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Tiny by Jeff on in Miscellaneous Comment 140 comments

The Mariners, right now, are two back of the Angels and two and a half back of the Rangers. PECOTA gives them a 17.6% chance of playing postseason baseball.

Over their next three games, the Angels play Colorado and draw Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Jason Marquis.

Over their next three games, the Rangers play Arizona and draw Max Scherzer, Dan Haren, and Jon Garland.

Over their next three games, the Mariners play San Diego and draw Chad Gaudin, Josh Geer, and Wade LeBlanc.

With the road trip from hell looming just around the corner, the M's could really stand to narrow the division gap a little more than they already have, and the good news is that the next three games should present such an opportunity. All three Padre pitchers have their upsides, but they're nothing compared to what the other guys are going to see.

After everything the M's have been through, it's hard to believe this is still a three-team race. And if they can make it to the first Monday of July without falling apart, then it's time to start thinking - I mean seriously thinking - about gunning for the playoffs.

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If they were able to win with a lineup like they had yesterday.

Then I am thinking they should go for the playoffs too.

2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4

by Fin on Jun 22, 2009 11:46 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

BUY! BUY! BUY!

And by that I mean BOTH! BOTH! BOTH!

If they could figure out the Brandon Morrow situation and make a damned decision on that…

They have pieces to trade, although losing Endy does take away a little depth.

It’s just refreshing, for once, to know that our GM isn’t likely to be fleeced by a deal, whether it’s a buy or a sell…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jun 22, 2009 11:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It's occurred to me that the Padres are exceptional at fielding players that I have never heard of

which means either their FO is finding undervalued players (the literal “I can field a team entirely of guys you’ve never heard of”) or they really, really suck.

by seattlebruin on Jun 22, 2009 11:52 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The Nationals are #3

but they’re probably half players who are old and suck and half players I’ve never heard of.

Even the Padres recognizable players (besides Gonzalez and Peavy) are essentially nobodies (Kouzmanoff, Headley, Tony Gwynn)

by seattlebruin on Jun 22, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I actually know almost all of the Nats position players.

Starting pitchers gets a little less.

Relief pitchers? Now you’re talking about nobodies.

by Limerickx on Jun 22, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is worth noting that the Yankees are playing some poor baseball at the moment

having just dropped series to the Marlins and Nationals. I know streaks are not -very- predictive but there is a difference between playing a team that’s firing on all cylinders and a team that’s in a group slump.

I have little hope for the Boston series and hope to leave with one win. Ditto for the Dodgers.

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 11:56 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it:

1. "I know streaks are not very predictive "
2. “there is a difference between playing a team that’s firing on all cylinders and a team that’s in a group slump”

1 negates 2. Unless you talk about the Yanks being in a group slump when we happen to play them, but being as slumps are not predictive, you cannot predict when they’ll occur, as you point in out in 1.

by Matthew on Jun 22, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess I'm drawing a distinction between an individual in a slump

and a team having a variety of problems. I haven’t been following the Yankees but I talked to a fan last night who seemed to think that Rodriguez has rushed his return from surgery and been worked too hard, that Chamberlain doesn’t have the endurance to start and that Wang lost something after his surgery and hasn’t gotten it back. Maybe this impression is magnified by the recent losses to bad teams and the fact that every time a yankee gets a cold I hear about it.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"I haven’t been following the Yankees but I talked to a fan last night......"

I think I found your problem.

If I hear one more idiot Yankee fan talk about how they think Joba is most valuable as a relief setup man ace (I live 5 minutes right outside NYC) I will punch someone.

by Limerickx on Jun 22, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair to my acquaintance, who is extremely intelligent when it comes to things outside baseball,

he wasn’t arguing that Joba would better serve the team as a reliever, only that he may not have it in him to be a very effective starter. And this may be true after all; who knows maybe Joba’s a diabetic.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think your right.

Living in NY, I’ve heard the same things. I follow the Yankees a little bit (I hate them, but my Dad is a huge fan) and it seems that A-Rod is still recovering from the surgery. I think he’ll be fine with a little rest, but right now he’s not close to 100%. Chamberlain is a good pitcher, but he is not the next Cy Young that everyone was making him out to be in 2007. And there is obviously something wrong with Wang.

I wouldn’t say that they’re slumping as a team and that it will carry over, but if A-Rod still isn’t healthy when we face them that will be great news.

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Jun 22, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course

I meant that Chamberlain is not actually pitching poorly, but it seems that way because of all the hype and NEXT stuff we heard about. He’s just going through what most young pitchers do. I was trying to say that Cahmberlain isn’t struggling because of endurance issues, rather it’s because he is a young pitcher and people are adjusting to him.

