Draft Recap
Yes, I know it's not over until tomorrow. However, I'm not going to have any clue at all about the guys coming in between rounds 31-50 (not that I have much a clue past 10, but I can pretend), and neither will you so let's just pretend it's all done and dusted because there'll be nothing interesting to talk about there anyway.
Overall
If you wanted pitching, it has not been a good couple of days. If you wanted a full restock of the system featuring switch-hitting/left-handed bats with power potential, good news! Seriously though, I don't understand why pitching was such a huge concern. Yes, we're going to have issues with the rotation next year. However, there was one person in the draft who'll be ready to fill in a starting spot in the bigs next year, and he was the only guy in the entire draft we were never going to have a chance with.
The Mariners played it pretty safe all along, favouring relatively polished bats. The big name, of course, is Dustin Ackley, and by taking him the Mariners guaranteed themselves a good draft. Along with Ackley, the M's picked up some solid college and high school bats (especially in Rich Poythress and Nick Franklin), but the pitching taken all have big question marks with blinking neon lights. This was a draft that they could not screw up and one with a budget, which mean leaning towards safe guys in the top few rounds (i.e. not Tanner Scheppers) and forcing a couple of overdrafts for signability. Still, I'm pleased with how things went, and my biggest disappointment was nothing to do with the Mariners, coming when the Twins took Kyle Gibson at #21. Would I have done something differently? Yes, in that I'd have picked Paxton at #33, but that's getting nit-picky. The front office knows what it's doing, and while I'm not blown away post-Ackley, it's hard to argue that they haven't had a good draft.
Get ready to read something along the lines of "Scouts have questioned his power, despite him hitting more homers in his junior year than in the previous two combined" fairly frequently.
#2: Dustin Ackley, CF (UNC) L/R
Ackley was the best position player and the second best prospect in the draft by a wide margin, as those in the running for the number two spot at the start of the amateur baseball campaign - namely UNC teammate Alex White and USC shortstop Grant Green - scuffled while Ackley put in a strong effort during his junior season. Ackley possesses an advanced feel for hitting and commands the strike zone well enough to force pitchers to throw him something he can drive. He's also fast enough to steal his share of bases. His power was a question coming into the season, and Ackley demonstrated that he can hit the ball out of college parks, hammering 22 home runs this season, up from 10 and 7 in his two seasons prior. It remains to be seen whether his newfound power translates to wood bats, but if it does Ackley would be a good bat at first base, his position during most of his college career due to arm troubles. Fortunately, that's not where he'll play in professional ball, as he'll be trialed out in centre field once he signs. His arm should be strong enough after Tommy John surgery to handle the position, and he showed off good range and instincts when he was showcased in centre during a late season series. Ackley's athletic enough to play positions like second as well, but shifting him to the middle infield will take time, delaying the arrival of his bat. Ackley needs a little more polish, but he'll be ready fairly soon. I've heard comps ranging from Darrin Erstad to a CF-playing Todd Helton(!). Look for him in 2011.
#27: Nick Franklin, SS (Lake Brantley High School, Florida) S/R
There were rumblings the day before the draft that Franklin was going to be our guy at #27, and passing on some of the available pitching (particularly Tanner Scheppers) to pick him up caused some consternation. Franklin was considered as a bit of an overdraft by most, but he has a lot of points in his favour. He's rangy and athletic with smooth actions and a strong arm at shortstop, and should stick there as a professional with the ability to be above average with a little bit of work on his feet and positioning. He's no Jiovanni Mier, but nor is he a Jeter out there. Switch-hitting Franklin has a good approach at the plate as sprays line drives to all fields with a smooth stroke, but like Ackley his power has been questioned. He did hit 10 home runs this year as a senior in high school, but the transition to wood will probably drop him down to a below-average power threat. He's not Emmanual Burriss, though, and he should hit enough balls hard to get his share of extra-base hits. Once intriguing comp I heard this morning was a switch hitting Michael Young who plays defence, and if that's what the Mariners saw in Franklin, it's no wonder they drafted him. And for those who are comparing Franklin's downside to Willie Bloomquist, what's a switch hitting Bloomquist with better defence at shortstop? A three win player. He's a way off, but he's a very solid pick at #27: the Mariners signed him because he was at the top of their board for this pick. However, since he was more of a consensus supplemental/second guy than a first rounder, he'll probably sign quickly and below slot.
#33: Steven Baron, C (Ferguson High School, Florida) R/R
Between Ackley at #2 and Baron at #33, the Mariners had most of their first round selection locked down weeks before June 9th. Baron was drafted a couple of rounds ahead of where the consensus had him, and the Mariners apparently took him primarily for budget reasons, having worked out a pre-draft agreement on his signing bonus for below slot at #33. The gap between this pick and his position in the mocks isn't as big as it first appears, though - some of that difference was Baron being considered a tough sign due to Duke's heavy recruitment efforts (he was supposed to be the centrepiece of their incoming class). As a player, Baron's calling card is his defence. For an organisation that puts a heavy premium on catcher defence, it's no wonder they love him. He's not in the Rob Johnson school of catchers who apparently call a good game but look terrible at the things fan can actually see, far from it. Baron moves behind the plate well, does a good job getting behind balls in the dirt and has good footwork with a standout arm - he's genuinely an excellent defender behind the dish. His bat, however, is questionable. Though Baron got into better shape this year and played fairly well because of it, his swing has enough holes that he's unlikely to ever hit for much contact, although he should have average power. His performance at the showcase in Sebring led some to conclude that there's more to his bat than meets the eye, however, so it's not like Baron's totally without upside. I don't like the pick, but I understand where it's coming from, and if I had the opposite stance on catcher defence I'd probably like it.
#51: Rich Poythress, 1B (Georgia) R/R
Here we go. Injury-plagued freshman year aside, Poythress has been terrorising college pitchers since he stepped onto the diamond at Georgia, hitting for a good average while collecting home runs in bunches (15 last year, 25 this year). He's probably the best power hitter in the college ranks, and may rank second only to Dustin Ackley as an overall hitter. Unlike the Richie Sexsons of the world, Poythress doesn't sacrifice contact for a long, powerful swing. Instead, he works the count and when he gets a pitch to hit makes sure to hit it on the button, letting his strength do the rest. The power will almost certainly translate to the professional level, and although Safeco Field tends to sap right-handed power hitters, Poythress has a habit of hitting bombs to right and centre fields just as often as to left. He's also a good bet to maintain a reasonable average at more advanced levels, and his power combined with solid plate discipline will lead him to his fair share of walks. Poythress was trialed extensively at third base, but he's not agile enough to man the position and his destiny lies as a first baseman, where he should be average-slightly above. He was also expected to be a late first-round guy. Getting him here was a steal for the Mariners, and saving money on #27 and #33 will let them sign him without any budget worries. "A poor man's Matt LaPorta" was one of the many things I heard about Poythress on draft day, which I'm more than pleased with. I love this pick.
#82: Kyle Seager, 2B (UNC) L/R
Seager may never hit too many home runs in the majors, but he profiles as a line drive gap hitter in the mould of Jeff Cirrillo before he came to Seattle and went crazy. He's also able to swing the stick left-handed. Noticing a pattern yet? Seager's got a good idea of what he's doing at the plate and has a pretty swing, but as a leftie it's too level to do much real damage, especially with a wood bat. He also lacks the wheels to turn singles into extra-base hits, but despite all this he got his fair share of doubles in college as Dustin Ackley's teammate. Defensively, he's pretty agile in the field; enough to make him an average second baseman as a professional. Don't expect big things from Seager, though. He doesn't have the tools for a breakout, and at this point he is what he is. He's a useful player, tends to play above his tools, and reasonably close to the majors, but you're not going to get an All-Star out of him. Of course, considering what we currently have as middle infielders, that looks pretty nice.
#113: James Jones, OF (Long Island) L/L
Most teams were high on Jones as a left-handed pitcher at the end of last season, but he had a catastrophic junior year which saw him drop out of consideration for the first 70 picks. Lost in all of this was the fact that he was still a pretty good, if unpolished, left-handed bat with some promising power potential and good plate discipline. Defensively, he's fast and has a great arm (he touched 95 as a pitcher in seasons prior), and he could probably work his way to being a reasonable centre fielder with effort and good coaching. The bat is raw enough that he probably languishes in the minor leagues and never amounts to much, but the upside is enough to justify a fourth-round pick. Best case scenario is that he makes us forget about another black outfielder named Jones, and worst case is that we forget this pick ever happened. After making safe pick after safe pick on day one, this is where the Mariners start to roll the dice.
#143: Tyler Blandford, RHP (Oklahoma
Blandford could be a scout's dream. He's got a pitcher's frame and throw great hit, sitting in the mid 90s with the fastball and showing a wicked slider that can make hitters look stupid. He's also got the makings of a good changeup. With this kind of stuff, Blandford should have been an easy first rounder, and he would have been if he had any semblance of command whatsoever. His stuff plays down because he has no idea where the ball is going, leading to a lot of walks and more than a few rockets coming off fastballs down the middle. When his pitches are near the zone, they get swung at and missed a lot, and he still gets more strikeouts than walks, but walking 45 guys in less than 80 innings in college isn't going to cut it as a professional. I had assumed going into the draft that the team taking him would have seen something correctable in his delivery, so the Mariners probably think they can fix him. The minor leagues are littered with guys with stuff but no command, and not many of them ever figure things out, so it's unlikely that you'll ever see Blandford in a Mariners uniform. On the off chance he ever learns to throw that ball at the mitt, we suddenly have a top of the rotation pitcher or a shutdown closer with our fifth round pick, which would be sweet. There's really no middle road here though - this is a pure boom and bust pick.
#173: Shaver Hansen, 3B (Baylor) S/R
What more could you ask than a switch hitting infielder with some serious pop? Well, you could ask for one with power scouts think will translate to wooden bats and one with a better arm and speed... but don't be greedy. This is the sixth round. Although his numbers don't show it (apparently he decided to sacrifice some command of the strike zone in favour of swinging from the heels this year) he has a reasonable eye and he's another one of our draft picks whose power spiked this season after being questioned last summer. Hansen's swing generates questions from scouts wondering how well it'll work with a wood bat, but he put up a good showing in the Cape Cod League last summer, which alleviate those doubts a fraction. He's got the feet and quickness for third base but his arm may not be good enough for the position in the majors - second base was sounding more like the likely destination for him until the Mariners announced him at third. Overall, I really like this pick. Questions of how he'll transition to wood bats are completely valid, but if he does Hansen has big upside with the bat. Did I mention he switch hits?
#203: Brian Moran, LHP (UNC)
Remember everything I wrote about Blandford (if you don't, scroll up two paragraphs)? Invert it and what do you get? A left handed pitcher with no stuff, crazy command, and the weird ability to get people out despite that. Moran's got a mid-80s fastball that he can throw wherever he damn well pleases, but relies on a delivery which sees his throwing arm hiding behind his body for way longer than normal, which I imagine makes the pitch come at the hitter much quicker than the pure velocity suggests. He's got nothing interesting apart from that, flashing a fringy breaking ball that comes and goes as well as a below average changeup. Deceptive bullpen lefties are not exactly a standard player type in the major leagues, so it's questionable whether the same strategy will work in the majors. On the other hand, he was second out all of college pitchers in FIP this year, and first in the non-minor-deity category while striking out 88 in 64 innings against 8 walks. I'm pretty sure that the Mariners spent so much time following Dustin Ackley around that they scouted his teammates more than everyone else in the country, hence a third of our top nine picks hailing from UNC.
Another fun tidbit: Moran is B.J. Surhoff's nephew. He also looks amazing.
#233: Jimmy Gilheeney, LHP (North Carolina State)
Not content with drafting Ackley's teammates to help him sign, the Mariners injected some rivalry in here by drafting NC State's Friday starter. Safeco Field is a place where fringy lefties like Jason Vargas and Garrett Olson can survive, and Gilheeney's upside is that sort of pitcher. However, it's hard to see much in the way of a downside. His command is sharp, his big loopy curveball is good, and his changeup is good with the potential for more. Sitting in the mid-high 80s with the fastball is pretty common for pitchers of this breed, but being that restricted in velocity makes for a pick with no room for growth. If the fastball is more 88 than 86, we might see him in the bigs someday as a real starter, otherwise he's one of those emergency guys that make you wish Brandon Morrow would hurry his ass up and get off the DL.
#263: Trevor Coleman, C (Missouri) S/R
Another switch hitter, this time a catcher. Defensively, think Rob Johnson. Offensively, Coleman is all over the place. He had a great summer performance with wood at the Cape, leading many to believe he'd be a first day pick, but upon his return to college he forgot how to hit and how to catch. When he's on, he's got a long swing with pop, although he swings and misses too often for comfort. He's already shown that his power will translate to wood bats, so that's a question answered, but his massive inconsistency in all assets of the game is a problem - hence the 9th round selection. At his best Coleman is an offence-first, switch hitting catcher, so he has the potential to be a real asset and a steal in the 9th round. But banking on best case scenarios is a good way to get burned, so don't expect too much out of him. If the bat doesn't settle he's Rene Rivera from two sides of the plate rather than just one. Decent risk here nonetheless.
#293: Vincent Catricala, 3B (Hawaii) R/R
More junior-year power spikes. With Ackley, Hanson, Franklin, and now Catricala, the Mariners have really loaded up on guys who've hit a tonne more home runs this season than anyone reasonably expected. For Catricala, his career home run total moved up to 20 this year after a summer of strength training, which is pretty impressive considering that this time last year it had reached the lofty pinnacle of 7. His ability to hit for average has never been in doubt, and his discipline improved with his power - Catricala drew more walks in 2009 than he did in 2007 and 2008 combined. His swing will probably hold up against more advanced competition, as long as they don't throw him too many changeups (or he adjusts to hitting said pitch). Defence at third is not his strong suit - he has no standout tools for a third baseman and may not stick there. For a 10th rounder, though, we got a reasonably polished bat, although he isn't a great fit for Safeco.
#323: Tim Morris, 1B (St. John's) L/L
Continuing the overriding theme of the draft, Morris is a left-handed bat who underwent a big power surge last year, hitting 12 homers to go along with a good average and acceptable discipline. He's also an average defender at first, which is a plus for fans who've recently undergone three-odd years of the Richie Sexson experience. He's had his struggles in college, though, as evidenced by his .059/.158/.059 line as a freshman in Clemson, which may indicate he has trouble with advanced competition. Despite the surge, his power is a question, but if he consolidates his gains he might end up as a big league starter. It's an unlikely bet, though, and that's why he's an 11th rounder.
#353: Andrew Carraway, RHP (Virginia)
Going with the command/no stuff pitchers, Carraway is the right-handed equivalent of 8th-rounder Gilheeney, meaning that his changeup is worse and he throws a little bit harder. His repertoire features a 90-ish fastball, good curve, slider, and a change. He doesn't strike out many, and he doesn't have great stuff, but he doesn't walk guys or make mistakes. He knows how to pitch, as cliched as that is, but I don't really like taking college starters who already are all that they can be. Upside? Chris Jakubauskas. Downside? Probably a slightly worse Chris Jakubauskas. Not much to see here.
#383: Matt Cerione, OF (Georgia) L/L
Tools tools tools. Tools tools tools. Tools tools tools. Cerione has so many tools that they may well have replaced his brain with a power saw at birth, which would explain why he's got a tonne of makeup issues and thinks showboating is more important than playing solid baseball. He also can't hit worth a damn despite being blessed with a quick bat and good power, mainly because his idea of a plate appearance is to swing from the heels at everything. He's probably not going to amount to much, but every now and then one of the tools picks turns good and everyone talks about what a steal it was to take them in the whatever round, and if that happens here then Cerione is a steal in the thirteenth. Since it won't, you can forget his name unless he does something stupid and it becomes a news story around the minors. Did I mention he's got good tools? And, of course, he's left handed.
#413: Adam Nelubowich, 3B/OF (Vauxhall High School, Edmonton) L/R
Our first Canadian of the draft, Nelubowich was ranked as the country's top position player this year, albeit in one of the poorest draft classes our frigid neighbors have produced recently. In showcases against American teams, Nelubowich held his own with a wood bat and drew comparisons to our very own Michael Saunders, although the chances of development along those lines are slim. I suspect any white Canadian outfielder with any pop at all with be compared to Saunders for the foreseeable future. Also he's left handed, so that's a surprise.
Rest of draft
At this point I stop really having a clue about the names involved, so I'll just forward y'all on to the MLB draft tracker and save myself some writing.
7 recs |
112 comments
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Comments
So with Ackley likely to make the jump to the big leagues within the next 2-3 seasons,
what happens to Gutierrez if Saunders and Ichiro are at the corners?
by Wilder. on Jun 10, 2009 9:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Someone gets traded
It’s nothing to worry about just yet though
by Graham on Jun 10, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does Ackley have a realistic shot at being able to play second base, or was that just pre-draft fluffing from his coach?
I know CF is the more valuable position but another possibility is playing Ackley at 2B if true and keep Guti in CF.
by OlSalty on Jun 11, 2009 1:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Methinks...
…by the time Ackley gets up to speed on 2nd base, Guti is going to be going into his decline at CF, and you’d want to convert him back.
Let’s not waste time.
by rtang on Jun 11, 2009 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty happy with the draft, and if a few of those late round picks surprise us it could turn out to be a really great one
Thanks for doing this write up, I didn’t really know much about the day 2 picks.
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed
by gregrabble on Jun 10, 2009 9:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of which, does anyone know how well GMZ did with the Brewers' later (after top 100) picks?
by lailaihei on Jun 10, 2009 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They did fine. It's always a crapshoot, but
they got Michael Brantley (Mickey Brantley’s son! My god I feel old) at #205, and he had a solid year in AA before being part of the Sabathia trade.
The most notable is probably Corey Hart who went #321 in 2000. Manny Parra was #778 (!) in 2001.
Bill Hall was #176, but I’m not quite sure when Z started working on the drafts for them….
Given the fact that they got Michael Brantley, Cutter Dykstra (son of Lenny), the nephew of BJ Surhoff Brian Maron, and the brother of NFL player Lamar Thomas and cousin of ex-NBA player Jason Williams in Eric Thomas, it would seem that athletic bloodlines are important to GMZ/McNamara…. apropos of nothing, just a weird trend.
by marc w on Jun 11, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prince Fielder!
Oh, you said athletic bloodlines.
by patsfan on Jun 11, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Overall Im fine with the draft. However, I would have liked to have seen
at least one more real “core” potential guy added. With three of the top 33 picks, would have like to have gotten another bat or arm that could project as better than league average down the road.
Of course nothing is a given in the MLB draft, but a guy with some higher upside at #27 and/or #33 would have made me happy. A guy like a Scheppers, or Paxton, or Davidson. A guy that if he reached his potential could be a foundation player for us. A guy who projected at better than league average.
I just don’t see that with our first day picks.
Poythress has the bat to be better than league average, but he can’t run or play a lick of defense. Is he going to hit enough to be more than a 2 WAR guy in the bigs, at the DH position?
I don’t think Franklin’s track record or the scouting reports show that 1)He’s a lock to stay at SS or 2)Can hit enough to be anything of value if he’s moved off the position.
I don’t know. He’s a max 2 WAR type in my opinion, and that’s if everything goes right.
That actually sounds like the 07/08 Michael Young. Is that a core or foundation player?
Baron, I don’t think anybody believes he becomes a foundation type player.
So while I think most these Day 1 guys have a chance to contribute and be peripheral players on a winning team, I’m still left wondering when exactly we’re going to get the group of guys who can be core type that can fill the middle of our order and contribute above league average performence at their given position.
I think there were some of those guys that we choose to pass on in favor of more signable/cheaper talent.
by Rudy4three on Jun 10, 2009 9:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, knowing how much work Graham puts into this stuff before posting anything about it,
including knowing the type, and specific identity, of people that Graham talks to (for instance, Baseball America scouts as one example), I would go first with the assumption that Graham is not just pulling shit out of his ass and posting on the web so that he can garner traffic or whatever.
by Matthew on Jun 10, 2009 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am just stating my opinion. What did I say that would question Graham's work?
Are you referring to the last line?
I don’t think there is any doubt Baron was overdrafted due to signability, and I’m unsure about Franklin. Maybe he was the highest guy on their board, but maybe their board didn’t include guys who would demand much higher than slot.
by Rudy4three on Jun 10, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to go all appeal to authority fallacy or anything
but I’m guessing the dudes with the tremendously good record as professional baseball scouts are kind of good at their job. They might have done some things we don’t agree with, but I’m going to go ahead and assume that talent, upside and signability were taken into consideration.
And really, the over analysis and assumption of understanding of the team’s finances is just weak.
by acblue on Jun 11, 2009 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm inclined to think that your opinion of Franklin's upside stems solely from the fast that we didn't take a riskier player like Scheppers
Also, why are you complaining about Davidson when he’s worse at everything than Rich Poythress? Who is probably a decent glove at first.
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's more that I don't see him to project as an above average defensive SS.
I don’t see a ton of upside with him. Not the upside of a Stassi, Davidson, Scheppers, Paxton, Brothers, etc..
And it isn’t as if he’s a college SS. He still bring a lot of risk in that he’s a prep kid.
I just think when you break down the risk/reward, there were players I preferred that carried similar risk, but significantly more reward.
I don’t hate the pick or the player. Just preferred other ones.
by Rudy4three on Jun 11, 2009 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fact that you can say that combined with actually wanting a Scheppers pick says that your risk/reward radar is way off
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Scheppers reward is a #1 starter with dominating stuff. His risk is greater
than a prep SS, but I see a significantly greater reward if he pans out.
by Rudy4three on Jun 11, 2009 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see no greater reward than a competent fielding SS
Who can hit from both sides of the plate with proficiency. Starting pitching is far easier to find than that.
by Sec 108 on Jun 11, 2009 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Baron has a chance to be a foundation-type player
given good coaching and a good work ethic on his part — and, of course, him actually signing. If he actually reneges on the pre-draft deal and isn’t just posturing in the paper, I will be seriously irritated.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 11, 2009 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget
It’s hard to find more than one “foundation” player in one draft. It’s been done. Just getting Ackley is a huge deal.
