Two Things
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:02 AM PDT
in Miscellaneous
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Print- It's looking like Brett Myers is going to need surgery on his hip, a procedure that could end his season. His absense would leave the Phillies with a rotation of Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, J.A. Happ, and someone from the system. This is a rotation, by the way, that as of this writing has been 33.4 runs below average, with a tRA of 5.95. Jack Zduriencik needs to get on the horn and see what they'll give for Erik Bedard. The Phillies are a perfect match - they have a need, they have pieces to trade, and their front office is headed by some questionable intellect - and with the Mariners having faded from contention, now's the time to strike. Waiting only gives Bedard a chance to reduce his value, and the Phillies a chance to find someone else.
- Dave alluded to it this morning, but in case you haven't noticed, Michael Saunders has taken a big step forward in AAA this year. Not only has he bumped his OPS by 300 points, but he's improved his contact rate from 70% to 82%. It's the same kind of thing that makes me excited about Russell Branyan, and while Saunders has a smaller sample size of data, it still strikes me as being significant.
Saunders is never going to top the walk leaderboards, but with his improved contact, reasonable power, and defensive ability, he could be the new Randy Winn, and he doesn't turn 23 until November. Say hello to my new favorite prospect. If you weren't on the Saunders trolley before, you should probably think about getting on now before they run out of tickets.
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Saunders can throw, too
Just in case anyone wanted to take the Winn comparison too far. Although he’s not a borderline CF like Winn.
by Graham MacAree on May 29, 2009 11:11 AM PDT reply actions
I could compare him to Choo, but then that's just a blatant Dave ripoff
I also don’t know if Saunders is going to walk that much.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Crap, so I can't go with Choo either?
Choo’s walk rate wasn’t always THAT much higher than Saunders. Choo was around 10/11% with occasional spikes up to 13% or so. Saunders was around 10-11% in the low minors, dropping to 9% now. Still, I could see him moving that up a bit, especially if his Ks keep dropping.
I wasn’t sold on his OF defense last year, but he’s won me over. He ended a game last Thursday by nailing a runner at home plate, and he’s made some fine plays both in the corners and in CF.
I’m still hoping for a Jason Bay-like power surge as he hits his mid-20s.
The walk thing isn't huge
but Choo has improved in the Majors, and I’m not ready to predict that Saunders will do the same thing. He could, though. That’d be awesome. And if he turns into a 20-25 homer guy, then he’s likely to be all kinds of underrated.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, exactly -
both Bay/Choo/Winn were somewhat more limited in the minors, and it would’ve been tough to predict that they’d have the kinds of MLB careers that they’ve had.
Still, Saunders is much younger than Bay/Winn were at this level, and Saunders age 22 season may turn out a bit better than Choo’s age 22 season.
There’s also the fact that Saunders is just so much larger than Bay/Choo/Winn which makes me think he really could be a 25 HR guy.
From your observations
does he look like a pull hitter or a spray hitter?
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
A bit of both; he's a spray hitter in training.
He’s certainly capable of lining balls into both left/right gaps, but he’s got a lot more power when he pulls the ball (maybe not exactly a newsflash). You can see that he’s not a prototypical pull hitter, and as he gets a bit stronger, some of the line singles to left may start turning into doubles to left, and then hopefully HRs.
So a Randy Winn with power in a corner OF position with plus range?
That would be pretty neat.
by eponymous_coward on May 29, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Bay/Choo/Winn
There’s a bit of a gradient there in terms of how exciting a player is and what they offer. But if Winn is Saunders’ downside then.. um, yes please.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 29, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Saunders is neat, but Carrera might be my favorite prospect because hahahaha, Mets.
Also, High Desert and all, and the strikeout/walk rates haven’t improved much, but it’s nice to see Alex Liddi do something at the plate.
Something tells me a .435 BABIP isn't sustainable
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
That news will make a certain Dodger very unhappy.
Speaking of Juan Pierre, is Carerra’s upside somewhere in the early career Juan Pierre range (or a slightly more offensively competent Endy)?
Similar to that, but Carrera strikes out way more than Pierre right now
He needs to take the same step forward that Saunders has in that regard.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
He's also back on the DL.
I’d love to see him hit the occasional XBH, too. The league/park contexts make it impossible to really compare, so I can’t really figure out how I’d rank Gillies/Carrera…..
Yeah, else I would be flipping out over him
but hey, Ks are down a touch and the power (HD yeah, but he did move up a level and the isoP has almost tripled) is better
Oh, you were talking about Carrera. Liddi's BABIP is unsustainable too (.423)
Carrera does have the walks, nice to see.
The walk improvement is weird
Without knowing any better, it seems like a Reggie Willits kind of thing. There’s no reason why pitchers shouldn’t be attacking the strike zone against a guy like Carrera.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
There's a reason those pitchers are in Double-A?
That’s a possibility.
Well, he's never done this before, which is the thing
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
He had decent patience for a youngster
It’s not like he was Yuni. I’m hoping this is a sign that the player development staff is awesome.
There are a number of guys whose walk rate seems to have taken a step forward this year, and it’d be nice if that was the result of some sort of plan/program.
I wish we had pitch data for the lower minors
Going from a walk rate of 9% to 18% upon promotion to AA is remarkable.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
But 13% in rookie league
so it’s not like he never had it in him. 18% is remarkable, but like you say, I have to think they’re going to start throwing the ball down the middle pretty soon.
