Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
by Matthew on Jul 21, 2009 1:30 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Previews
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PrintSeattle: 49-43
Detroit: 48-42
SUMMARY
| MARINERS | TIGERS |
EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA) |
-50.3 (27th) |
2.1 (14th) | DET |
| FIELDING (UZR) |
33.8 (4th) |
24.4 (5th) | SEA |
| ROTATION (pRAA) |
6.9 (13th) | -7.2 (18th) |
SEA |
| BULLPEN (pRAA) |
-11.7 (25th) | -5.3 (20th) |
DET |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-21.3 | 14.0 |
Detroit |
It was a big series, and a big week for our pitching staff. Over 35 innings, we allowed a single home run and just 10 free passes to 28(!) strikeouts. We also matched our season average of 42.4% ground balls. That was a legitimately above averagely played series, though the competition factor should not be ignored. Either way let's hope it carries over.
GAMES
Game 1: Garrett Olson* vs. Rick Porcello
Game 2: Felix Hernandez vs. Armando Galarraga
Game 3: Jarrod Washburn* vs. Lucas French*
I am still playing massive catch up from a weekend away so these are going to be somewhat appreviated.
Porcello: His issues are home runs and control. Or really, home run rate, because he does not allow many home runs in total thanks to his terrific ground ball rates. However he is not missing many bats (I am still waiting, Porcello boosters) and a patient lineup can work him out of a game. Thankfully, we kind of have a patient line up now (see previous post).
Galarraga walks too many hitters and pairs that up with an average strikeout ratio and an average batted ball profile. Guess what? He is below average! Surprising, I know. He throws a low-90s heater, but less than half the time, splitting it up with a mid-80s slider that he also tosses 40% of the time making up the sum total of 133% of all his pitches thrown.
Lucas French? Never really been good before, French was outstanding earlier this year in Triple-A and earned his way onto the rotation. He has the standard lefty repertoire of a mediocre fastball, a meh change and a decent breaking ball. That is enough to miss bats in Triple-A, but so far not in the Majors.
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But it's not about me, that would be LLLJ.
How do you feel about the Ms chances today? Olson v Porcello, Detroit would seem to have the edge tonight.
angels fan in seattle
Well
We will probably lose the first game and win the next two like always.
by Pessimistic Optimist on Jul 21, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Im still playing catch up a bit as well.
Just got back from Cabo a couple days ago. Came back to see that the M’s took 3 from the rangers and 3 from the Indians, so i’m happy.
by Pessimistic Optimist on Jul 21, 2009 1:34 PM PDT reply actions
Apparently no beer sponsored this game.
...and now I'm here
Didn't people make the argument last year that Porcello was delibrately not striking people out?
Might want to quit it, Rick.
Adenhart meant to get killed by a drunk driver.
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jul 21, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
That was a classic.
And also, it was really, really common.
I still never understood what the POINT of that was supposed to be. He’s working on improving his BABIP-against? He’s saving his out-pitches for the majors? Why on earth would a pitcher who could strike anyone out choose not to?
The same reason our right fielder
chooses not to hit home runs even thought he could hit 40 a year if he wanted to.
by Rollo Tomasi on Jul 21, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Tigers told him to work mainly off the sinker and not use his 4-seamer or his curveball very often.
Seems stupid to me, but that’s the story I saw. A lot.
Just saying it appears to be an organizational/coaching decision and not a Porcello decision.
Fangraphs says he’s throwing a fastball 76% of the time (doesn’t differentiate between 2- and 4-seamers).
That seems silly to do for a HS pitcher
pitching in pro ball for the first time ever. You do not even know what he has and no matter how good his stuff is at the HS level, he needs to develop it. This isn’t like Felix, who blazed through hitters even w/o his slider.
I agree.
The guy was/is a hell of a prospect, and he’s still super young. Seems weird to me to make him a contact pitcher when he has plenty of time to become something better. But maybe they truly saw him as necessary to make the playoffs this year, at the expense of some development.
This is basically true of every GB pitcher
The two-seamer gets you contact and ground balls. The four-seamer gets you strikeouts and fly balls. Pitchers who choose to throw a ton of two-seamers (like Porcello) are deliberately choosing to forgo strikeouts for ground balls.
by davidcameron on Jul 21, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
And on top of that
I always thought the Tigers wanted a little more than a worse Jake Westbrook. The kid’s 20 years old.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 21, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
This is a conscious strategy, and one that can succeed at the MLB level.
It’s not the same thing as saying that once the Tigers give him the thumbs up his K rate will double.
He can succeed in mlb exactly the same way he succeeded in the minors….with low Ks and GBs. But this is clearly not what was implied by the comments from last year.
Well, sure
But his strikeout rate can go up if he changes his pitch mix a bit.
by davidcameron on Jul 21, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, sure
But his ground ball rate is likely to go down if he changes his pitch mix a bit.
I didn't realize the Tigers were so good at defense.
by Pessimistic Optimist on Jul 21, 2009 1:39 PM PDT reply actions
Improving the defense seemed to be their plan over the winter,
bringing in Adam Everett and Gerald Laird, and getting Marcus Thames out of the outfield. And making Inge the everyday 3B.
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