Why is Olson ahead of Vargas for the rotation?

by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 13, 2009 11:13 AM PDT Comment 41 comments

Since both Vargas and Morrow are in Tacoma and Olson isn't, it seems safe to say that Olson's our fourth starter ahead of both of them (and also RR-S); but while neither Olson nor Vargas are world-beaters by any means, it looks to me like Vargas has been the better starter -- his K/BB numbers are better, and he does a better job of keeping the ball on the ground. Maybe I'm just too influenced by Matthew's June report card, but this doesn't make great sense to me.

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Vargas is back right after the ASB I believe.

by acblue on Jul 13, 2009 11:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think this is a given

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 13, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think it is either

because RR-S seems to be ahead of him, too.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 13, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vargas didn't throw all last season and the Mariners are trying to monitor his innings

by Jeff on Jul 13, 2009 11:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yup.

Regardless of past performance, I don’t think you can really expect one to be appreciably better than the other going forward. Neither one is what you want for a number four, and I sincerely hope that Morrow can hurry the fuck up and get his insulin starved shit together down in Tacoma because we desperately need his arm (but this time with command, please).

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 13, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, that makes sense

Thanks.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 13, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's true, but then it's a bit weird to have him go down ostensibly to keep pitching over the AS break.

Hell, maybe he’s going down to Tacoma to NOT pitch over the AAA all-star break.

by marc w on Jul 13, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

25-man roster acrobatics?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 13, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't get it either

but that’s their official statement.

by Jeff on Jul 13, 2009 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the team will be moving RRS into the rotation as soon as Olsen slips up.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jul 13, 2009 11:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sure, but him and whom else?

With Morrow and Vargas in Tacoma, if Olson slips up and gets replaced by RRS you’re still short a starter. And preferably a righty since we’ll otherwise be going Felix, Bedard, Washburn, proto-Washburn, proto-Washburn

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 13, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We don't need a fifth starter for another week and a half.

by acblue on Jul 13, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A week and a half is not a long time

As far as Morrow is concerned, it means what, two starts? maybe three? So he needs to find command of the fastball and control of the curve in three minor league starts. That’s not really enough to give me any confidence. Until then, it’s Felix, Erik and three mediocre lefties with below average fastballs.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 13, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's why you hope Morrow gets his command together quickly...

Then you go Felix, Bedard, Washburn facsimile, Morrow, Washburn facsimile. Washburn facsimile being Washburn, RRS, Vargas, or Olson (best 2 still with the M’s).

by CMC_Stags on Jul 13, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or better yet, none of the Washburn facsimiles are actually Washburn, who has been traded for a legitimate ML SS.

One can dream.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 13, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hence "best 2 still with the M's"

by CMC_Stags on Jul 13, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't get why Olson is ahead of RRS

He may be working his way back, but Olson has been terrible starting and RRS had some success last year and hasn’t had a chance this year.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 13, 2009 12:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The consensus seems to be

that RR-S will come up when we need a fifth starter again — it minimizes roster juggling.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 13, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

By my count we have 11 pitchers right now

Do we really need both Woodward and Wilson? I’d much rather have a lefty out of the pen (whether it be Olson or RRS). In which case, no juggling involved.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 13, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth, RR-S is sitting around 86 with his fastball

so he’s not quite in that 88-89 average range we’d like to see him in. Maybe that’s what it is – who knows.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 13, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's also the elephant in the room..

ZiPS Rest of Season projection (non Felix/Bedard):

Washburn (4.22), Olson (4.89), Vargas (N/A), RR-S (4.55), Silva (4.55), Morrow (4.37)

by CMC_Stags on Jul 13, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Shhhh

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 13, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are these numbers projected ERA?

I am under the impression that 4.5 is league average ERA.

If that’s the case (and ignoring the fact that we are talking about ERA…) what you’re suggesting is that for the rest of the season we will have two of the best pitchers in all of baseball followed by three league average pitchers.

Sounds ok to me. Especially if we can trade one or two of those league average pitchers for some offensive pop.

by Snuffleupagus on Jul 13, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

projected FIP...

by CMC_Stags on Jul 13, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The same thought applies, though.

Since FIP is scaled to ERA.

by Teej on Jul 13, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So this is even better

Ok according to an article at fangraphs 4.40 was the average FIP last year in the American League.

So if we have a team built around defense (second base what now?) and a pitcher friendly park and six pitchers with a slightly worse than league average FIP and two pitchers who are fantastic . . . . well, I feel pretty good about that situation. Not great, but it doesn’t make me terrified of some kind of terrible second half regression when it comes to our starting rotation.

by Snuffleupagus on Jul 13, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In defense of Olson, he's only had a handful of starts this season.

I love RRS, but is he actually better than Olson?

by MFAN on Jul 13, 2009 12:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably

by Matthew on Jul 13, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Olson just doesn't generate any swinging strikes

he throws plenty, but we shouldn’t be lining up to watch flyballers who don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes

by seattlebruin on Jul 13, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would also be nice to have a lefty in the pen.

And if I remember the stats correctly, Olson is better out of the pen than in the rotation.

I actually bought a Betancourt t-shirt.

by Hopefulmsfan on Jul 13, 2009 1:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Everyone is.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 13, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, seems like a toss-up, and if they need to give Vargas more rest, fair enough.

Vargas has had the better results on BIP so far, though Olson has more FB velocity and better breaking balls (as measured by linear weights). They may feel he’s got better stuff overall, which is a perfectly legitimate view.

What’s also sort of funny is that in Tacoma this year, Vargas was basically allergic to GBs, while Olson got quite a few. Since their respective call-ups, they’ve flipped. Now Olson’s below 30% and Vargas gained about 10 percentage points on his GB rate.

by marc w on Jul 13, 2009 1:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

"allergic to GBs"

(cough)

Not that it was directly related, but hey.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Jul 13, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, Bray was at 0.38, and Vargas was 0.48

So not QUITE as FB heavy, but close.

by marc w on Jul 13, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The other way to look at it

is that Olsen has value in the pen as a lefty reliever, which seems to be what his long-term role will be. Vargas seems to fit better as 5th starter/long relief. By leaving him in Tacoma, he stays stretched out. If he’s needed he can be recalled any time after the break.

"Get offa my lawn!"

by Greybear on Jul 13, 2009 2:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No dice

That made sense when Morrow was expected to stay in the rotation, but he’s gone down to Tacoma, and Olson’s now our fourth starter. Vargas would be plenty stretched out up here, too.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 13, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs