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Around SBN: Sean Keeley's Week 12 College Football Buffet

Time to Tank?

Bryce Harper is a sophomore catcher from a Las Vegas High School, and the presumptive #1 pick in the 2011 draft. Why? Well, it could be that fact that right now, as a sophomore, he'd be fighting Stephen Strasburg (and he might win) for the title of best amateur prospect in the country. You don't often find 16-year olds who can throw 96 mph, score from second on wild pitches, or hit baseballs off the catwalks/back wall in Tropicana, and you certainly don't see them with bats so fast that you have to slow down the videos to pick up the swing plane (by the way, the swing is Barry Bonds. Barry Bonds but faster). His longest home run? 570+ feet over the street behind a high school field. He was 15. Aluminium bat or no, that's just obscene.

He's so good he doesn't even take BP with baseballs anymore.

"Little red beans," says Ron Harper with a laugh. "The smaller ones, like you see in soup. He just blows them up. It's good for hand-eye coordination. He's shredding them, but every once in a while one would be whizzing by your head." [Boston Globe]

I feel obligated to point out that he's a high school sophomore. If you threw Yuniesky Betancourt a bean he'd probably hyperextend his elbow and then run away screaming because he got too near healthy food. Do you think anyone on this team apart from Ichiro could read numbers off of thrown baseballs? I haven't seen him in game action at all, but I'm not sure there'd be much point since no high school pitcher will throw the ball anywhere near him for fear of being Matt Clemented. But scouts are comparing his talent in high school to Junior's, to Alex Rodriguez's, to Justin Upton's. When each of them was two years older than Harper is now. Matt Wieters is going to get out Wieter'd within 5 years of making his major league debut.

 

Star-divide

In conclusion, Bryce Harper is really goddamn good. But why am I talking about him two years before he gets drafted? Well, a juicy quote came my (and everyone else's) way this morning.

What the Harpers are considering, however, is having Bryce earn a GED credential this summer and enroll in a junior college this fall, which would expose him to more challenging baseball competition as well as make him eligible for next June's draft, in which he would likely be the first pick in the country. [SI]

There's a very good argument to be made that he'd be the #1pick this year too. Ahead of Stephen Strasburg, the most talented pitcher the amateur ranks have seen in the past decade (although Strasburg would likely kick his ass right now). It would be pretty nice if he were draft eligible this year, so we'd have a shot at him or Strasburg, but since his parents didn't have the foresight to conceive Bryce a year earlier (thanks a whole bunch you guys), we're going to be pretending that Dustin Ackley is the answer to all of our hopes and dreams rather than an excellent baseball player.

If we needed a reason to be ok with losses, Bryce Harper is a wonderful one. Didn't everyone enjoy the epic quest for Strasburg last year? Billy Beane might end up looking like a god damn genius for building such a terrible A's club. Trading everyone and replacing them with pumpkins is looking more attractive by the minute. So does becoming a Nationals fan. I'm hating that talentless pile of crap they call a baseball team more and more every day.

Note: I am not seriously suggesting that I want this team to tank for draft position based on speculation that Harper might be draft eligible in 2010.

Another note: Yes, he wants to play in pinstripes. Or for Boston. But Chris Tillman wore an Angels hat in high school so I'm pretty sure I can deal with players rooting for the wrong team as long as they're good enough.

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Yeah really

I’d have been talking about him all year if I knew they were going to try to get him into the draft a year early.

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You'd be down to a 5-inning game then!

Shorten the game!

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Jun 3, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's what we need with that pussy Bedard

5 and out amirite?

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nah...

Jeff Clement & Adam Moore (Sepia)

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 3, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions   4 recs

I can't see this picture, but I'm assuming it's sepia.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

HAHAAHAHA - Sepia-blind are ya?

Yup. It’s sepia…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 3, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

On the other hand, I'm looking forward to Rapin' Raben!

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

(ever)

Doyle’d

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Closer Of The Futureâ„¢

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It kind of matters when you're trying to stop people from stealing on you.

