7/29: Open Game Thread, Part 2
Hee.
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After looking at that smiling face,
it is hard to believe he has depression issues.
Wherever I go, that's where I am.
by Rich Langford on Jul 29, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Jack Wilson looks not dangerous
Try not to take me too seriously
You guys are all so racist.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 29, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
So is it just me?
Or is Ichiro using a more crouched and slightly open stance than usual… I always remember him standing a little taller and closed off (I could just be retarded)
Also
Bunt here?
Formerly Mariners124M... Username was sorta bland, so I'm changin it up
I wonder is Jack Wilson will walk out to Josh Grobin.
2009 Safeco Field Record: 5-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 9-4
I am sorry you know that.
Wherever I go, that's where I am.
by Rich Langford on Jul 29, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Is Wilson gonna come running in and hit Silva with a steel chair?
FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Goose on Jul 29, 2009 3:25 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Ive never seen to eyes so close together.
by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 29, 2009 3:25 PM PDT reply actions
Are you an optomitrist?
Try not to take me too seriously
Ugh how did he not score on that?
Please don’t fuck this up Griffey
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY
GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
GRIFFEY'S BACK
I CAN’T WAIT FOR BOBBLEHEAD NIGHT!
GRIFFEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEY
2009 Safeco Field Record: 5-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 9-4
How can Griffey look so lost for a month? Then comes up with two of his best swings of the year
off Halladay?
THE BEST PITCHER ON THE MARKET IS JARROD FUCKING WASHBURN TAKE THAT AND REWIND IT BACK YOU CHUBHUNTERS
by abender20 on Jul 29, 2009 3:27 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Does he pitch the eighth?
I trust him more than anyone in our pen.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 29, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
With 89 pitches, I can imagine him coming back in.
The 7th sucked but other than that he’s been good.
by appleshampoo on Jul 29, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
2 doubles for the griff.
He didn’t even have to run that hard. .. or Wilson could be Griffey knees for an inning
Fuck, the EQC says that was a ball.
2009 Safeco Field Record: 5-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 9-4
It's sad that Shelton had to be in the lineup today
Try not to take me too seriously
It's definitely not a strike
But he’s been calling it all night
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
Thanks for banning me for awhile there for not using the subject line. At another sbnation site no one uses it except for exclamations. Sorry I wasn’t in the know there. Now bite it.
Emerald City Funk Machine
It's been real.
Later gator.
...and now I'm here
Buffalo Rumblings is solid...more or less the football version of this site...
by SebastianPruiti on Jul 29, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
This is why I don't hang out at too many of the other SBN blogs
for teams I like. They’re just so painful to read.
Not that I’m a UW fan but I remember trying to read the UW blog and the lack of comment reply going on just drove me nuts.
[DELETED ZOMG NO POLITICS]
Bloggingtheboys is very solid.
Stats oriented like LL.
by houseofprime on Jul 29, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Watching Romo drop that snap live in person may have been the greatest sporting event I've ever attended.
Baseball will always be my first love but sweet jesus that was awesome.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I am so glad that I finally have an answer to this question.
(Sounders equalizer in US Open Cup Semi)
At least until I forget it again, but I could not pick out anything that trumped that before.
The only good football blog is Field Gulls
And our readers are out of control half the time. Though it has gotten better.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm being generous.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jul 29, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
In September FG will be so bad. :(
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Because of the lack of a running game?
I feel your pain.
by lemonverbena on Jul 29, 2009 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I think we will be surprised by our running game this year. Our starting 5 O-Linemen won't be on injured reserve to start the year.
Also, Julius and TJ are better than Hawks fans think. I think 7-9 is a worst case scenario, 12-4 is a best-case. I would not be shocked at all if we made it back to the playoffs. After all, how likely is it that we’ll lose our top 7 receivers, all 5 of our linemen, our starting QB for 8 games, our 2nd QB for 1 game, two of our LBs for 3 games, etc etc etc. for the rest of the year? The 2008 Seahawks, as referenced on FG, were historically unlucky with injuries.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with pretty much all of that. I think we'll be +/- 10 wins.
But I’m far from convinced that the RBs are sufficient for doing anything other than sneaking us into the playoffs.
by lemonverbena on Jul 29, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh they're not great by any means.
