Since we're back sniffing .500 again, the playoffs discussions have come back into play.  I thought I'd revisit our playoff chances and see where we sit as of right now.

Through 59 games, we are at 29-30, sitting just below .500 and 4.5 games back of the Rangers.  Additionally, we are only one game back of the Angels, who are sitting at 29-28.  The question becomes do we have a shot at the playoffs, and what will it take to get there.  Obviously nobody is running away with this division and it is as week as we thought it would be.  Let's dig in.

First, I want to examine the other teams to see what their flaws are and if they will keep up the pace they are at, get better, or get worse.

Texas:

Texas has started off the first 58 games at 33-25, a record that was not expected by most.  The general consensus is that they will fall off come summertime.  Their weakness is still in their pitching staff.

Pitching:

Thus far, the Texas rotation is sitting at a TRA of 6.00 and a TRA* of 5.64.  Their bullpen has a TRA of  5.83, with a TRA+ 5.34.  In other words, they are who we thought they were.  Their pitching should in no way carry them through the season.

Hitting:

The strength of the Texas lineup.  As a team, their wOBA is sitting at .351.  They may not outpitch teams, but they are built to score runs.  Nearly all of their regulars are at or above a wOBA of .300.  The hitting part of their game probably won't go away.

Summary:

With a shakey pitching staff, the Rangers are going to have to hit the crap out of the ball to win games.  Relying on hitting, in my opinion, is a dangerous way to go about things.  At any time, their hitting could go cold, leaving them on shaky ground. They are 4-6 in their last 10 and have showed signs of cooling.

Anaheim:

The Angels started the season missing most of their full rotations to injuries, leaving a slow start to be expected.  The rotation is back now, but not performing as well as they were expected to be.  Santana has lost velocity, as noted by Jeff, Lackey hasn't ben a standout by any means, and Escobar found himself demoted to the bullpen.  Add in the injury to Vlad, and his lack of performance, and they've done quite well for themselves up until now.

Pitching:

The Angels pitching was predicted to be their strong point coming in.  It was assumed that when they were healthy they would be the team to beat.  The Angels pitching staff is healthy, but has not showed signs of being where everyone thought they would be.  As a rotation, they have a TRA of 4.52 and TRA* of 4.83.  Santana has had a dropoff, as mentioned, and Lackey isn't quite back to form from what I've seen.  Weaver, on the other hand, has been lights out with a TRA of 3.21, comparable to where Felix is.  In the pen, they have a TRA* of 5.01 and pRAA of -4.9.  They appear to miss having K-Rod as their closer, with Fuentes having a TRA that is almost two points higher than him.   Shields also hasn't been performing well in the setup role.  All in all, their pitching has been shakey as well.

Hitting:

Their hitting has been about average with a wOBA of .333.  Vlad has been out with an injury, but had seemed to regress quite a bit before that.  Torii Hunter is their bright spot with a wOBA of .409.

Mariners:

For what we are on paper, this start has been better that what could've been expected.  After getting off to a hot start, we cooled off very quickly, but have been picking it up recently.  The holes in the team, as has been noted, lie in the bullpen and with our hitting.  Our bullpen treads on shakey ground and our hitting, at many times, is non-existant.

Pitchers:

This seems to be our strength.  Our rotation has a TRA of 4.51.  Felix, when good, is killing it with a TRA of 3.17, with Bedard at 4.02.  We've been able to plug in Vargas and Olsen and putter along quite well in the last month.  The emergence of new Washburn has also been helpful.  Overall our rotation has been a strong point at many times.  The bullpen, on the other hand, is still cause for concern.  The pen's TRA is at 5.21.  Just from watching the pen, we all probably feel that they may not be as good as advertised.  It is shakey at times, downright scary at others, and yet surprising good sometimes as well.  All in all, I would call the pen inconsistent.

Hitting:

Not our strong point.  The lineup fails to produce, outside of Ichiro and Branyan, most of the time.  Branyan ihas been dead sexy with a wOBA of .435.  The team, as a whole, have a wOBA of .313, or well below average.  Our lineup is flat ugly on paper and is just about the same on the field.  While it looks bad now, it should be expected to improve by heading closer to what is projected soon.

Summary:

The team relies on pitching and continues to be frustrating at the plate.  The rotation can go out and allow 3 or less runs, yet still lose due to the lack of production from the lineup.  We are also prone to late game blowups by the bullpen, as we've all seen.  The fact that the team has played so many one run games, and won many of them, leads me to believe we've been quite lucky up until now and if we keep playing the way we are, our luck will run out.

Where do we go from here?

From the looks of it, we're still in this thing and should continue to be in this thing through the rest of the season.  Texas is all bat and not so much pitching.  We are the opposite.  The Angels are hanging around without major standouts in either.  With the rotation woes of the Angels and Rangers, we should be able to make it close.

I would not, however, like to see us become big buyers at the trading deadline.  Instead, I think we can solve some of our lineup troubles in house.  Saunders is kicking down the door of the big club and making a case to take one of the OF spots.  Moore may very well be seasoned enough to be the solution at catcher in the summer after a bit more seasoning.  Our middle infield, well we're just kind of stuck with that right now unless we can unload one or both onto a sucker team.  There really isn't any prospects for it from what I see in house.  Clement is kind of stuck due to the fact that we have a LH 1B, that is sexy, and a LH DH that probably won't be bench anytime soon.

The other issue I see is Erik Bedard.  If you think he will be a type A free agent or that he will resign here, then I have no problem keeping him around.  Derek at USSM, does not think he will be.  If neither of these are true, I really would like to unload him to get something out of it.  I guess it all depends on where we are standing around the trade deadline and whether he will be able to pitch himself into type A territory.

So, there's my take on it.  I didn't have time to go too far in depth but from what I see, we should be in the race, especially with our weak division.  What we should do if we are still in the race come two months from now remains to be seen.