How have the M's done when behind/ahead after each inning?, part deux

by calim on May 31, 2009 11:47 PM PDT Comment 1 comment

A couple of weeks ago, I gave a rundown of the M's record with a lead/deficit after each inning.

Those were much happier times. 15-10, coming off a 15-inning, heart-stopping victory over the A's — probably the day, unfortunately, that will be considered the high point of the year.

But this seems like as good a time as any to update the numbers, what with a couple of ninth-inning comebacks this weekend and a team that's somewhere in the neighborhood of .500 (though 25-26 would have sounded a lot better).

Thru May 31

Overall: 24-27

Felix 7-4
Bedard 4-5
Silva 3-3
Washburn 3-6
RRS 1-0
Jakabauskas 3-5
Vargas 3-1
Olson 0-3

Lead
After 1: 8-4
After 2: 12-7
After 3: 12-8
After 4: 12-11
After 5: 15-8
After 6: 16-6
After 7: 16-5
After 8: 18-3
After 9: 20-0
After 10: 2-0
After 12: 1-0
After 15: 1-0

Tied
After 1: 11-14
After 2: 6-9
After 3: 4-8
After 4: 5-3
After 5: 4-4
After 6: 5-3
After 7: 4-2
After 8: 4-3
After 9: 4-2
After 10: 2-1
After 11: 2-0
After 12: 1-0
After 13: 1-0
After 14: 1-0

Trailing
After 1: 5-9
After 2: 6-11
After 3: 8-11
After 4: 7-13
After 5: 5-15
After 6: 3-18
After 7: 4-20
After 8: 2-21
After 9: 0-25
After 10: 0-1
After 11: 0-1

Does anybody else think a team should be better than 12-11 when leading after four? Especially one whose strength is run prevention? Not really proud about that 18-3 when leading after eight, either.

One other thing I've been tracking is the M's record with each starter on the hill. Before the season, my dream world was to have Felix and Bedard win ~75 percent of their starts and the other three-fifths of the rotation win ~50 percent. Both are obviously far-fetched, but if we did it, that'd be .600 baseball. And the M's did do it, through the first month or so of the season. That, along with about everything else, came crashing down with the whole lose-9-out-of-10 thing.

Here's where it's at now:

Felix 7-4
Bedard 4-5
Silva 3-3
Washburn 3-6
RRS 1-0
Jakabauskas 3-5
Vargas 3-1
Olson 0-3

That's 11-9 for Felix and Bedard (only 55 percent, mostly not their fault), and 13-18 for everyone else (.419), also not even close to a high benchmark. Obviously bullpen and sample-size issues make this almost irrelevant, but like all the above info, it's compiled just for fun.

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Good stuff.

As far as run prevention I know that has taken a beating in the month of May due to the following factors:

- Felix being an idiot: Three outings where he gave up six runs while lasting between 4.0 to 6.0 innings in those starts. Felix loves his fastball. He might….MIGHT…be showing more respect to his changeup and the idea of mixing pitches. End of month results look good. We’ll see what happens from there.

- Bedard/Washburn scratches: Both had shaky outings followed by scratches to their following starts due to injury concerns. Which means that we had to dip in to our well of Vargas/Jakubauskas/Olson more times than we ever thought.

Between all the starts in the month of May we’ve been lucky to make it passed the 6th inning on most nights. Which leads to:

- Bullpen Overload: Geoff Baker mentioned that the bullpen was once again burnt out during the 3rd Angels game. I don’t think we’ve thought about this much but this bullpen is a gimped version of what we sent out there in April.

We lost Shawn Kelley and it’s killing us. Losing Roy Corcoran means dragging around Denny Stark way longer than we should. Vargas and Olson were supposed to bolster the bullpen but they’ve been used as emergency/try out starters. Despite carrying a 12-man pitching staff our options were, as Baker mentions, David Aardsma, Mark Lowe, Sean White, Miguel Batista and Brandon Morrow.

That’s five relievers we’re counting on to hold a lead. That’s basically a 10-man pitching staff.

Scratch that. Brandon Morrow is busy getting his control problems fixed.

That leaves four relievers. A 9-man pitching staff (David Aardsma, Mark Lowe, Sean White, Miguel Batista).

Where did our run prevention go? It fell apart.

And this doesn’t get into the fact that our run creation pretty much sucked.

by ThundaPC on Jun 1, 2009 10:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs