hope you die. I hope we BOTH die.

by BRKLN M'S on Jul 3, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't really want start a fight, but I would put the west coast beer selection up against the east any day.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Jul 3, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, yeah.

But the east coast has very very many good beers as well.

by Matthew on Jul 3, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions

I would wager that the highest tier of East Coast breweries is equal to or better than the highest tier of West Coast breweries.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 3, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I would take that bet all day long.

They are not.

by Matthew on Jul 3, 2009 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Really?

You wouldn’t put Southern Tier, Dogfish Head, Ommegang and Victory (for example) up against Russian River, Lost Abbey/Port, Stone and Hair of the Dog (likewise)?

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 3, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Not really, no.

by Matthew on Jul 3, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions

It would be extremely difficult to do this with any accuracy

I hope you die. I hope we BOTH die.

by BRKLN M'S on Jul 3, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions

I think its just a fact that microbrews started out here on the west coast.

But I couldn’t say whether east coast has good micro brews or not. I am just sure the culture and demand for a better quality beer is more prominent in the west coast, and especially in the north west.

2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4

by Fin on Jul 3, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not at all sure that this is an accurate statement.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 3, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions

This is provably wrong

I’m not a beer nut so I’m not going to rattle off a bunch of breweries, but last night I was at McSorley’s which has been brewing their own stuff since before most of the West Coast was settled.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 3, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Anchor Steam in SF is the first American craft brewery.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 3, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd take France's vintage over CA any day

but it doesn’t mean there aren’t some good wineries in Cali. It doesn’t have to be one or the other, you know?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 3, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions

I think that if you're considering Lost Abbey and Port as one brewer the nod goes to them

but if it’s just Lost Abbey vs. Southern Tier I prefer Southern Tier.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 3, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think I've had anything from Souther Tier.

I’m massively in love with Lost Abbey, though.

by Teej on Jul 4, 2009 1:34 AM PDT up reply actions

everything they make is good

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 4, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Looks like they don't distribute in California.

Shitty.

by Teej on Jul 4, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions

the secret east

Hey, I just finished a degree out in Connecticut and attended the Willimantic Brewpub weekly. I can vouch for the Pushing the Envelope, and a number of other seasonals there- and the pinball.The brewery is in an old post office, and the best one for miles, but it’s funny you would know about it. I suppose Connecticut is not exactly a secret anymore, not since the redcoats. Anyway, up with the Pub and go Felix!

by goyo70 on Jul 3, 2009 12:08 PM PDT reply actions

I used to live in CT

by Matthew on Jul 3, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions

It's a shame we didn't come out with another win against the Yankees.

If the team could handle C.C. Sabathia with relative ease yesterday, they should have been able to take advantage of Joba Chamberlain, especially considering he that he wasn’t pitching all that well.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 3, 2009 12:20 PM PDT reply actions

Both losses were relatively close, neither were absolute slaughters.

So I take that as a win.

2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4

by Fin on Jul 3, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Good attitude man

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 3, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Carp sent down, Kelley is back.

Baker.

by kentcheesehead on Jul 3, 2009 12:29 PM PDT reply actions

Kelley!

2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4

by Fin on Jul 3, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

I know. Good stuff.

by kentcheesehead on Jul 3, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I saw Kelly collapse in person. It scarred me.

The Yankees suck-a-doodle-doo!

by JamMasterJesus on Jul 3, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

So Carp gets sent down while Corcoran is still here

Yes that makes perfect sense.

by OlSalty on Jul 3, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Bullpen is tired.

Need as many relievers as we can get now.

I only wonder why Carp and not Josh Wilson.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 3, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

I forgot Josh Wilson was even with the team

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by gregrabble on Jul 3, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 3, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

But Corco has been awful

by OlSalty on Jul 3, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

If we're down by seven runs

would you rather waste our good relievers just so Carp can be up a little while longer?

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 3, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions

I would rather have a pretty good hitter off the bench than a reliever who cannot throw a strike to save his life any day

by OlSalty on Jul 3, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

This makes no sense, I'm sorry.

Did you not watch the game last night? Our bullpen is getting worn out. In the long run, having Corco up in case Olson or Morrow only goes 4 innings is way, way more valuable than having a lefty off the bench for the next 3 days.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 3, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions

I suppose, but there are better options in AAA than Corcoran at this point

He has three times as many walks as strikeouts, he should not be on any major league team. You’re only going to be putting him in when you’re punting the game.

The bullpen would be less worn out if we weren’t wasting a roster spot on a reliever who we can only use when we are down by 7. I see your point, the bullpen is getting taxed at the moment but seriously, why Corcoran? Why not someone else who isn’t completely broken like, I dunno, Fister or someone?

And that’s not the only way we could’ve used Carp. I can see the value in letting him play every day in AAA but I could also see the value in working him into the lineup up here every day as well, given that not doing so means Chris Woodward is our everyday 3B for the next two months in a close division race.

by OlSalty on Jul 3, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed agreed.

There are plenty of relievers in the minors more useful than Corcoran. But it’s probably temporary anyway, as I think he’s the one to go when Bedard comes back.

