Trade Rumor Of The Day*
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 1, 2009 7:31 PM PDT
in Miscellaneous
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Print*there will not be a new rumor every day
From Jon Paul Morosi:
The Mariners, running a close third in the American League West, will probably wait about two weeks before moving definitively on the trade market.Already, though, they have engaged in preliminary discussions with the Padres about third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, according to one source with knowledge of the talks.
The person added that the chances for a deal — at this point, at least — are not strong. But San Diego officials have made clear to other clubs that Kouzmanoff is available.
I don't advise getting your hopes up (or down, depending on your perspective) quite yet, but with the Mariners in desperate need of a third baseman and the Padres being out of the race, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the teams have talked to each other. Kouzmanoff's actually a pretty obvious target when you really think about things, and though I should caution that the odds are probably 90-95% that nothing like this ever happens, he's a player to think about that could help us both now and over the next few years. Don't be deterred by his unimpressive numbers - Petco just kills him, and the reality is that he's a solidly average to above-average regular who'd fill a big hole. Assuming a reasonable price, I'd be happy to have him. As much as I'd like to have Beltre come back, that's probably not in the cards.
So there you go. A little something to take your mind off the loss.
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I don't know if it is smart to deal with our ®ivals.
2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4
by Fin on Jul 1, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
It'll just add fuel to the fire. Now these games will be extra exciting!
I actually bought a Betancourt t-shirt.
Kooz you can yooz?
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Jul 1, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You Kooz, you looz.
2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4
by Fin on Jul 1, 2009 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Every home run would be a Huge JackManOff!
...and now I'm here
This was not intended to come off as dickish as it sounds in my head now actually
I was just looking for a way to work in that pun.
His walk rates are kind of weird
He was at 8% plus throughout the minors, and just a hair under 6% in ‘07, so it’s bizarre that he’s been under 4% since then
Even with a reasonable (and above career average) BABIP last year, he hit for a .316 wOBA.
While his LD% is down this year and his HR/FB clearly suffers some from Petco, how much would a move to Safeco really help a righty? While I realize he’s not bad, he swings at more strikes and more balls than the average hitter, doesn’t walk, and makes less contact than the average hitter. He doesn’t hit for enough power to justify that sort of discipline. I am quite happy with the sort of hitters Zduriencik has been assembling, and so I’d hate to see another Yuni/Loafie style hitter (with more power, sure) added to the lineup.
Chris Woodward.
I actually bought a Betancourt t-shirt.
And even with that low wOBA last year, he was worth 2.7 wins. And 2.6 the year before.
I have similar concerns, as Kouz isn’t great at getting on base or making contact, but he has more power than Yuni or Loafie at least. His career ISO of .173 compares to Yuni’s .114 and Lopez’s .131.
He’s not a world-beater, but he can be useful. It would depend on what San Diego wanted, of course.
That WAR is all positional adjustment credit and his playing time. I realize that WAR is WAR and that Kouzmanoff far outstrips
any options currently available. Given the current situation, sure why not? With no real replacement imminent (barring moves or whatever) for the middle infield, I don’t want to semi-punt another position long term.
His wOBA* for the last three years has declined, though
From 0.351 in ‘07, to 0.332 last year, to 0.301 through this year. The hitting might be acceptable if it was going to stay at that level, but a decline like that can’t be the best thing in the world for a guy with a meh glove.
He totally seems like a player that I would not enjoy watching on a daily basis
That said, he’s a decent role player that could at least hit for about as much power as Beltre. It’d be nice to have someone with a little bit of upside, though.
by JLC on Jul 1, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Kouzmanoff
Hacktastic, low walks, right hander, with at best a 0 < x < -5 glove.
I know he was worth 2.7 and 2.6 wins the last two years, but… what’s the appeal of adding another righty to play half of his games in another righty killing field?
Even if we assume he gets better in the hitting department at SafeCo over PetCo, it can’t be that significant overall. Assuming he doesn’t improve to anything but a league average bat at best, his glove is average at best and wont make up for his value. Right now, his whole value is in his position.
What am I missing?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 1, 2009 9:25 PM PDT reply actions
I know this is all speculation until we know if we're going to actually DO anything
But let’s assume that we do acquire him, it would be a gain from what our options are, but still a loss from Beltre. Considering things, it’s not enough. We’d still be worse off than we were before the injury.
If we’re really going to buy, shouldn’t we aim a bit higher?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 1, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions
In Jack I Trust.
But you’re going to have to give up something for Kouzmanoff, too. As long as it’s nothing interesting, I’m not horribly opposed to the idea of getting Kouzmanoff.
