Don't Put Too Much Faith In Draft Rumours
by Graham MacAree on Jun 4, 2009 2:13 PM PDT
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... unless of course, they come from the horse's mouth. Stone has a pretty interesting article up right now talking about Zduriencik's role in the draft (i.e. employing Tom McNamara and letting him do his own thing rather than be super-involved in micromanagement). There was also a quote from the scouting director himself that seems to dispel the idea that the Mariners are torn between UNC 1B/OF Dustin Ackley and a pitcher:
"We have the boards set up, and we're going over as many guys as possible," McNamara said. "We're doing the best we can to get the right player. We feel pretty comfortable about two [the second overall pick[. We're working on 27 and 33 today, and working our way down.
They're not going to say who it is that they're sure about at #2, of course (McNamara declined to even give an appraisal of Stephen Strasburg beyond "He's got a good arm"). But here's hoping it's Dustin Ackley, as he's pretty clearly the #2 prospect in the draft and has managed to answer questions about his power and ease some doubts as to where he'll end up playing for a big league team. Baseball America's Jim Callis recently threw out a Todd Helton(!!) comparison. If we end up with Ackley in the draft, it'll be time to get super-excited. Less so if we don't.
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Wouldn't even specify which arm
or if the arm was Strasburg’s own, or somebody else’s that Strasburg happened to have.
by Matthew on Jun 4, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
no sense tipping your hand too early in these contentious times
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 4, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm
So he’s comparable to Raul Ibanez?
I fucking hate you Mariners
Todd Helton with more defensive value is something like a Hall of Fame player
Heck I’d be satisfied with Good Erstad
Imagine how amazing he'd be in CF.
Or even a corner.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 4, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I should apologize to all those Angels fans I mocked because of the Erstad extension
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 4, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
BUT HE PLAYED FOOTBALL!
He was gritty! He was like Willie, except with the extra annoyance of being an everyday player.
angels fan in seattle
I should ask, but are those rumours of him being able to handle second
resemble anything that’s reliable?
Athletically he probably could,
but it would be pretty stupid unless he flat out cannot play the OF. Which by all accounts, he can.
I think the only reason would be further arm problems
since 2B’s probably easier on the arm than any other position except 1B (and even in that case, the throws are shorter).
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 4, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
They're based on his college coach's assessment.
I’ve never seen him play defense, but if he can handle 2B he can probably handle CF and CF is a more valuable position. With that being said I have no problem giving it a shot at least part time in the minors, because it never hurts to have positional flexibility. If there’s a spot at 2B before there’s a spot in CF and his bat is ready it’s one more way to get him in the lineup.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 4, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
No, but you can see if he has the raw ability necessary and if so play him at 2B the majority of the time.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 4, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Depending on how solid his OF instincts are of course.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 4, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Ms. Jeff still has not gotten back to me re: leaving Jeff for me
so for now the insults are on hold
Well yes it's hard to play baseball while disemboweled
I am confused as to why you would feel the need to point this out
by Graham MacAree on Jun 4, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Usually it's harder to find top rate hitters at second than center
But if his defensive tools are much better suited to center then yes, it’d would probably be dumb to stall his development try to convert him to second base
CFers have out OPSed second basemen every year this decade
although, yes, the difference the last few seasons in small.
A lot of commentators are claiming that Ackley is 'near ML ready'.
If he does sign for us, do you think he would be rushed to the Majors like Player BB, or will the Mariners take a slower approach? How did Jack handle Hardy, Fielder and Braun in this respect?
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
He won't be rushed
If he comes up here it’ll be because he’s ready to take a starting job. I’d guess the beginning of 2011 sounds about right, but if he signs early and takes a massive dump over the minors he might even get called up at the tail end of 2010.
by Graham MacAree on Jun 4, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I doubt he would be rushed, and the important difference between Ackley and Morrow (assuming his near-readiness is accurate)
is that Morrow wasn’t actually ML ready when he was called up.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 4, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
It's a tough comparison considering Braun was a college jr. and Hardy/Fielder were HS kids.
In general, the Brewers were nowhere near as aggressive with promotions as the M’s. They’ve moved Mat Gamel quite slowly, and Fielder/Hardy had plenty of time in the minors, and Braun had too much, if anything.