And Carp really should be starting up here more often. I don’t see why Josh Wilson didn’t get sent down, as I said below.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 3, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Wilson is pretty much necessary right now.

With Yuni and Beltre out, Cenedo and Woodward are now basically the “regulars” at short and third, so Wilson is needed as the utility guy. Otherwise, Wak would be severely limited in who he could pinch hit for.

by I Lick Squirrels on Jul 3, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

I disagree with Carp not getting more playing time. That being said its probably better for him to be in AAA playing everyday.

I have a feeling this won’t be the last we see of Mike.

I hope you die. I hope we BOTH die.

by BRKLN M'S on Jul 3, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Is there nobody in the minors who could replace Corcoran? He's brutal/

by Rudy4three on Jul 3, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Bedard will bump him I'm assuming.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 3, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Woo Kelley!

Though I’m sad to see Carp go back down. So much for Branyan-3B and Carp-1B.

The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.425 wOBA, 21 years old.

by Goose on Jul 3, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Could still happen next year.

2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4

by Fin on Jul 3, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd rather have Carp down, honestly.

He doesn’t really have a place to start with Branyan and Griffey healthy and effective, and another few months AAA will probably be better for him than really sporadic playing time in the bigs. But having Josh Wilson and Corcoran on the team really confuses me. I’d prefer Doug Fister or possibly even Nick Hill instead.

by Decatur on Jul 3, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Nick Hill impresses me but will he be more of a loogy like a Potatoes/GS52 type player?

What’s his repertoire of pitches?

You got slurved!

Free Tommy Hanson! [FREED]! Free Jeff Clement! Free Michael Saunders!

by Slurvey on Jul 3, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions

No idea. Maybe JY could help us out.

I found this on BA:

Hill threw in the low 90s as a college junior, but has thrown more in the high 80s since then. Though his stuff isn’t great, he has always been a favorite of coaches and managers because of his strong competitive drive.

by Decatur on Jul 3, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions

So what? Another Vargas?

by SebastianPruiti on Jul 3, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Vargas would be an excellent reliever.

Look his AAA stats this year (over a batter an inning struck out while starting) or his relief debut against the A’s on May 3. He’d get a couple mph extra on his fastball if he only relieved, I think.

by Decatur on Jul 3, 2009 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Mariners.com is a bit behind the times.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 3, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions

I noticed that too.

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed

by gregrabble on Jul 3, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

FELIX KELLEY FELIX KELLEY FELIX KELLEY FELIX KELLEY FELIX KELLEY FELIX KELLEY FELIX KELLEY FELIX KELLEY

In the words of Dave Sims:
“Be still, your beating Mariners’ hearts!”

by Decatur on Jul 3, 2009 12:48 PM PDT reply actions

My first LL post

Bullpen pRAA: I know our bullpen has had some shaky innings and has been hit hard a few times, but more often times than not our 7-9 innings have been excellent. So looking at Aardsma’s, Lowe’s, White’s, and surprizingly Batista’s stats, why are we 26th ranked in this category?

Also, this is not a rhetorical question but can someone please explain to me why keep someone like Cedeno at SS with his batting average when you can pick up pretty much any free agent SS and with a chance to play they will seize the opportunity and going to bat .250+. Cedeno’s probably a nice guy but I haven’t heard of him having any locker room benefits like Griffey or Sweeney.

Since Mariners are having a relatively successfull season, how come veteran C.Shelton isn’t getting playing time on the big roster? I remember he was batting almost .400 for an entire month when he was with Detroit or wherever he was before, and didn’t he rip up the pitchers in spring training.

by fortyniners on Jul 3, 2009 12:54 PM PDT reply actions

Short answer:

Our bullpen has been very, very lucky. Aardsma, White, and Jakubauskas have BABIPs that are significantly below .300, while guys like White, Corcoran, and Batista have been giving up approximately one walk for every strike out. Obviously the BABIP isn’t sustainable, and our success with such mediocre K/BB rates is not either. We’re lucky the bullpen hasn’t experienced any serious regression yet.

by katal on Jul 3, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Good first post.

First, here’s the big bullpen post from last week: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/6/26/926725/todays-ominous-fact – that’ll answer most of your questions. The ranking is based off of tRA (explanation here), which Graham invented. Go to Statcorner to see the M’s tRA stats.

Also, Cedeno’s a solid defender, has a good minor league track record, and was projected to be as good a hitter as Yuni (read: solidly below average). He’s the only legitimate MLB shortstop in the entire organization with Yuni out. Shelton vs. Sweeney is only a difference of 5 runs a year at most, since they’d be the RH DH platoon.

by Decatur on Jul 3, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks for the link

Somehow I missed the bullpen post last week, but lucky sounds right what Katal said for ERA as opposed to the other categories.

Thanks for explanation of tRA, I’ve been on LL the whole season so far but not sure about some of the invented stat categories. This helps. Some of the statistical analysis posts have been amazing.

Yea Cedeno defends well, made some good plays last night. Didn’t jump high enough on the touchdown catch over his head, but it’s ok, Jeter didn’t get the same one over his glove.

by fortyniners on Jul 3, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions