Report Card: Position Players, May
by Matthew on Jun 7, 2009 7:08 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Report Cards
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PrintRecord: 11-18, 24-27 overall
Position: 3rd, 6.5 games back of Texas
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 14.0%
CoolStandings Odds: 4.9%
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DEFENSE
Source: FanGraphs. Standard caveats that this is only one measurement and a very small sample.
The Mariners defense compiled a 6.3 UZR in the month of April, worth a grade of A. In the past month of May, they accounted for a 3.4 UZR. Last month was topped by Franklin Gutierrez with a 4.2 UZR. In this month we had a fantastic pairing of Adrian Beltre with 6.3 runs and Ichiro Suzuki with 6.9 runs. Unfortunately, they were dragged down from the middle by Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez who combined to throw up a -9.1 UZR rating. Russell Branyan saw a dip over his nice April numbers, but that was entirely within the error category, so I am not concerned.
Ken Griffey Jr. saw an increase in arm rating by 0.1 runs for....
Moving right along. Another solid month for Wladimir Balentien who, with his defensive improvements and the hot hitting of Michael Saunders, helps to make Endy Chavez expendable should Jack Zduriencik choose so. The concern is that most of his rating came from his arm, which as runners adjust to, will drop. Range will trump in the long run.
GRADE: B
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HITTING
Click for full size. 2009 Mariners wOBA for May 2009. Source StatCorner.com
Griffey is not hitting the ball with too much authority, so his subpar average and slugging are not very much surprising, but at least his version of cratering age-related decline comes with an incredible, for the Mariners, plate patience. Pitchers are still wary of throwing Junior middle-in, so they are attacking the outer edges and Griffey has responded by letting them work. His 37.8% swing rate on the month was by far the lowest on the entire team.
Adrian Beltre had a lower home run per fly ball rate in May than Mike Sweeney or Ichiro Suzuki. Please wake up Beltre, this team needs you to do better. Next year's team needs it too.
The Grand Branyan posted a .317/.412/.614 month. At one point, I was starting to get worried because his walk rate was dropping. Branyan responded by drawing five walks in the next four games and he ended May with 17. He also struck out 31 times.
49 hits for Ichiro and nine walks, though mostly intentional, gave him a .377/.417/.515 line and a .397 wOBA, good for 6.2 runs over average. He swung and missed on just 5.6% of his swings. Ichiro seems like he's headed for another one of those years.
Gutierrez hasn't yet flashed a big upgrade in his offensive skill set that many of us believe he can take, but once again his approach at the plate is refreshing to watch. 11 walks drawn and he offered at just under 40% of pitches thrown to him, second on the team only to Griffey.
Jose Lopez + Wladimir Balentien + Yuniesky Betancourt + Rob Johnson = 26 runs below average. There are lineups where we batted them 5-8. Just in case you were wondering why we were bad.
GRADE: D-
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Good to see the outfield defense (and Beltre) holding up their end of the bargain.
The offense was painful to watch, so I am not surprised by the grade.
June is going to be a big month for Seattle. Make or break.
Well thank god Beltre's showing signs of thawing a little
As well as Jose. Sure hope it’s a legitimate return to normalcy and not a dead cat bounce… Clearly there was nothing to regret in the Putz trade, but it would have been nice to keep Valbuena around. Or at least Hulett. God, why did we release Hulett? And how did we get to this, where Hulett is actually missed?
Sigh. Draft week will be fun.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 7, 2009 7:38 PM PDT reply actions
Who knew that we should have anticipated that Yuni and Loafie would be due for a fall in 2009.
Wait, I think this wasn’t totally unanticipated. Yes, we probably should have kept Tug. How can we not have anyone but Cedeno in reserve to play SS and 2nd?
After today's game, Rob Johnson has the fourth highest wOBA among Mariners' catchers this year.
That’s gotta count for something.
Is he also...
The eighth caller and the 1,000,001st customer to come through the door?
A great read, thank you Matthew.
This type of breakdown really makes clear the bright spots and problem spots on the team.
Defensive improvements from Wlad?
His entire UZR is wrapped up in a positive arm rating. His Range Runs is -2.5 in 36 “defensive games” between LF/RF, which works out to -10.4 per 150 games. Last year, his Range Runs per 150 in RF/LF was -12.7.
He’s still a crappy defender. He’s just a crappy defender who has made a couple of nice throws now.
Gee, I wish I had pointed that out...
The concern is that most of his rating came from his arm, which as runners adjust to, will drop. Range will trump in the long run.
And no, the numbers you quoted are wrong. Through May, Balentien’s Range Runs was -1.0 through 214.4 innings, which works out to about -6.3 over 150 games assuming 9 innings per game.
That's something I've been wondering about.
Is this a new Raul, or is it [M’s Raul] + [CB Bandbox] + [Switch to NL] + [Luck]?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I meant more the switch to pitchers that haven't figured him out,
but for the sake of your strawman, why not?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I could say the same, I'm just less sarcastic about it.
There is a difference in leagues, but I did not mean to imply that it was an effect, although I can see how it could be construed that way.
Even if you take it in that fashion, I don’t think it would have implied that it was the main, only or biggest cause, and in fact it was one in a list of reasons for his change in performance.
I could think of a few other things that might effect it as well, but I didn’t think any of them were measurable enough to include.
I was just looking to see if the numbers added up or not, and that’s something that I know I would botch on my own.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Thank you very much, sir.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
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