It’ll be interesting to see if the M’s move from among the most aggressive orgs in baseball (in terms of promoting young players) to one of the most cautious in only a year or two.
I wonder how that will pan out.
We’re already seeing some of it with the Lumberkings rotation starting out the year as well as their and the Mavericks’ outfields. They’ve even shipped a number of DSL players who were in Arizona last season back to the island, which sucks for them.
I guess my concern is that if they move the prospects along slowly, will we get to a point where we have the same complaints about someone tearing up the PCL and taking too long to join the big club?
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Jun 4, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, and with Jharmidy.
And yes, I think we will have those complaints. We had one at this point last year, and we’re around a month from having another round of complaints (if Saunders is still killing the ball and if M’s LF OPS is still <700), plus when Clement is catching again.
Wait, so you believed that shit about some special 'sour ale?'
Do you have hours/days you can’t remember?
I really don't think the poll was necessary because if anyone had chosen someone else and proclaimed it
Other people would have rushed to tell that person that Ackley is definitely the number 2 pick and it’s wrong to think otherwise. Why give us an option if we don’t really have an option?
Margin of error.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Jun 4, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
My guess? It doesn't round up
just lops off the third digit.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 4, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions
That would work now
but earlier, there were only votes for three options and the listed percentages only added up to 98%. That’s why I’m figuring that the software doesn’t round at all, that it just drops the digits after the first two.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 5, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions
ESPN, Stark, grains of salt, blah, blah
Keith Law mentioned in his chat that he “got a note from Jason” that “the Mariners are 50/50 on Ackley and one other guy.”
Here's what I don't get
If the source is an insider, what’s the point of throwing out smoke screens in a draft where you can’t trade picks? Contract negotiations?
If the ‘source’ is fake or is just speculating, what the hell’s the point in spreading around misinformation through a Keith Law chat wrap?
Contract negotiations would be the reason, yes
Then too, it’s possible that what Churchill got was wishful thinking from that scout (who really wants the brass to take his pitcher over Ackley, say) rather than what McNamara is really thinking.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 4, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Churchill says we're definitely not picking Ackley?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I don't think he said that
but it seems to me that Churchill has really been pulling against the M’s taking Ackley all the way along, and looking for every possible reason and justification for them to take someone else. He may be right, but I don’t think he’s a trustworthy source on this point; even if he ends up being right on the results, I think he’s arrived at that conclusion by a flawed process.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 5, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I wasn't being serious.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
WHAT???
Jason LOVES Ackley. He’s just being fed all kinds of info from people within and without the organization.
All Jason’s said is that it’s not 100% certain they’ll pick Ackley. What’s so hard to understand about that?
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 5, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
As opposed to the scouting director of the Seattle Mariners saying that they're pretty sure in their #2
by Graham MacAree on Jun 4, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Right...
But they haven’t said WHO that #2 is…
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 5, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
"Comfortable" != "Pretty sure"
They might like 2-3 guys at #2, and have a pretty good idea for who they’re going to take. But there are soooo many factors that come into play as to who they pick and why.
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 5, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
That's not how I interpret that quote at all
I also assume that Mariner front office isn’t a collection of alzheimeric baboons so my perception is a little warped in that regard
by Graham MacAree on Jun 5, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I bet they have the entire top half of their draft scripted out if not the whole thing
That’s what I do when I draft, and I’m not even a professional. I would be astounded if they were waffling on two guys this close to draft day.
Um... For some reason my brain had you asking a completely different question.
I was answering “who do you expect them to pick” for whatever reason. I retract my answer and replace it with Ackley, since he is the one I would like to see picked.
...and now I'm here
Yeah, I do.
It always seems like the GMs of poor hitting teams would prefer to choose a pitcher unless forced into another option – especially our team. What our current GM will do, I have no idea, but it will still take me a while to have faith in the process until I start to see results that challenge my automatic assumptions.
Also, Ackley would make me happy, and the Mariners hate happiness.
...and now I'm here
Also, the final point about hating happiness is really my only reason for that guess.
The rest is just a fancy way of saying “I have no idea.”
...and now I'm here
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