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36-35, Chart

6_24_medium

Biggest Contribution: Russell Branyan, +24.3%
Biggest Suckfest: Brandon Morrow, -13.8%
Most Important PA: Branyan homer, +29.7%
Most Important Pitch: Kouzmanoff homer, -16.7%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +28.8%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +21.2%
Total Contribution by Opposition: 0.0%
(What is this chart?)

0 recs  |  Comment 30 comments |

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Ok, no opportunity to comment in the "What is this chart" link

and I have a similar comment although I watched the game, what does the negative mean for the Kouzmanoff homer or the negative value for Brandon Morrow mean. I thought his pitching was OK and he did have what Dave Sims/Bill Kruger said was a “never seen it before double play”.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jun 24, 2009 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kouzmanoff's homer dropped our chances of winning by 16.7%.

Morrow is negative because he caused the game to be a 2 run defecit and then to be tied. Both are worse situations than a scoreless tie and a 3-2 lead.

by Mariner John on Jun 24, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, I felt like that after the homer, I just can't believe someone figured out how to quantify it.

Amazing. I actually thought it might be bigger than that statistically. My original thought was that players would be getting credit for stuff they did that really didn’t mean anything.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jun 24, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The charts here are a bit different

but Fangraphs has a glossary with links explaining some facets of win probability.

by BrianL on Jun 24, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great resource, Thanks. But the word at the end was clutch, with no additional link.

I would say that what I’ve seen from Lopez this season, he is a clutch hitter, but my tenant tells me that is wrong, that clutch hitting is a misnomer. I’ll believe that for now, I’ve found lots of statistics about runners batted in but nowhere have I found statistics that the runner left on third base is charged to the batter or his performance, I mean how often is the number of players left on base brought up; that is major. How good are you if there is a runner on third and you can’t get him home some percentage of the time. I think you have to think the batter at 2nd might be Mike Sweeney and cannot score, but the batter at 3rd certainly would score if you could get to first. Is this tracked somewhere?

by Mrs. Robinson on Jun 24, 2009 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two things:

1) Clutch probably doesn’t exist – or at least there is not a lot of evidence that it exists. It is being studied (there is a clutch score on fangraphs that I think refers to exactly what you were asking – how often they performed during high leverage situations) but it has not been studied in depth and may easily be noise. At the same time, there may be a combination of it existing and not existing. For example, maybe it is impossible for a player to “up their game” in clutch situations, but it is possible for a player to “choke” from nervousness (thus making unclutch possible, while truly being clutch is impossible).

2) In a way, that is tracked by WPA. A player who is constantly not succeeding in high leverage (“clutch”) situations is going to have a much lower WPA than their hitting stats suggest they should simply because WPA penalizes a lot for not succeeding in clutch situations.

It is worth mentioning that WPA assumes that all teams and players are equal in talent, which we know they are not. As you mentioned, a guy who was able to hit a single with Griffey on second is much less likely to get the runner in than a guy who hits a single with Ichiro on second, and in some ways WPA penalizes the batter for not being able to get Griffey home even though it was due to Griffey simply being slow as shit. These are things that are problems with these stats, but mostly due to the novelty of the stats and how much resources people have to study and perfect them. Someday it is likely that there will be a WPA that takes into account far more variables than it does now.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Jun 24, 2009 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, it is good to know clutch doesn't exist. It was quesionable at best.

It just “seemed” like it was real. I guess ultimately I figured that players like Ichiro, Arod, Griffey, etc would be clutch hitters and they aren’t so why would Lopez qualify? If your best hitters can’t “up their game” why would I or anyone think questionable hitters are doing it. It’s probably not happening and I’m good with that.
 
As far as WPA goes, I’m looking for that stat or it’s replacement to be improved upon in the near future to account for the the factors mentioned.

Thanks for the responses. I want to understand this more and you have helped.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jun 25, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno.

I can’t remember exactly but I thought clutch hitting did exist. Just not “clutch hitters.”

by ThundaPC on Jun 25, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In much shittier news, Beltre didn't look good at all trying to play through his injury today

Health-wise at least. He was obviously laboring while running to second on his double and seemed to be showing a great deal of pain after fielding a grounder.

Bracing myself for losing him for most of the rest of the season soon :*(

by OlSalty on Jun 24, 2009 10:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, those two line drive hits were terrible.

And he got robbed on a third.

If he is willing to play through the bone spurs and does this every night, I have no problem with it.

by Wilder. on Jun 24, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's why I said "health-wise" not "results-wise"

The pain was very very obvious on his face when he was running the bases and fielding, that is not a good sign that he’ll be able to do this every day without surgery for the rest of the season.

by OlSalty on Jun 24, 2009 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Athletes play through pain all the time.

As long as it doesn’t lead to further injury, I wouldn’t worry about it. Sounds as though the bone spurs won’t lead to anything further.

Giving Beltre an extra game off every week might not be such a bad idea, though.

by Wilder. on Jun 24, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's his shoulder yeah, but that's affected by running too

He looked like he was running weird to me, like he wasn’t pumping his arms like he normally does, it was kind of like how Yuni runs with the t-rex arms except Beltre isn’t a retard he’s hurt. And at one point he grabbed his shoulder after making a play.

I realize players play through pain all the time but those are not good signs that he is coping with it well.

by OlSalty on Jun 24, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They need to stop him them.

He shouldn’t be playing through pain, if it might cause further injury. He needs to be benched. No one should risk permanent injury to play this game. That sounds a little/lot nanny-state, but I hope the M’s are wanting to take care of a person, more than they are wanting to have someone they can re-sign or trade in the future. It is just a game after all.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jun 24, 2009 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They are paying him for his value.

If he wants to play through the pain AND can bring good value to the team, then it is not in their best interests to convince him to be benched. Yeah, he may suffer from permanent injury, but if he has value to bring and he wants to bring it, it is within the Mariners rights as the ones paying him millions of dollars to let him. It’s in Beltre’s best interest too, because performing well will increase his chances of a huge payday in the offseason.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Jun 24, 2009 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I get that, but he is a person, not a commodity.

I read a book in junior high called “Meat on the Hoof”. I only vaguely remember it, but the point it brought home for me was that atheletes were like cows to a farmer (I was raised on a farm). They are worth whatever you can get for them or whatever they can give you. I think certainly Endy and Beltre and even Betancourt deserves more than that. They are people with athletic gifts that most people don’t have. For that, they are more than “Meat on the Hoof”. I realize that it’s in Beltre’s best interest too, but it’s that just a sad picture of where this all is. (I sure hope this isn’t political – if it is, please delete, I don’t mean mean offend).

by Mrs. Robinson on Jun 25, 2009 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I only bring up the book since I think that's why I haven't followed MLB.

If I remember the book was about Texas football – college style, but I think it could be applied to any sport. In any case, I’m thinking I like watching the M’s.

by Mrs. Robinson on Jun 25, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"I get that, but he is a person, not a commodity. "

This is debatable though. This is not like a college player who may never succeed in sports and needs to also get an education in order to make a modest wage. These are people played millions and millions of dollars on an unbreakable contract. They are bought, traded and sold like rare art because they are valued like rare art and in some ways perform the same function.

No one wishes injury on anyone, especially serious injury – but when it is in two people’s mutual interest to keep playing – Beltre to hopefully earn a large contract in the offseason and the Mariners to get the performance they are legally required to pay him for – then he is a resource that can be tapped for the Mariner’s benefit.

Also, the risk of injury is inherent in all sports. In some sports, that does not justify risking further injury, I agree. But in baseball, they have unbreakable contracts SPECIFICALLY for that reason – so that you are forced to keep paying the player because they are going out there and risking injury at your expense. What you are requesting gives justification for non-guaranteed contracts, which I can promise you would make the players that are risking injury far less happy.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Jun 25, 2009 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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