FanPost

Freely available SS

Lugo DFA'd, Sox will eat salary

I'm sure I'm not the first to see this and ponder the idea, so I thought I'd compare him to Cedeno and see if Lugo would be a better option going forward.

Lugo clearly has a large advantage at the plate.  Though he has never been all that good offensively, for the rest of the season, ZIPS projects a .324 wOBA.  Over ~320 PA, this would put him at -1.7 wRAA.  Ronny is (very generously, in my opinion) projected to have a .286 wOBA.  Over the same amount of PA, that puts him at -12.2 wRAA.

So, does Ronny's defense make up for the 10.5 run difference?  Depends on how optimistic you are on Lugo's defense.  Lugo, since coming back from surgery, has been terrible.  His -43.2 UZR/150 is a product mainly of SSS, but closer examination shows that his range just hasn't come back.  While his range is generally worth around 5 runs above average, it has dropped to -5.3 since his return.  Over at Fangraphs, R.J. says he expects -10 UZR/150 to be more realistic.  Ronny meanwhile is on pace for 11.1 UZR/150.  Over roughly 75 games, this would put the difference in defense at about 10.5 runs.

Essentially, it looks to be a wash.  This is assuming, of course, Ronny lives up to his optimistic ZIPS projection and Lugo's range hasn't deserted him completely.  Also, I am not educated in park factors, but I'm assuming Lugo's switch from Fenway to Safeco may actually give Ronny the advantage.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Lookout Landing

You must be a member of Lookout Landing to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lookout Landing. You should read them.

Join Lookout Landing

You must be a member of Lookout Landing to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lookout Landing. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker