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Wbc_029_tiny by Jeff Sullivan on in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps

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Biggest Contribution: Jarrod Washburn, +22.5%
Biggest Suckfest: Griffey, -9.9%
Most Important AB: Johnson homer, +24.9%
Most Important Pitch: Kinsler double, -13.2%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +29.8%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +15.5%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +4.7%
(What is this chart?)

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Read More: Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, Jul 11, 2009 7:10 PM PDT

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Yeah I agree,

Although it’s surprising that a career .191 hitter has a .257 avg with an OPS of .858. Although I’m in no way proclaiming that Rob’s actually clutch…

by C-Nage on Jul 11, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have a question about the game today.

One of the Rangers hit a pop fly that our center fielder didn’t catch. The Ranger on first ran to second then starting going back to first (I don’t know if he touched 2B, is that important?), but when the M’s CF didn’t catch the ball and threw it to 2B the Ranger who was going back to 2B was called out (I’m quite sure he wasn’t tagged). The Ranger was called out, the manager argued, but he was still out. What happened there and what rule was applied? The announcers really didn’t say.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jul 11, 2009 10:42 PM PDT reply actions  

From the game thread
Rule 7.08(d) Comment: Runners need not "tag up" on a foul tip. They may steal on a foul tip. If a so-called tip is not caught, it becomes an ordinary foul. Runners then return to their bases.
(e) He fails to reach the next base before a fielder tags him or the base, after he has been forced to advance by reason of the batter becoming a runner. However, if a following runner is put out on a force play, the force is removed and the runner must be tagged to be put out. The force is removed as soon as the runner touches the base to which he is forced to advance, and if he overslides or overruns the base, the runner must be tagged to be put out. However, if the forced runner, after touching the next base, retreats for any reason towards the base he had last occupied, the force play is reinstated, and he can again be put out if the defense tags the base to which he is forced;

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 11, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess I should have read the game thread. Although, I'm still slow at understanding this.

I apologize, this is still a little new to me. If I quoted a rule in contract bridge it might make no sense to someone who wasn’t familar with the game. So let me try to explain what I think I do understand and please correct what is wrong. According to the rule and your explanation is that the Ranger running from 1B to 2B is the “forced runner” and since he touched 2B (although I didn’t see that on TV), and then started to run back to first when he thought the ball would be caught (at this point he would have had to tag up at 1B before he could advance to 2B) and then saw that it was not caught and that he could go to 2B, the M’s didn’t have to tag him out? All they had to do was throw to 2B to force him out at 2B? Is that right? I don’t remember this from grade school kickball.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jul 11, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

You may be overthinking this... it was a force out.

Runner on first, ball goes into the OF, runner thinks it’s going to be caught, so he runs back to first to avoid being doubled off. Instead, it drops, so the OF throws to 2nd. No different than if the shortstop fielded a grounder.

by marc w on Jul 11, 2009 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

So, what was all the angst about?

Why would the Texas manager be upset about what seemed pretty routine to me? The Ranger from 1B was clearly thrown out by our good-looking center fielder. It wasn’t even close.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jul 11, 2009 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not everyone understands all of the rules.

Managers and players included. He needed to have clarification of the rules.

by Wilder. on Jul 11, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you, I just wanted to make sure I understood the rule.

That one didn’t seem that complicated when put in perspective.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jul 11, 2009 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I think the discussion/complaining made it look more complicated

or made it look like the ump ‘missed’ something, when it was in actuality a really routine, simple call.

by marc w on Jul 11, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

It seemed pretty common sense to me

But I’ve actually read rulebooks. I bet many players and even managers haven’t. Arguing that to me seemed pretty ridiculous.

by Ballard Erik on Jul 11, 2009 11:30 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I doubt that comes up more than once a year in the major leagues

I’m not surprised in the least that Byrd and Washington didn’t know the rule – hell, I had no idea either

by seattlebruin on Jul 12, 2009 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Can't remember ever seeing it in play before

yet the ump had no problem calling it. They are good.

by Paytheline on Jul 12, 2009 12:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

They have to work many, many years in the minors before making it to the majors

I wouldn’t be surprised if this kind of thing does happen in rookie ball or short-season low-A ball. Maybe he screwed up that ruling 14 years ago in a game in Iowa somewhere and definitely remembers it now.

by Inkara1 on Jul 12, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Here's the part where the quoted chunk of the rulebook becomes important.

The Rangers thought that once a player touches the bag, the force play no longer applies. I don’t know WHY they thought that apart from “it would really help out right now if the rules worked that way,” but that’s apparently what they thought.

As it is, I think the rule aligns pretty well with common sense…. the force play doesn’t somehow get waived off because you touched the bag and then ran backwards.

by marc w on Jul 11, 2009 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Again, thank you, That makes perfect sense.

I guess this is a play that doesn’t happen very often, otherwise everyone would know that touching the bag at 2B doesn’t effect what happens if the fielder doesn’t catch the popup.

One more question, if I can. This particular play aside, wouldn’t it make sense on a popup to the deep out-field, for the runner on first or second to stay on first or second and tag up and then run to 2B or 3B rather than run when the ball is hit and then have to go back to 1B or 2B and end up there? If the runner stayed on 1B or 2B until the left or right-fielder caught the ball, wouldn’t he be better off trying to ahead especially if the outfielder had a weak arm?

by Mrs. Robinson on Jul 11, 2009 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

First time I'd ever seen something like that happen

As for running… the manager might have called for a hit-and-run or Byrd might have been attempting a steal.

by Inkara1 on Jul 11, 2009 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, and that happens rather frequently.

You don’t often see a runner tag up and go to 2nd on a deep fly out, but it happens. I’m sure it happens more with weak-armed CFs, but the other thing is the stadium itself. My perspective is skewed by Tacoma’s ridiculous CF wall, where a CF can make a perfectly routine catch at 410 feet. In that case, it may be worth tagging and trying to get to 2nd.

And yeah, on this particular play, I think the tricky thing was the fact that the runner was trying to steal second. If he hadn’t been, he never would’ve gotten near 2nd.

by marc w on Jul 11, 2009 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess my question was a little different.

I’m thinking the popup is either deep to right field or left field, and the runner in on 1B or 2B. Then, why doesn’t he stay, wait for it to be caught and then run on the outfielder?

by Mrs. Robinson on Jul 11, 2009 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

If it's not a hit-and-run or a steal then that would be the way to go

In the case of a hit-and-run or a steal, the runner is in motion before the bat hits the ball.

by Inkara1 on Jul 12, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

The Rangers announcers said it

they weren’t sure of the rule either, but in one of the few times using e-mail to the booth and twitter is actually useful instead of really stupid, viewers pointed out Rule 7.08(e).

by Inkara1 on Jul 11, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

It kinda depends whether you use FIP or tRA though.

Cause a cursory glance says that FIP has us just above average and tRA has us below. I think they’re close enough that I would call this about a nearly average staff.

by Vatinius on Jul 11, 2009 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think at this point, tRA has matured enough where we can safely say it's better than FIP

the problem with FIP was always that it ignored all batted balls profiles – tRA gets us around that hurdle

by seattlebruin on Jul 12, 2009 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

But I think the best things that could happen for this team is to have Washburn continue to pitch well, but the team somehow gets out of the race in the next 2 weeks.

That’s the only chance that Jack Z will consider trading Washburn. It wouldn’t be too cool if the team hangs around by the trading deadline and you trade Washburn.

by brian_sun on Jul 11, 2009 11:09 PM PDT reply actions  

The best thing would be for Washburn to continue to pitch well and help the team stay in the race.

The team can trade Washburn and still be in contention, especially if we get a player that helps us upgrade at another position.

by MFAN on Jul 11, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Doesn't matter how they see it.

If Washburn gets traded for something of quality, it’s not like the rest of the guys are going to lay down and say “okay, we’re out of it.” And if it helps improve the talent on the team, they will play better.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 11, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Does anybody think Washburn can continue to pitch well down the stretch?

Because I think the only reason our team would realistically trade him, is If we got something seriously good back. I don’t believe that we’re gonna be outa this race in two weeks.

by C-Nage on Jul 11, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Believe me, I believe in Jack

 He’s done an unbelievable job. Here Matthew, you can rub it in my face when it happens, because it most likely will. I’m afraid of what quality the arm we’ll get back. Whats available for Washburn? (sorry for the length of time in between posts, I type extremely slow)

by C-Nage on Jul 11, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

It doesn't matter what we get back.

Literally. It does not matter.

Clearing his salary is a win.

by Matthew on Jul 11, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

While I said the exact same thing before the season, I'm not sure I would now.

Not because I think Washburn has become so much more valuable, but because this team seems to not carry money over from year to year, so his salary wouldn’t affect next year’s budget, and there isn’t really a free agent market for us to use that money on.

If they are right up against their budget, so much so that they can’t aquire someone that might be useful, then yes. But if they aren’t going to use the money on something, it doesn’t do that much good to clear the remainder of his salary.

by Vatinius on Jul 11, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

But we have two lefties who are roughly washes against Washburn (no pun intended)

if you can get something back for him, we can easily replace his production, get a few prospects and free up some money for (whatever the team wants to do with it)

by seattlebruin on Jul 12, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I would honestly rather not

if all we’re really getting out of it is some salary relief this year and some B-level prospects. Vargas and Olson would roughly replace Washburn’s production, but their tRA’s are higher and while Wash on the year has been worth 0.7 WAR, Olson is -0.4 and Vargas is 0.1.

It’s not a huge difference, but if it’s only a salary dump, I’d rather go for it this year with Washburn. That is, of course, unless the freed-up salary is going towards adding a SS.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 12, 2009 12:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Again, like Vatinius said above

it all depends on where the money is going, which is one thing we don’t really know.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 12, 2009 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're forgetting about RRS

and don’t forget that WAR is a counting stat – the more Wash pitches, the more WAR he accumulates. He’s made every start this season – Vargas didn’t move into the rotation until June

by seattlebruin on Jul 12, 2009 1:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Point taken.

There seem to be concerns about RRS’s velocity. If not, I would say dump away!

And we also have to take into account that Olson/Vargas/RRS/Morrow will be fighting for two spots to begin with. So if Washburn is dumped, the third best in that group is essentially who we should be comparing him to.

Garrett Olson seems to have gotten his walks under control (which was one of his main problems last year), but tRA and FIP both don’t like him too much, and his BABIP is low, strand rate high.

Maybe I’m just not trusting enough that Olson’s semi-success is sustainable, Morrow will improve, or RRS will fully recover to dump Washburn as purely a salary dump.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 12, 2009 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Which contending team is desperate for a starter?

Phillies? I think they are signing Pedro and may still go after Roy. Who else will want Washburn? I saw Andy Pettitte pitched poorly again today. Maybe the Yanks want him?

by brian_sun on Jul 11, 2009 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Realistically, what kind of prospect we can get for Washburn? What's the starting point that jack Z can ask for?

a major league ready infielder? Keep in mind that if he leaves as a FA, we probably get a draft pick.

by brian_sun on Jul 11, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's got a shot at a Type-B

but goodness would I be terrified if we offered arbitration. I think I’d die if he accepted and we were stuck with him for another year

by seattlebruin on Jul 12, 2009 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

I understand. But he's top 5 in ERA and WHIP. Not saying he will stay there, but

you think someone will sign him. It’s the same situation with Ibanez last off season. So why not offer him arbitration?

by brian_sun on Jul 11, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's true, but it also depends on who will enter the FA pitching market this off season.

By all accounts, it’s not a strong one. So it looks good for him to get a long term contract.

by brian_sun on Jul 11, 2009 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, it really does not.

And even if it was. It is not even close to worth the risk.

I am struggling to find a way to say it more strongly. NOT WORTH THE RISK. Not within the same galaxy as worth the risk. It would be in an entirely different and unrealized universe from worth the risk.

by Matthew on Jul 11, 2009 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

GMZ isn't an idiot.

He doesn’t look at shiny ERAs and WHIPs

Thank God you’re not in charge of this team, otherwise we’d all be praying for Harper around here

by seattlebruin on Jul 12, 2009 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Brewers and Phillies seem like the big two.

But Matthew is right, there is usually always a market for starting pitching.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 11, 2009 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, the problem is: is the White Sox more of a contender than the M's?

I live in Chicago, and the White Sox got pretty good starting pitching now. Washburn would be their 5th starter, and they are not giving up Gordon Beckham, not even for Jake Peavy.

by brian_sun on Jul 11, 2009 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Maybe one B and someone only very minorly interesting

Keep in mind there is a lot of salary in play here also and a lot depends on how much of that we want them to pay. They’re only getting him for the rest of the year also and he’s not going to get them draft picks so for them to give up a top 5 prospect for him is a very, very long shot.

by OlSalty on Jul 11, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Trading for a starting pitcher from Kenny Williams is a lot like buying a Chevrolet

Everyone knows you’re getting something that will be broken before you can say “Ambesol,” but people still do it.

by Inkara1 on Jul 11, 2009 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

At this point

Wasburn might be the best SP available (unless you want to take on Wells salary and trade your top prospects of course). I’m including Pedro. How many league average starters are on the market?

by Ballard Erik on Jul 12, 2009 1:27 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions   1 recs

Roy Halladay is on the market.

I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say that he is maybe a little better than Washburn.

by Vatinius on Jul 12, 2009 2:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Obviously

but did you see what I put in the ( ). Of course he is better, but most teams don’t have the ability to 1) give up top tier prospects and 2) take on the amount of money the Blue Jays would want them too (packaging Wells). So why he might be ‘available’ in actuality he isn’t really ‘available’ to many teams at all.

by Ballard Erik on Jul 12, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why would the Jays package Wells with Halladay?

They know that would chase everybody off.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 12, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Or Jack could trade Washburn and get awesome stuff.

Then trade for Carl Pavano, who is a better pitcher having really bad luck this season, without giving up too much. Assuming, of course, that the Indians do not properly value Pavano, which I doubt.

by JLC on Jul 11, 2009 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think it's an apt comparison

Like the Spartans, our bullpen is completely overmatched and latently homosexual.

by OlSalty on Jul 11, 2009 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions   3 recs

Crap!

I could screen grab that if I were at home.

by ThundaPC on Jul 11, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe someone here is a really creative stats-sorter

I’m curious what the AVG or OPS is against Millwood by batters averaging .200 or below or OPSing .600 or below entering the game. He always seems to give up big hits (and, often, well-struck HRs) to the Rob Johnsons of MLB, but I’m wondering if it just seems that way or if there’s real evidence to back that up.

by Inkara1 on Jul 11, 2009 11:25 PM PDT reply actions  

Washburn is a golden God!

Trading him or Bedard would be asinine. The Mariners could very well win it all this year and then we could watch as the team is dissembled by free agency. Good times never the less.

"Where's my doctor?"

by mw3 on Jul 12, 2009 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Dolphins are terrible creatures that eat their young...

(Thinks)

You know what? I’m just gonna pass on the very vile Washburn joke I had.

Classy.

by SethGrandpa on Jul 12, 2009 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

So we go for it, right?

Trade Washburn or Bedard and get ourselves a SS? I love Z. He’s not as sexy as Gutz, but he’s the MAN when it comes to re-building this team.

by Sinking Away on Jul 12, 2009 12:46 AM PDT reply actions  

At what point do we get rid of Richie Sexson as the site logo?

Don’t get me wrong, I loved its creation and subsequent use, but it seems we’re no longer the most embarrassing franchise in baseball.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 12, 2009 12:49 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

When a successful season is concluded

Any earlier would be whistlin’ past the graveyard

by lemonverbena on Jul 12, 2009 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

One exciting season

cannot erase the endless weltschmerz of Mariner fandom.

by Paytheline on Jul 12, 2009 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Never

and people bringing it up every month or so just hardens our resolve to keep it.

by Matthew on Jul 12, 2009 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

I think it would take a championship

Then it would be a big smiling face of GMZ.

by Snowman1025 on Jul 12, 2009 1:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

When we win the World Series.

The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.425 wOBA, 21 years old.

by Goose on Jul 12, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

So

This is Washburn’s mechanical adjustment:

“Well, try this for me,” Adair replied. “Stick your butt out more when you’re pitching.”

by ThundaPC on Jul 12, 2009 1:04 AM PDT reply actions  

Now we know why Johnson is Jarrod's personal catcher

If you know what I mean. Hint hint.

Because they’re gay.

by Snowman1025 on Jul 12, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Yah, Washburn mentioned it a few days back.

My first visual was Dom Deluise demonstrating how to do the French Mistake.

by msb on Jul 12, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jarrod Washburn with a 2.96 ERA going into the All-Star break.

Who in the holy goddamned fuck would have won THAT bet?

by craig3410 on Jul 12, 2009 1:41 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

He's really doing great. Being in a contract year possibly has something to do with it as well.

Assuming these guys are still here and Wash doesn’t run out of gas (like last year), and assuming that we make the playoffs, a Felix, Bedard, Washburn rotation would be pretty darn solid.

by Sam Regens on Jul 12, 2009 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think...

…having a plus defense has a lot more to do with it….

by rtang on Jul 12, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

His ERA being that low? Sure. We went into the season with 3 CF.

Quite a few people predicted his ERA would be low due to this. His tRA predictably has been similar to previous years, although he certainly is pitching better although whether this is due to the way he is pitching or just that he has more confidence now from having a shiny ERA is debatable.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jul 12, 2009 2:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sucks that now we're finally doing pretty well, the fucking Angels won't lose.

Probably using our and Texas’s unexpected nonsuckitude for added motivation/energy.
The Angels are one of the most corny “motivational speech type” teams in the history of the game. Can’t stand them.

by Sam Regens on Jul 12, 2009 2:36 AM PDT reply actions  

I went to M's-Angels games in the old Big A when I was a kid

Have to admit that I had a tiny bit of affection for the California Angels. Reggie, Rod Carew, Doug DeCinces… and the old stadium was the first place I saw an outdoor MLB game. But for The LAAoA, I have deep hatred.

by lemonverbena on Jul 12, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Texas is the only team that seems to be able to beat the Angels consistently, although Seattle beats them slightly less consistently

I thought surely the Yankees would be able to take two out of three from LAAAAAAAAAAAAA. The Angels are 11-16 against the rest of the AL West but 16-9 against the East and 14-4 in interleague play.

by Inkara1 on Jul 12, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

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