I expect league-average production out of them. Maybe 4.0 YPC, 15 TDs from the total group, and 1,700 yards? If Hass returns to moderate form, and the Defense improves, that’s enough for 7-11 wins with 6 as a worst case and 12 as a best case.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Uh. FG has pretty shitty commenters.
And I realize I myself am a shitty commenter probably 2/3 of the time. But you, JM, and Doug keep the main page content so good that I can’t stop reading.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
You should have been banned just for liking the Thunder
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes I wonder how someone can see a subject line used on 1000 comments in game threads
then get warned about how we use it here, and then still not think they need to use it. Thousands and thousands of comments, each one with the subject line, and they act like this is totally new and we are picking on them.
...and now I'm here
LL doesn't judge a man by the color of his skin
It judges him by how well it can see him in the dark when he smiles
by lemonverbena on Jul 29, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
There are guides here.
Have fun no longer needing them.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 29, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Can anyone come up with any lineage where Jack Wilson knows somebody in the clubhouse?
by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 29, 2009 3:33 PM PDT reply actions
I just think its possible he's sitting there like the new kid in class, not knowing anyone, and hoping to talk to the cute girl. (Gutierrez)
by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 29, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
This is exactly what I envision happening
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Then he will ask Guti out on a date to play baseball
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
But it will be interrupted by other, mean baseball players who want to drink Guti's blood
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Then they'll go on a wild chase down the Pacific Coast
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Climaxing in an epic fight between the mean baseball players and Wilson in an abandoned dance studio
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
You've thought about this a lot more than I have...
But I appreciate it. I just hope that they win the big game in the end, down 7 runs in the 6th inning, but dammit they won’t give up.
We’re gonna need a montage.
by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 29, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm like 96.5% certain this was a Twilight reference
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
You're 196.5% certain?
I question your mathematics
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I would never get a Twilight reference.
Full Moon on the other hand, Im all over that.
by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 29, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Jack Wilson's mom's recorded voice will be used as bait
Try not to take me too seriously
I think Sweeney babysat his dog once
Grifey tickled him at the Allstar game I think
He'd be a good basketball player
Triple double
Take the "IFFEY" out of GRRRRRRIFFEY and you just get "GRRRRRRR"
This is the greatest composition I have ever authored.
by Attractive Nuisance on Jul 29, 2009 3:35 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Add the "Eat" to the "GRRRRRRRR" and you get "GRRRRRRRRRRREAT!"
...and now I'm here
Wow,
I can’t believe I missed that one. You are amazing just like me.
by Attractive Nuisance on Jul 29, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions
If you take the fe out of felix and take the nandez out of hernandez, you get lix her.
by M'sin.. on Jul 29, 2009 3:38 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
We protect Eyebrows like a sacred cow around here
by seattlebruin on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Who will be sacrificed to the demons in control of the Angels.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah that'll work well for you.
Look what happened when we sacrificed Adenhart.
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jul 29, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
He made this joke for the firast time in May.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 29, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
And you wonder why the Angels never lose...>_>
#34 Forever
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!
Because their clubhouse chemistry got so much better without Adenhart in it?
by Matthew on Jul 29, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Guess so. Congrats on your win tonight.
#34 Forever
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!
If your eyes are smelly and on fire maybe you should wash them
with some cool water. Try to not get any soap in them.
angels fan in seattle
Okay, now I need to go to White Castle.
by Susheel Ramasahayam on Jul 29, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Methinks Lowe should demand Kenji
as his personal catcher…
Fast ball... faster Ball... Fastest Ball
Line out to guti
Hammerin' Jack is up woohoo
Looks like they got Bruce Lee’s son to pitch the 8th
I've been out all evening and have missed two trades and a game?!
What is the general feeling of the trades? First glance, looks like an unusual trade considering our position as reloading?
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
I like em
Not as much as the dreamy thoughts we hoped for but I think definitely upgraded
I think Dave pretty much sums up my feelings.
by Susheel Ramasahayam on Jul 29, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
What did he say? I have to shoot in a few mins...
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
How did we get so many hits against Roy???
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on Jul 29, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Am I foolish for not being disappointed with Wilson and Snell for a 26-year old with no position, a MIF who can't hit, and 3 maybe-they-will or maybe-they-won't A-ballers?
