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Around SBN: Win or Lose, Boston Celtics' New Big 3 Era A Success

26-28, Summary

And on a night during which he both doubled and homered, it'll be Adrian Beltre's single through a drawn-in infield that people remember. But whether or not that does him justice doesn't really matter; what matters is that, in a break from the course of the rest of the season, he'll be remembered for something successful, and after two months of debilitating failure, I have to imagine that feels pretty good.

As a matter of fact, given everything that Beltre did tonight, there might not be any point in mentioning anyone else should you go on to relay the story of this game to a friend. Luke Scott's sinister business and the overturned home run notwithstanding, Beltre was involved in many of the most critical events in the game. His double in the first put two men in scoring position. His mammoth homer in the third gave the Mariners the lead. His clumsy error on a should-be double play grounder in the fourth loaded the bases for Baltimore with one out. His feeble groundout with the bases loaded in the seventh kept it a tie game. And, of course, his single in the ninth sent everyone home. Those five events carried with them a total win expectancy swing of 67.9%, which makes me wonder just how differently this all would've gone had we started someone else at third base. One player ordinarily doesn't make that much of a difference, but Beltre seemed to find himself in the middle of everything.

Seeing Beltre hit that homer as hard as he did confirms to me that the cause for his struggles has been in his head, rather than his body. Players who are broken don't do that to fastballs at their eyes. So with that in mind, it'll be interesting to see what Beltre takes out of this game, as far as his confidence is concerned. The two extra-base hits were followed by a fluky error, a strikeout, and an ugly at bat with the bases loaded, and it would've been easy for him to get down on himself. In fact, when he went up to the plate in the ninth, it looked like swinging was the absolute last thing he wanted to do. It looked to me like he didn't want to swing unless it was necessary. That's not normal Beltre. So for him to then get the bat on the ball and foul off two tough pitches before singling home the winning run...I don't care if that grounder is a double play with the infield at normal depth. That's a big hit in a big situation for Beltre, and hopefully he's able to build off of that and continue reverting back to the player we all expected him to be. He's followed an 0-21 skid by hitting .368/.400/.509 since May 21st, and if this means he's back, then there may be some salvaging of this season yet.

That home run, by the way, is why, no matter how much grief I give Beltre for swinging at garbage, I'll never be able to hate him. He took a fastball several inches above the upper boundary of the strike zone and put a charge into it the way few players can. Beltre swings at a lot of bad pitches, but he's been able to remain somewhat successful in spite of that tendency because every so often he'll put one of them in the seats. Remember the walk-off home run he hit against the Yankees a few years back on the fastball above his nose? He's a different kind of ballplayer.

Beltre, of course, wasn't literally involved in everything important. I'm just pressed for time and wanted to talk about him for a little while since he's finally starting to look like himself again. As far as Jason Vargas is concerned, the Orioles were barely hitting him. They hit one home run, one fly out, one pop up, and 15 groundballs, and although Vargas has never been known as a groundballer at any level, they came in handy and kept the Orioles from having any big innings. This is just the latest start in which Vargas has looked and felt unsustainably comfortable. His 1.93 ERA is an absolute joke, but given the nightmares we've had to go through on the offensive side, we deserve random bullshit like this.

Baltimore also helped us out by running into three outs on the basepaths. Vargas caught Nolan Reimold napping off first in the fifth, Rob Johnson caught Aubrey Huff napping off third in the sixth, and Huff was later hung out to dry on a failed hit & run in the ninth. Those three plays improved the Mariners' chances of winning by 27.8%, and when you throw in the double play in the third and the two double plays they tried to hit into in the fourth, the Orioles really didn't seem much for the fundamentals tonight. Maybe the video replay in the first inning convinced the dugout that this was some new futuristic version of baseball in which the things you learn in Little League are no longer important. It probably didn't. That doesn't even make sense.

Anyway, this was neither the easiest nor the most impressive win of the season, but for a team desperate to hang in the race, this was a pretty big win, and taking the series is a good way to kick off this stretch of games against mediocre opponents. The Orioles have a talented lineup, so to hold them to four runs in three games is no small feat, and if Beltre's waking up, then we may finally have an offense to occupy the other halves of the innings. We'll see. With a wild-ass lefty and two sinker-slider righties set to face the M's this weekend, the momentum could stop just as abruptly as it began. But if it doesn't, then hooray!

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Beltre's single was not a double-play ball

If the infield is at normal depth the get one runner at best because the SS is not going to be able to turn two from that deep in the hole.

Hardball Review Because we need another blog about the Mariners.

by etowncoug on Jun 4, 2009 12:01 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm just happy Beltre didn't do his usual "I'm going to slam the living fuck out of the ball

“and hit it right at someone for an out.”

It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains. -- P&P&Z

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jun 4, 2009 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Uh what the hell is happening with the bottom of this post?

Am I the only one seeing forms of “first” in Spanish at the bottom?

by Mariner John on Jun 4, 2009 12:41 AM PDT reply actions  

I see it too

It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains. -- P&P&Z

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jun 4, 2009 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

You take some great pics.

Thanks for sharing.

"I do not buy numbers defensively. At all," Amaro said. "I look at fielding percentage. But that other business? I don’t buy it a lick."

by Big Jared on Jun 4, 2009 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

That is some amazing photography. Nice work Paul.

I got a chance to observe the sunset from my home in Bellingham tonight. It was just as gorgeous as it was in Seattle.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Jun 4, 2009 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great pictures.

That Ichiro + Adam Jones picture made me warm inside.

WELCOME TO THE ZONE.

by HHZ on Jun 4, 2009 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Holy Fuck...

I just realize I get to go to some games this summer, even if we suck or are doing good.

Excited.

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Jun 4, 2009 3:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wonderful, the HR is now my background.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jun 4, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Da-yum....

You is good fotographer, Paul. Wow.

by rtang on Jun 4, 2009 7:25 AM PDT reply actions  

This is kind of random but...

Did anyone notice that the SBN page on Beltre lists his defense as one of his weaknesses?

by Flamefox111 on Jun 4, 2009 7:56 AM PDT reply actions  

They have their own advanced defense metric

called magic 8 ball.

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 4, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Speaking of magic 8 balls...

Jeez how could I forget – at the Tacoma game on Tuesday, Phat Andy totally had one in the ’pen. He shook it and asked “Will I get a girlfriend?”

The Result?

“Concentrate and ask again”

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 4, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Huh.

Beltre, Loafie and Yuni are at 31% of the team’s plate appearances in 2009, but represent just under 59% of the team’s GIDPs.

3 TEAMS have less GIDPs than they do in 2009 (Tampa, Florida and Texas- Arizona has 30).

by eponymous_coward on Jun 4, 2009 11:47 AM PDT reply actions  

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