It didn’t come out exactly the way I meant it.

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Jun 22, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If past experience has taught me anything

now is the time to make a deal for a mediocre role player

by Poochie on Jun 22, 2009 12:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Can we possibly call it a need considering the bonanza of toolsy lefty OFers this org is sitting on?

I mean I know they’re not ready for the majors but when you’re filling in for Endy Chavez the bar isn’t unspeakably high.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The team needs a 4th OF

and given the current starting one is Balentien, and the nature of Safeco Field, a left-handed hitting one would be ideal.

by Matthew on Jun 22, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's better than dealing away a passable, but aging setup man

for a recently injured former top pitching prospect.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Jun 22, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait

Is it time to dig up the corpse of Bobby Ayala?

by 13194013 on Jun 22, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was going to half-heartedly suggest Snelling

Because he had been playing in the Mexican leagues all year. Looks like the Pirates picked him up about a week ago though.

by sulles on Jun 22, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fun with numbers ...

Puckett & the KJR callers are debating the return of Johjima, because as you know, the team ERA is so much better with Rob Johnson.

by msb on Jun 22, 2009 12:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

....

it’s not even like Kenji is all that good

by seattlebruin on Jun 22, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Remember when

we thought that his 2007 was a down year? Yeah… Bavasi really made sure the team would stay good and boned for a few years yet.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bavasi was the GM

ergo it was his fault. And Joh’s deal is one of the team’s least problems, but it reminded me of the generally sad state of affairs. Was there a single trade Bavasi was involved in that wasn’t a disaster? I can think of one – Rhodes (or was that Pelekoudas?)

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's poor reasoning. Bavasi was GM, but he still had superiors.

Also, yes there were quite a few trades Bavasi made that weren’t a disaster. The Garcia trade was great, the trade for Carvajel, the Winn trade at the time seemed good. The Rhodes trade, the Ron Villone trade. That’s just a few. The Sean Green trade if you want to go post-analysis, etc.

by Matthew on Jun 22, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Forgot about Garcia; that was fine.

So, high profile moves Bavasi made which helped the team; Beltre, Ichiro, Ibanez, Garcia trade. Am I missing anything major? Guillen signing would have been an overall plus if not for the arbitration nonsense.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You cannot remove Guillen entirely just because of that.

They still got a good+ year out of Guillen for very little.

by Matthew on Jun 22, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reminds me of a quote from former Soviet PM Chernomyrdin

“we tried [to make it turn out] for the better, but it came out like always”

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't actually have a chance to change the channel (that darned work) yet, and and here was Fain

back again, and sitting in for Furness — wondering if the fanbase now thinks they should be buyers, not sellers.

by msb on Jun 22, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That has been a big part of the post game too. Blech. 20 callers taking turns yelling buy! or sell!

I’m interested in the moves the Angels or the Rangers make. My knowledge of their teams, FO personnel, and spending abilities is very limited to non-existent so I’m very curious as to what they can and will do.

by Kermit. on Jun 22, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Caller:

“the only way that (Bedard) trade is worth it is if you get into the playoffs and make a noise so no to selling”

by msb on Jun 22, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aw.

Fain is very against getting rid of the veterans; he hated that whole ‘’sell now sell now drivel" being thrown around, because the team wasn’t and isn’t that bad.

by msb on Jun 22, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ooh, it was all Sandmeyer.

apparently, he’s the one obsessing about the wonderfulness of Rob Johnson, as he keeps repeating the catchers & pitchers ERA for Johnson & Joh (“I’m not trying to cause controversy, I’m not trying to stir the pot, I’m just laying out the numbers”) He then plays audio of pitchers responding favorably to questions about Johnson’s catching as though they are volunteering the information.

by msb on Jun 23, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are still upgrades that I would like to see from within.

Clement still needs to come up to catch twice a week, Saunders needs his chance if Wlad does not improve, and Morrow needs to go to AAA and learn to pitch as a starter, hopefully with a view to him coming back in September for a run at the playoffs.

And of course, Yuni needs to go somewhere far away [Cuba?] and be replaced with a league average left handed bat.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jun 22, 2009 12:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I believe a Yuni replacement is being actively pursued

so I have faith that as soon as a viable option surfaces the team will take it. There are no internal solutions to the MIF travesty. Luis Valbuena, however, is making the most of his cup o coffee with Cleveland.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd settle for getting Bloomquist back

or better yet try to get Punto away from the Twins, contracts be damned.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's where I am with Yuni

but I believed he could turn it around up until May so I’m extra bitter.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If it is all the same to you,

I would prefer to never get Bloomquist back.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Jun 23, 2009 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fine

But if Yuni takes out another outfielder you’re to blame

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 23, 2009 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Watching a Royals game might be even weirder.