Honestly, I’m happy we’re winning without our new talent, and I think the deal is a slight M’s win, though not a great deal for us. But honestly…we’re beating Roy Halladay right now. And we got a high K reliever for a reclamation project like Wlad. We may have given up too much quantity, but I really feel like we gave up high-risk, high reward, for medium risk, medum/high-reward (Snell being the high reward) am I wrong?
Also, holy crap we are winning against Roy Halladay while starting Chris Woodward at SS and Junior doubled in the go-ahead runs. I feel getting a true MLB SS, a 3-4 SP for high-risk high-reward guys, and winning against Halladay with our over the hill DH delivring the big blow is a great day overall.
Also, why is Branyan sitting two straight days? Is he hurt? My news search is in German today and will be in Italian tomorrow, so it’s hard to understand what’s going on. A little help, guys?
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
I agree with you about the trade
It’s not something that I’m really excited about, but I thought we did okay.
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
That's pretty much my thought. We got real upgrades at positions of need.
But, we may have gave up a little too much. However, it’s not a huge loss. We improved 2009 and 2010 at the cost of hurting ourselves in 2011 and 12 if the three A-ballers pan out. However, if they don’t we win the deal outright. Though I know evaluating deals at the time in better than evaluating them in retrospect.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Treating the A-ballers as irrelevent is as short sighted as people who think prospects don't matter in trades
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
You could probably have squeezed one league average starter out of the three
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's rephrase this:
I think that the value of that package will likely be around the equivalent of a league average starting pitcher for six years. This includes all of them as relievers, two of them as #4s, etc.
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that's a stretch.
90th percentile you get two of ‘em. Lorin/Pribanic weren’t getting GBs with like 85 MPH fbs.
Two #4s is possible. Maybe not exactly likely, but….
Pribanic was also running below average K rates in A ball as a college arm.
I liked him, but I don’t have high hopes for him.
If it was Adcock + one of Pribanic or Lorin, I think this would be looking like an even trade.
I'd be happier with that
But I just can’t believe the Pirates had the leverage to demand this much. Snell told them he had no desire to pitch for them anymore. And they got ALL of Adcock/Pribanic/Lorin?
You’re right about Pribanic of course, but I think he made immense strides this year, and I feel there’s more projection there. He’s just not a finished/polished product. That and, uh, TONS of ground balls.
Didn't Jeff Weaver get a bunch of ground balls?
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jul 29, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Buds, Paul. Buds.
He was a fan of freshly ground bud, and always knew where to find some. But no, he wasn’t a GB pitcher.
That was my thought as well.
Pittsburgh will be happy if one of the three turns into a league average starter. If two pan out, we lose the deal. If three pan out, we did terrible in the deal. I guess the way I see it is, even if one pans out, we win. If two pan out, we lose slightly. If three pan out, we lose a lot. But at the time, if it’s not a slight M’s win, it’s a slight Pirates win. It’s not too lopsided in either team’s favor.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not calling them irrelevant.
I guess I feel that A-Ballers that are not blue chippers have upside as 3 starters if they completely pan out, 4-5 starters if they reach their mean, and are AAAA guys if they don’t. I feel they have value, but they are not extremely likely to reach their full potential.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Results based analysis.
You’re better than that, Brett!
Well here's how I think it is.
Results wise, our 3 A-Ballers have done really well. However, looking at the track records of most A-Ballers, they’re not likely to become more than 3, 4, or 5 starters, if they make the majors at all. Clement will likely be an ~.800 OPS bat, Cedeno will be .600-700 with good D. The A-Ballers…I don’t feel too bad losing them. I feel a bit bad losing THREE of them. However, odds are, based on past history, only one of them is likely to pan out. At least, that’s how it feels. I have no problem admitting I’m wrong if people can provide evidence otherwise about A-Baller’s success (J/M/G?) but I feel that Pittsburgh is hoping that Clement hits, Cedeno is around a .700 OPS, not .600, and one of the three P’s pans out. I do think that is a tall order. I don’t think that’s results based. I don’t think it’s a steal for the M’s. But I really don’t think it’s bad for the M’s either.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
If only one of them is likely to pan out they have a 33% success rate.
67%^3=30% which would therefore be the likelihood of none of them panning out per your suggestion.
