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A Quick Comparison

Junior years of some top college hitters:

Alex Gordon, 2005 (Nebraska): 72 G, .372/.518/.715, 19 HR

Matt Wieters, 2007 (Georgia Tech): 57 G, .358/.490/.592, 10 HR

Pedro Alvarez, 2008 (Vanderbilt): 40 G, .317/.424/.532, 9 HR (NB: significantly better in freshman and sophomore seasons)

Dustin Ackley, 2009 (UNC): 62 G, .415/.515/.772, 21 HR

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Just to be annoying

Michael Aubrey: .420/.405/.733
Brad Wilkerson: .347/.538/.743
Jamie D’Antona: .360/.450/.752

by davidcameron on Jun 8, 2009 9:17 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

And remember

I really like Ackley, and I’m rooting like crazy for the M’s to take him #2. But lots of guys have had big college numbers and failed to hit with wood.

by davidcameron on Jun 8, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see how this is relevent

I was comparing Ackley to the consensus top college hitters over the past 3 drafts (completely forgetting about 2006 and Evan Longoria in the process!). I was not simply pointing out gaudy numbers out of context, and I put minimal stock in college stats anyway. Everyone here knows hitting at a professional level is an entirely different game, but I thought it was important to dispel the notion that Ackley is somehow unworthy of being the best college hitter in his class compared to guys from other years, without going into scouting reports. Hence ‘quick comparison’.

by Graham on Jun 8, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think this is a great idea as a back-of-the-envelope kind of comparison

both to put Ackley in context and to show the volatility that some of the ’can’t miss’ guys have.

So…
1997: JD Drew, FSU, .455/?/.960 (jaw dropping)
1998: Pat Burrell, Mia. .442/?/.888 – career stats
1999: Eric Munson, USC. .392/?/? – soph. year. He missed time in soph/jr. seasons with hand injury
2000: Joe Borchard, Stanford, .333/???/.624 – 1st college bat taken, but at #12. No real ‘best college hitter’ before the draft.
2001: Mark Teixeira, GT: .427/.547/.772
2002: Khalil Greene, Clem.: .470/.552/.877 or Drew Meyer, USC (So. Caro), .359/.411/.512 (drafted more for fielding), or Nick Swisher, OSU: .348/.470/.620
2003: Rickie Weeks, Southern: .500/.619/.987 (video game stats at a small school/conference)
2004: Stephen Drew, FSU: .344/.458/.692
2005 (Gordon, above)
2006: Evan Longoria, LBSU: .353/.468/.602 (Some scouts preferred Drew Stubbs, Tex.: .342/.439/.580)
2007: Wieters, above
2008: Alvarez, above

by marc w on Jun 8, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say strong

Between Clemson, Carolina, Virginia, FSU, GTech, and the Canes, with Wake being the only real doormat.

by BHP on Jun 8, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I watched Maryland play some, and they were rancid

However, some of the teams I saw them play were quite good. I didn’t get to see Ackley though.

by rlintott on Jun 8, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent point.

Though I guess I’m just worried that he’s going to rely a little too much on hitting when he gets to the majors. I’d like to see how many pitches he saw her plate appearance in college. That might abate my fears a little if I saw he was working the count.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

His HR on Saturday.

He worked a full count until he got a pitch he could drive. And then crushed a backdoor slider for a opposite field HR.

NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm...

.375/.468/.764 25 HR

If only he were a lefty bat and were more than a DH…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 8, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I actually like Poythress

I grew up in GA and have stayed on top of the dawgs since moving back out this way and he is fun to watch hit, but you are right in the fact that we don’t exactly need another DH/1B in the system right now, but based on what he has shown so far(and I know it is just college stats) but I would grab him if he fell to the late 2nd early 3rd round.

by n.crees on Jun 8, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would definitly..

be tempted to but there are some many needs for the organization…you know what, what the hell, let’s grab at 27 if he is there.

by n.crees on Jun 8, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't worry...

…he won’t be there…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 8, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is there any way you can show the split of BB to IBB for all those players?

People that hit that well are often pitched around. Is Ackley drawing unintentional walks in 10% of his plate appearances or like 5%? It’s a huge difference.

by lailaihei on Jun 8, 2009 9:52 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ackley:

8 IBB out of 50 total walks in 2009.
6 IBB out of 53 total walks in 2008.
2 IBB out of 30 total walks in 2007.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait how does it put him less than average?

He’s at like 15%. Unless my math is off.

NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was looking at last year.

Just cause I couldn’t find his AB total for this year.

NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

250 AB

Link.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

His walk rate was about 16.2% this year.

50 BB/ ~308 PA

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So in 700 PA he would have a 112 walks.

Still wondering how he would be below average.

NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to mark this moment

as the first time I’ve ever out mathed someone.

NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 8, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

.511 wOBA

(though that’s using MLB linear weights)

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You have the Nationals e-mail, right?

I seem to remember hearing about an accident to a prospect that might interest the Nats and keep them from drafting him

by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Public school education fails again.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 8, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So Kyle Gibson has a stress fracture in his right forearm

how would you guys feel about picking these players at 27?

James Paxton (LHP – Kentucky)
Matt Purke (LHP – Texas HS)
Kyle Gibson (RHP – Missouri)
Tanner Scheppers (RHP – St. Paul Saints)

by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I saw that Purke wants something like

$7 million to keep him from going to College. No idea how that affects us.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 8, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It would instantly re-stock our farm system with talented starters!

in all seriousness, question should have read “how would you feel about getting one of these guys at 27?”

by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow I don't think that's how it works

As a baseball expert I would have though you would be aware of this.

by Poochie on Jun 8, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we could take like Aaron Crow at 2 for $3 million less than we have budgeted for Ackley or whatever

and it means we could get 2 premium guys that drop down due to signability instead, I’m all for it.

by lailaihei on Jun 8, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pitchers are a far worse investment than hitters

You do not skip Ackley to take two less talented pitchers.

by Graham on Jun 8, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

After watching enough games in person, I would agree wholeheartedly.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 8, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In seriousness,

I would like any of those though maybe not thrilled with Paxton. He might still be there at 33.

by Matthew on Jun 8, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And that's only his 1999 slash line.

1998: .414/.521/.582
1997: .356/.400/.530

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 8, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're avoiding the real question;

does Ackley have the makeup to be a major league closer?

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 8, 2009 10:11 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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