Do Not Look Now

by Matthew on Jul 14, 2009 11:13 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

Jose Lopez

	2008	2009
uBB% + HBP%	3.4	3.9
K%	9.8	10.7
HR/BIA%	5.2	6.9
Contact%	88.0	87.2
Line Drive%	22.5	21.4
BABIP	.304	.249
ISO_Disc	.025	.031
ISO_Slg	.146	.172

The BABIP should regress up toward Lopez's 2008 mark and if it does, you are looking at a player who has improved or at least maintained in every meaningful category from a season in which he was a better than league average hitter at 2B. Just get those errors under control, Jose.

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Thank you

He’s improved his UZR as the season has gone on to keep it close to 0. Can we stop blaming him for the team’s problems please? Just get a new SS and the M’s are good. A new 2B is not the top of the list when it comes to the team’s problems.

by CMC_Stags on Jul 14, 2009 11:25 AM PDT reply actions

Who has been blaming Lopez?

I think people are frustrated with him batting third, but he hasn’t been close to the top of our problems. Shortstop, catcher, Beltre’s replacement, DH, and pitching (specifically the bullpen and Morrow) have taken the most scrutinty this season.

Things may be said during games, but that can be thanks to GTE.

by Wilder. on Jul 14, 2009 12:01 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Lots of people believe Jose Lopez is a problem on this team.

by Matthew on Jul 14, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions

There was a time earlier this season that I thought that because he looked like bad Jose and 2008 looked like a massive outlier.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 14, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I still wish he wasn't a gigantic waste of talent.

by abender20 on Jul 14, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions

And I still hate you

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Why did I not get that you were a huge Lopez fan until now?

There are two of us!

by Kirk on Jul 14, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Three.

Joof.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 14, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Hmm.

Yay!

by Kirk on Jul 14, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions

And Last Fan of Yuniesky Betancourt

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Yuni has been bad since his rookie year

Jose on the other hand had a great 2007 going until his brother died and then had a very good 2008. If his BABIP in the 2nd half regresses to his career norm (correct usage!), then he’ll be an asset for the stretch run.

Also, you never hear about him not working hard like you heard about Yuni.

by CMC_Stags on Jul 14, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think we're trying to compare Jose and Yuni, just saying that Yuni had some fans.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 14, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes and mine was an ironic joke about Yuni having fans.

The internet sucks.

by Kirk on Jul 14, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Four. Me.

by royalcurve on Jul 14, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Bandwagoner

by Kermit. on Jul 14, 2009 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, but better her on the bandwagon than just about anyone else

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2009 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions

I used to be a Jose Lopez fan. Can I come back to the bandwagon?

The Yankees suck-a-doodle-doo!

by JamMasterJesus on Jul 15, 2009 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions

We'll make a decision after the next few gamethreads

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2009 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Gah! Does this mean I can't make fun of him anymore?

The Yankees suck-a-doodle-doo!

by JamMasterJesus on Jul 15, 2009 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm suddenly envisioning the Jose Lopez bandwagon as more of a hayride

by Kermit. on Jul 15, 2009 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm envisioning it more like this:

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jul 15, 2009 2:44 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs

I think I make fun of him more than 90% of LL

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Also, when can I graduate from bandwagoner back to genuine fan?

The Yankees suck-a-doodle-doo!

by JamMasterJesus on Jul 15, 2009 1:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Erm.

The 3 of us took alot of flack over the last couple years here. But our love never wavered.

by Slica on Jul 15, 2009 2:11 AM PDT up reply actions

Not saying an upgrade isn't possible

Sanchez would be and upgrade and there will be some on the market this off-season, but he’s cheaper than those alternatives and is probably a 1.5 – 2.5 WAR player.

by CMC_Stags on Jul 14, 2009 11:26 AM PDT reply actions

ARGH

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:32 AM PDT reply actions

frown

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions

But I love Loafie

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions

Why the ARGH and frown?

by Matthew on Jul 14, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions

I spent three hours thinking about and writing this up yesterday

the first snippet of which was my Facebook status last night

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh.

I wrote this about five days ago and then he committed two errors and I figured I should push off publishing it.

by Matthew on Jul 14, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions

damn you

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions

With regards to HR/BIA

Loafie has shown improvement in this category every year since coming into the majors, and this year is running 9.8 HR/FB (mainly looking at flyballs because his liners tend to be more of the frozen rope to left variety).

Is it common for players to increase their HR/FB as they physically mature? Shoudl we expect this to peak somewhere and then decline after he reaches his physical peak?

It’s probably also worth noting that his homers this hear have been hit much harder than in years past – 102.8 average speed off bat vs 99.9 career previously.

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:36 AM PDT reply actions

Speed off the bat is available for seasons prior to 2009?

by BrianL on Jul 14, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Home runs only

thanks HitTracker!

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions

it's pretty remarkable for him to run a ~average HR/BIA in Safeco given he only hits to left field

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 14, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions

What's weird is that he hit 13 homers at Safeco last year and only three this year

it’s not as if Safeco changed in the offseason, and he’s hitting ~the same as a whole this year.

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

I also have the feeling that his Iso_D is up because he's bunting a lot less

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions

Not because he's walking more.

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Even though he is walking a bit more

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions

It's almost predictable that I would post 7 of the first nine comments in this thread

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions

I can't look at the SC numbers cause they're so full of malice

but there are some differences between 08 and 09 Jose Lopez according to FG.

Since coming up from Tacoma Lopez has never hit more balls in the air than on the ground. Until this year. Usually, this would probably be a good thing for a slow guy like him, but as a pull hitting righty in Safeco it’s BAbip poison.

Well, maybe that’s overstating the effect, but you see where I’m going with this. He’s got a .288 career BAbip as a 1.2GB/FB hitter. Now he’s at 0.9, and when you factor that into his .257 BAbip it becomes more difficult to write it off as poor luck.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 14, 2009 12:04 PM PDT reply actions

His bunting is down, which lowers his GB%

and his infield pop rate is way down.

by Matthew on Jul 14, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions

If I am interpreting the FG data correctly (I do not usually look at the batted ball data so closely)

He had seven bunts last year and has three this year (zero for hits both years), and the IFFB% is pretty much the same (10.1 and 9.8). Am I looking at the wrong stats or are you quoting SC numbers?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 14, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions

You quoted career numbers.

Do not mix and match career vs 2009 and 2008 vs 2009. That’s bad.

by Matthew on Jul 14, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions

The only career number I quoted is BABIP

I also brought up that he’s a career 1.2 GB/FB hitter, but last year he was at 1.24 so there’s no reason to differentiate. So, again, is it not possible that the difference in BABIP is due to a difference in Lopez’ swing, which is causing him to put more balls in the air? It would explain both the better ISO and (at least some of) the lower average.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 14, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Some splits

GB: .242 career BABIP, .148 in 2009
FB: .100, .126
LD: .701, .661

I know Lopez is slower than he used to be, but the league average BABIP on grounders is .235.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 14, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions

God dammit

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 14, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions

This was a god damn waste

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 14, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions

YES

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Good job

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 14, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Brevity rocks

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 14, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

frown

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions

I expanded on the idea

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions

OK

If I take these BABIP numbers and plug them into his batted ball profile in FG (38.7GB, 43.3FB 18.1LD) then you get 232 hits per 1000 balls in play with his 09 BABIP against 264 hits per thousand using career BABIP. It is considerable.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 14, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes.

by Matthew on Jul 14, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Playoffs!!!

by Snuffleupagus on Jul 14, 2009 12:15 PM PDT reply actions

OK, some more numbers to help out this cause

From 2004-2008, Loafie ran the following slash lines (fourth number is BABIP)
Grounders – .242/.277/.263/.242
Fly Balls – .162/.158/.416/.102
Line Drives – .707/.708/.972/.703

For comparison, his 2009 numbers
Grounders – .148/.148/.148/.148
Fly Balls – .213/.204/.537/.126
Line Drives – .672/.672/.895/.669

Essentially what we’re looking at here is that Loafie has been extremely unlucky on ground balls. He’s been a bit lucky compared to career averages on fly balls and a bit unlucky on line drives, but neither of those are particularly alarming, since they’re close enough that a mini-hot or cold streak should put him right around his career marks.

However, the ground balls seems to be the brunt of his bad luck. Loafie has hit 108 ground balls this season, and a .148 BABIP gives him 16 ground ball base hits. If we pull that back to his career average of .242, he gets ten additional ground ball base hits. Also, thanks to the wonders of BB-R, we can see that for his career, he averages 1.1 total bases per ground ball hit, so in this scenario, I’m crediting him with nine singles and one double for ten extra hits and eleven extra total bases.

