Today's Fun Fact
by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 10:55 AM PDT
in The More You Know
68 comments
Mariner offense by month:
April: .301 wOBA (29th)
May: .309 wOBA (26th)
June: .334 wOBA (8th)
Last 30 days: .342 wOBA (7th)
(wOBA and rankings not park-adjusted)
The team hasn't scored a whole lot of runs in June, but that's due to an unsustainably poor performance with men on base. The fact of the matter is that, for the past several weeks, this lineup has been pretty good. Over the last 30 days they've hit .279/.337/.457 as a group despite playing 12 games at home and 3 in San Diego, and while some of that comes from facing some lower-quality pitchers, most of it comes from a lot of the regulars swinging better bats. Guys we were waiting on to wake up have woken up, and the team's hit a lot better as a result.
Is it all for real? Not to this degree, no - Ichiro's been on an unbelievable tear, Lopez has hit a bunch of homers, and Beltre's played over his head. Some people are bound to slow down. But others are also bound to pick it up (Yuni isn't as bad as he's looked, and we're about to get Kenji back), and as things even out, it looks like this offense will leave its pathetic output behind and settle in somewhere in the middle of the pack. And the combination of an average offense with an average pitching staff and an above-average defense could very well be enough to put the M's over the top.
In the past, a lot of people have ripped this lineup to shreds. And it would be silly to say that they didn't deserve it. They sucked. But with the progress we've seen from a few key player over the last few weeks, I'd say things are looking up. This offense isn't the laughingstock as which it's been billed.
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"Ichiro's been on an unbelievable tear"
Actually this is Ichiro’s natural state. He just needed teh ticklin’ from GRIFFEY!
by lemonverbena on Jun 26, 2009 11:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro is visibly having more fun than I've seen him have in a while.
Whether that’s at all relevant, I have no idea.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jun 26, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never thought I'd be happy to have Johjima back. But he should be able to
improve the offense a bit. Yuni was also due for some positive upswing, too bad he got hurt, especially since his defense hadn’t been horrific the past couple weeks.
by Rudy4three on Jun 26, 2009 11:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey that was fun!
what gives?
I don’t think what we’re seeing offensively is all that unreasonable. Beltre is a streaky hitter, and his line for the month is actually pretty standard for what he does when it hurts him to swing at bad pitches. Once a little more time goes by, it’d be real interesting to look at his discipline numbers since the announcement of the bone spurs. Ichiro has been on a tear, true, but the only thing uncharacteristic about it is the power output, and even that is not totally out of character. Branyan has actually slowed down some, Gootch is doing only a little better than expected, the rest of the guys are more or less a wash.
I think there will be two things that to a large degree will determine the sustainability of this offense. One, if Joh can regain his ‘06 form and give us a decent bat at the back of the order. Two, if Balentien can start to act like he deserves a major league job (or if Saunders comes up from Tacoma swinging a hot bat). If those things come together I think this lineup can maintain something like a .330 wOBA for the rest of the season, and that’s good enough when matched with the run prevention unit.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 26, 2009 11:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well while I grant that Ichiro is awesome
somehow I think that a .444 batting average over his last 29 games is a little over his head.
by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't he usually have a stretch like that, evens out his crappy month of April?
by Kermit. on Jun 26, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he has these streaks, but he doesn't sustain them
by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there any indication why this happens? Adjustments on his part, eventually countered by the pitchers?
Anecdote-wise, I grew up hearing about that type of thing so I would have bought that without question. Then following the sabre community I would have had my doubts, but now after the recent Beltre strike zone/pitch location posts I’m back to believing in adjustments again.
by Kermit. on Jun 26, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's take his career .332 BA as his true talent
Using binomial probability, a guy with a .332 true talent BA will rip off a 55/124 (.444) streak 0.63% of the time, or once every 159 chances. Assuming 700 ABs a season, Ichiro would have 577 individual streaks of 124 at bats, making his odds at least once a year of doing this pretty favorable. Which is why he seems to have a history of catching fire like this.
I hope I’m doing this right. I’d say it’s less an adjustment thing and more just a probability thing.
by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could very easily be taking the wrong approach here
I never took advanced stats.
by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm fairly certain this is correct, assuming that your meaning is
“at some 124 AB run this season, Ichiro is likely to hit .444 for that stretch”
by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't account for the fact that Ichiro is a witch
by lemonverbena on Jun 26, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Build a bridge out of him?
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 26, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
those 577 stretches overlap each other a lot though
so they’re not independent probabilities.
