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Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 24-27
Baltimore: 23-28

SUMMARY

MARINERS ORIOLES EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-44.4 (29th) 3.1 (15th) BAL
FIELDING (UZR)
10.7 (7th) -13.0 (26th) SEA
ROTATION (pRAA)
12.8 (9th) -18.3 (27th) SEA
BULLPEN (pRAA)
-13.2 (27th) 0.6 (14th) BAL
OVERALL(RAA)
-34.1 -27.6 Baltimore







So close. So close to the sweep that would have meant quite a bit in the short run.

It is funny how things work. If you switch around games two and three, how many people are ecstatic to leave Anaheim with a series win instead of devastated without the series sweep?

It is easy, because of our collective past history, to hone in on the loss last night and go back to wallowing. And it was a tough loss - of that there is no doubt. Still though, there were a lot of positives to take away from it, mostly on the offensive side in the early going. I do not think I need to re-hash them, as Jeff already has better than I can.

Still, I thought about the negativism that inevitably follows a disgusting loss like yesterday's and that it seems so easy to fall back into the routine of expecting the worst at all times. It is easy to forget at times that this is a new team, a new management group. They're not perfect, but they are quite good and it is going to take some time to turn the ship fully around. In the meantime, we get to watch Ichiro Suzuki nearly everyday. We get to watch Russell Branyan prove to everyone, including himself, that he belongs at this level.

Once a week we get to watch a 23-year-old Venezuelan display talent that none of has ever seen up close before. Sure, we yell at him a lot. We want him to get better. We sense that he can be better; that he can be not just the best talent that we have ever seen, but the best period. But that should not stop us from enjoying what we have while we have it, because for as slow as time seems sometimes, it is relentless and sooner than you will perhaps like, he'll be gone.

Felix may never reach the level that we wish for him. For those of us who had the privilege, Felix Day may never eclipse what it was like the night of a Randy Johnson start in his prime. And it looks like we are not going to get to pass that potential torch onto Stephen Strasburg, but a little over a year ago nobody here knew of Strasburg. The landscape changes so inconceivably quickly that it is easy to get sucked into the now, and to forget to sometimes just sit back and just appreciate how talented these people are. Who knows how many more Erik Bedard starts we will get to see in Seattle? How many more games will Adrian Beltre be wearing Seattle blue?

Baseball is a glorious sport. The Mariners have put me through hell and back in the 18-odd years that I have been a fan. But through it all, the purity of just how great baseball is remains and I believe that is what draws us all here in the first place. Nothing, not even Kendry Morales' magic marker goatee, can take that away unless you let them.

Morales_medium

 

GAMES

Game 1: Jarrod Wasburn* vs. Rich Hill*
Game 2: Erik Bedard* vs. David Hernandez
Game 3: Jason Vargas* vs. TBA

Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. Let us just get that out of the way now.

The Mariners are tossing out three lefties at the Orioles, a team that shows a pretty big platoon split with a .797 OPS against RHPs and just a .714 OPS against LHPs. For Washburn, who has been feasting on left handed hitters, the Orioles look like a good match up. Neutralize Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott and get Brian Roberts to bat from his worst side, and you have taken most of the sting out of Baltimore. Adam Jones might destroy him though, but he'll have to deal with Safeco Field hampering him from the right side.

Honestly, we're running four lefties out of the rotation right now, and Ryan Rowland-Smith looks about a week away from being ready to re-join the team. With Safeco's natural death to right handed hitters, stacking your rotation with lefties is a great way to take advantage of your home park from a run prevention side. It will be interesting to see how this team juggles the return of RRS and possibly Carlos Silva, who with Chris Jakubauskas give the team eight legit starting pitchers (though six of them are back end talent). I am not yet ready to fully concede the 2009 season, but I do think Zduriencik can get started on trades if he does it carefully. Jarrod Washburn can go and not really affect us.

Rich Hill is our first opponent. Hill was finally liberated from the minors by the Cubs in 2006 and got a full year in the rotation in 2007 in which he posted a fantastic 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio with even ground ball rates. And then just like that, it was gone. Last year saw Hill begin the year in the rotation, but last just 19.2 innings with 18 walks. Sent down to Triple-A, Hill walked 28 (against a good 32 strikeouts) in 26 innings. Sent down further to High-A, Hill walked 11 in 12.1 innings. Hill has been better so far this season, again split between High-A, Triple-A and now the AL, but it is too early to tell anything. His control still seems well off and he has been missing fewer bats.

David Hernandez is a 24-year-old right hander who has worked his way a level each year. Running great strikeout rates coupled with walk rates ranging from solid to fabulous, Hernandez is a welcome addition for the Orioles rotation of the future. He is going to miss a lot of bats and the Mariners hacktastic righty lineup might get embarrassed, even moreso than usual.

Star-divide

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Double Barrel Ale
Firestone Walker Brewing Co.. Paso Robles, CA

Firestone's flagship brew. It pours with a moderate light brown color and a decent head. The aroma is of light hops and a sweet malt caramel. Taste is smooth and lightly sweet. I found it a somewhat rare English ale that actually delivers on taste.

2 recs  |  Comment 62 comments |

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Speaking of Washburn

I keep thinking he would be perfect for the Mets or Dodgers. Both teams are in need and employ dangerously stupid GM’s who value proven veterans. Look how LA has given up on Blake DeWitt and the Mets geriatric line-up speaks for itself. Come on Jack!

Though I honestly don’t expect a move until after the draft.

by jimmylauderdale on Jun 1, 2009 12:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Washburn isn't really an upgrade for the Dodgers

Is he? I mean is Washburn significantly better than Stultz or Eric Milton?

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 1, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stults just went on the DL, but it's only the 15 day variety.

