Robert bets the mods the Mariners will be average - update
by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 12:18 AM PDT
198 comments
September of last year, our intrepid hero made the following bet - if the Mariners are within five games of .500 at the conclusion of play, August 31, 2009, he becomes a mod for the month of September. If the Mariners fall outside this nine-game window, each mod gets to cockpunch him at a time and location of their choosing.
Just today, new user Poochie asked for an update on the status of the bet.
I've created a simple WE chart for the bet, based on a simple binomial distribution, and assuming the Mariner's current Pythagorean Expectation to be their odds of winning the next game. After that, it was a simple matter (well with a lot of numbers) to determine the approximate odds of the Mariners winning between 64 and 69 games before September 1
robert2 (via seattlebruin)
After tonight's game against the Orioles, the M's have a Pythagorean expectation of .442 from here on out, and they've won 25 games already. Thus, I simply needed to find the probability of them winning between 38 and 43 of the next 80 games. As you can see, the odds aren't bad - about 40%.
I repeated this process retroactively for the beginning of the season - as you can see, the team was much too good to hover around .500 at the start of the year. Ironically, the high point of the graph came on Silva's last start - it's been all downhill from there.
EDIT: Updated through tonight's 3-2 victory over Baltimore - Robert checking in at a robust 26.4% chance to avoid three junkpunches
16 recs |
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I can't believe this took me three hours
by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 12:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is just the perfect example of a win/win situation!
Nice piece of work
by Kermit. on Jun 3, 2009 12:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Boy I've assimilated the archives quickly huh
Do I fit in yet?
by Poochie on Jun 3, 2009 1:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
1400 Comments in 2 weeks
Pace yourself
by cougfan on Jun 3, 2009 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The comment about counting still applies
by cougfan on Jun 3, 2009 1:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I most certainly do not fit in yet
Still working on it
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo
by gregrabble on Jun 4, 2009 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You really think that when I die that there will be enough recoverable remains to sufficiently cock punch?
by Robert on Jun 3, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And quitters never win.
I don’t know how cockpunches figure into this, though.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 3, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well this is entertaining
and says a lot about its creator
by NOLAmarinergirl on Jun 3, 2009 8:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I cannot believe I didn't do it, frankly.
by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's almost as good as the time I created the Jeffclown
by Poochie on Jun 3, 2009 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But aren't you a new user?
I don't know how to stop.
by esoteric on Jun 3, 2009 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's possible people are joking when they say this.
by Mariner John on Jun 3, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amazing how you get these wrong so often.
Of course I’m kidding. As JI well knows, given the goofy trolling incident from last week.
I don't know how to stop.
by esoteric on Jun 3, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This, incidentally is why I can't use deadpan around here.
Too much flat-footed sincerity and everyone starts assuming that you’re never cracking wise at all.
I don't know how to stop.
by esoteric on Jun 3, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
JI used to be butthol, there's no way he's poochie.
Besides lets just pretend you’re right, then how do you fit fogel into the picture. Sheesh
by Kermit. on Jun 3, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fogel and Robert are the same person.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you put the two of them together weightwise they'd make a normal person.
by acblue on Jun 3, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My stupid friends in Seattle have fattened me up to normal person size.
by Robert on Jun 3, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes clearly it is your friends and not the beer.
by acblue on Jun 3, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One might say, beyond normal person size.
by Matthew on Jun 3, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Enough to give him some power at the plate?
by ningwers on Jun 3, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who are the heros that voted for me and will receive a Fanpost of their choosing as a gift for their loyalty?
by Robert on Jun 3, 2009 8:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I assumed there are some people who just don't give a shit and come here for baseball commentary and not junior high antics
by Poochie on Jun 3, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would argue that we are more like High School with the clicques and all
by Robert on Jun 3, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
I voted for you Robert
But it was a protest vote. I disagree with the poster’s conclusion that you only have a 40% chance of winning. I think the M’s have a 60+% chance of finishing within 5 games of .500.
by johnbai on Jun 3, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted with Robert as a prestige vote.
It’s always best to be associated with the winner.
by Kermit. on Jun 3, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A vote for everyone is a vote for you
since you are, by definition, including in “everyone”
by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted for you
Those of the glorious first name must stick together
by rlintott on Jun 3, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did.
As pointed out, “everyone” includes “Robert”.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 3, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm hoping that an alternative solution can be reached.
If the M’s are outside of the 10 game win zone by one or two games, we get cockpunches and a Robmod
by abender20 on Jun 3, 2009 8:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
+/- 5 games in either direction -> 10 win spread.
Would you trade three unexpected punches to the genitals for a month of modding?
by abender20 on Jun 3, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Five games above or five games below .500 = 10 games
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 3, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I always forget that is an option
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 3, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone who voted for Robert clearly doesn't understand how these things work
by Jeff on Jun 3, 2009 9:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I've known people that are so lonely
They would welcome a cockpunch, as it represents a human being actually making contact with their genitalia. How can we be sure Robert isn’t one of these people?
by Toxicadam on Jun 3, 2009 10:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Because he cried when I kicked him in the balls
by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those were because my Willie Coyote maneuver didn't work.
by Robert on Jun 3, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wile E.
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 3, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
H/T - Last Fan of Jose Lopez (RIP) for the rare Big Gay Eagle and Cat-Jeff photos
by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 11:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He gave his life so we could enjoy ours.
by Robert on Jun 3, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where did LFOJL go, anyway?
Sometimes it almost seems like he’s still here, haunting us in another guise.
I don't know how to stop.
by esoteric on Jun 3, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's Fogel. Why does no one get this
by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Excellently played.
I don't know how to stop.
by esoteric on Jun 3, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's almost like you were fishing for this exact response
by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was pretty transparent.
I don't know how to stop.
by esoteric on Jun 3, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you're lying because how could Robert pull off being three people.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It only seems that way because SB is such a big JL fan.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on Jun 3, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't think I haven't noticed you're never in the same thread as Vatinius
by Kermit. on Jun 3, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because posting under two accounts in the same thread is impossible to do.
by Fin on Jun 3, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, it's possible if you use two separate web browsers.
Not that I know anything about that…..!
by Taylor H on Jun 3, 2009 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In hindsight, my numbers are wrong - Robert in fact needs the Mariners to accomplish one of the six following records in order to win
64-69
65-68
66-67
67-66
68-65
69-64
With 25 wins, the Mariners must thus win between 39 and 44 games remaining – this leave Robert just a .5% chance of actual success, unfortunately.
by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 1:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
80 games left, and the M's need to post a W% between .4875 - .55
by Jeff on Jun 3, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on a very sloppy way of doing this
I have Robert’s current odds at 35-40%.
by Jeff on Jun 3, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no, wait, my correction is right
my original calculation is based on the M’s winning between 62 and 71 of their original 133 games (clearly wrong, I just took [133/2] +/- 5), looks like I just summed the wrong row to get the .5% figure. according to my spreadsheet, it’s actually like 22%, which makes sense given that I had 62-71 wins at .389.
by seattlebruin on Jun 3, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Each mod gets to cockpunch him at a time and location of their choosing."
I am going to wait until the fateful day that Robert gets married.
by Graham on Jun 3, 2009 2:53 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Here's how that should go
ingratiate yourself into Robert’s life so that whenever that day falls, you are the obvious choice for best man. Do the bachelor party, be the go-to guy during the ceremony, be impeccably behaved throughout. Then, when you get up to give your speech, say nothing but raise your glass; when everyone else does the same, set yours down and BAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMMMM right in the swingers.
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 3, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
This doesn't seem that unlikely.
Except perhaps the Robert married part.
by NOLAmarinergirl on Jun 3, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In this scenario would you be bitching out of the deal or giving Graham a bonus punch?
by ningwers on Jun 3, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically if I never get married he can't go through with this plan.
by Robert on Jun 3, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I imagine he'd follow through on your death bed if need be.
by ningwers on Jun 3, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's also the chance of some sort of industrial accident rendering you nutless
in which case a punch would be superfluous.
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 3, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This reminds me of my freshman year of college when my firend was trying to kick me
under the dining table. He “accidentally” nailed me square in my nuts. I informed him I would get him back but I would do it at a later date to make him fear the moment.