And don’t forget that Carlos Triunfel is a foundational player / middle-of-the-order type, and he’s younger than Ackley.
Combined with Carp, that’s a nice trio of young hitters. I’m thinking one of those three will be hitting third on the next great Mariners team.
If a couple of the fringier guys pop, then voila.
…Speaking of that, God I wish Balentien would be good sometime soon. That would solve a lot of problems I feel.
by Pete_ on Jun 11, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saunders is better than Balentien in every way right now
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
But doesn’t Balentien’s power potential make him a better player if he actually develops?
Or does Saunders’ fielding range even that out?
I just see the ease with which Balentien gets his power and I drool… I guess it will just never happen.
by Pete_ on Jun 11, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's one thing to have power.
It’s another thing to be able to properly use it. One home run in 115 plate appearances for Wlad so far. Could he develop into a better hitter? Probably. But he doesn’t fit with this organization, never has.
by Wilder. on Jun 11, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For my part
what I’m really looking forward to is an OF composed of three of Gutierrez, Saunders, Ackley and Ichiro. No question, when Wlad hits the ball on the screws, it jumps up and moves, but the rest of his game just isn’t there.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 11, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i am by no means an expert at talent evaluation.
But what we needed more than anything was to solidify our middle infield and get some left handed bats and we did just that.
Thug Life
by Slow Country on Jun 10, 2009 10:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So Moran has pitched out of bullpen throughout college?
by DAMellen on Jun 10, 2009 10:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I appreciate the efforts here and at USSM.
My internet connection has been a mess for a month now and I relied heavily on these two sites to keep up with the Mariners and the draft.
Poythress is easily my favorite pick. Watching the Gators deal with him is something I would rather not experience again…even if Florida has their own monster.
by Slica on Jun 10, 2009 11:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Any idea on how many of these players we will sign?
by Wilder. on Jun 10, 2009 11:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You were a fucking champion with this stuff G.
Amazing job.
by acblue on Jun 11, 2009 12:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Fourth'd.
Great work, G!
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jun 11, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was pretty much the only comment I was going to make in this thread
Hell of a job Graham, and thank you
I want to poop at your house - Thingray
by tootthekazoo on Jun 11, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baron
Have you guys read that Baron is now reportedly not a guarantee to sign and that he is asking for $1.3 million or he says he will go to Duke instead. Wow. Not only did we overdraft the guy, but now he’s backing out of what was allegedly an already agreed upon price. I’m sure we’ll probably end up signing him, but I actually hope we don’t and simply acquire the pick for next year where we can actually draft someone that isn’t in line to be a back-up player with the #33 overall pick. I realize that Baron was sortof a necessary evil in order to stay under budget, but if he’s going to cost real #33 slot money, he’s simply not worth our time. Send him to Duke along with the rest of the jerks in the world and let him get beat up by my Tarheels for a few years :)
by Bodhizefa on Jun 11, 2009 5:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There's nothing wrong with the #34 overall pick in 2010.
It’s clear that the team only drafted Baron there due to his perceived signability, and it’s also clear that GMZ doesn’t enjoy playing games with draftees. If Baron is going to pull this, the Mariners’ FO may as well cease negotiations.
by katal on Jun 11, 2009 6:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No redoes of picks in the supplemental rounds
so they have to sign him because they are not getting pick #34b in the 2010 draft
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Jun 11, 2009 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, they could always just not sign him and move that $1.3M to the international free agency ring
I’m still not sure that that number is real but enh.
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah they could just not sign him
and roll that money into signing any of the 31-50 guys that are normally high profile kids that area a hard lock to college…
I don’t know is the M’s have 2 separate scouting systems and budgets for Intentional and US scouting and dignings or not. Most teams do though, Texas I know combined the 2 to give them a better advantage on picking up those throw in LA kids at the back end of deals….
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Jun 11, 2009 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They have seperate budgets but I don't imagine that they're completely inflexible
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remeber when I was talking about Purke and Texas yesterday.....
Got this from LSB
Earlier this morning, I was listening to Houston Chronicle columnist Richard Justice on the radio…he was praising the job Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels have done in turning around the Rangers, both on the baseball side and on the business side…
Anyway, he was discussing Houston high schooler Matt Purke, who was drafted by the Rangers…he was talking about how Purke had scared a lot of teams off with his bonus demands. Justice said that he thought that Purke’s bonus demands were a ploy to get him to drop — not to the Yankees, like many people thought, but to the Rangers. He said Purke grew up a Rangers fan and really wanted to pitch for Nolan Ryan, and thus Justice thinks the price Purke wants to sign with the Rangers is a lot less than the price to sign with any other team.