Jack’s motives have been to improve the team now and going forward. Kouzmanoff certainly fills a need for 2010 and beyond, assuming we don’t retain Beltre. I just don’t know what he does for us now and I’m not sure he’s the best option going forward either.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 1, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
What he does for us now?
He’s a massive, massive upgrade over any option we have right now. Doing nothing while Beltre is out could seriously jeopardize any chance we have at the playoffs. And there’s no guarantee that Beltre comes back in 6-8 weeks healthy and productive.
Massive?
Considering his skill sets, I don’t think you can say that right now. Kouzmanoff was a 2.5ish WAR player in the past, but as we all know, past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.
I’m looking at Kouzmanoff’s stats, searching for something that screams 2009’s .293 wOBA is a fluke. But he’s not getting overly hosed in the BABIP department, his line drive rate isn’t that off of his norms. Contact rates. Out of zone swing rates. There is nothing here that screams Kouzmanoff is going to progress back to previous norms.
His ISO power has gone down annually, his walking has disappeared, and even if we consider that PetCo is killing him, what makes anybody think SafeCo wont? -5 < x < 5 glove at third doesn’t hold the fort down when you’re not hitting.
Massive? Maybe I’m spoiled on Adrian Beltre, but “massive” over Lopez at third this aint.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 1, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Well yes.
But if the “plan” circulating around is to put Lopez at third and Yuni at second, then we must consider that as well. The comment was that Kouzmanoff was a massive upgrade over “any” option we have. That’s clearly not the case and is an overstatement.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 2, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't put that much emphasis on immediate recent performance
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 2, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
You're correct, and normally I wouldn't.
Except, like I said, I don’t see anything amongst his stats that screams that he’ll turn around and be better or that he’s just in an unlucky slump. Even his ZIPs projection from here on out thinks he’ll be barely be league average and below league average for the year.
Look, I’m not a pro sabermetrician here. I’m an amateur statistical analyst at best. If I’m missing something that should make me leap out of my chair at getting Kevin Kouzmanoff, I’d be more than happy to be wrong about this.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 2, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
You don't have to leap out of your chair at the possibility
but he would help. You see how ZiPS projects a higher wOBA than what he did in 2008? You see how he was a good player in 2008?
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 2, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe that's my problem.
I just have a hard time accepting the math that a league average glove and a below league average bat means he’s worth two wins. It’s like, the entirety of his value was in the math modifier for replacement level, which isn’t a constant.
I’d probably feel a ton better if he was at least an above league average bat or an above league average glove. One or the two. Both would be awesome. But I’d accept one. He’s just so… unsexy.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 2, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
The trick is
Giving up something in the farm system that appears to be of value to someone else but isn’t of value to the Mariners. This is Jack’s job.
"his whole value is in his position."
But it’s a position he plays at a roughly average level, so I don’t see anything misleading about looking at his WAR. And having an average to slightly above-average player is better than any of our current 3B options, right?
I’ve always been a bit of a Kouz apologist, so I could be missing something, too, but I think he’d improve the team right now. Beltre was a 3- to 4-win third baseman, and Kouz looks to be a 2- to 3-win player for pretty cheap. It’s a downgrade, but it’s better than playing Woodward there.
It is well better than playing Woodward. If he comes cheap, great. I just don't want to cede anything of real value
for a soon to be 28 year old whose skillset isn’t great and isn’t going to age well.
Understandable.
As I mentioned above, it would all depend on who we gave up. If it wasn’t much, I’d be cool with it. I trust Kouzmanoff for the next three years more than Tui or Lopez.
Yeah. As always, it takes me more than 5 minutes to put all of my thoughts together.
I’m pretty sure I trust GMZ to know the right price for a guy like Kouzmanoff, but I’m still soured by my total lack of enthusiasm for Kouzmanoff outside of cheap and not shitty.
I remember when people were going insane over Kouzmanoff when he hit .379/.437/.656 in the minors in 2006.
The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.425 wOBA, 21 years old.
Well...
That would be something.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 1, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Kouzmanoff
During the last Angels/ Padres series, Kouzmanoff really stood out to me as a player a lot of teams would do well to acquire, including the Angels. He can really swing the bat.
I am the Iron Man
Sounds good if he comes cheap
His career road wOBA is about .340 (I couldn’t get HBP and ROE splits) which is just fine, and his glove is solidly average. If he can be got at a reasonable price it would allow the management to focus on fixing the middle infield, which is an unmitigated disaster at the moment. Well, if Lopez can keep up his June numbers it’s a mitigated disaster but still.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 2, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions
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