Interesting blog on BP and the evolution of statistics

by Brian Floyd on Jun 5, 2009 3:54 PM PDT

Deadspin threw out a quick writeup on the evolution of baseball prospectus, a comparison to moneyball, and who the leaders in baseball statistics are. Of note in the article is the praise of Dave Cameron as one of the cutting edge baseball stat guys. They basically say that Dave is the brightest young sabermetric stars of today (don't blush Dave).

It goes on to explain how THT and Fangraphs have supplanted BP in many areas of work, all while not charging a subscription fee. It's interesting how long BP has been around, well before Moneyball, and how teams started "raiding" BP and giving front office jobs to their writers. It's also interesting that some of the big stats guys are talking about moving beyond sports, as well. I'm wondering what kind of things they could move into.

Edit: Wanted to add how spoiled we are as M's fans to have guys like Dave, Jeff, Matthew, and Graham. Don't know how we got lucky to have all these guys follow the M's and write a good amount of material on them but it adds alot to the fan experience.

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Yeah I agree with the article.

After most of the good writers left, it seemed to me that BP turned into the Will Carroll show. I haven’t checked the site in months, even though I think I might have a little time left on my last subscription. Fangraphs is where I go to get my baseball nerd on. Congrats to Dave, Matthew, and everyone else on the recognition of your efforts.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Jun 5, 2009 4:15 PM PDT reply actions

Though on Dave, they didn't mention USSM

and he still posts a lot of material there.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 5, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Will Carroll::Injury Guru

Graham::King of Siam

by Graham MacAree on Jun 5, 2009 4:23 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

Leading =! best

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jun 5, 2009 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions

He's not an injury guru, he's a bullshit artist

There’s nothing guru about him

by Graham MacAree on Jun 5, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions

A bullshit guru?

50!

by joof on Jun 5, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions

That's is overstating the case.

He has done a tremendous amount of work networking with physical trainers and with club sources. He gets better info than most on what is ailing players. When he steps into mechanical analysis, yes, that’s pure speculation and should be ignored. His personality can, I’ve been told, leave a lot to be desired and his smugness is amazingly irritating and without merit, but he has probably done more research into injuries than anyone.

by Matthew on Jun 5, 2009 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions

What kinds of things?

Well, Nate Silver made himself a heck of a name in political analysis last year . . .

by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 5, 2009 6:56 PM PDT reply actions

Oops--hadn't read the article yet.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 5, 2009 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions

...

I also heard from several different people that Dave Cameron, who writes primarily for Fangraphs and the Wall Street Journal, is the closest thing on the Web to a proto-Silver—the most-promising young sabermetrician writing today.

Awesome.

by Decatur on Jun 5, 2009 9:10 PM PDT reply actions

For what it's worth, I think it's a gross mischaracterization to call Dave a sabermetrician

Dave’s a baseball writer/analyst. That’s it. The fact that he’s proficient in the new stats and how to use them does not make him a ‘sabermetrician’ it makes him a writer and analyst who has a huge advantage over most other writers and analysts working today. I could be wrong on this, but so far as I know Dave does not do very much actual SABR research, by which I mean the optimization of formulas and development of novel, stats based systems of evaluation etc. He’s not so much on the R&D side of things as on the review, implement, and distribute knowledge side of things.

I hope I’m not going to piss people off (well, Dave specifically) here by going on about my perception of what he does. But there’s something at issue here. When ‘sabermetrician’ is applied to guys like Dave, it implies that numbers is all he does. When in fact, he watches a ton of baseball, talks to scouts and FO personnel, thinks with his head and also uses numbers where appropriate to back up his claims. Putting that tag on him suggests that you cannot be a baseball writer and into sabermetrics at the same time; either you’re one or the other.

Maybe that was a bit of a rant. I’ll go back to my manifesto now, thanks.

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 7, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

There are good points here.

But Dave has been at the forefront of selecting which stats should be viewed as worthwhile. While he may not be the guy creating the stats, he knows the inner workings and has the mind and the persuasive ability to convince others which stats should be considered worthwhile. I fully understand what you’re saying, but I think you’re defining “sabermetrician” too narrowly.

by Teej on Jun 8, 2009 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions

Rereading my own comment,

you’re right. But as Dan points out below, calling him a proto-Silver is just not right and I think I was reacting more to that than the sabermetrician tag. Makes it sound like he’s working on PECOTA2.0, which is pretty off base.

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 8, 2009 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions

A sabermetrician isn’t necessarily one who develops new statistics. Sabermetrics is simply the study of objective facts about baseball. David doesn’t develop statistics, but he applies objective facts, so it seems proper to call him a sabermetrician.

Calling David some kind of young new gun is pretty poor research, to be honest. Cameron’s not some wet-behind-the-ears stathead, he’s been writing on the internet for more than a decade (StrikeThree, with Cameron, Zumsteg, Barker, and and Paisley was very popular in its day) and is a former BP writer who predated Nate.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

by D.Szymborski on Jun 8, 2009 6:03 AM PDT up reply actions