He doesn’t just throw 96 though. His pop time can be sub 2.0 which is above big league average. Again, he’s going to be a HS junior. Absurd!

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jun 3, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Um

“There’s a very good argument to be made that he’d be the #1 pick this year too”

There’s an argument yes, but it’s not a good one.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd take him because of pitcher volatility, but don't just trust me
John Manuel: I’d go Harper 1-1, over Strasburg, and here’s why [reasons].

Granted he said that last fall but I don’t see it being clear cut at all.

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But as a 16 year old he can drive his parents car 96 mph

and grow a handlebar moustache!

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'm getting a Robert Stock vibe here

(to be fair, while Stock was a big-time C prospect at 15-16, he wasn’t hitting any 540’ HRs).

I read about Harper in some power hitting showcase; sounds like he’s still well ahead of 18yo kids.

by marc w on Jun 3, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

3B is my guess

Same set of skills, less damage to knees, big body plays ok there. Probably where Wieters will end up too

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's above big league average defensively at 16.

He’s too valuable catching. Especially as good as he is at the position. Like Mauer, you don’t move a talent like that until you need too.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jun 3, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?

I disagree with Graham on draft stuff all the time. I disagree with most everyone on the draft actually it seems.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay.

I disagree.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does this mean no more "Three guys that agree about everything" posts?

Now that’s just depressing.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bearing in mind we're talking best bat of the last decade vs best pitcher of the last decade

Is it just age/experience? Strasburg has adjusted to college competition already, so that’s in his favour.

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because he's 16 and has never faced anything higher than high school pitching and they won't even throw to him anymore.

And if he falls off catcher, he moves to the outfield, likely to a corner.

Compared to Strasburg who has had two seasons of blowing away the best college bats in the country swinging with aluminum and is almost certainly Major League ready right now.

Harper’s ceiling might be higher because he’s a positional player, but I just cannot fathom how you think the risk on Strasburg because of injury outweights the risk on Harper because of age and development time left.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I value straight up tools in prospects much more highly than you do.

It’s like comparing Upton and Gordon in the 2005 draft.

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The he is 16yo argument rings true for me.

I fear this kid is going to become Todd Marinovich or Matt Bush.

by Sec 108 on Jun 3, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe, but it is more that I am not convinced

a 16yo should be so focused on one thing. I hope he proves me wrong, but kids get tired of things if they do it too much at a young age.

by Sec 108 on Jun 3, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And when that happens and you add a few million dollars

You get Josh Hamilton.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Jun 3, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or you get Ichiro

Speculation about how well grounded the kid is seems odd as scouts are swarming all over him

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point Graham.

I guess the best way to put my concerns is that I actually hope the kid is happy doing this. If he is, the sky appears to be the limit for him.

by Sec 108 on Jun 3, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was kind of glad to read he was eating Fruity Pebbles

chance of him going Marinovich dropped about 50% with that one stray detail…..

by marc w on Jun 3, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really think Marinovich failed not because he was sick of Football

but because of the way his dad controlled every single aspect of his life. He could have done every extra curricular activity in the book and still gotten sidetracked by the magic of weed thanks to that guy.

by marc w on Jun 3, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True, I just was never sure he liked

football in the first place. That being said, his father really fucked him over.

by Sec 108 on Jun 3, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder how much of that was real and how much was a construction of perspective

Even if his father was truly as what, dominating/crazy* as the press made out to be, some of the year round baseball programs they have now days almost blow that story out of the water.

*What would be a good and proper term for the elder Marinovich? From what I remember the press had his program for Todd as being outlandish, didn’t child protective services get involved at one point after details came out?

by Kermit. on Jun 3, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That I do not remember.

I do remember when the SI article came out about his training and food regimen. It was ridiculous. As my Mother has said many times, “You have to let children enjoy being a child or they will never enjoy being an adult.”

by Sec 108 on Jun 3, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd thought that the Marinovich fiasco would make would-be tyrants

think twice about doing what he did.