Also, interesting bit of trivia: the Southern League as a whole has a 9.8% walk rate, compared to the Eastern League and Texas Leagues at 9.3%. Last year, he was in the FSL, who’s BB rate is 8.3%, compared to the the Cal league’s at 8.5%, and the Carolina league’s 9.1%. Last year the FSL’s rate was higher, but league context/umpiring may be boosting his rate at the margins.
Sadly Denny Almonte has gone back to being Denny Almonte
by Graham MacAree on May 29, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
(shocked face)
It’s too bad – he was crushing the ball there for a while. But yeah, in his last 10 games, his BABIP sucks and he’s K’d 16 times to one walk.
Jason Donald
Oh please oh please oh PLEASE go after Donald. A 3B/SS is exactly what we need.
by ManifestDestiny on May 29, 2009 11:41 AM PDT reply actions
There are a lot of players in that system I'd be happy about getting back
Carrasco would be a treat.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
CNN/SI has Bedard on the front of its MLB section
And Heyman (I know , I know, Heyman is a douche) has a story calling Bedard the prize of the trade market…
Would John MacDonald be a bad aquisition? He's an excellent defensive shortstop.
by .Taylor on May 29, 2009 11:44 AM PDT reply actions
The John McDonald with the lifetime .262 wOBA and the 1974 birthday?
We can do better.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
He would fit in with the no-Latin program though...
As would Carp, Clement, Saunders and Fontenot!
Come to think of it…
Clement C
Carp 1B
Fontenot 2B
McDonald SS
Branyan 3B
Saunders LF
Gutierrez CF
Ichiro RF
Griffey DH
damn. So close.
We could always give Gutierrez an offseason angloplasty
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Turns out angloplasty is an actual thing and not at all what I wanted it to be
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Ricky Iglesias is quite an obscure comparison
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=“ricky+iglesias”&btnG=Google+Search&aq=f&oq=
I'm pretty sure Matthew is just so un-hip that he got the name wrong
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Understandable. hey are pretty much the same dude
Kind of like Yuni Lopez
Does The Pat Gillick Connection (tm) help or hurt the chances of a trade?
But seriously the Phillies system is just STACKED with good pitching.
Hopefully GMZ can craft a deal that’s sensible enough to not be laughed out of the room but enough to help us out.
by ManifestDestiny on May 29, 2009 11:49 AM PDT reply actions
It's Ruben Amaro.
Just throw in some guys who haven’t made many errors until he says yes.
Gillick is still an advisor for the Phillies front office
by ManifestDestiny on May 29, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
This still makes them eligible for the GIllick Curse.
He was an advisor during Bavasi’s first year, too.
by eponymous_coward on May 29, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
In addition
per Dave’s post on USSM today, the team likely has 1-2 AAA/pretty much done players they can include in any deal. Rentaplayer deals where you give up some minor league talent become sexier (and easier to get talent piled into it) when you get a good minor league player back.
by eponymous_coward on May 29, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Clement doesn't really fit
What with Howard at 1B for a while and Marson being touted as their catcher of the future. If anyone makes sense it would be one of the corner outfielders chilling in Tacoma.
Maybe we can sell LaHair as an OF. An Ibanez/Victorino/LaHair OF would be amazing to watch.
by ManifestDestiny on May 29, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
If the Phils need an OF
Chavez makes more sense.
Yeah, I could see a Bedard/Chavez deal going down.
Or even Washburn/Chavez. hee hee hee
by eponymous_coward on May 29, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Doesn't have to be Clement.
Also, the M’s have several potential rentaplayers to deal, not necessarily to Philly: Beltre, Washburn, Branyan, even someone like Aardsma, or even someone like Chavez.
by eponymous_coward on May 29, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow. I wish I knew stuff about baseball and thus would have been aware of that.
It’s almost like I was responding to your last sentence and not your first.
So I misread
I don’t need the sass
Phils/Mariners talk always gets me pumped since I’m a fan of both teams.
by ManifestDestiny on May 29, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm down with that, though I think it unlikely.
I suspect what’s more likely is something like Washburn being the consolation prize for the team that comes in second in the Erik Bedard sweepstakes.
by eponymous_coward on May 29, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought he was finished in '00
So who knows with that guy.
Yeah, but not a ton and it's still above the level of usefulness
especially coupled with more strikes being thrown.
His 86.5% contact rate is a good step above his usual level
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Right. He's worse for sure, but I'm not sure he's finished-level worse.
I’m interested to figure out why he’s throwing so many more fastballs this year. He’s at a roughly 50% increase in fastballs. It’s huge. And that might explain why hitters are making contact more often.
More fastballs but fewer cutters
Maybe the data entry guy is just getting them confused.
Also it seems that Jamie drew a sixth walk.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I can't tell
Looks like it, but he’s looked it it before.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Wouldn't the Phillies be more inclined to go after a right-hander first?
Sure, a good pitcher is a good pitcher, but wouldn’t they want something a little different than another lefty with a low 90s fastball and a devastating off-speed offering?
Talent is talent
I doubt they would mind.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Silva?
Left handed? Nope. Devastating off-speed offering? Heavens no. Good pitcher? Maybe in AA ball.
It’s certainly different from what they have.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 29, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
What kind of shithead would go for Peavy over Bedard?
Oh wait we’re talking about the Phiilies nm.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 29, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
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