A Quick Comparison
by Graham on Jun 8, 2009 9:00 AM PDT
in Miscellaneous
102 comments
Junior years of some top college hitters:
Alex Gordon, 2005 (Nebraska): 72 G, .372/.518/.715, 19 HR
Matt Wieters, 2007 (Georgia Tech): 57 G, .358/.490/.592, 10 HR
Pedro Alvarez, 2008 (Vanderbilt): 40 G, .317/.424/.532, 9 HR (NB: significantly better in freshman and sophomore seasons)
Dustin Ackley, 2009 (UNC): 62 G, .415/.515/.772, 21 HR
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So what you're saying is that Dustin Ackley is good
like really, really good
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 9:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Just to be annoying
Michael Aubrey: .420/.405/.733
Brad Wilkerson: .347/.538/.743
Jamie D’Antona: .360/.450/.752
by davidcameron on Jun 8, 2009 9:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And remember
I really like Ackley, and I’m rooting like crazy for the M’s to take him #2. But lots of guys have had big college numbers and failed to hit with wood.
by davidcameron on Jun 8, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilkerson had a pretty good few years
running OPSes of .840, .844, and .872 before falling off the cliff after his age-27 season; I wouldn’t exactly call him a guy who “failed to hit with wood.”
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 8, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Fahey.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how this is relevent
I was comparing Ackley to the consensus top college hitters over the past 3 drafts (completely forgetting about 2006 and Evan Longoria in the process!). I was not simply pointing out gaudy numbers out of context, and I put minimal stock in college stats anyway. Everyone here knows hitting at a professional level is an entirely different game, but I thought it was important to dispel the notion that Ackley is somehow unworthy of being the best college hitter in his class compared to guys from other years, without going into scouting reports. Hence ‘quick comparison’.
by Graham on Jun 8, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is a great idea as a back-of-the-envelope kind of comparison
both to put Ackley in context and to show the volatility that some of the ’can’t miss’ guys have.
So…
1997: JD Drew, FSU, .455/?/.960 (jaw dropping)
1998: Pat Burrell, Mia. .442/?/.888 – career stats
1999: Eric Munson, USC. .392/?/? – soph. year. He missed time in soph/jr. seasons with hand injury
2000: Joe Borchard, Stanford, .333/???/.624 – 1st college bat taken, but at #12. No real ‘best college hitter’ before the draft.
2001: Mark Teixeira, GT: .427/.547/.772
2002: Khalil Greene, Clem.: .470/.552/.877 or Drew Meyer, USC (So. Caro), .359/.411/.512 (drafted more for fielding), or Nick Swisher, OSU: .348/.470/.620
2003: Rickie Weeks, Southern: .500/.619/.987 (video game stats at a small school/conference)
2004: Stephen Drew, FSU: .344/.458/.692
2005 (Gordon, above)
2006: Evan Longoria, LBSU: .353/.468/.602 (Some scouts preferred Drew Stubbs, Tex.: .342/.439/.580)
2007: Wieters, above
2008: Alvarez, above
by marc w on Jun 8, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How strong of a conference has the ACC been this year?
by Robert on Jun 8, 2009 9:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd say strong
Between Clemson, Carolina, Virginia, FSU, GTech, and the Canes, with Wake being the only real doormat.
by BHP on Jun 8, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I watched Maryland play some, and they were rancid
However, some of the teams I saw them play were quite good. I didn’t get to see Ackley though.
by rlintott on Jun 8, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a little concerned about Ackley "only" running about a .100 IsoPa in college.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 9:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
When you're hitting .415 and slugging .770, why bother trying to draw walks?
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent point.
Though I guess I’m just worried that he’s going to rely a little too much on hitting when he gets to the majors. I’d like to see how many pitches he saw her plate appearance in college. That might abate my fears a little if I saw he was working the count.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His HR on Saturday.
He worked a full count until he got a pitch he could drive. And then crushed a backdoor slider for a opposite field HR.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't worry about something like that in the least
College numbers don’t mean very much.
by Jeff on Jun 8, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
If only he were a lefty bat and were more than a DH…
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 8, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I actually like Poythress
I grew up in GA and have stayed on top of the dawgs since moving back out this way and he is fun to watch hit, but you are right in the fact that we don’t exactly need another DH/1B in the system right now, but based on what he has shown so far(and I know it is just college stats) but I would grab him if he fell to the late 2nd early 3rd round.
by n.crees on Jun 8, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he's there at 27, I'd nab him...
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 8, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would definitly..
be tempted to but there are some many needs for the organization…you know what, what the hell, let’s grab at 27 if he is there.
by n.crees on Jun 8, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't worry...
…he won’t be there…
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 8, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there any way you can show the split of BB to IBB for all those players?
People that hit that well are often pitched around. Is Ackley drawing unintentional walks in 10% of his plate appearances or like 5%? It’s a huge difference.
by lailaihei on Jun 8, 2009 9:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ackley:
8 IBB out of 50 total walks in 2009.
6 IBB out of 53 total walks in 2008.
2 IBB out of 30 total walks in 2007.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So that puts him at a little less than average if his BB% translates straight to MLB.
Not great, but not bad.
by lailaihei on Jun 8, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if his OPS translates straight to the majors, he's Barry Bonds with defense!
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well our farm system hasn't exactly had great success in turning hackers into patient hitters...
So I was hoping he has already developed some plate discipline.
by lailaihei on Jun 8, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has plate discipline if you just watch his at bats.
If he gets a hittable pitch he should swing at it.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait how does it put him less than average?
He’s at like 15%. Unless my math is off.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was looking at last year.
Just cause I couldn’t find his AB total for this year.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
250 AB
Link.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His walk rate was about 16.2% this year.
50 BB/ ~308 PA
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok so I'm not crazy.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So in 700 PA he would have a 112 walks.
Still wondering how he would be below average.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok how did you get 10%?
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You guys should just have a Math-Off to the death
I want to poop at your house - Thingray
by tootthekazoo on Jun 8, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to mark this moment
as the first time I’ve ever out mathed someone.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for this being a red letter day.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
50 BB in 308 PA
16.2% walks in 2009
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
.511 wOBA
(though that’s using MLB linear weights)
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're totally gonna draft James Paxton #2 now
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Game over, man! Game over!
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So he's not a hacker?
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have the Nationals e-mail, right?
I seem to remember hearing about an accident to a prospect that might interest the Nats and keep them from drafting him
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The system works!
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Public school education fails again.
Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"
by bluemax on Jun 8, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Has anyone noticed that ESPN has added pitches seen to there box scores.
at least I think thats what it is.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So Kyle Gibson has a stress fracture in his right forearm
how would you guys feel about picking these players at 27?
James Paxton (LHP – Kentucky)
Matt Purke (LHP – Texas HS)
Kyle Gibson (RHP – Missouri)
Tanner Scheppers (RHP – St. Paul Saints)
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I saw that Purke wants something like
$7 million to keep him from going to College. No idea how that affects us.
Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"
by bluemax on Jun 8, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would love to take four pitchers with our #27 pick.
by Matthew on Jun 8, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would instantly re-stock our farm system with talented starters!
in all seriousness, question should have read “how would you feel about getting one of these guys at 27?”
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow I don't think that's how it works
As a baseball expert I would have though you would be aware of this.
by Poochie on Jun 8, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we could take like Aaron Crow at 2 for $3 million less than we have budgeted for Ackley or whatever
and it means we could get 2 premium guys that drop down due to signability instead, I’m all for it.
by lailaihei on Jun 8, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitchers are a far worse investment than hitters
You do not skip Ackley to take two less talented pitchers.
by Graham on Jun 8, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But... but...
baseball is 80% itching!
by Poochie on Jun 8, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
The p button is a very important button and I wished it worked a little better
by Poochie on Jun 8, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have a feeling you want a pitcher, not a belly itcher.
50!
by joof on Jun 8, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Next he'll be wanting a catcher, not someone with some sort of rash on his midsection
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 8, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obligatory NO SCRUFFY NO
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on Jun 8, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear diuretic can help with that...
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 8, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
After watching enough games in person, I would agree wholeheartedly.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on Jun 8, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Ackley is a hacker!
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may be getting confused. I can't remember the handle of the guy who hacked in here posing as Jeff
I think JeffS was REAL Jeff for a time, but that is shrouded in the past.
by rlintott on Jun 8, 2009 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In seriousness,
I would like any of those though maybe not thrilled with Paxton. He might still be there at 33.
by Matthew on Jun 8, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pass . . . Pass . . . Pass . . . Pass
None of these guys look like future closer material.
by G_ on Jun 8, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Can we please try to get through tomorrow with not too many draft-a-closer-in-the-first-round jokes, please?
they’re getting close to Fat Silva dead memes
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Well if there are more recs on bad comments, that means the relative value of recs on good comments goes up
so in short, it helps your rec+
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Willie Bloomquist: 60 G .394/.495/.646 10 HR
Stop The Wave!
by ConorGlassey on Jun 8, 2009 10:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And that's only his 1999 slash line.
1998: .414/.521/.582
1997: .356/.400/.530
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're avoiding the real question;
does Ackley have the makeup to be a major league closer?
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 8, 2009 10:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Is Grady Sizemore a valid "best-case" for Ackley?
They’re about the same size, and speedy, lefty centerfielders.
by Manzanillos Cup on Jun 8, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Probably not as good as a CF defender.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no!
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 10:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Somehow I missed this the first time around.
Thanks for linking to it.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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