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure. But even if they have 30% success rate (if that's how I'm to understand it, I've had a bit to drink so I'm sorry if I don't
I don’t think that’s a bad deal for the M’s.
WIlson is what, a 1.5-2.5 win player? Snell may have upside as a 3.50 FIP (I mean, he’s young and around 4.30 career), 4.20 tRA guy? I think we’re going for risk as much as the Pirates. We gave up a quantity of potentially good players for a few guys that our (fairly smart) FO thinks may give us a bit more value. I think part of my optimism may be just blind trust in Jack Z, but I really don’t think it’s a bad deal. We’re not ripping the Pirates off, but it’s in the realm of slight M’s win to slight M’s loss. I don’t feel bad about the deal.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Um. Cost? Years of team control?
Some of these things are important
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I understand that.
However, if they end up being #5 arms/RPs, a not unlikely scenario, how bad is it? If we lose 5 years of middle relivers and/or a #5 starter, how bad is that? Jack has assembled pretty good #5 arms and MRPs for pretty much nothing. I know we’ve only had three averageish RPs by FIP (White, Lowe, Aardsma) but getting #5’s/RPs under team control for a small amount of money doesn’t look like something that Z is bad at. I guess that’s why I’m not worried. I feel like he can replace this loss fairly cheaply. Yeah, we may have lost a #3 starter if Lorin totally pans out. But we have to keep risk in mind. And if he becomes a #3 starter, I will cheerfully admit that Z blew it, hard, on this deal. I just don’t see the risk/reward possibility as that bad on the three A arms. I keep saying—it’s not a GREAT deal. But to say it’s bad is overstating it, really. For it to be bad, the A-ball arms would have to become more than cheap #5’s or decent Middle relievers. It’s possible they will become more than that. But based on what I’ve seen of pitching prospects in my day, I really just expect the least from pitching prospects. That’s probably wrong of me to do. I think not hating,but not loving the deal is about right. It’s a good return that may look below average later. But it’s not a deal we’ll rue in the future, I don’t think.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions
There was a quote in this weeks ESPN the magazine about how scouts have a term that goes something like "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect"
Because so few ever do what they’re supposed to do.
by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 30, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
*If* Snell works out, and is a 4.2 tRA guy
(and please note his career tRA is closer to 5, though there were extenuating circumstances like he hated everyone), we’ll be paying him $4.25 million next year and then a club option at $6.75m the year after.
IF we want our 1.5-2.5 WAR SS in Wilson, we’ll need to pay him $8.4M.
That’s what happens if everything works out. That’s not a terrible outcome or anything, but we traded ‘a ballers’ and Clement and Cedeno for a moderate chance of paying players around what they’re worth. Huh.
I haven't looked up Snell's tRA today, so I admit that I'm ignorant to that.
However his FIP is pretty solid. I’ll discuss this more tomorrow afternoon however. It’s 1:30 am here and I have to sleep.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
His FIP is around league averageish
It was 4.57 in ‘08 and 4.57 in ’09. Again, we seem to be betting on the notion that he’s much more like his career year in ‘07 (4.01 FIP), and that he’s been walking the world because he’s mad at Pittsburgh.
I’ve got no problem with that – he seems talented and all. But again, IF he’s able to pull it together a bit and get to league average in the AL (which would take a lot of improvement), then…. he’ll be paid exactly what he’s worth.
Again, he’s a good risk, but Pitt. had no leverage with him, and we seemed to give up a lot in order to assume that risk.
it's an annoying trade because it feels like we could have gotten more.
But because the pirates are also essentially paying their contracts the rest of the year, it’s not that bad. Wlad’s kind of sucks, but whatever. Also Branyan has back tightness.
...and now I'm here
I also feel like we could've gotten more.
But I trust Jack to make the best trade available to us at the time. I feel if he could’ve brought back a Brignac/Kazmir package, he would’ve done it.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I totally agree that Z would have taken Brignac/Kazmir had he been able to at a reasonable cost
That’s why Z is still cool
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
I trust you then.