The Dodgers already have Kershaw, Billingsley, Wolf, and the return of Hiroki Kuroda. They have comparable pitchers in Milton and Stults, so I can’t see why they would be hard up for another starter.

by abender20 on Jun 1, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But he's still not that good.

Stults has a walk rate of 5 per 9 and a strangely low HR rate (given his career averages). Milton’s been very, very lucky on strand rate and LD%.

I think Washburn – at least right now – is clearly better, but I still don’t know that they’d give up a ton in trade.

by marc w on Jun 1, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Washburn certainly has the best control of the three, but they all generate about the same amount of K's

and are all roughly in same tRA* neighborhood. Washburn has also allowed the highest rate of HR/BIA with the lowest BABIP, so who knows? It’s not that far off though.

by abender20 on Jun 1, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's more what I was getting at

I don’t think Washburn is a significant enough upgrade for them to part with anyone. Plus they’ve got a fairly comfortable lead and can probably wait for someone to get healthy or even try and give James McDonald another shot.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on Jun 1, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everyone's in the same tRA* neighborhood at this point.

By FIP/xFIP, Washburn’s 2009 leads. By tRA, it’s Milton, then Wash, then Stults. Again, some of that may be due to Milton’s lowest LD% since 2003.

I think he’s better, but I’m not sure how much the Dodgers feel like they need to upgrade the rotation. Not sure what they’d offer.

by marc w on Jun 1, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Jarrod Washburn can go and not really affect us."

I concur. I think he’s pretty expendable in this environment. Bedard and Beltre don’t really have replacements, but Washburn does, even if this is his every-so-often good year that fools some team into thinking he’s something other than a #4.

by eponymous_coward on Jun 1, 2009 12:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

-
even if this is his every-so-often good year that fools some team into thinking he’s something other than a #4.

Which is reason 1.a why it makes sense to trade him ASAP.

by abender20 on Jun 1, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am hoping they get desperate.

And over compensate for him. You could tell that winter before the 2008 season, Bavasi was real desperate for that front of the rotation guy, to the point that despite cries from all over the blogosphere and even some of the traditional media, he still traded way way too much for Bedard.

From what I have heard from here, the Phillies GM is stupid and his mentor is Pat Gillick of all people, perfect combination for a fleecing.

by Fin on Jun 1, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The best thing that could happen now

Is that Oswalt and Peavy both say they want no part of the White Sox or Phillies and Kenny Williams and Ruben Amaro get into a bidding war over Erik Bedard. Can you imagine the carnage?

by jimmylauderdale on Jun 1, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So you're saying if we start washburn in the #1 slot

the Phils will bite?

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 1, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lopez's home/road splits:

Home: .187/.219/.242
Road: .271/.324/.458

SSS and all but that’s a .300+ point OPS difference.

by Mariner John on Jun 1, 2009 3:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

TRADE TRADE TRADE

fuck it
GIVE AWAY FREE GIVE AWAY FREE GIVE AWAY FREE

"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 1, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ehh, he only has ~100 PAs per split

Over his career he’s a more reasonable -23 points at home. He’s not a good fit for the park, and I’d like to trade him, but this isn’t real.

by Jeff on Jun 1, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Imagine Jose Lopez's warning track pull power in Fenway...

more long singles than Edgar at the end of his career when he ran like a cement mixer.

by abender20 on Jun 1, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'm aware that the sample's small.

If anything I think it means that he’s going to either improve at home or get worse on the road, or both.

by Mariner John on Jun 1, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lineups!

Ichiro RF
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Adrian Beltre 3B
Mike Sweeney DH
Russ Branyan 1B
Jose Lopez 2b
Wladimir Balentien LF
Rob Johnson C
Franklin Gutierrez CF

Brian Roberts 2B
Adam Jones CF
Nick Markakis RF
Aubrey Huff 1B
Melvin Mora 3B
Luke Scott DH
Matt Wieters C
Nolan Reimold LF
Cesar Izturis SS

by acblue on Jun 1, 2009 4:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad we've got lefties going this whole series, as Luke Scott has been on fire lately

Also because of Roberts, Markakis, and Huff

Will Ferrell once said, "Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!"

by gregrabble on Jun 1, 2009 4:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

With their recent callups...

The O’s should be better equipped to handle lefties for the rest of the year.

Career minor league splits vs lefties:

Wieters .369/.440/.706
Reimold .299/.401/.609

by dkdc on Jun 1, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love when the Orioles play the M's because it gives us an excuse to visit this site

We’re an extremely left-heavy lineup… but we’ve been able to overcome that in other games. Our major problem is that our bench RHB have sucked extremely badly. Ty Wigginton and Ryan Freel were awful. That was expected of Freel, but I was hoping for something from Wigginton against Lefties.

by math_geek on Jun 1, 2009 5:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

LHP vs RHP

Here’s a dumb question that I wanted to post in the Open Stats Questions thread but comments are closed…

With Safeco’s natural death to right handed hitters, stacking your rotation with lefties is a great way to take advantage of your home park from a run prevention side.

I understand the same/opposite handedness split and why that’s relevant. Am just curious whether there’s an alternative way to summarise this (and I may be going in all sorts of wrong directions with this comment, but someone may be able to make sense out of it, who knows).

Can we quantify the number of RF/LF putouts and split those by pitcher/batter handedness? Obviously there’s inference from field dimensions and extreme pitcher examples, but over the whole I wonder whether there’s anything in this?

That is to say, for example, in a park-adjusted case, a RHP to a LHB sees 30% more putouts to the right fielder than to the left fielder.

Is that even a useful way of expressing things? I don’t know, I’m off at a complete tangent here but it feels like I might be able to quantify the handedness split in a different way.

by MarkE on Jun 2, 2009 3:14 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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