Ten years later as I was dropping him off at home after his bachelor party I nailed him in the nuts and told him to explain that to his fiancee.
by Sec 108 on Jun 3, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
Well this tops any of my practical joke stories by a country mile
I do appreciate you not dropping this story right off the bat however.
by Kermit. on Jun 3, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a long story but it may be my very favorite one.
I was at a party with my friend that had lost this bet with me. At the start of the night he prepared himself for it than at the last second moved away so I could only get a grazing shot in on him and proceeded to go around the party mocking how terrible my aim was with the help of another friend.
Later on that night we are all completely hammered when I sneak up on him from down low and got a perfect shot in on him, sending him to the ground for at least 5 minutes. I eventually go help him up and ask him why he was ok with our other friend nut punching him so hard. He’s confused and I explain to him that the only reason why he thought I had done it was because he was so drunk.
I then run over to the other friend and very angrily accuse him of being a jackass for the unprompted punch. He says that he is so far gone that he doesn’t remember doing it but in addition to profusely apologizing, he agrees that its only fair that he stands in and gets one in retaliation which goes through splendidly. I will never be able to top it.
by Robert on Jun 3, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
I am so glad I don't have nuts.
I would live in fear of seeing you outside my window with the BK mask on, ready to deliver some sort of testicle pain.
by royalcurve on Jun 3, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get how this chart never shows above 50% when we've gone from probably being above .500 to probably being below
by Graham on Jun 4, 2009 7:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it figures in the true talent of the team going forward
by Poochie on Jun 4, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That wouldn't explain it at all.
There had to have been some point in which we were expected to finish around .500
by Graham on Jun 4, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially since our run differential had to have crossed over from positive to negative at some point.
Given the fairly wide range of potential Robert-favorable outcomes, a binomial distribution based off of an even run differential should have given him a fairly good chance somewhere around when the M’s cooled down.
by abender20 on Jun 4, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Robert picked a very specific 5-game stretch
out of 134 possible outcomes from the start of the year, only 6 are winners for Robert, and even though they’re the most likely 6, about 45% max sounds right to me
by seattlebruin on Jun 4, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
11 different combinations should be potential winners for Robert.
by abender20 on Jun 4, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
6
I thought it was 11 at first too, by doing [133/2] +/- 5 but look in the above subthread
The only winning combinations are
64-69
65-68
66-67
67-66
68-65
69-64
63-70, 70-63 would each be seven games below/above .500, and thus losing combinations for Robert
by seattlebruin on Jun 4, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shit, you're right. I neglected that fact that the absence of a win also necessitates a loss. Whoops.
Robert is fucked.
by abender20 on Jun 4, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So I'm going to laugh when we're 69-63 on August 31st
and down 7-4 in the ninth when someone hits a walk-off grand slam to lose the bet for Robert
by seattlebruin on Jun 4, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on how you define "within five games of .500"
A team that finishes 76-86 is ten games under .500, but within five games of a team that finishes 81-81.
by justcougit on Jun 4, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The bet is not in relation to any other team, thus there are only 6 combinations which are within 5 games of .500
since there’s no way the team can be .500 with an odd number of games (this of course assumes we play all the games on the schedule)
by seattlebruin on Jun 4, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The other thing that hurt his chances a lot was that our run differential
got to ~even by getting blown out a lot, so even though our run differential got to around 1:1 quickly, it also came with a lot of losses, decreasing the chances, meaning the M’s would need to play over .500 ball with a negative run differential
by seattlebruin on Jun 4, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does this mean someone is getting cockpunched?
If so, can it be .gif’d?
by d0nkey on Jun 5, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I just looked at this for the first time.
This dude is so getting cockpunched.
by Timdor69 on Jun 6, 2009 2:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I have already have a basic idea planned out for rec/fx so if I win everybody will too!
by Robert on Jun 8, 2009 4:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If you implement recf/x, I will rec every comment you make for one week
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick question will Robert have complete and total Mod powers or will it be limited?
You got slurved!
Free Tommy Hanson! [FREED]! Free Jeff Clement! Free Michael Saunders!
by Slurvey on Jun 8, 2009 5:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure he would post some interesting front page content
by Taylor H on Jun 8, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
.
by seattlebruin on Jun 8, 2009 5:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I beg to differ.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Jun 11, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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