Damn. I really hate these head games…
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Jun 11, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want hard slotting so badly
Not that I’m begrudging you guys Purke but the fact that this sort of thing happens undermines the whole idea of the draft
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree
even though it has been helping Texas the last 2 years..
It pisses me off more because how much it hurts the smaller revenue teams. If the O’s would select off of BPA the AL East would be that much harder….
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Jun 11, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Miami Herald.
Here.
Duke raised their scholarship offer, and Baron is suddenly asking for $1.3-1.4 million.
by katal on Jun 11, 2009 7:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a really odd article
Nowhere does it have Baron talking about his asking price, it just flat out states it in the body of the text. Also, if Baron had a pre-draft agreement worked out with the M’s, how was he ‘all set to go to Duke before the draft’?
Treat it as smoke for now, I guess.
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For someone who worked out a pre-draft agreement with Seattle
I was taken aback by how surprised he says he was to be drafted at number 33.
by katal on Jun 11, 2009 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weird all around
I was expecting him to sign quickly and if he doesn’t I’m genuinely angry (I don’t think we get comp picks for failing to sign supplemental rounders, which is probably why Scheppers dropped to the second round proper).
At least Franklin’s sounding like an easy sign.
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, they get comp picks for second rounders but not supplemental firsts?
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can you up a scholarship offer?
Aren’t baseball scholarships full ride?
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on how good you are.
Division 1 schools get something like 12 full scholarships to split up over their full roster, so they have to break them up.
by Teej on Jun 11, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You'd imagine a guy described as "the jewel" of Duke's recruiting class would be earmarked for one of those scholarships
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps.
But spreading 11.7 scholarships over 25-30 dudes is pretty tough, I imagine. And giving a full one to a kid who’s never played might piss off the rest of the team.
For trivia’s sake, here are the sports in which a scholarship means a full ride in D-1:
football
men’s basketball
women’s basketball
women’s volleyball
women’s tennis
women’s gymnastics
by Teej on Jun 11, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to guess this is a "yay Title IX!" moment
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup.
Football gets 80 full scholarships per year, I think, so that leaves the rest of the men’s sports kinda hosed.
by Teej on Jun 11, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which would seem to be a choice made by the Athletic Dept, wouldn't it?
Do they really need 80 scholarships?
by msb on Jun 11, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if an athletic department can reassign scholarships between sports.
As to whether football needs 85, I’d have to say it doesn’t appear so.
by Teej on Jun 11, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know the first thing about college football
but it seems to me that any team, even a top team, would only need about 44 scholarships max – 22 for two offensive teams and 22 for two defensive teams. Keep the roster sizes the same as they are now, whatever that is, but why reward a kid who is just on the practice squad and never sees a minute of actual game action with a full ride? Maybe round it up to 50 for placekickers and punters or something.
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on Jun 11, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with football is that guys get hurt, and get hurt a lot
it’s not uncommon for teams to run a fifth or sixth-string guy out there by the end of the season, and convincing guys to walk on is a lot harder than giving them scholarships.
Of course, reducing the number of scholarships would open up a lot of decent players who sit on the bench at OU/Texas/OJ Simpson’s alma mater to go play for smaller schools and would help bring more competitive balance to CFB.
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Injuries are definitely a concern
Still, somewhere in the 60 range seems reasonable fair to me, considering they’re all full rides. Or let the program split them up, so if you’re a third-string guy or whatever, you get a partial scholarship, to be made full if you make second string or something like that.
It just kind of sucks to see schools cancel men’s sports (or give out tiny scholarships) because of football and Title IX.
by Teej on Jun 11, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was wondering the same thing.
Maybe he gets to live in a sorority house of his choice.
by Wilder. on Jun 11, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fuzz would be the one to ask about this but from my conversations with him is that some athletes get better scholarships than others
Some are full ride, some of them split the cost, some are only for a few years and some are even just to pay for books.
by Robert on Jun 11, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
Why do you think USC sucks ass in baseball now? Because of Title IX and being a private school they can’t offer full rides in baseball anymore. Most of the talent they recruit goes to state schools that either offer more money/or are cheaper or just go to the pros.
Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"
by bluemax on Jun 11, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In that case we save even more money.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Jun 11, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tops.
Incredible analysis over the last few days, Graham. I’m not sure how you managed, but you outdid yourself.
by katal on Jun 11, 2009 6:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Graham has clutchness.
