Much of what we do with Erik Bedard hinges on his Elias Ranking in this upcoming free agency.  If you think he will resign here, then this is a moot point.  If not, the question becomes whether he falls under the type A or type B free agent category.  This is important because if he is a type A, the M's get the top draft pick form the team that signs him, along with a sandwich pick between the first round.  If he is a type B, the M's only get a supplemental pick.

As a refresher, type A free agents fall within the top 20% of players at their position.  Type B free agents are between the top 20% and top 40% at their position.  The ranking takes the last two years of performance into account.  The rankings take into account games started, innings pitched, wins, win loss percentage, ERA, and strikeouts.  A player at the top of the category gets the maximum amount of points, decreasing on down to the player at the bottom getting zero.  For you Bedard fans, it is adjusted for time on the DL.  There are 14 teams in the AL giving us, in my guess, 80-90 qualified starting pitchers.  In order to be in the top 20%, he needs to be one of the 16-18 best starters in the league.

Derek at USSM did quite a bit of work on this, so I'll link and recap.  Looking at his last year, he had only 6 wins, but a 60% win percentage.  His strikeouts put him at 70th and ERA was at 3.67.  This year, he's 28th in IP, 4th in ERA, 14th in K's, and has 5 wins.  If you could duplicate this year, I would be he'd turn out as a type A.  The problem arises from the fact that it is a two year ranking.  His IP and wins from last year hurt him, along with the time spent hurt.  It appears, though, that the ranking prorates your time spent on the DL.

I may be way off base but 77 total starts throughout the season assuming 5 days between starts.  He made 15 starts last year, instead of his normal 28-30.  For simplicity, I'm going to say he made half the starts that he could have made.  So, then if it really is prorated, his adjusted strikeouts would be 144, his adjusted wins would be 12, adjusted IP would be 162.  His K's would put him at 20th in the league, his IP wouldn't be in the top 40, starts would be 24th, ERA is 22nd, wins is also 22nd.  Couple this all together and he would rank somewhere around 26th in the league.  I have no idea how the hell DL adjustment works for starting pitchers so I pulled these numbers out for simplicity.  Still, my best guess is he would rank somewhere in the high 20's to 30 just on last years stats alone..

As we know, though, it takes into account 2 years of statistics.  So, this year he has 11 starts, 65.2 IP, 65 K's, an ERA of 2.47, and win percentage of 71%.  Projecting this straight away, without any adjustments of advanced statistics, he is on pace for 28 starts, 167 IP, 13 wins, a .710 win percentage, and 167 K's.  This would rank him ~42nd in starts, 38th in IP, 14th in K's, 4th in ERA, and 11th in win percentage for this year alone.

Now, think of the top ~20 pitchers in the AL using these 5 categories.  If you think he can pitch himself into that group, then he may very well end up a type A.  Personally, I feel there is still alot of work to be done.  I'm not sure exactly how Elias treats DL time, which he spent a considerable amount of time on last year, I believe, but if it does prorate stats, then that should help him.  If you know how long he spent on the DL, you may be able to calculate it more accurately than me pulling educated guesses on the numbers.

I think we can eliminate keep him knowing he would be a type B free agent.  Then, the question becomes, do you keep him as a type A if we are sniffing contention in late July or do we try to unload him?  Think of it this way, he would probably command quite a haul on the trade market based on potential and past performance.  Even if he is a rent a player for someone, teams making a playoff run would put a premium on his arm, if healthy.  We're talking legit near majors ready prospects.  On the other hand, as a type A, we would get the top pick of the team that signs him, plus a sandwich pick.  As we know with the draft, it can sometimes be a crapshoot with prospect.  Guys may not pan out, especially with the sandwich pick.  In the trade market, we can pick and choose the deal that works best, based on the performance of the prospects we target and organizational need.

Would I love to make a playoff run and keep Bedard around? Yes, if he is a type A.  I do, however, think it would be more beneficial to trade him for prospects this summer.

Disclaimer: this was me researching Elias rankings and trying to throw together where he may project out to.  In no way is it a science and I was just giving a ballpark estimate.  Dave and Derek at USSM have done a better job than me, as linked above, but this is meant to start discussion on the issue.  If you want to give it a shot and project what he would need to pitch himself into Type A, feel free.