I attended the Royals game last Wednesday and Willie Bloomquist, Jose Guillen, and Miguel Olivo were in the starting lineup and Tug Hulett was used as a defensive replacement in left field. The only way it could’ve been wierder is if Meche instead of Greinke had been pitching.

by Decatur on Jun 22, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is all exciting!

While Lopez and Betancourt are starters on the team I will try not to get too excited.

by mark sobba on Jun 22, 2009 12:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

So, about that lefty on the DL

Is there any thought to holding onto Bedard and resigning him after ‘09? I doubt we can get much for him in a trade because of the injury concerns and if we’re fighting for the playoffs we don’t want to deal him for 80 cents on the dollar. In addition, it is unlikely (read: nearly impossible) for him to become a Type A FA, and if he misses more time he might not even be Type B. With that in mind, I think the best scenario would be to sign him to a 3 year, incentive laden contract and hope he stays healthy. I haven’t seen this discussed anywhere and I wanted to hear your thoughts. (If it has been discussed a lot, I must have missed it. Mea culpa.)

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Jun 22, 2009 1:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It has been discussed quite a lot, here's the bullet points.

Would Bedard be nice to keep around? Yes. Whether that’s a good decision depends on how much you’d have to pay him (we don’t know), and what you’d give up by keeping him and not trading him (possibly Type B compensation, but we don’t know if he’d reject arbitration) and what’d you give up by not trading him (impossible to know) and whether or not you could trade him and have him still resign this winter (impossible to know).

Just too much speculation.

by Matthew on Jun 22, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I keep thinking this is 2007 all over again.

And that our GM will look at us being close to the playoffs and sell out our whole organization for “that one veteran player that will push us over the top.” Then I remember who our GM is, and what he has done so far, and think that this just might work out.

Awaiting the day I catch a Russell Branyan foul ball. I will make love to it.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Jun 22, 2009 1:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If we had traded for Bedard in July of 2007

that would have made so much more goddamn sense

by Matthew on Jun 22, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that came out wrong.

I was trying to liken our situation in the 2008 offseason (misguided FO thinks we’re close to contention in the AL West) and now (legitimately close to contention in the AL West with a better FO). The misguided FO sold out for Bedard, but I don’t see Jack Z. getting fleeced like that.

Awaiting the day I catch a Russell Branyan foul ball. I will make love to it.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Jun 22, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Per the LA Times

The Dodgers are interested in Washburn

It’s a small quote near the bottom of the article. Is Washburn in line to start vs the Dodgers on the next road trip?

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 22, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Also unrelated but

This article on Torii Hunter made me laugh, mostly because of its premise not its content.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 22, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, he starts the last game of the Pads series

which means, hey another shitty offense!

by Matthew on Jun 22, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No. Looks like Vargas-Felix-Olson

unless Bedard can cut in there somewhere.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But they had Russell Martin!

who might not actually be finished!

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 22, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking ahead to the Dodgers

Pitching matchups as of right now:

Vargas vs. Weaver
Hernandez vs. Kershaw
Olson vs. Kuroda

If ever there was a chance to take 2 out of 3 from the Dodgers, I’d say this is it. First two are very winnable, and Kuroda has struggled his last two starts (doesn’t mean it’s indicative of anything).

by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 22, 2009 2:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If there's a pitcher our lineup is designed to struggle against, it's Jeff Weaver.

and Olson v. Kuroda doesn’t look like a great matchup for us either

by seattlebruin on Jun 22, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much

he’s been inconsistent but against a team of hackers like the M’s I could see him having a good game.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 22, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Basically Kershaw's opponent is Felix, and he's left-handed

so while not a good matchup, it’s not a really terrible one either

by seattlebruin on Jun 22, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My main point was that

we don’t draw Wolf or Billingsley, who are probably their two best. And we don’t start Morrow against them, which is nice.

Jeff Weaver has had good streaks in the past, but has proven time and again that he’s not that good of a pitcher. That being said, he could destroy us.

On Kershaw:
A) Lefty
B) Felix

Olson vs. Kuroda is admittedly a bad matchup, which I never denied.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 22, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly!

Jason fucking Vargas man! We’re guaranteed a victory.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Jun 23, 2009 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know...

dude throws strikes, and that’s always a mistake with these Mariners. I’m pretty excited about that game actually.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 23, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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