I guess I just feel that unless two of Pribanic, Lorin, and Adcock actually pan out, we win. I’ve heard people say that Jeffie’s upside is .275/.360/.475…and as a catcher, that’s great, but as a 1B, not so much. Also, Cedeno is what, a 1-2 WAR player? I guess the reason I see it as a slight M’s win—at least for now—is because we gave up guys who may or may not make it to the bigs for guys who are sure upgrades now. I love me some prospects, but it seems we gave up C+ to B prospects, not A prospects to get solid MLB players now. And as much as I love Jeffie, I don’t see him as more than a B prospect. But I’d love to hear a more detailed take from you—I know I’m not half the analyst you are. Let me know why you think what you do? I’ve heard Jeff’s take, but I’d love to hear yours as well.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
If Adam Jones and Chris Tillman had busted the Bedard trade was great
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Why does everyone care that we gave up two A-ballers in that deal?
Tillman’s ERA was over five!
In High Desert and his other numbers and rates suggested that he would do better.
You got slurved!
The M's are why the suicide rates are so high in the PNW and Japan.
Dammit... I suck
You got slurved!
The M's are why the suicide rates are so high in the PNW and Japan.
I think this is different...
Lorin, Pribanic, and Adcock are high-risk, high reward guys. People knew Jones would be good. They knew Tillman would likely at least be not-terrible. I don’t see this package as comparable, because the three arms we gave up are all high risk, being in A-ball and all. As I’ve said, I don’t think this is an outright win for the M’s. But it’s not a loss. For 2009 and 10, it’s probably a wash or slight win. But you have to factor the risk of the A-Ballers we gave up as well as the reward. Like I’ve said, you’re a better analyst than I, but I don’t seriously believe that we overpaid drastically. Maybe a little. But not a lot.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Just because they are higher risk does not mean you suddenly don't care until you see their careers
It doesn’t make them innately valueluess
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
He's not saying they are valueless.
Just riskier.
By saying that we'll have to wait and see how they pan out he is clearly saying he is unable to value them as we stand
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, what I've been trying to communicate (poorly, probably) is that Jack may not feel that they are likely to reach their potential.
If he’s wrong on them, well, we didn’t do too well in this deal. But if he’s right, we did. At the time of the deal, we are either slight winners or slight losers in my eyes. But I think Jack knows how to evaluate players, and the risk is probably why he was willing to trade them.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly. They have value, and I recognize that.
But how many A-Ballers of that profile pan out? I think Jack Z is just hoping that they don’t pan out to improve for the next two years. Yes, it sucks to lose them, but I think he’s taking less risk for a higher chance of medium to above average reward.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh I care about their careers.
I’m not jumping for joy over the deal. But realistically, it’s unlikely that all three of the a-ballers pan out. If Clement becomes an .830 OPS 1B, and Ronny reaches a .700 OPS true talent level, and two of the three A-Ballers pan out then Pittsburgh won the deal. However, it has seemed in the past that high risk a-ballers don’t often pan out. If they do, results wise, we lose. I think Jack Z’s line of thinking is, however, that it’s not likely that all three pan out, and we’re adding wins against high risk A-Baller’s panning out. Like I said, it’s not a great deal, but I just feel it’s wrong to lament it as a BAD deal.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
How many WAR do you think Wilson/Snell will provide next year?
Is that worth losing 6 years of Clement and the probability of getting some contribution for the pitchers?
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions
And how much will we pay them next year?
It’s sporting of Pittsburgh to throw in money for 09 (which is more than half over), but that’s not the point.
Best-case scenario?
Wilson is worth 2.5 WAR with a great year, and Snell is worth 3.0 WAR. Best-case scenario. At worst, Wilson is what, 1.5, and Snell is 2.0?
I love Clement. I almost bought a jersey. If he has a great year, he’s worth what, 3.0 WAR as a 1B? His bat is great for a catcher and average for a 1B as far as I’ve been told from great SABR analysts like you and J/M and Dave.
Cedeno? 1.5 if he can get to a .300 wOBA and play similar defense?
The 3 A-Ball arms are nice. But Lorin is a 3.0 WAR guy if all pans out, Adcock about the same, and Pribanic around 2.0? That’s if they reach their absolute upside, right? At least, that’s how I seem to interpret it from what I’ve read. Maybe I’m wrong. But it seems like, for 2009 and 2010, we win the deal. It’s possible Pittsburgh gets better value. But if we get 2 wins from Snell and Wilson this year, and 5 wins from the two next year, it’s not terrible. Pittsburgh’s return has higher upside, but significantly higher risk. If they all reach their potential, we lose the deal outright. But how likely is it that all of the players we traded reach their total upside?