Sadly, the Williams sisters success may give others hope to prosper through unrelenting, total control of their kids lives.

by marc w on Jun 3, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's really close.

Yes, there have been a ton of 15-16yo players who are deemed the consensus #1 overall pick two years hence, and who for a variety of reasons fall behind their peers by age 20 or so. Michael Main, to pick a recent example. In general, the volatility with a 15yo is just off the charts.
What makes this difficult is that Harper needs NO further development (of his tools). Sure, he hasn’t faced college pitchers or whatever, but it’s not like he hits more for more power than other 16 year olds… he hits for more power than any HS bat, at any age. If he stalls out for two years, he’s still the best power bat in the draft (and at a premium position). I guess I’d want to know if anyone thinks he’ll stay behind the plate. If yes…. wow, it’s damn close. If not, Strasburg all the way.

by marc w on Jun 3, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think his tools will develop any further.

He’s 6’4" 215 at 16. My guess would be that he’s simply matured faster than most and that physically, he might basically be an 18 year old.

If he does get any bigger, I have an even harder time believing that he would stick at catcher.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How much value do you give to his early physical development

allowing him to spend the next year working on skills like pitch recognition? I realize he won’t get any help in high school, but I assume a kid in his position would go out of his way to use find other opportunities (like those ridiculous video pitching machines).

by abender20 on Jun 3, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would be a little higher on him

but still not as high as on Strasburg.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

His numbers against HS pitching mean little to me.

And the two years between 16-18 would help convince me more that he’s not going to turn into a mental fuckwad.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I didn't.

Don’t put words in my mouth.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Take it outside, gentlemen.

Do not sully this house of peace with your bitter feuding.

Unless you make it really entertaining.

I don't know how to stop.

by esoteric on Jun 3, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't it easier just to go off scouting impressions rather than making that assumption?

We’re pretty sure Strasburg is a level-headed dude but if I hadn’t read any reports on him I’d assume he’s an ego-maniacal asshole.

Besides, then you’re debiting him for his age and not giving him the benefit of more development time (and it’s not just physical development, as you know) and a longer career.

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's fair, but I'm skeptical of this sort of thing ever since

I was assured that Travis Snider would be an immobile sack of fat by the time he was 20.

by marc w on Jun 3, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm solely talking about his ability to stick at catcher in the case of size

My first guess would be that one of two things happens:

1. He’s done (mostly) developing physically. Which means he’s probably not going to develop his tools like power much more.

2. He’s not done developing physically and thus might get more power, etc as he fills out further, but at that point I would be highly doubtful that could stay behind the plate. Just far too much height and weight to be in a crouch all the time and stay healthy.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And it dims the promise of his youth

If he’s high-risk/high-reward… you’d like to see more tool development coming down the pipeline… like Triunfel.

by johnbai on Jun 3, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure.

70(80) is better than 70(70) so in that case, bad that he might be further along

but developing 80 power might mean have to move from C to LF so in that case, good that he might be further along

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Remember that the power tool is really a combination of strength and batting eye

He could improve that even without putting on any more mass.

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can see that.

To me, it’s very good, but part of that is because I seriously can’t see him less than like 75 right now (five hundred and fucking seventy?)

He developed sooner, so there you go. Again, I think the comparison to Travis Snider may be apt (though Snider never really had a baseball body at all, but those who thought that he would balloon outwards were wrong; he just developed sooner than his peers).

by marc w on Jun 3, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So you're saying we need to fail to sign Ackley

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 9:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

They get nothing fot not signing Strasburg

after flailing on Crow. Or are you implying that we’ll get a second crack at him?

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, they get nothing for not signing Crow's replacement

they’d get the second pick for not signing Strasburg

by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Baseball is byzantine

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A large number of simple rules make for a complicated system

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

*makes

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We're not outfailing the Natinals again

nor the As. Let’s face it, Zduriencik screwed the pooch with the defensive improvements to the team. We’re not drafting higher than 10th next year, I think.