If we apply a similar scheme to his fly ball and line drive rates, we get 59 singles, 19 doubles and 12 homers in 313 at bats, good for a slash line of .288/.326/.463, for an OPS of .789.

I know this method is extremely simplistic, but it’s just looking at a very broad view of how much production Lopez has lost due to luck this year. Also, this assumes that his power improvement is real, as he’s posting a 9.8 HR/FB v. career average of 7.0 HR/FB. However, it’s worth noting that a) he’s entering his physical prime and b) he’s hitting the ball a lot harder this year, as noted above, his homers have gone from 99.9 avg speed off bat to 102.8.

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:17 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

You're also assuming that he is the same player he has been over his career

but his batted ball profile has changed pretty dramatically, which suggests that he is putting a different swing on the ball. Maybe it’s a sample size thing… who knows. but his GB slash line is miserable. That’s Griffey territory.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 14, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

He's hitting more fly balls than ever before, but that has nothing to do with per-batted-ball type BABIP

also, Griffey has a .110 GB BABIP. Yeah.

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

By the way, the AVG/OBP difference on balls in play is because of reaching on error and home runs?

Must be since GB OBP > AVG and FB OBP < AVG.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 14, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd assume so, it makes sense for grounders

for fly balls, I’m fairly certain it’s for sac flies – don’t count against BA, but count against OBP

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Right right

since HR are not in play. Thanks for the clarification.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 14, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

is he slower?

I’m assuming the grounder numbers would go down if he lost a bit of speed. I have no reason to think that he has, but is there a measure out there to show that he hasn’t? Does someone time contact with ball to first-base times of players?

by Snuffleupagus on Jul 14, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Well his speed score this year has been abysmal, and he's already grounded into 15 DPs (no that's not a typo...)

however, his range has been ~average to slightly above for a 2B, so he can’t be a total slug out there. I really don’t know what to think in this case. It’s probably also worth nothing that he’s running 5.5% IF hits this year, down from a 9.7% career average. He may just be hitting harder grounders, though.

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Those speed scores are nearly worthless.

I’m amazed Fangraphs endorses them, the methodology is a bunch of hoo-ey.

by Terminator X on Jul 14, 2009 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm curious how much better is a player like Robinson Cano than Jose Lopez?

I’m wondering if Lopez would be considered a strength if the players around him in the lineup were better or the players on defense weren’t so good. Ya know? As to disguise his weaknesses.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 14, 2009 12:21 PM PDT reply actions

I'm curious as to how much better a replacement level commenter would be in comparison to Kenny Knows Sports

I’m wondering if he would be considered a strength on Geoff Baker’s blog or the ESPN.com boards because the commenters around him would be so much worse. You know, in order to disguise his weaknesses.

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 14, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Not necessary.

by marc w on Jul 14, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Gotta call BS on SB here

Kenny has endured a large pile of crap in his first couple weeks here and he’s learning. And showing a willingness to learn.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jul 14, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions

SB was just protecting his fat Mexican territory

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 14, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

The only times I've I've ever seen SB be mean are when he's defending Loafie. When he's doing that, though, he's like a momma bear defending her cub.

by Decatur on Jul 14, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

And he will eat your face, don't you even think twice.

by abender20 on Jul 14, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions

SB is Japanese you racist asshole.

by Robert on Jul 14, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Have we decided if I'll be known as SB or sb?

SB looks like I steal bases, and my username isn’t capitalized anyway

by seattlebruin on Jul 14, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm going to go with BS

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 14, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions

bs

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 14, 2009 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm going with Essby

just to be different.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jul 14, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I like this one

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2009 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions

I took this reaction from sb as proof that Kenny has gained his acceptance.

by Aaron Campeau on Jul 14, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks Everyone.

I had to take the comment with a grain of salt, and it was actually pretty funny. But thanks, I’m going through the learning process and I appreciate the help along the way.

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 14, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Just watch yourself around Loafie's biggest fan.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 14, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Does my comment come off that way?

I really am wondering, if Jose Lopez played in New York or Boston, what kind of player would he be viewed as? Going back to the comment about Lopez hitting third, if he were hitting 6th or 7th, how much of a difference would that make on peoples perception of his value?

by Kenny Knows Sports on Jul 14, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions