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Today's Ominous Fact

When Jack Zduriencik and the coaching staff agreed to come into the season with a bullpen built on the cheap, a lot of people were nervous. They looked at the unit, didn't recognize much in the way of shutdown talent, and determined that this group was likely to be a weakness. After 72 games of action, though, that same bullpen is second in the league in ERA and tied for second in saves, having held the fort on countless occasions when the team needed a scoreless inning. Vindication, right?

Kind of. But not really. See, while the bullpen has certainly worked out and done a good job of keeping the opponent off the board so far, it hasn't actually pitched well. At all. A glance:

ERA: 2nd
Contact%: 29th
K/BB: 28th
Strike%: 26th
HR/FB: 2nd (lowest)
tRA: 25th
tRA*: 30th

Wow. Okay, so according to all that the bullpen looks even worse than I thought it would when I started writing this. The ERA's great, but the unit doesn't miss bats, it doesn't throw strikes, and when you regress everything and look at arguably the most complete single measure of effectiveness, they come out last. Out of everyone. Even worse than the Nationals, who've racked up 11 successful saves and 17 failures. That's...well that's really bad.

What's interesting is that they haven't even been helped by a lucky BABIP. It's been success with men on base and success limiting home runs, and what's bad about those two things is that neither of them are sustainable. The numbers with men on base will rise, and as for the bullpen's HR/FB% of 6.5%, the lowest in baseball last year was 7.8%. Our relief corps to date has been overachieving, narrowly doing the job while treading on the brink of disaster.

This group just isn't very good as currently constructed, and the fact that they've held out this long without hurting the team (Morrow's blow-ups aside) is nothing short of a miracle. Mark Lowe's been a colossal disappointment. Miguel Batista still sucks. Sean White has more walks than strikeouts. And so forth. Only David Aardsma has really impressed among the regulars, and even he has been pitching well over his head.

There aren't enough guys in there capable of throwing strikes, and there aren't enough guys in there capable of pitching to lefties. This is something that's going to have to be addressed over the rest of the season as true talent levels become unpleasantly visible while the team tries to compete.

Fortunately, there's good news. Shawn Kelley is either the best or the second-best reliever in the system, and he's on his way back. With his ability to throw strikes and keep lefties off-balance, he's a perfect fit for the eighth inning. Josh Fields has struck out nine and walked none over his last eight appearances in AA after coming back from an injury. And with lefties littering the big league rotation and RRS getting ready in Tacoma, there are options there to fill a specialist role in relief. The Mariner bullpen isn't very good, but it's far from hopeless. Before long, this has the potential to be a pretty solid unit.

The issue is that this is the group we're going to take with us into LA, New York, and Boston, and while they've scraped by to date, I'm terrified that this will be the point at which things begin to go wrong. I can't imagine many things more deflating than hanging with three of the best teams in baseball, only to fall victim to some sudden regression in the later innings.

Listen up, bullpen. Somehow, some way, you've been good to us through the better part of three months. It hasn't always been easy, but through some sort of black magic, it's been effective. All I ask now is that you muster up the strength and fortitude to help keep this team competitive for just a little while longer until reinforcements start to arrive. You can bend. You can bend until the cows come home. Just don't break. This is your Thermopylae. Make us proud.

0 recs  |  Comment 35 comments |

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Comments

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Scary Business

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Jun 26, 2009 4:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the link. I actually learned a couple of things from it.

There is a problem with just looking at stats. He hasn’t been missing as many bats as he did in ’06, but aside from that, walks have gone down and he has been MUCH more effective this year. Did you watch the game last night. Lowe really saved that game. (2) on, no one out… Got the job done and then came in and pitched another inning.

by fanimer on Jun 26, 2009 6:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Take a look at his tRA (which Graham and Matthew invented) too.

Lowe’s tRA is 5.35 or so this year, which means he’s been getting hammered. Here’s the Mariners’ season stats, and here’s Lowe’s. For explainations of tRA, go here (way more than you ever wanted to know – in a good way – may be found here). Lowe has been a below average reliever this year, mainly because people have hit the crap out of the ball against him but those balls have found our outfielders’ gloves at a way above average rate (yay defense, but still).

by Decatur on Jun 26, 2009 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What I mean is that Lowe has been a colossal disappointment relative to his quality of stuff

He has a blazing fastball and has, at times, shown both his change and slider to be unhittable. But the end result has just so consistently been less than the sum of the parts. He’s missing fewer bats than ever before in his career, he’s still not throwing strikes, and he doesn’t work very well against lefties.

Mark Lowe should be so, so much better than he is.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 26, 2009 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right about the defense! The defense has saved more than one game this year.

Obviously Wak trusts him in tight spots, and most of time, he does well.
Yep, he’s been bad against lefties. I guess that’s why he pitched around A. Gonzales to load the bags last night.
I just think he, and the rest of the bullpen deserve a lot more credit than what was written.
If you listen to the announcers from other teams, they speak very higher of Lowe, White and Aardsma.

by fanimer on Jun 26, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huh. I prefer fun facts to ominous facts

Just FYI…

~I "write" about the Mariners. section331.com~

by section331 on Jun 26, 2009 11:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Deja vu...2006 all over again

Good honest analysis, Jeff.

Pitcher friendly Safeco strikes again and just like in 2006 phantom superior performance by the bullpen causes the M’s to overachieve. A 30-43 team is suddenly a 37-36 contender. Bavasi and the front office fell for the deception big time going into the 2007 season and set back the timetable for the M’s to really contend at least 3-4 years. Now GMZ is being goaded by clueless fans and media to once again abort the rebuilding process and add more fluff to the payroll seaching for a couple of over-the hill bats to get them to the playofffs, where without talent and depth, they would quickly become 3 and out fodder. Then sdd a couple of more years to the rebuilding process.
Hopefully GMZ is smart enough not to be fooled. Unfortunately injuries to Bedard, Beltre, Silva chavez and others who would have trade value, no longer are atttractive to the “real” contenders.

by gabbydog on Jun 27, 2009 2:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

GMZ is not going to rebuild this team

he’s going to build it while contending to the best of his ability every year. There are no absolutes on the path to building a great team – it’s not a “contend or rebuild, but not both” mentality.

by seattlebruin on Jun 27, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another brilliant mind pipes in

Contending with this team is a pipe dream- a delusion. There is very little talent, mediocrity is along way away. They are overachievers in a bad division and appear to be contenders because of a favorable early schedule. The next couple of weeks will show their true colors.

by gabbydog on Jun 27, 2009 6:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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