Filling in at Third Base
by Matthew on Jun 27, 2009 7:19 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintOption One:
1B Mike Carp
2B Jose Lopez/Chris Woodward
SS Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno
3B Russell Branyan
Option Two:
1B Russell Branyan
2B Chris Woodward/Ronny Cedeno
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Jose Lopez/Mike Morse
Option one is the more unconventional answer and certainly punts defense a bit, but let us have a look at the numbers.
DEFENSE
Option One: ?/-5/-10/-10. Total: -25
Option Two: -5/0/-10/-5. Total: -20
Based on UZR, with some question marks as to how Mike Carp and/or Jose Lopez would field given sample sizes, but some legitimately horrendous prospects of seeing Mike Morse on the field. All in all, it looks like it could be about a five run difference or so. And I feel like I am being conservative toward the more traditional option two here. Worth noting is that by moving Branyan over and inserting Carp at the corners, you leave Woodward and Cedeno both open to sub in at the middle infield positions. In the currently proposed Option Two, you are losing half of that flexibility.
The key here is how bad you think Branyan would be at third base. Branyan's actually been mostly a third baseman lately, logging almost 2.5x as many innings there than at first and logging significant time there as recently as last season. His career UZR/150 at 3B is -6.9. I've projected that all the way down to -10 to further worsen the case against.
OFFENSE
Mike Carp's projected wOBA: .323
Chris Woodward's projected wOBA: .287
Difference between two, over a full season: 20 runs
This operates under the assumption that the normal starter's offense does not suffer from moving positions. All numbers come from updated ZiPS projections.
Do it, Wak. I know you love defense. We love it too. But what's more important than defense is offense plus defense and there's just no way to justify starting three terrible middle infielders while you let Mike Carp and Jeff Clement go to waste somewhere.
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If we're concerned that moving Branyan to third will affect his hitting
How realistic of an option would Shelton be instead? Because fuck Mike Morse.
Right I'm just saying that if it's something the people making the decisions are concerned about
Would Shelton be decent enough at third?
I would rather platoon Shelton at first with Carp.
Shelton’s defense looks kind of okay at first.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 27, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Option 1 please.
Not only that, but if Carp were to break out he might steal playing time from a certain washed up legend once Beltre returns.
Option 3 - Trade Washburn to LAD for Blake Dewitt
Zips projects him as .317 for the rest of the year, while he was +5.2 in UZR last year. So he’s like the best of both worlds. Plus he’s left handed, is under team control for 5 more years, and is playing a lot of second base lately as well
Everything after "UZR last year" is precisely why it would never happen
by seattlesundevil on Jun 27, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
umm.....
Ned Coletti doesn’t care about minor leaguers
Carlos Santana was thrown in so the Dodgers wouldn’t have to pay Casey Blake’s remaining 4 million in salary. This was after he started being proclaimed as one of the 5 best minor league catchers.
There's a key line in there
Now, I am not saying the team can or even should trade for one of these
Also, there’s a difference between talking about nobody outfielders and trading Jarrod Washburn for Blake DeWitt.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't see how the difference is that big other than salary
Jarrod Washburn is a pitcher who’s performance, it has been said many times both here and at USS, could be replicated by one of Jason Vargas, Ryan Rowland-Smith, or Garret Olson. Blake Dewitt isn’t a star, he’s not an A Prospect, he’s a fringe regular, more than likely topping out around Jose Lopez. What’s more, I recognize the vagaries of making trades and that it probably wouldn’t be as simple as a one for one / no money trade. Perhaps I should have simply said, “Blake Dewitt is a player who could fulfill our need at 3rd base might be available at a moderate cost, though I’m not saying he’s the only option available via trade.” My apologies for not simply agreeing with the theoretical possibility that Matthew proposed.
by Malcontent1 on Jun 27, 2009 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I understand where you're coming from
it’s just a dangerous issue is all, and we try to keep a close watch over it. Occasional suggestions and ideas are perfectly fine. It’s when they snowball that it becomes a real pain.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I understand other's impatience, but this site would be lost without your diplomacy, Jeff.
Kudos, because I know how fucking hard it can be.
Given that we've lost two of the key contributors to our defense, I think
I’m at the point where I’d start trotting out an offense that included Branyan at 3B, Carp at 1B, Sweeney at DH, and Griffey in LF. At least a couple times a week.
If Saunders keeps playing well, maybe we'll see him around August?
Then you can keep Griffey away from the field. It’s at least an interesting thought.
by AtomicGarden on Jun 27, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Griffey is awful in the field and he's unable to play for like three games every time he starts in the OF.
He should never be anywhere near LF.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Couple times a week Im saying. We have no chance in my opinon unless we start
playing more offense, even if it jeapordizes the run prevention. The guys filling in for Beltre and Endy are likely going to produce below average run prevention at the positions anyway. It’s not like we have another Endy or Beltre like glove waiting to fill in.
I’d push the envelope and take my chances a couple days a week going with an all bat offense including the four guys I mentioned above
I guess I would want to know how big of a difference there is between Wlad and
Griffey in left, and if the inclusion of Sweeney into the lineup instead of Wlad would make up for the difference.
Mike Sweeney isn't a good hitter anymore
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Hard to say for sure since we don't know Wlad's true talent at the plate or in the field
But based on the ZiPS projections, Sweeney is only 4-5 runs better than Wlad at the plate for a full season, and that’s not enough to erase the defensive dropoff. Plus, let’s face it, even if you wanted Griffey to play the field, his body won’t let him do it anymore.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm really hoping Saunders arrives soon and makes everybody happy
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions
He's slumped a little bit the last few weeks, but I think it's more
about getting his shoulder back in shape. At least that’s what they keep saying. Although not sure what the difference is between strengthening the shoulder in Tacoma vs Seattle is
It boggles my mind that we've stayed in the race this long and people still don't understand the value of defense
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Which is a direct result of Rob Johnson's greatness.
We’re still in this because of Rob Johnson!
Awaiting the day I catch a Russell Branyan foul ball. I will make love to it.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
I get the value of defense. But aren't the replacements we're going to be dealing with
below average defenders in addition to below average hitters? It seems now that we just have a bunch of below average defenders, with varying levels of below average hitters.
I don’t know, Im probably overvaluing Sweeney and underestimating how bad Griffey is in the field, given that to the visual eye, he doesn’t seem to have screwed us yet.
Bottomline, we’re pretty fucked. But I would like to at least see the Branyan move to third with maybe a Shelton/Carp 1B platoon.
However, I think Russell is so locked in right now, they won’t want to move him off his position.
No matter what happens, you always have to look at the picture in terms of run value on offense and defense
just because we’ve lost two of our best gloves doesn’t mean we can suddenly punt the whole thing. If Pujols goes on the DL the Cardinals won’t play an all-defense lineup since their offense got hurt.
Griffey in the outfield is still a really bad idea. He sucks and he’s fragile. Nothing about our OF/DH alignment should change with the Beltre news, at least until Saunders is ready.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2009 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Obviously, you haven't been paying attention.
Why, all he did was hit and they insisted on playing Brad Wilkerson.
Who takes Beltre's spot on the 25 man anyway?
I see Morse, Shelton, Clement, RRS, maybe Prentice Redman or Jerry Owens?
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 27, 2009 10:41 PM PDT reply actions
If the FO makes that happen, what's that going to say to Loafie how they feel about him at 2nd?
He’s the best option at 3rd, they can cover 2nd don’t worry about it? Or Loafie doesn’t have the range for 2nd anymore? Maybe I’m reading into that too much.
I thought it would be pretty obvious that Branyan should be the fill in
It’s not like it’s been three years since he played it regularly, he was a regular thirdbaseman last year.
Two days of a Cedeno/Woodward middle infield should change everyone's mind
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Not to mention Lopez has shown himself to be very poor at third.
Gosh well I hope we can win on a ration of six baserunners a game.
If they're that worried about disrupting Branyan's hitting by moving him to third
(Which I don’t really understand) why not try Shelton? I doubt his defense will be good but most of our other options aren’t going to be great defense-wise, and Shelton is the only one who can hit.
Maybe they are worried about Branyan's back? Is 3B more physically demanding?
I would suspect it is
I'll concede that Branyan has some issues that could be keeping him from 3B
but I feel like we need to find out, or at least get a straight explanation from the guys in charge if that isn’t the route they intend to take.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 28, 2009 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions
In the vein of potentially cheap AAA pickups...
Kevin Frandsen lost the battle for 2B in San Francisco this spring to Emmanuel Burriss. UZR/150 of 12.0 at 2B, though in limited time. Running .376 wOBA in 2009 (was out all of 2008) and has always had good minor league stats. Not all that young, far from a long-term option, and I’m not sure about his availability, but if the FO was intent on moving Lopez to third…
Just desperately looking for options better than Lopez/Cedeno/Woodward as our infield.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 27, 2009 11:25 PM PDT reply actions
I am sure Zduriencik feels much the same as you.
Just desperately looking for options better than Lopez/Cedeno/Woodward as our infield.
He’s probably combing the league like hell this weekend. At least we can trust he isn’t going to just pick up any random person without a particular skill set needed to fill the hole. And most importantly he won’t overpay.
Yep
DeRosa, a subject of trade rumors almost from the time he first slipped on an Indians uniform, is on the block no more. The Indians have traded the versatile veteran to the Cardinals for right-hander Chris Perez and a player to be named later. GM Mark Shapiro said the PTBN component is an important one, akin to the Coco Crisp and Michael Brantley acquisitions in the past.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 28, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
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