So the odds here aren’t nearly as good as “577 separate trials at 0.63% each” (which would give Ichiro a 97% chance of a 55/124 streak each season). But I don’t know enough stats to get the right odds.
by oki92 on Jun 26, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what's supposed to happen
it’s an arbitrary 124 AB stretch that he’ll hit .444 over, not a defined “June” or “August”
by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's actually right
They aren’t independent intervals, so the probability is much lower than 97%. That said, I’m bored at work, so I ran a quick simulation (as I don’t feel like doing the actual math), and found the percent to be closer to 16.9%.
by Jono on Jun 26, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That sounds reasonable
and when you drop the threshold to, say, a 100-AB stretch where Ichiro bats .400, I imagine you’ll find that the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor.
by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely
You’re looking at ~86% of the time in that case.
by Jono on Jun 26, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's had a number of over .400 months in his career
particularly if you look at 30 game stretches instead of calendar months. I’m not saying he’s doing this all season, I’m just saying this isn’t Chavez in April or Bloomquist ’02.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 26, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dave compiled his monthly batting average on USSM a few years ago.
He routinely jumps around from .260 to .460.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jun 26, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro's impact
Take out Ichiro, and the team wOBA for June goes down to .322. Here’s the non-Ichiro roster, wOBA by month:
April: .299
May: .308
June: .322
Take away Ichiro, and the wOBA jump from May to June is 14 points instead of 25 points. Thankfully, we get to keep Ichiro, so this doesn’t really matter, but just to put it in perspective, almost 1/3 of the offensive improvement is just Ichiro getting ridiculously hot .
by davidcameron on Jun 26, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how SD looks without Gonzalez
actually nevermind, some questions are better left unanswered.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 26, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how Seattle looks without the Sonics
Oh wait, shit.
by lemonverbena on Jun 26, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
How do we not have an NHL team again?
by Matthew on Jun 26, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hockey is the whitest thing known to mankind.
by Matthew on Jun 26, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark Madsen?
I never really liked the old tagline.
CougCenter
by Dancing Football on Jun 26, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
NASCAR
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
by InSpokane on Jun 26, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Juan-Pablo Montoya
Show me a South American hockey player.
No, the Regehr brothers don’t count.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jun 26, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lutefisk.
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 26, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this fun fact.
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed
by gregrabble on Jun 26, 2009 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
These are some of the funnest facts I have read in a while.
~I "write" about the Mariners. section331.com~
by section331 on Jun 26, 2009 12:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like how there were concerns early on that Ichiro wouldn't reach 200 hits,
since he started on the DL.
by hcoguy on Jun 26, 2009 12:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Which is hilarious since he was going to be out like eight games, and really hasn't been all that close to 200 in a while
by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly I think it might have helped him
He traditionally sucks in April anyway, and he didn’t seem to sustain that same span of suckitude over to the his actual first month…basically he just sat out when he usually sucks and then hit like normal for the rest of the year.
by appleshampoo on Jun 26, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he missed those first 8 games so that he could break Sisler's record again
and this time in just 154 games, which is what I believe they played back in Sisler’s day
by Zack on Jun 26, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be unbelievably awesome
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 26, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh my god, that would be so amazing.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Jun 26, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro could fail to hit .300 and still get 200 hits
by Poochie on Jun 26, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A long time ago I was pretty shocked to find out...
…Ted Williams never had a 200 hit season.
Neither did Mantle. Ruth had a few, but he’s not a member of the 3,000 hit club (neither are, of course, Mantle nor Williams — but Williams likely would’ve been had he not been in several wars).
I always thought that every member of the 3,000 hit club had at least one 200-hit season, but actually of the 27 current members, 5 of them never had a 200-hit season. I thought I’d looked that up a long time ago and saw that they all had at least one, but that was way off.
Can anyone quickly name the player with the most career hits who never had a 200-hit season???
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 26, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Incorrect.
He had four. That said, I don’t know the answer either.
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 26, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All members of the 3K hit club:
Carl Yazstrzemski followed by Cap Anson, Eddie Murray, Dave Winfield and Rickey Henderson.
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 26, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cap Anson will always be one of my favorite baseball names.
I love Tris Speaker too.
by Sec 108 on Jun 27, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both horribly racist too.
If I remember correctly on Speaker.
by Mariner John on Jun 27, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Franklin seems to be legitimately heating up
I wonder if this is what he’s capable of doing for an entire season
by Fogel on Jun 26, 2009 2:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The only part of Ichiro's line right now that's unusual for him is the slugging.
Ichiro does not slug .500.
But, his GB%, LD%, and FB% are all pretty normal for him. His BABIP is .389, which looks absurd, but he managed .385 over a full season in 2007, and .398 in 2004.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jun 26, 2009 4:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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