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But we can't give up yet!!

Just listen to Baker, the voice of reason, crying in the wilderness!!!

by msb on Jun 3, 2009 10:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't necessarily disagree with the overall point

but the route he takes to get there is pretty hilarious.

by acblue on Jun 3, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's like Balentien last year.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 3, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aaargh

“The Mariners have the tough parts down: pitching and defense.”

This is just simply not true. The ONE team stat that correlates best with team winning percentage? Team OBP.

That being said, yes, Zdurienck is not blowing up the team a third of the way into the season. I won’t expect anything to happen until late June at the earliest.

by eponymous_coward on Jun 3, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is also annoying

“This team already has two or three other potential closers in the bullpen and at least two in the minors who’ll probably be up by next year.”

Fun fact: David Aardsma, drafted about where Josh Fields was, also a closer in the SEC, went through FOUR ORGANIZATIONS (Giants, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox), before he became a closer. Fields has already been shut down for injury and his BB/9 right now makes Brandon Morrow look like Greg Maddox.

Projecting guys like Fields to immediate MLB success because they have fastballs and they got drafted high is just not justified given the history involved. For every Huston Street you have a David Aardsma or Matt Thornton who takes a loooooong time to get to the point where their command is MLB-ready.

by eponymous_coward on Jun 3, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's count the strawmen...

1) Fans who would rather cheer on an 80 win/$50M team than a 95 win/$100M team
2) Fans who would rather be in last place with Adam Jones than contend with Franklin Guttierez
3) Fans who think that Beltre’s true talent is a 550 OPS (thank God Baker is around to correct them)
4) Fans who think we should “play the kids” just to get them experience (as opposed to playing them because they will likely improve the offense)
5) Fans who only want to trade Bedard so we can somehow “win” the Adam Jones trade

He wants us to listen to him and not just pluck a few lines out and rip him to shreds, but jeez guy, play with your imaginary friends much?

Hope!

by mkd on Jun 3, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

“There is a certain breed of Mariners fan, I’m convinced, that cares more about the process of winning than whether or not the team actually wins something.”

No, we care about process because we know that good results in the long-term scheme of things COME from good process. Nobody on LL was going to turn down a gift playoff series or three in August 2007, even though a lot of us may have thought Bavasi wasn’t a very good GM. Baseball has SUCH an element of luck introduced into it that quite often over the short term it overwhelms process- even on the full season scale.

Our argument is that superior process leads to superior result- or, as Branch Rickey said, “luck is the residue of design”. This doesn’t mean there’s only one way to get a superior process- look at Minnesota, for example. Not a Moneyball organization at all, still gets good results because they get some basic things right (invest in kids, not high-priced FAs, concentrate on defense, have a stable organizational philosophy that can teach kids things).

by eponymous_coward on Jun 3, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah,

I didn’t list that line because it’s the one time Baker actually argues with anything resembling a real group of fans. But even here he gets it all jumbled up.

Geoff: Of course I would rather have a luck-driven World Series victory than a sound approach to organization building, but it’s a false choice. What are the odds pure luck is going to take us all the way? A million to one? What are the odds sound organization building will take us all the way? A thousand to one? A hundred to one? I want process BECAUSE I want to win. It’s that simple. I don’t get why people don’t get that.

Hope!

by mkd on Jun 3, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would imagine that someone who says outright they want to play for the Yankees or Boston

would simply refuse to be signed until signed by one of those clubs.

He can afford to wait out 4 years (or more if he doesn’t move up now). After the first couple non NYY/BOS teams aren’t able to sign him (and get marginally screwed the next year), everyone lets him go until he drops to the teams he wants.

It seems like a plausible scenario. I mean teams don’t hate each other enough to actually stall their picks till the next year just for spite, would they?

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I want to play for NY or BOS

but I’d settle for the Marlins. Anything but the NL west.

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not the Dodgers?

Stadium sucks but it is a big city, a team capable of winning consistently for years, a team with a lot of positive history etc etc.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 3, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He could live wherever he wants with the kind of money he'll get

but why would you hypothetically not want to play for the Dodgers?

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 3, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

so live in San Diego and play for the Dodgers. I’m asking why if you were making a list of teams you wouldn’t play for you would include the Dodgers. It’s not like they are really cheap when it comes to top level talent, and they’ve done a pretty good job at developing young talent into quality ML players. At worst you probably get traded to some other organization for their over valued veteran.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 3, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, as a team they are good.

I was just being difficult.

by Fin on Jun 3, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because Dodgers fans are homos

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Marlins is a good starting point.

I mean, that is where Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, and Dontrelle Willis got their start. I mean, not all turned out to be success stories, but Florida is generally very good at growing a good crop of player.

by Fin on Jun 3, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ummm...

except most of them actually got their starts in OTHER organizations… all of them except Cabrera, i think.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Jun 3, 2009 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If there's grass on the field

play ball

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some of them have astroturf.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I have no idea where I'm going with this.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh Jeezus it looked like real grass

I had no idea, your honor.

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 3, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My first HS had the JV team playing on Red Clay

with rocks all over. The Freshman team played on a dirt field infield at a local park.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 3, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fairies have wings.

I would assume they fly most everywhere.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahem.

Well, it’s official — Softy just mentioned Harper (due to the upcoming SI article)

by msb on Jun 3, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So if he's in the next draft the Nationals get them as well?

Does that mean when the Nationals make the playoffs in 2015 the current GM, fired two year prior, will be praised endlessly by Chip Caray?

by Poochie on Jun 3, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm....

53 games in.

2008: 1.0 up in Draft Standings
2009: 9.5 down in Draft Standings

No sir, we’re not gonna make it. Yay, Nationals!

by ThundaPC on Jun 3, 2009 10:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He's gonna get drilled his first at bat in the majors
Before he hits, Harper lays his bat down in the batter’s box, takes two steps toward the pitcher, bends over, scoops up dirt in his bare hands (batting gloves? Hah!), rubs it between his palms and then returns to grab his bat and take his place in the box.

by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So he's Mormon.
attends religious education classes nearly every morning before school.

I wonder if the 2-year mission thing is going to be an issue.

by Wilder. on Jun 3, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So, Robert Stock, v2.0?

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Jun 3, 2009 11:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Robert Stock is now a pitcher.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Jun 3, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I should have known.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Jun 3, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

When they did the homerun competition at Tropicana, none of them hit a HR with a wood bat

He did, however, hit the wall I believe. That was the farthest anyone hit it.

by cougfan on Jun 3, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had read that somewhere as well.

To make up for the increasing sickness of the bats that were coming out.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They did disprove that putting cork in a bat doesnt work

As well as putting rubber. But is that really how a bat is ‘corked’? That doesn’t make sense to me to want less mass in the barrel of the bat. And when the Mythbusters did it, they were fairly hush-hush about the technique of ‘corking’ a bat.

Anyone here have any real life experience doctoring bats?

by d0nkey on Jun 3, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You want the bat lighter so you can swing it faster.

Otherwise, you look like Jeff Clement at the plate.

Jose Lopez roxxorz my boxxorz.
51!

by joof on Jun 3, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's true but the density of the lighter bat would be the same as the corked bat (assuming they weighed the same)

So it doesn’t seem like it would help you hit the ball farther or swing faster, it would just have more surface area. Which I guess would help you make better contact but that’s the only benefit I can see from it.

by OlSalty on Jun 4, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is that a hedgehog on his chin?

The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.450 wOBA, 21 years old.

by Goose on Jun 3, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

God it's painful to read the comments on that youtube video.

People hating on a 16 year old who can hit a baseball 570 feet because he uses an aluminum bat is pretty pathetic.

by Zwakamatsu on Jun 3, 2009 11:45 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It makes me want to die.

