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Today's Fun Fact

WE ARE THE GREATEST OFFENSE THAT HAS EVER PLAYED OFFENSE

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

WE ARE THE GREATEST OFFENSE THAT HAS EVER PLAYED OFFENSE

Mariner offense by month:

April: .301 wOBA (29th)
May: .309 wOBA (26th)
June: .334 wOBA (8th)

Last 30 days: .342 wOBA (7th)

(wOBA and rankings not park-adjusted)

The team hasn't scored a whole lot of runs in June, but that's due to an unsustainably poor performance with men on base. The fact of the matter is that, for the past several weeks, this lineup has been pretty good. Over the last 30 days they've hit .279/.337/.457 as a group despite playing 12 games at home and 3 in San Diego, and while some of that comes from facing some lower-quality pitchers, most of it comes from a lot of the regulars swinging better bats. Guys we were waiting on to wake up have woken up, and the team's hit a lot better as a result.

Is it all for real? Not to this degree, no - Ichiro's been on an unbelievable tear, Lopez has hit a bunch of homers, and Beltre's played over his head. Some people are bound to slow down. But others are also bound to pick it up (Yuni isn't as bad as he's looked, and we're about to get Kenji back), and as things even out, it looks like this offense will leave its pathetic output behind and settle in somewhere in the middle of the pack. And the combination of an average offense with an average pitching staff and an above-average defense could very well be enough to put the M's over the top.

In the past, a lot of people have ripped this lineup to shreds. And it would be silly to say that they didn't deserve it. They sucked. But with the progress we've seen from a few key player over the last few weeks, I'd say things are looking up. This offense isn't the laughingstock as which it's been billed.

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Comments

Display:

"Ichiro's been on an unbelievable tear"

Actually this is Ichiro’s natural state. He just needed teh ticklin’ from GRIFFEY!

by lemonverbena on Jun 26, 2009 11:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ichiro is visibly having more fun than I've seen him have in a while.

Whether that’s at all relevant, I have no idea.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 26, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never thought I'd be happy to have Johjima back. But he should be able to

improve the offense a bit. Yuni was also due for some positive upswing, too bad he got hurt, especially since his defense hadn’t been horrific the past couple weeks.

by Rudy4three on Jun 26, 2009 11:12 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey that was fun!

what gives?

I don’t think what we’re seeing offensively is all that unreasonable. Beltre is a streaky hitter, and his line for the month is actually pretty standard for what he does when it hurts him to swing at bad pitches. Once a little more time goes by, it’d be real interesting to look at his discipline numbers since the announcement of the bone spurs. Ichiro has been on a tear, true, but the only thing uncharacteristic about it is the power output, and even that is not totally out of character. Branyan has actually slowed down some, Gootch is doing only a little better than expected, the rest of the guys are more or less a wash.

I think there will be two things that to a large degree will determine the sustainability of this offense. One, if Joh can regain his ‘06 form and give us a decent bat at the back of the order. Two, if Balentien can start to act like he deserves a major league job (or if Saunders comes up from Tacoma swinging a hot bat). If those things come together I think this lineup can maintain something like a .330 wOBA for the rest of the season, and that’s good enough when matched with the run prevention unit.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 26, 2009 11:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well while I grant that Ichiro is awesome

somehow I think that a .444 batting average over his last 29 games is a little over his head.

by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is there any indication why this happens? Adjustments on his part, eventually countered by the pitchers?

Anecdote-wise, I grew up hearing about that type of thing so I would have bought that without question. Then following the sabre community I would have had my doubts, but now after the recent Beltre strike zone/pitch location posts I’m back to believing in adjustments again.

by Kermit. on Jun 26, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's take his career .332 BA as his true talent

Using binomial probability, a guy with a .332 true talent BA will rip off a 55/124 (.444) streak 0.63% of the time, or once every 159 chances. Assuming 700 ABs a season, Ichiro would have 577 individual streaks of 124 at bats, making his odds at least once a year of doing this pretty favorable. Which is why he seems to have a history of catching fire like this.

I hope I’m doing this right. I’d say it’s less an adjustment thing and more just a probability thing.

by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

those 577 stretches overlap each other a lot though

so they’re not independent probabilities.

So the odds here aren’t nearly as good as “577 separate trials at 0.63% each” (which would give Ichiro a 97% chance of a 55/124 streak each season). But I don’t know enough stats to get the right odds.

by oki92 on Jun 26, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's what's supposed to happen

it’s an arbitrary 124 AB stretch that he’ll hit .444 over, not a defined “June” or “August”

by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's actually right

They aren’t independent intervals, so the probability is much lower than 97%. That said, I’m bored at work, so I ran a quick simulation (as I don’t feel like doing the actual math), and found the percent to be closer to 16.9%.

by Jono on Jun 26, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That sounds reasonable

and when you drop the threshold to, say, a 100-AB stretch where Ichiro bats .400, I imagine you’ll find that the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor.

by Jeff on Jun 26, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Definitely

You’re looking at ~86% of the time in that case.

by Jono on Jun 26, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's had a number of over .400 months in his career

particularly if you look at 30 game stretches instead of calendar months. I’m not saying he’s doing this all season, I’m just saying this isn’t Chavez in April or Bloomquist ’02.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 26, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dave compiled his monthly batting average on USSM a few years ago.

He routinely jumps around from .260 to .460.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 26, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ichiro's impact

Take out Ichiro, and the team wOBA for June goes down to .322. Here’s the non-Ichiro roster, wOBA by month:

April: .299
May: .308
June: .322

Take away Ichiro, and the wOBA jump from May to June is 14 points instead of 25 points. Thankfully, we get to keep Ichiro, so this doesn’t really matter, but just to put it in perspective, almost 1/3 of the offensive improvement is just Ichiro getting ridiculously hot .

by davidcameron on Jun 26, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I wonder how SD looks without Gonzalez

actually nevermind, some questions are better left unanswered.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 26, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mark Madsen?

I never really liked the old tagline.

CougCenter

by Dancing Football on Jun 26, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

NASCAR

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Jun 26, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Juan-Pablo Montoya

Show me a South American hockey player.

No, the Regehr brothers don’t count.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 26, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Jun 26, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lutefisk.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 26, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ew.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 26, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he missed those first 8 games so that he could break Sisler's record again

and this time in just 154 games, which is what I believe they played back in Sisler’s day

by Zack on Jun 26, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh my god, that would be so amazing.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Jun 26, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A long time ago I was pretty shocked to find out...

…Ted Williams never had a 200 hit season.

Neither did Mantle. Ruth had a few, but he’s not a member of the 3,000 hit club (neither are, of course, Mantle nor Williams — but Williams likely would’ve been had he not been in several wars).

I always thought that every member of the 3,000 hit club had at least one 200-hit season, but actually of the 27 current members, 5 of them never had a 200-hit season. I thought I’d looked that up a long time ago and saw that they all had at least one, but that was way off.

Can anyone quickly name the player with the most career hits who never had a 200-hit season???

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 26, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Franklin seems to be legitimately heating up

I wonder if this is what he’s capable of doing for an entire season

by Fogel on Jun 26, 2009 2:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The only part of Ichiro's line right now that's unusual for him is the slugging.

Ichiro does not slug .500.

But, his GB%, LD%, and FB% are all pretty normal for him. His BABIP is .389, which looks absurd, but he managed .385 over a full season in 2007, and .398 in 2004.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 26, 2009 4:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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