35-34, Chart
by Jeff on Jun 21, 2009 11:30 PM PDT
in Game Recaps
67 comments
Above .500 with a run differential of -20. This is starting to feel a little familiar.
They say that good teams make their own luck. I don't buy that for a second. Luck, by its very definition, cannot be caused. The thing about luck, though, is that while it can happen to anyone, some teams are able to take more advantage of it than others, and if the short-handed Mariners use things like Clark's error tonight and Hundley's error a few days ago in order to stay afloat, then so be it. You can't make yourself look better by causing good luck, but there's nothing wrong with taking advantage of a little good luck while you wait to get better.
We won. We won with that lineup.
Biggest Contribution: Yuniesky Betancourt, +15.9%
Biggest Suckfest: Chris Woodward, -22.6%
Most Important AB: Clark error, +34.4%
Most Important Pitch: Reynolds homer, -47.3%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +13.6%
Total Contribution by Lineup: -21.3%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +57.7%
(What is this chart?)
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Two things
1) Eight swings and no misses for Mark Reynolds against Felix? For shame.
2) Also this
by Jeff on Jun 21, 2009 11:34 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
I hope he stays in the majors for a long time.
by Mariner John on Jun 21, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Michael Phelps should be taking notes.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
by nickmo on Jun 22, 2009 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On my scorecard for the game,
I put “(moustache)” after Zavada’s name. I should have just put him down as Moustache.
by appleshampoo on Jun 22, 2009 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark Reynolds is having one of the weirdest seasons ever.
The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.425 wOBA, 21 years old.
by Goose on Jun 22, 2009 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mustachioed!
Such impressive facial hair; the rest of the league should take notes.
by 13194013 on Jun 22, 2009 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know who or what you are but I love you.
by acblue on Jun 22, 2009 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this based soley off his username?
by Kirkharbaugh on Jun 22, 2009 1:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I enjoy him.
This is based solely on his name though because 7 comments isn’t quite enough to know if he is a total package yet.
by Kirkharbaugh on Jun 22, 2009 1:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sifl and Ollie!
What a great show.
I never really liked the old tagline.
CougCenter
by Dancing Football on Jun 22, 2009 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the correct use of the semicolon.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Jun 22, 2009 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Felix data
62% strikes, 10.7% swinging strikes
71 fastballs, 9 sliders, 20 changeups, 9 curves, 3 pitches missed by PITCHf/x
6 swinging strikes on the change, 4 on the slider, 1 on the fastball, 1 on the curve
9 grounders, 6 flies, 5 line drives
by Jeff on Jun 21, 2009 11:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm trying to wrap my head around the use of swinging strikes to evaluate individual starts.
Would it be productive or even possible to create a “weighted swinging strike percentage” (call it “wSSP” or whatever) that factored in the environment (contract rate-related park factors) and the contact percentage of the team the pitcher faces (team contact % ranges from ~75.3% to ~84.6%, and the D-Backs have the second lowest contact rate in the majors at 77.7%) or, probably more accurately, the combined season (or 3 year, maybe) contact % of each hitter in the lineup? It seems like a pitcher should get a good deal more credit for having, say, 10% swinging strikes against the Mets, who have a contact % of 84.6%, than having a 10% swinging strike rate against the Rangers, who have a 75.3% contact % and have Chris Davis regularly in the lineup.
by Decatur on Jun 22, 2009 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And then we could turn it around and use it to compare batters
And feel even angrier about having Yuni on the team
by Tube on Jun 22, 2009 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have a point but over a season opposition averages out (unless you pitch in ALE)
and on a per start basis the difference between a 75 and 85% contact rate will be about one StrSw, so if Felix gets ten on a day he wasn’t that sharp it’s still good news. Also, once you start looking that closely at opposition you may as well start looking at lineup handedness and success against pitch types and so on. Diminishing returns.
By the way, if league avg contact rate is ~80%, how is league avg StrSw rate ~8? I think I’m missing something obvious again.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Different denominators
Contact rate = (fouls+BIP)/swings
StrSw = swinging strikes/pitches
by Graham on Jun 22, 2009 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
12.0% swinging strike rate so far this year.