Also, that video is fucking insane. Such a pretty swing and unbelievable power. Over 105 mph on the bat speed multiple times. I’m sure the haters on there are the 18 year old high school kids who think they’re the shit at baseball only to see a 16 year old hit a ball further than they could ever imagine hitting one.

by Zwakamatsu on Jun 3, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is one of the best swings I've seen since Griffey in his prime

I am not, however, an expert on such things – but I knows purty when I sees it.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on Jun 3, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

113mph at one point!

Yikes!

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 3, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Watching the "interview" afterwords its amazing to think he's only 16.

I swear kids do grow bigger and faster down south where it’s warmer. I had the chance to play in a regional tournament for my 17-18 year old rec league (I think it’s palamino?) and the kids down there were all like fucking 6 foot 2 and looked like they were about 25 years old.

by Zwakamatsu on Jun 3, 2009 11:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Metal Bat + wind + elevation makes a huge difference.

e.g. a 16mph headwind vs. 16 mph wind blowing out:

From Hittracker’s selected archive of great home runs it looks like a human can hit a ball over 500 feet unaided by wind or elevation – Mantle’s, Williams’, and Jackson’s, for example.

by Decatur on Jun 3, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wasn't McGwire's shot off Randy in the Kingdome over 500ft?

That was one of the most amazing things I have ever seen in my life.

by Sec 108 on Jun 3, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was sitting in the upper deck at the Kingdom along the third base line, about even with third base, when he hit that.

Didn’t really register how far he hit it until I saw the estimate – then the crowd collectively fainted.

http://www.slate.com/id/2095/

This article, although it’s over a decade old, argues that it wasn’t hit that far – it says the human limit at sea level with no wind is about 470 – that’s probably not true, as Mantle hit one 500 feet according to hit tracker without aid of the wind, but still McGwire’s probably wasn’t hit that far.

by Decatur on Jun 3, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Take into account it came of a Randy Johnson fastball.

That ball almost cleared the bleachers in the 2nd deck. No way that isn’t 500 plus feet.

by Sec 108 on Jun 3, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can believe for a few reasons.

The 500 foot home run with a metal bat he hit at the trop, as Graham alluded to. Metal bats add about 10% of the distance of their wooden counterparts according to an article by Greg Rybarcyzk – so 500/1.1 = 454.5 feet with a wooden bat at sea level with no wind (at the Trop). Las Vegas is 2,000 feet high, and has hot, deserty conditions that make the ball travel farther than usual – conditions which could pretty easily add 70 extra feet or so to the 500 foot bomb he hit at the Trop. It’s probably equivalent to about a 500 foot homerun with a wooden back in Vegas and maybe a 460 or so foot bomb at sea level, I would think. I don’t know the exact calculations but it seems a disproportionate number of the biggest bombs these days are hit at the Diamondbacks’ stadium these days – see hittracker for that – very similar conditions to Vegas.

by Decatur on Jun 3, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

And dryness

don’t forget it’s dry in Las Vegas

by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

But dry baseballs are bouncier

by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please explain

This does not make intuitive sense.
I would think that more h2o molecules in the air would make it “soupier” and therefore offer more resistance to things flying through it.

by johnbai on Jun 3, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

`
This occurs because the molecular mass of water (18) is less than the molecular mass of air (around 29). For any gas, at a given temperature and pressure, the number of molecules present is constant for a particular volume. So when water molecules (vapor) are introduced to the air, the number of air molecules must reduce by the same number in a given volume, without the pressure or temperature increasing. Hence the mass per unit volume of the gas (its density) decreases.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fascinating...

so has it been demonstrated that humid air actually offers less resistance to a batted ball than dry air?

by johnbai on Jun 3, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And assuming there are no other variables

like the quality of running into a typical air molecule vs. a typical water vapor molecule. Could collisions with water vapor be different because the molecules “stick” to the ball more than air molecules that simply bounce off? Probably not at all, but assuming that less density is “all you need to know” seems like poor science.

by johnbai on Jun 3, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What?

