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Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

Seattle: 39-36
New York: 43-32

SUMMARY

MARINERS YANKEES EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-45.9 (29th)
61.0 (2nd) NYA
FIELDING (UZR)
22.6 (5th)
-17.6 (18th)
SEA
ROTATION (pRAA)
8.2 (12th) -15.3 (24th)
SEA
BULLPEN (pRAA)
-13.6 (25th) -11.1 (24th)
NYA
OVERALL(RAA)
-28.7 17.0
New York







Another stellar week for the defense, rising four more runs. Expect the trend to start reversing with Beltre removed from third base, where he had racked up an outstanding 8.7 UZR to date. His loss on defense will be felt greatly. Even with his horrid start to the season, his loss on offense is likely to be felt if the team goes with this retarded idea of Jose Lopez and/or Chris Woodward. God that is dumb.

Offense. eeeeeeep. Granted, the Yankees offense will likely diminish in perceived potency once we are able to gather enough of a sample size to properly determine the park factors on New Yankee Stadium, factors that are almost assuredly friendly to the hitters, and retroactively apply them. That does not do much to us now though.

We won a series on the road against the best team in baseball and our overall numbers shifted upward by 1.2 runs, most of that part of the week-long defensive update. Such is the result of being blown out in your one loss.

 

GAMES

Game 1: Brandon Morrow vs. Joba Chamberlain
Game 2: Jarrod Washburn* vs. Andy Pettitte*
Game 3: Jason Vargas* vs. CC Sabathia*

With a roughly equal number of pitches between 2008 and 2009 in the rotation, we have a decent comparison for Joba Chamberlain. The comparison is not pretty. His swinging strike rate has fallen from 10.7% to 7.9% and his ball percentage has risen from 36.3% to 41.2%. To counter that, his ground ball rate has risen a tad and the line drive rate has dropped, though the latter is certainly far more volatile.

Andy Pettitte's last three tRA+s: 107, 107 and 108. This year, it is down to 88 as his swinging strike rate has fallen a point and his ball% has risen a couple ticks. Correspondingly, the strikeouts are down and the walks are up, much like with Joba above. Unlike Joba, Pettitte's ground ball rate has actually fallen.

CC Sabathia posted tRAs of 2.96 and 2.95 the past two seasons. This year, it is up to 4.18. Notice a pattern going on here? Guess what has happened to his missed bat and ball rates? A supressed BABIP is helping to mark Sabathia's decline to the general public. Not a great sign for the first year of a seven-year, $161-million contract. Perhaps 500 innings pitched over the past two years are taking their toll? It really would not surprise me to see Sabathia miss a full year's worth of starts over the life of his Yankee contract.

Star-divide

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Moonglow Weizenbock
Victory Brewing Company. Downington, PA

Think hefe's are a touch too light and bocks a touch too dark? Well then, combine them! This amber-colored beer comes packed with lots of head and lacing. The aroma is wheaty and perhaps honey with a faint raspberry fruit kick. On the taste, the malts come through and you get a slightly sugary note to match and complement the aroma rather than the thin and slightly acidic taste you normally get from fruity smelling beers.

Side note, many people here are fans of the Prima Pils. However, there's word that Victory's newest pils, Sapphire, is supposed to be even better. Keep an eye or an ear out for it.

0 recs  |  Comment 95 comments |

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Mmmm

Eyes and ears are out. Can’t wait to try Sapphire!

IF I WAS MANAGER I'D HAVE A FIST FIGHT WITH YUNI RIGHT NOW AND KNOCK HIS FUCKING MONKEY HEAD CLEAN OFF (~EM)

by seattlecougar on Jun 30, 2009 12:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This pitching report is getting my hopes up.

And I don’t like it. I have to fight this feeling.

I actually bought a Betancourt t-shirt.

by Hopefulmsfan on Jun 30, 2009 12:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

♫ 'Cause I cant fight this feeling anymore ♫

Ive forgotten what I started fighting for
And if I have to crawl upon the floor
Come crashing through your door
Baby, I cant fight this feeling anymore

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Jun 30, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's time to bring this ship into the shore

And throw away the oars foooooooooooooooorever

Ronny, TAKE

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jun 30, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am quite confident about this series for some strange reason.

Washburn dominated the Yanks in my first ever game back in 2007, and I seem to remember him having some success in other games against their lefty-heavy lineup. Morrow’s pitch count issues should have improved as well, and lets hope he has as nice a game against them as he did last year. No nasty men named Wilson around this time to punch him in the balls…

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jun 30, 2009 12:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

There's a brewery in Friday Harbor that makes a bacon beer

It is quite tasty.

I never really liked the old tagline.

CougCenter

by Dancing Football on Jun 30, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would be interested in trying this

as much as I generally dislike flavored beers I love bacon so I’d give it a shot.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jun 30, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sad thing is

You have to go to Friday Harbor to buy it. I wanted to take some home, but their brewer was on vacation so they did not have any bottles made up. They don’t sell any of their beer in stores.

I never really liked the old tagline.

CougCenter

by Dancing Football on Jun 30, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's the brewery?

I have family up ‘round those parts, it’s not unheard of for me to be up that way.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jun 30, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

San Juan Brewing Company

I never really liked the old tagline.

