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Jarrod Washburn Is Really Different

Here's a chart showing all of Washburn's most relevant statistics as compared to his 2006-2008 average:

Stat 2006-2008 2009
Strike% 62.1% 61.9%
StCalled% 17.0% 17.6%
StSwinging% 6.0% 7.3%
StFoul% 18.4% 16.3%
StInPlay% 20.3% 20.5%
GB% 37.2% 38.6%
FB% 40.8% 38.6%
LD% 20.1% 21.8%
HR/BIA% 6.1% 4.1%
PA% vs. LHB 23.3% 27.8%
tRA+ 91 109

You'll notice that there's been no change in Washburn's tendency to throw strikes, nor has there been a change in his ball in play distribution. What there has been is an increase in swinging strikes, an increase in lefties faced, and a decrease in the number of fly balls clearing the fence.

You should immediately recognize that two of those things are out of Washburn's control. There's no reason why he should be seeing more lefties now than he has over the rest of his career, and I don't think we need to go down the whole home-runs-and-fly-balls beaten path again. These things are anomalous, and going forward we should expect them to regress.

So that leaves us with the swinging strikes. I suppose you could see this as either a major or a minor change, depending on your perspective. It's true - most 34 year olds don't suddenly start missing bats like they did in their 20s. Washburn has generated 72 whiffs on the year, as opposed to the 61 we'd get from applying his '06-'08 average, and that may be statistically significant. But even if it does represent a step forward in terms of performance - and let it be said that I'm open to this possibility - that doesn't explain his sizeable hike in strikeouts and drop in walks. Washburn's K/BB has jumped from a three-year average of 1.8 to this year's 2.6, and I don't think you can make total sense of that with only a moderate increase in swinging strikes.

Jarrod Washburn has pitched pretty well this year through two months of work. His pitches have seemed a little sharper than usual, and in large part due to his dominance of lefties, he's riding a low ERA into the middle third of the season. However, while he may very well be a better pitcher now than he was during his first three years as a Mariner, there's little about his performance to date that makes me think it's going to keep up at this level. If and when the Mariners finally decide to sell, Erik Bedard's going to get a lot of attention, but Washburn'll be right there as a veteran with experience and an expiring contract, and Zduriencik should look into moving him quickly. Though his stock may not be as variable as Bedard's, its value may never be higher.

0 recs  |  Comment 25 comments |

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He seems to be the same against righties as ever

but he’s been striking out lefties like a crazy person. Something’s definitely in there.

by Jeff on Jun 2, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

SwStr% vs LHB
2009: 14.86
2007-8: 8.50

SwStr% vs RHB
2009: 4.37
2007-8: 4.90

Washburn’s missed 41 bats out of 276 pitches to lefties. He is flat out owning them this year and it’s a marked departure from previous years.

by Matthew on Jun 2, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's weird is how his changeup has gotten a lot of press

and yet there’s no improvement in righty SwS%, which is where you’d expect to see it.

Looks like his…breaking ball? has been terrific.

by Jeff on Jun 2, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The things I can do

Pretty even split between his cutter/fastball (19) and his offspeed stuff (22).

Of the offspeed pitches, based on spin rates, it looks like seven changeups and 15 slurvey things.

by Matthew on Jun 2, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I realllllllly want this firesale to get started ASAP so that I can switch off the emotional attatchment to this team for 2009.

All this waiting around [and losing] sucks. We aren’t going to the playoffs and even if we did we’d get owned because we can’t score runs consistently; burn the tree! Sell sell sell!

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jun 2, 2009 3:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You know what team has a substantial quantity of left-handed bats and would be at risk if one of their contenders acquired Washburn?

Philly. Ruben Amaro, you must trade your farm system to prevent the New York Mets from baffling your lineup.

by abender20 on Jun 2, 2009 3:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Just think WWPGD

Jose Lopez roxxorz my boxxorz.
51!

by joof on Jun 2, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can you think of a boneheaded trade that Gillick made as a Mariner GM?

I can’t really think of one. The big one would have been Griffey for Cameron, which came out alright, but trading for Al Martin didn’t cripple us.

by eponymous_coward on Jun 2, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He didn't make any trades.

That was one of his major criticisms from 2001-2003.

by Mariner John on Jun 2, 2009 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm more interested to see what the market is for the players we have.

I remember us anticipating that Beltre was gonna be moved during the offseason but it was actually Putz who was our hottest commodity.

Seems to me that’s going to dictate how quickly some of these guys get moved, unless we’re trying to sell these guys for the first available offer on the table.

by ThundaPC on Jun 2, 2009 4:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Besides the swinging strike rate

is it possible Washburn’s BABIP numbers are better because of his new sexy outfield? It’s at .282, and while that’s not way off norm, it’s the lowest he’s been since 2003. I’d like to see his BABIP on fly balls, because I can’t get that start in Minnesota out of my head where DTFT was born.

by calim on Jun 2, 2009 5:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

On fly balls and line drives

2009: .356
2007-8: .395

on fly balls only
2009: .131
2007-8: .179

by Matthew on Jun 2, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm no expert

but that seems significant.

by calim on Jun 2, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is the increase in swinging strike percentage...

related to the fact that he’s faced more lefty’s? In other words 2/3 changed factors are out of his control but is the 3rd factor (swinging strikes) artificially inflated due to the increase in lefty’s faced as well?

Let’s just trade the guy already!

by mwalter on Jun 2, 2009 5:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

supposedly he

has altered the locations he pitches to. If I remember correctly, he no longer throws the up-and-in “fastball” so much to lefties, going down-and-away (or something) instead.

I think Blowers and Dave talked about it. It has an unfortunate smell of the intangible about it, but I don’t see why changing locations couldn’t effectively remove the meatball from his repertoire and replace it with a mediocre fastball…

by losmarineros on Jun 3, 2009 12:44 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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