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The Evolution of Mark Lowe's Delivery

I present to you four images:

Lowedelivery3_medium

The first image is from April 2008. Mark Lowe brings his knee up to his nipples as he begins to throw from the windup.

The second image is from September 2008. Lowe's knee is up high again, but by this point he's abandoned the windup in favor of throwing from the perma-stretch.

The third image is from April 2009. Still throwing from the stretch, Lowe's knee lift is lower than before, and he's more closed instead of leaning back and balancing on his push leg.

The fourth image is from a few days ago. Lowe's leg is lower than ever before, and he's gone from a quick knee lift to something like a pseudo-slide step.

These were all deliberate changes made to Lowe's delivery, changes in part intended to give him better control over his body and in so doing allowing him to find a more consistent release point. The windup and the knee lift added a few tenths of a second to Lowe's delivery time during which both the current and the previous coaching staffs think Lowe loses it. By simplifying everything and making him quicker to the plate, coaches believe that Lowe will be able to have more success.

The problem, of course, is that he hasn't. At least, not yet. Dropping the windup seemed to do Lowe some good, as his strike rate jumped from 58% to 63% a year ago after going to the stretch without sacrificing any missed bats, but so far in 2009, after spending the last several months trying to get quicker to home, his command has been poor and his swinging strikes have dropped by more than a quarter from where they were in 2008. This despite a clear uptick in velocity. That's bad.

It could be related to the fact that Lowe has been throwing more fastballs at the expense of his change. His fastball is pretty hittable, while his offspeed stuff is considerably less so. However, I don't think that alone explains why Lowe's swinging strike rate is as low as it is, and one has to wonder whether it is in any way related to his faster delivery. I know when I used to pitch, trying to speed things up made me feel less in control, not more. Lifting my knee and balancing on my back leg helped me feel stable, while the slide step hurried everything. It's possible that Lowe is the same way. Maybe the leg lift allowed him to compose himself in a way that he can't achieve while trying to get to home plate as fast as possible.

But that's speculation. What matters is this: Mark Lowe's delivery has visibly changed, and while his coaches have worked to make him quicker to home, he has missed significantly fewer bats than he used to. Whether or not those two things are related, I can't say, but it's something to keep an eye on, because at this point there's no reason to believe that Lowe's faster delivery has made him any better. Though I'm happy to defer to John Wetteland on stuff like this and am willing to give him and Lowe more time to get things figured out, the early evidence suggests that this is another mechanical tweak that doesn't do anyone any good.

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Thank you for following up on yesterday's subthread.

In your look at his delivery, did you notice if he’s pulling the bull from his glove earlier or opening up more readily?

by abender20 on Jun 9, 2009 10:37 AM PDT reply actions  

Didn't notice

What I did notice was this:

Hey look, everything after the start is the same!

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 9, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting.

Your first set of images show his starting ball/pitching arm position getting lower with each successive move. Obviously the higher knee action necessitated picking up his glove, and I imagine he started in the same place and raised his arms in accordance with the lift. Using an analogy from basketball, I can see pitchers having a shot pocket, in this case a defined area from where they begin pulling the ball from the glove and starting arm action. Even when you get a higher pass, you still drop the ball into your shot pocket before starting your release.

If Lowe’s comfort level for his release is nearer his midsection, he’d have to wait longer to unsheath
the ball with a higher leg kick, as he’d wait until his arms dropped back into his zone. With the lower leg kick, he could in theory be slower from glove to cocked or something like that.

Or this is all bullshit.

by abender20 on Jun 9, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

So this new delivery coincides both with an increase in velocity and in strike percentage....

Why do you think there’s something other than pitch mix at work for his declining SwSt%? Again, I really wish we had Josh Kalk’s pitch fx cards again, but I think we just need to see his SwSt% by pitch…

By linear weights, his fastball is considerably better than it was in ‘08, which makes sense just from the velo. Still, that’s a bit more evidence that the change itself hasn’t hurt his FB appreciably. His pitch mix is an odd one, as it’s seemed to change substantially every year. I keep thinking that and what I’d guess is much less movement on the slider/split is what’s to blame for lower swinging strikes.

by marc w on Jun 9, 2009 11:24 AM PDT reply actions  

According to the PITCHf/x data, Lowe's slider actually has more movement in 2009 than it did in 2008

I’ll work on getting that pitch data. I just have trouble believing that an increase from 66% to 71% fastballs could account for such a substantial SwS% dip on its own.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 9, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hmmm.

The trouble with 2008 is that he threw the change/split much more often. The fact that his slider was god-awful in 2008 probably had something to do with that. -1.11 per 100 pitches on the slider last year, going up to +0.89 this year. Again, if the new delivery helped at all with this, I’ll take it. The big problem’s been that change/split, that went from +0.89 in 2008 to a remarkable -4.52/100 pitches this year. He’s down below 10% with it, but I’m guessing that the swinging strike difference may have something to do with that pitch.
Still, his slider and FB are both more effective now than in 2008. I have no idea what the fuck’s going on with that other pitch, but he may be dropping it entirely. I’m not sure how the new delivery would affect that pitch, so I guess I’m still thinking that if they can improve the velo, accuracy (and results!) of the FB, it’s probably worth it.

by marc w on Jun 9, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm baffled about why he has seemed so reluctant to use his slider lately.

Remember his 2009 debut against the Twins? The 7 sliders he threw in the 8th inning resulted in 7 swinging strikes.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_04_08_seamlb_minmlb_1&mode=gameday
Is there something seriously wrong with his slider now?

by Decatur on Jun 9, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

But he's using the slider considerably more than in 2008.

I agree that he could probably get more SwSt% by throwing the slider more, but he’s not shelving it.
The whole staff seems remarkably FB-heavy, compared to career averages… maybe Adair’s philosophy?

by marc w on Jun 9, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're right - 20% sliders this year.

It just seemed like less. Maybe I’ve just got “establish the fastball” on the brain. Still, as it’s his best pitch this year, I’d like to see him go to it a little more often.

by Decatur on Jun 9, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here we go

Lowe, 2008:

FA: 65% thrown, 5.8% SwS
SL: 15% thrown, 17.9% SwS
CH: 20% thrown, 27.5% SwS

Lowe, 2009:

FA: 72% thrown, 4.0% SwS
SL: 21% thrown, 18.8% SwS
CH: 7% thrown, 18.9% SwS

Applying this year’s pitch selection to last year’s SwS numbers drops Lowe to 10% SwS. However, he’s actually hanging out at 8.5%, so something else is going on.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 9, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Furthermore

Lowe, 2008:

FA: 60% strikes
SL: 60% strikes
CH: 68% strikes

Lowe, 2009:

FA: 65% strikes
SL: 51% strikes
CH: 54% strikes

Seems like he’s just completely lost control of his changeup.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 9, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, he just needs to stop throwing it entirely.

(This is great stuff, Jeff… thanks!)

It’s also odd to me that his FB had so many more swst in 2008, despite the fact that the linear weights on the pitch were atrocious. Batters either swung and missed or they crushed it.

by marc w on Jun 9, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting observations. I've known other players who have felt the same way.

Whether batting or pitching, some feel strongly that the movements they can control seconds before the pitch or the bat give them the physical “presence” that they need to complete either the pitch or the swing. They describe it as extra time to look or to focus. Maybe Lowe does need the leg lift to give him that “presence”, clearly pitching faster has not helped his approach.

by Sinking Away on Jun 9, 2009 9:21 PM PDT reply actions  

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