Or clutchiness, or however you want to put that. Remember, blogging isn’t about talent, it’s a test of character, and determination, and will, and plain old testitudinal fortitude, and Graham has that. He has the eye of the tiger.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 11, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reading what you've written actually helps me be excited about the draft
It’s tough in baseball knowing you probably won’t see the guys for a few years, but thanks for all the analysis Graham.
by rlintott on Jun 11, 2009 7:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Another focus of the draft...... relievers.
Just sort of interesting.
Moran pitched out of the ‘pen, then in later rounds you’ve got Drew Hayes from Vanderbilt, Chris Sorce of Troy and Anthony Vasquez of USC. This isn’t terrible, as they’ve got more of a chance at getting something out of these late round picks.
If that sounds like the team played it safe, it’s counterbalanced by the fact that there are a few high risk/high reward guys littered throughout. No, they’re not Scheppers, but I like the mix. Blandford is the headliner here, but Hayes, Eric Thomas, and even Vasquez may qualify. Jones and to a lesser extent Franklin fit the bill for risky (but potentially valuable) bats.
by marc w on Jun 11, 2009 9:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I really like the focus on power spikes to be honest
Yeah, some of them are just noise, but guys whose power has been questioned and then turn it around for their last amateur year seem like pretty good picks to roll the dice on. Ackley, Franklin, all the way down, that’s the sort of bat we picked up.
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like it too, though I wonder if we'd see it in another light if we didn't like the FO.
I think it’s a fine draft class, and I think they get more out of it than the last few Fontaine draft classes. We’ll see.
It’ll be interesting to see where Hansen ends up playing…. apparently his arm strength isn’t top notch. Could be a good competitor for Seager at 2b.
by marc w on Jun 11, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trust shapes perspective, no question
But there’s good reason for that.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 11, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It sounds like Locker isn't going any where but might end up in a situation similar to where Drew Henson was a few years back
by Robert on Jun 11, 2009 9:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
God dammit now I'm pissed off we didn't draft him
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well we have Joe Montana's son now.
by Taylor H on Jun 11, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Husky fans are the only ones excited for this kid
Even the recruiting services aren’t buying into his name hype.
Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"
by bluemax on Jun 11, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given that he got offers from all over the place
including Ohio State, Notre Dame, and half the SEC (LSU, Alabama, Georgia), I’d say your assertion is a little overstated.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 11, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More on Franklin, from Conor Glassey at BA
by Graham on Jun 11, 2009 10:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like this kid.
Franklin didn’t beat around the bush. He said he’s ready to play as soon ASAP.
“Right now, it’s all about getting signed and going out there to play as soon as possible,” he said. “That’s one of the big things in my life and one of my biggest goals in life is to go play pro baseball.”
by Decatur on Jun 11, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's one of the main reasons we picked him, so it's not that big of a surprise.
by lailaihei on Jun 11, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he can get 2 1/2 months in rookie ball and Everett this year, I'd love to see him in Clinton to start 2010 and then jump up to High Desert later that year, if he can handle it.
Then he’s got a shot to be our starting SS in 2012, at age 21. That’s probably a bit optimistic, but maybe he’s a fast learner. I have to say, his scouting report (average across the board) while being able to stick at short reminds me of a switch hitting JJ Hardy type – with a little bit better speed and a little bit less power. Plus, Hardy was drafted 56th overall, while Franklin was ranked by BA to be a 45thish among the top 100 players – so they seem, on the surface at least, to have been similarly regard by scouts at the time.
Here’s the Cube on Hardy, for what it’s worth
Scouting Report
Power: 71
Speed: 17
Contact: 80
Patience: 41
by Decatur on Jun 11, 2009 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
...
Yeah: BA had Hardy ranked as the 89th best prospect in the 2001 draft class
89. J.J. Hardy, ss/rhp Sabino HS Tucson, Ariz. 18 R-R 6-2 175
And guess what (from BA’s 2001 scouting report on Hardy):
His own preference is to be a position player. His tools are average to slightly above-average across the board. He has been clocked at 6.5 seconds in the 60-yard dash and at 89-92 mph off the mound.
And Nick Franklin is supposed to be average across the board, skinny dude, supposed to stick at short – I can see the parallels!
by Decatur on Jun 11, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow--ready to play not just ASAP, but *as soon* ASAP.
That takes real dedication.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 11, 2009 10:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Reply fail . . .
That was of course about Franklin (at some point, my brain will stop supplying “Ryan,” right?), and Decatur’s quote.
by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 11, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Graham, I would just like to say thank you sir. I neither have the time nor the resources to go through all this stuff.
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
by InSpokane on Jun 11, 2009 10:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff Graham.
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on Jun 11, 2009 3:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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