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
His own murder!
Try not to take me too seriously
This is the nature of trades like this
Of course the players we got are going to be more valuable over the next year and a half. Pittsburgh is trading for the future. But if they end up with a Clement and a Lorin as quality major leaguers under team control at a cheap cost, then they win the deal long-term. If Adcock or Pribanic also get to that level, it’s a wipe-out unless Snell is phenomenal here.
Try not to take me too seriously
The point is
It’s really, really hard to grade a trade like this until you do have some results.
Try not to take me too seriously
Right. I know for 2009 and 2010 it's hard for us to lose.
I’m just saying that, it’s possible that we win beyond that too. Not necessarily likely, but it’s not a sure thing that even one of the three A-Ballers pan out. I think overall this trade is most likely to be a wash for us. But to call it great, or terrible, seems wrong to me.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Sum six years each of Clement, Pribanic, Lorin, and Adcock
We clearly lose this deal long term. We also clearly win the deal for next year.
by Graham MacAree on Jul 29, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Branyans back is sore. He'll be back soon
I think it was a relatively even trade. Wilson just made an appearance in the dugout. Introduced himself to Wak
Branyan's been sore lately.
I don’t like the trade; we gave up too much minor league talent.
Awww Mike Sweeney hugged Jack Wilson
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
Wilson first meets Sweeney and Mike gives him a hug.
FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS!
Why are there so many Blue Jays fans????
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
Vancouver not that far away?
#34 Forever
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!
Yeah but you need a passport now
I would have assumed that would keep several Canucks north of the border
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
This. I noticed it last year too. Lots of "Let's go Blue-Jays" chants. So annoying.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jul 29, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Canada is not too far away.
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
p.p.s. geoff baker is an idiot
Toronto is televised in Vancouver
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
What the fuck is this? A Lets Go Blue Jays chant?
FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS!
Seattle fans are too nice
If it was Philly they’d go home in the trunk of their car
You mean like 3/4 of his appearances?
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
Robert Manuel
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
couldn't be Bautista
He gets an ewok helmet
2-2 count, 1 out, runner on first
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
Thrid out ground out to Hannhan (SP)
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
p.p.s. geoff baker is an idiot
Swinging Strikeout
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
p.p.s. geoff baker is an idiot
So true.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 29, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Apparently, I hadn't heard about that until Sims mentioned it just now
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
That would be convenient for him
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
5:46pm: Henry Schulman at the San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that it's a done deal, Sanchez straight up for a minor-leaguer. Stay tuned for the name.
Tim Alderson, shit
Two great trades by the Pirates today.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 29, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Just you wait until they make the WS
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 29, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Get crushed by the Indians, beat Halladay
of course. What else was I expecting?
CANADA SHOULD STICK TO BEING A DOMINION.
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on Jul 29, 2009 3:54 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
We won without Jeff Clement!
WOO
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
Neat, a win.
Today is still disappointing.
Trade Washburn!
FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS!
CALL THE YANKEES AND GRAB THEIR TESTICLES VICIOUSLY
by abender20 on Jul 29, 2009 3:55 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Jack Wilson looks happy to be here, that's nice to see.
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
Yeah
Pirates making great trades.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 29, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
With these returns today
it makes me think we’ve got to be able to get something good for Wash.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 29, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I think we just traded for HI McDunnough

Welcome Jack Wilson!
by rizzshairpiece on Jul 29, 2009 4:14 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I loved that movie.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 29, 2009 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm...
Off to look up prospects!
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 29, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Boston is loosing
But I don’t know why I care because there’snoway
Try not to take me too seriously
Why not keep hoping?
I still want to trade Wash, but there’s no reason not to hope for a miracle.
FUCK THE ANGELS!
by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 29, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I do know how to spell, by the way
I don’t know why I decided to type loosing
Try not to take me too seriously
Scott Elbert scratched from his start in AAA
99% chance it has nothing to do with the Mariners, but the Dodgers were looking at starting pitching…
If not, could be a trade elsewhere. In which case it could still be moderately interesting, because Elbert is pretty good.
FUCK THE ANGELS!

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