J.J. Putz Is What We Feared He Was And Thus Why We Traded Him
by Matthew on Jun 5, 2009 12:55 PM PDT
in Miscellaneous
Email
Print
A.K.A. he's hurt. Officially.
Mets right-hander J.J. Putz will undergo surgery Tuesday to remove a bone spur in his pitching elbow, according to a major-league source. Putz will be unable to throw for six weeks and likely will be out 8 to 10 weeks, the source said. He would return in early to mid-August if he meets the 8- to 10-week timetable.
Jason Vargas, 0.2 WAR
Franklin Gutierrez, 1.2 WAR
Ronny Cedeno, -0.3 WAR
Garrett Olson, -0.1 WAR
Endy Chavez, 0.5 WAR
Mike Carp, .432 wOBA in AAA
Ezequiel Carrera, .428 wOBA in AA
TOTAL: 1.6 WAR + 2 well hitting prospects
J.J. Putz, 0 WAR
Sean Green, 0.2 WAR
Jeremy Reed, 0.0 WAR
Luis Valbuena, .426 wOBA in AAA, -0.5 WAR in MLB
TOTAL: -0.3 WAR + 1 well hitting prospect
86 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Said Rotoworld on the day of the trade:
Chavez is no asset at his salary, but Carp is an intriguing first base prospect and Gutierrez has quite a bit of upside. It still doesn’t seem like enough of a return for Putz.
That's what I'm saying.
Gutz is a bad fantasy player — as is Endy — so that probably colored their assessment of the trade.
Hilariously this morning I was reading another site I frequent
and the Mets guy there was hoping Putz wasn’t hurt yesterday because he thought he was tradeable since he had racked up some saves.
I told him that the only team that thought Putz had any value was the Mets as everyone else realized he hasn’t been healthy in over a year.
Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"
This is what I find so weird
2007: 65.2% strikes, 5% BB
2009: 65.3% strikes (excluding 4 IBB), 11% uBB
Somebody please explain this.
People swinging way less at his pitches out of the zone.
Leading to less Ks, leading to longer counts, leading to inevitable more walks.
That would be my theory anyways.
Pretty hard to test, but there is a relationship between strikeouts and walks.
That was my first guess too, as his '09 swinging strikes are 73% of last year's
But for him to retain the same strike rate he’d therefore have to be pounding the zone
by Graham MacAree on Jun 5, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
He's also having more pitches put into play though
The whole thing is strange. I can understand a worse walk rate, but more than doubled?
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 5, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, when he throws strikes, people put them in play.
His contact rate has jumped, his O-swing rate has fallen, and his K rate is way down.
He’s throwing the same number of out-of-zone pitches, but if people don’t swing, and if they pound whatever IS in the zone, this makes perfect sense to me. Especially considering that the overall numbers of walks aren’t huge, it’s easy to get a ‘doubling’ of a rate stat like this.
Also consider that his fastball velocity is down to 93.5
So those pitches in the zone are just easier to hit. It seemed to me that even in 2007, at a certain point batters just stopped swinging so much at his stuff out of the zone, getting him into deeper counts. But his control was a little better, as was his stuff, so it resulted in more swinging strikes. I’m not basing this on anything but my eyes and memories, so it’s possible I’m totally wrong, but I remember worrying about JJ’s command in about August of 2007. A slight loss in stuff could be a viable reason for the spike in BB’s, right?
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
He's actually putting more balls in the zone this year than he did in 2007
57.9% to 53.6%.
His contact rate and number of pitches in the zone would suggest fewer walks, not more. Yeah, they’re not swinging as often at his offspeed stuff off the plate, but if his overall number of strikes is the same, then there’s no good reason why his walk rate should be this much higher.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 5, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Basically I just think that over a larger sample he'd get a more normal distribution of strikes and balls
and his K and BB numbers would look a lot different.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 5, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow
After a 1-0 count JJ is 533% more likely to walk a batter than after an 0-1 count
by Graham MacAree on Jun 5, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
That’s nuts. I feel like his walks have probably been of the quick 4- and 5-pitch variety.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 5, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know....
This seems like a decent guess as to what would happen when a player loses his stuff. Balls in the zone get hit, balls out of the zone are taken (not swung at), and you get fewer Ks, more hits, and more walks.
Specifically, his FB just doesn’t have any life left. In 2007, batters were frozen by the FB. Now, they hammer it. So batters can tee off on the FB, and take his split (which still looks OK by linear weights). Given the movement on it, it’s not surprising that people can work walks if they simply refuse to swing at anything bendy.
What’s actually sort of amazing (in hindsight) is that he still got so many Ks in 2008.
Look at his 2009 by-count splits
Something is really weird there
by Graham MacAree on Jun 5, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but look at it in 2008.
I don’t have a sense of what’s normal in a split like this, however….
By the way, where are you looking at these? b-ref?
Are they throwing out the iBBs?
Let's not exaggerate things
We’re talking about a drop in OSwing% from 25% to 18%. That’s significant, but we’re only talking about 15 swings so far. 15 swings out of 526 pitches.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 5, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait, are we comparing 09 to 08 or to 07?
So far, it’s only 15 swings, but he’s gone from 3rd among MLB relievers in 06, to middle of the pack in 07-08 to now, when he’s in the bottom 10% or so. That’s a collapse, and given his walk rate was so low, it just seems to me that this kind of outcome can’t be seen as that anomalous.