He’s ~equaled his value from all of last year. Dear god I hope Z resigns him.
by Zwakamatsu on Jun 22, 2009 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are those your numbers or Gamedays?
cause they mischaracterize about 1/4 Felix changeups, from what I’ve noticed.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Always nice to be able to pull out a win while missing Beltre, Branyan, and Lopez.
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed
by gregrabble on Jun 21, 2009 11:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And each time we pull out a lucky victory, it's gotta help our chances that much more
considering how bad the division is. If we get “lucky” ~10 more times than we’re “unlucky,” that’s gonna swing a division that’s so bad and so close. So hooray!
by calim on Jun 22, 2009 12:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why is the division 'so bad.' What constitutes a 'bad division'?
We have three teams in our divison over .500. The Central (with one more team) only has one. The two worst records in the AL belong to Central teams. Three teams in our divison have a winning record against the AL East opponents. What is ‘bad’?
by greg briley on Jun 22, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have no legitimately good team and our division's overall run differential is -30
the AL Central and NL East are also bad.
by Jeff on Jun 22, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm starting to think that it's more a matter of the AL East being insanely good than it is the AL West and Central being unthinkably bad
by seattlebruin on Jun 22, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe four of the five best teams in baseball play in one division
by Jeff on Jun 22, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Tigers starting pitching ranges from really good to horrific 18 car pile up bad and often times struggle to score.
The White Sox are seven shades of messed up.
The Twins are better than their record.
The Indians campaign is more of a back yard camping trip gone awry.
The Royals remembered they are the Kansas City Royals… but with Gil Meche!
by 13194013 on Jun 22, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot to use this field in my previous post.
My apologies.
by 13194013 on Jun 22, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, true. Run differential being a sign of dominance. Don't even get into VORP with the Mariners (or anything else that evaluates talent/lack thereof)...
I guess my only point being that while the division is subpar, it certainly isn’t Journey-cover-band-playing-at-your-favorite-bar-bad…. just karaoke-at-your-cousin’s-wedding-reception-bad. I mean, what did you expect? Any other wedding reception with karaoke is just as bad. That’s my point.
by greg briley on Jun 22, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The whole three teams over .500 thing
is very likely to change by season’s end, when the effects of run differential will be more amplified/stabilized. I hate power rankings but if you were to rank the ML teams in order of likely # wins at season’s end I don’t think the ALW cracks the top ten and I guess average place would be something like 18-20.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but it is still early in the season (most teams playing about 70 games)
so it is certain these numbers will change (even in the aggregate) as well. In the end though, at least one AL West team will emerge from this mess and crack the top ten. After all, look how many times that said team will face the Athletics.
by greg briley on Jun 22, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude I am 4-0 at Safeco now!
I think that damn Felix jersey is a good luck charm.
by Fin on Jun 22, 2009 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2-0 for me and my wife this year.
Both Felix games, though.
Awaiting the day I catch a Russell Branyan foul ball. I will make love to it.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
by JLProck on Jun 22, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
3-0
With 2 Vargas starts and a Jakabauskas!
I never really liked the old tagline.
CougCenter
by Dancing Football on Jun 22, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I bet we lead the league in unearned wins.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Jun 22, 2009 1:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the M's have evened out nicely by losing games they were supposed to win.
2009 Safeco Field Record: 4-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 8-4
by Fin on Jun 22, 2009 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have chosen to define unearned wins as wins generated by an error.
Brandon Morrow gives up earned suck.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Jun 22, 2009 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anybody, Anytime right Tony?
Anybody can lose the game, at anytime.
The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.425 wOBA, 21 years old.
by Goose on Jun 22, 2009 1:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
When this season ends and the Mariners are in the playoffs, and the DBacks win the Bryce Harper sweepstakes,
I’m going to proclaim this the best series of all time.
The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.425 wOBA, 21 years old.
by Goose on Jun 22, 2009 1:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yow
I didn’t see that coming. But hey, the Yanks just lost two to the Natinals so there’s that.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We were like 100% at the start of 2008
by seattlebruin on Jun 22, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was before people knew that Bedard is a health risk
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tampa in fourth with a +76 RD.
Bless our little division.
by waldo rojas on Jun 22, 2009 7:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Our clubhouse attitude differential is crazy high though
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which explains why we beat everyone but the Team of God
by seattlebruin on Jun 22, 2009 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yatzee!
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 22, 2009 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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