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Lugo DFA'd, Sox will eat salary

I'm sure I'm not the first to see this and ponder the idea, so I thought I'd compare him to Cedeno and see if Lugo would be a better option going forward.

Lugo clearly has a large advantage at the plate.  Though he has never been all that good offensively, for the rest of the season, ZIPS projects a .324 wOBA.  Over ~320 PA, this would put him at -1.7 wRAA.  Ronny is (very generously, in my opinion) projected to have a .286 wOBA.  Over the same amount of PA, that puts him at -12.2 wRAA.

So, does Ronny's defense make up for the 10.5 run difference?  Depends on how optimistic you are on Lugo's defense.  Lugo, since coming back from surgery, has been terrible.  His -43.2 UZR/150 is a product mainly of SSS, but closer examination shows that his range just hasn't come back.  While his range is generally worth around 5 runs above average, it has dropped to -5.3 since his return.  Over at Fangraphs, R.J. says he expects -10 UZR/150 to be more realistic.  Ronny meanwhile is on pace for 11.1 UZR/150.  Over roughly 75 games, this would put the difference in defense at about 10.5 runs.

Essentially, it looks to be a wash.  This is assuming, of course, Ronny lives up to his optimistic ZIPS projection and Lugo's range hasn't deserted him completely.  Also, I am not educated in park factors, but I'm assuming Lugo's switch from Fenway to Safeco may actually give Ronny the advantage.

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