John, this makes no sense.

by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Neither does impedence

when two cylinders collide end to end, you’d think that the moving cylinder would impart all its energy into the stationary one… like pool balls colliding, but it mysteriously doesn’t… because the “quality” of that collision is different. The impedence factor gets in the way of the transfer of force.

I’m just saying that rather than accept that humid air is less dense and therefore gives 1% better travel distance to fly balls… why not test empirically to verify the theory. Because… you know… sometimes science is more complicated than we initially figure it.

by johnbai on Jun 3, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I had that same thought myself

And don’t wish to argue science with people who actually study this stuff (as opposed to myself… who never took a science class beyond high school… but find it all fascinating.)

So gases don’t have any frictional qualities? Honey vapor doesn’t retain a sticky quality that creates more drag for any passing objects? You’re making reality way more boring than it is in my mind.

by johnbai on Jun 4, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is there such thing as honey vapour? I imagine it combusts

The gaseous equivalent of friction (unless they somehow condense into liquid/solid on an object, which won’t be the case here) is air resistance, which essentially involves the object shoving the gas molecules out of the way using kinetic energy transfer. Since water gas molecules are lighter than nitrogen gas molecules, they take less of the stored kinetic energy to move, and therefore more remains in the ball.

by Graham on Jun 4, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The sticky qualities that you attribute to stuff like honey

is the result of the proximity of the molecules due to their increased density in the liquid state, resulting in hydrogen bonding. You just don’t get the same magnitude of the interaction in the gas phase.

Also, honey isn’t elemental. Honey is glucose, fructose and water with some other trace remnants of stuff. If you heated it, the water would just evaporate out and the sugars etc would be left behind / burn.

by abender20 on Jun 4, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't seen bat speed like that since I can remember...

Pretty amazing, really…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 3, 2009 12:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Why am I just now hearing about this kid?

Shit. I need him for my softball team

by d0nkey on Jun 3, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

"I am not seriously suggesting that I want this team to tank for draft position based on speculation that Harper might be draft eligible in 2010."

Besides, when the 2008 M’s had a chance to get make a statement of “we want Strasburg” in 2008, we all know how that went. Clearly this team is very un-clutch when it comes to tanking for draft position.

by eponymous_coward on Jun 3, 2009 12:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, to be serious instead of sarcastic here

Pythag projected results suggest the first draft pick is going to the worst team, like it should be. Worst Pythag teams by division, per B-R:

BAL: 73-88
KCR: 72-90
SDP: 68-94
SEA:: 67-95
PIT: 67-95
WSN: 62-99

by eponymous_coward on Jun 3, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Being 5 games back in June is no time to give up on a season!

A few key losses here and there and we could be right back in this thing.

/bizzaroBaker

by PDXTai on Jun 3, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This kid is absolutely amazing.

Rich Lederer introduced him to me about a 6 months ago and I’ve been smitten ever since. Absolutely amazing power. Not only that, but as Graham said 96 off the bump, a sub 2.0 pop time!! He’s essentially big league ready defensively now. All he needs to learn is how to recognize elite breaking stuff. And sometimes that can be an issue, but with his tools and bat speed, it shouldn’t be much of one. He’s on par with Upton (the Justin version), Arod and Griffey in terms of HS prospects.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jun 3, 2009 2:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

BJ would have been better if he wasn't so lazy.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe we should run out an All-Suck Team:

I propose: trade Bedard, Beltre, Branyan, Washburn, Aardsma, and Endy for a beautiful haul, then run out (I’m going for pseudo-realistic here):

RF Ichiro
CF Gutz
DH Junior
LF Wlad
3B Lopez
1B Shelton
SS Yuni
C Johnson
2B Cedeno

Or Carp, Saunders, maybe even Redman are options too.
(Maybe Jeffie can leaven the suck at 1B/DH/C – Churchill reported in his live free chat that Clement’s knee is close to 100% and that he’ll begin catching occasionally later this month).

Starting Rotation: Felix, RRS, Olsen, Vargas, SIlva/Jaku

Note: this is all silly, of course.

by Decatur on Jun 4, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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