CougCenter

by Dancing Football on Jun 30, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duly noted. Cheers.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jun 30, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I remember reading pre-season rankings of free agent signings

and they ranked Branyan in the ten worst, citing SafeCo’s homerun suppressing nature(for lefties?), and CC in the top ten best. Their best reason for supporting the Sabathia signing was something like “NYY can afford it”.

by kentcheesehead on Jun 30, 2009 12:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Let's go Washburninator

Time to Washburninate the Yankees, and the thatched roof cottages.

by appleshampoo on Jun 30, 2009 12:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Where can I find the average speed of Joba's fastball last year vs this year?

In the games I’ve seen he seems to be working with a 91-93 mph fastball with not much movement. I’d feel a little better about our chances if we had more patience as Chamberlein walks like 5 guys per game if I’m not mistaken.

Outside of the Sabathia vs Vargas mismatch, I think we can have a shot in the other two games, and if we take one I’ll be pleased.

Just don’t want to erase the work we did in LA, by getting swept by either of these two teams coming up.

A 4-5 roadtrip is a success in my opinion

by Rudy4three on Jun 30, 2009 12:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Joba's fastball

FanGraphs Player pitch info

Looks like he was at 95 last year, 92.4 this year.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Jun 30, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ouch.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 30, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not even the move to the rotation that did it

95.1 out of the bullpen vs. 94.9 out of the rotation last year. Now he’s just – his fastball has the exact same movement, but it’s missing 3 ticks.

by Jeff on Jun 30, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Normally we'd look at that as a symptom of one or two things

1). He’s slowing down intentionally to try to get better control / command.

2). Something’s physically wrong. Whether it’s injury or he’s just feeling the strain of throwing that hard for too many innings

I think we ran rule out 1.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 30, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He did have the shoulder thing last year.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 30, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bada bing.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 30, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you honestly believe that?

I don’t think 3mph disappear for no reason. Even if the answer is currently “I don’t know what it is”, that doesn’t mean it’s nothing.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 30, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough.

I did limit it to only two options, which, to me, were the two most likely possibilities.

Of course, if I really want to be reckless, I could just make a blog post about Joba Chamberlain maybe being off the roids.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 30, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two things Im sure will be highlighted by Michael Kay on the YES network tonight.

1)There will be a comment about Morrow throwing 95-98 in the middle innings of this game, and a reference to how that’s what they expected from Joba in the rotation. They are obsessed with his velocity here in NY

2)He’ll point out Branyan’s strikeout propensity over and over again to demean him as a player

by Rudy4three on Jun 30, 2009 12:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm. What will be Michael Kay's HR call for Eric Hinske?

It’s a blinske from Hinske!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hinske business!!!!!! From Erick Hinske!!!!!!

by msb on Jun 30, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's

John Sterling, Kay just say Seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeya for any ball no matter who hits it. (ok he sometimes throw in some other stuff .but he’s not as ridiculas with it as Sterling.

by RollingWave on Jul 1, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wonder what the new park's factors for BB/K will be.

Seems odd that all three pitchers will suffer the exact same symptoms at once…

But this looks pretty good to me. A good outing by Washburn against the Yankees should make him that much mroe sexy to pitching hungry contenders and it’s always nice to have two lefty opponents in a series. No more getting owned by random AAAsshole with a sinker. No, if we get owned here it’ll be by guys with talent.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 30, 2009 12:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought about park factors, too, but...

Joba’s fastball velocity dropping probably isn’t a product of the new park and Pettitte’s age may simply be a factor for him. Sabathia might also be an outside factor.

I guess time will tell.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 30, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm looking forward to wokring during this whole series.

I have a feeling it’s going to be painful.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 30, 2009 1:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh.... god...

Ichiro RF
Branyan 1B
Lopez 2B
Griffey LF
Sweeney DH
Guti CF
Woodward 3B
Johjima C
Cedeno SS

by Matthew on Jun 30, 2009 1:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh the Griffey to LF, Sweeney to DH move I was advocating the other day

until it was pointed out to me how counterproductive it really is.

Nice job Wak…

I really thought we’d see Langerhans in LF today

by Rudy4three on Jun 30, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's just bland, corporate, and blah

When I used to clean houses for a living, one of my clients was the CEO of a pretty major company, and his house was all sorts of beige and white – even the art on the walls was all beige/brownish/tan. I realized at that point that the more money you have the more bland your tastes tend to be, for some reason, and New Yankee Stadium seems to be the embodiment of that. There’s nothing about it that is welcoming and human-scaled, and it doesn’t seem to be at all interesting.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jun 30, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It looks boxy, concretely, and aluminumy

That and there’s to many ads, and the monitors are too big and block any view of the city. Why not just play in a dome or at Riverfront?

by Poochie on Jun 30, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's not much to view north of 161st St so there's that

but yeah, there’s really nothing that marks this as a unique place.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jun 30, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

from Drayer:

“Am I In The Right Place? Seriously! This place looks like the other place. Like they took a pressure washer to it, got some new upholstery, and, well that’s about it! Crazy. Guess that is what a billion plus will by you.

No, it just looks that way from the new and improved press box. The concourses are much nicer and the facade is gleaming. The other one is sitting across the street with scaffolding all over it. Caught a glimpse of the inside and it looked like the same old moldy stadium that they could easily play a ball game in tonight. Have yet to see Mystique or Aura."

by msb on Jun 30, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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