I think it’d be really interesting to see the results by pitch (I know you’re in a better place now, Josh Kalk, but I miss you).
I was comparing to 07
He just had the same OSwing% in 2007 and 2008.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 5, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Better plate discipline amongst the competition?
I mean, y’know, Angels… and stuff. I haven’t looked, but is there a real “hacker” team amongst the NL East or.. well.. any NL team they’ve played enough to influence the stats?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 5, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps pitches that used to be swung on and missed are getting fouled off now, as they are easier to hit.
Which so the strikes are still there, but the at bats are extended in stead of ended by a strike out. And then those extended at bats end with a walk due to worse control or command or something?
50!
Doesn't look like it.
The % of pitches that batters foul off is roughly the same (actually a little lower) now as it was in ‘06/’07. The % of pitches put in play is higher, back up to his ‘04/’05.
I still can't believe we got as much for him as we did.
He looked like he was finished last year.
they did
Hire Steve Phillips as a GM, that taint will last a lot longer than Bill Bavasi (unless Bavasi ends up in a national sports booth .)
Here’s hoping they trade Beltran or something.
Guys, lets pause for a minute and soak in the glory
….
As an M’s fan, we don’t get to feel this very often.
Get used to it.
Zduriencik isn’t Bavasi. The days of dreading the July deadline and winter meetings are officially over.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 5, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
And you forgot Cleto
Huzzah
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
Neglected to list him due to not piching
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
Is his visa still giving him problems, or is he injured?
by eponymous_coward on Jun 5, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Apparently there's something pretty big going on
though I’m not clear what, and Cleto’s caught in the middle of it.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 5, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Frankly, did anyone expect JJ to go all 2007 when he joined the Mets?
Not I.
by .Taylor on Jun 5, 2009 1:57 PM PDT reply actions
Nor I
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
Omar?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I remember some commentators saying at the time
that Zduriencik just jumped at the first offer that he liked, and that he shouldn’t have done that. This would be why he did — he couldn’t afford to overreach and have the deal fall through, because once the season started, it was probable that Putz’ value was going to crater like this.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 5, 2009 2:57 PM PDT reply actions
If the stories are right
Jack Z got what he wanted in Gutierrez. Supposedly Omar MInaya was what made that trade work to involve Cleveland.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 5, 2009 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Remarkably
The most amazing part of the Putz trade is Zduriencik specifically wanting Franklin Gutierrez.
Zduriencik wanted a premium OF
A previously rumored trade involving Detroit fell though presumably due to the lack of one. In addition, the actual deal was initially just a two-team trade with the Mets but Zduriencik insisted on bringing back a premium OF (mainly Gutz). Omar got on the phone with Cleveland and got the wheels turning to make it a three-team trade.
Rumor is he wanted Fernando Perez from the Rays and the interest in Joyce was
as a carrot for Tampa.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 5, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Is Fernando Perez that good?
I’ve never heard of him until I today.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Fernando-Perez.shtml
If he’s a defensive wizard he might be good, but as a 25 year old rookie I can’t imagine he’d be much of an improvement over Gutz.
Nando is a defensive wizard. He's runs good routes and may be the fastest guy on the Rays team. A noodle for an arm though.
He’s hurt right now and it’s a bad wrist injury, so that’s really bad, but when he was healthy he was a plus CF. His bat isn’t special, he’s a switch hitter who really struggles left handed, but is actually pretty good RH.
Tools Whore
I didn't think he was after Gutierrez specifically.
That’s why he was better than Bavasi. Bavasi would say “I want that guy” and go get him, regardless of the cost. Zduriencik said “I want a good centerfielder” and used options to get Gutierrez.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 5, 2009 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Quick question.
Was there any real reason for the Mets wanting both Putz and K-Rod? I know there bullpen was bad last year but was is the value in two closers. I feel that the Mariners by themselves prove having a lot of closer make don’t make a good bullpen.
Thug Life
It wasn't so much "getting two closers"
As much as it was getting “proven” arms to fortify the bullpen. Obviously the Mets had dreams of Green, Putz, K-Rod regularly working 7-8-9. After seeing their bullpen collapse causing their season to end in heartbreak twice in a row they wanted to nail down this issue as thoroughly as possible.
I've often wondered how Bavasi would do as a pitching scout.
It’s incredible how the guy has such a keen eye for bullpen talent, yet he adores garbage SPers.
Not to rosterbate, but considering how their bullpen still isn’t stellar & how left handed Philadelphia is, a package of Washburn and Aardsma to the NYM makes a lot of sense to me.
Additionally, other players who are not already on the Mariners
and other players who will not play in the 2009 All-Star game
someone
that can play a little shortstop.
Betan is fielding like pre 08 Jeter and hitting like his mom, a good combination.
Is it possible the Mets don't trust us anymore?
Or do teams just forgive and forget after getting jived in a trade?
Thug Life
Don't forget Sean Green
He’s been giving the Mets some good innings of late, big turn around from the beginning of the season. It looks like he’ll fill in the void left by JJ.
.
J.J. Putz, 0 WAR
Sean Green, 0.2 WAR
Jeremy Reed, 0.0 WAR
Luis Valbuena, .426 wOBA in AAA, -0.5 WAR in MLB
TOTAL: -0.3 WAR + 1 well hitting prospect
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 5, 2009 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Jeremy Reed is a solid OF defender
He’s been doing a great job in the OF and earlier in the season where he would come in for Daniel Murphy, with all these injuries, they are lucky to have him.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
