On Erik Bedard's Strikeout Rate

by Jeff on May 27, 2009 11:05 PM PDT in The More You Know Comment 115 comments

Just a quick statistical note. After striking out five of the 27 A's he faced today, Erik Bedard has now struck out 54 of the 222 batters he's faced on the season, for a K% of 24.3%. That ranks him near the top of the leaderboard, around guys like Chad Billingsley and Max Scherzer. It's the second-best K% of Bedard's career.

However, Bedard's four swinging strikes on 108 pitches today lowered his swinging strike rate to 7.8%, a figure that's narrowly above average and near those of guys like Micah Owings and Kevin Correia. It's Bedard's lowest StS% since 2005.

As I've shown before, swinging strike rate and K% have a very strong relationship, and while over his career Bedard has always been able to outpace the best-fit equation shown in the chart (presumably because hitters are frozen by his curveball), this year he's doing it to an extraordinary degree. So I'm thinking that something's got to give. Either Bedard's going to start missing more bats, or his strikeout numbers are going to come down to something more in line with his rate of missed bats. Based on his career tendencies, we'd expect him to have ~9 fewer strikeouts right now than he actually does. That's a pretty significant fraction.

I wouldn't say this is necessarily a cause for concern. Bedard looks good, he looks healthy, and he's throwing more strikes than ever before. It's just something to keep an eye on. At least until he gets traded to someone else, at which point you're free to not care. You don't see a whole lot of big names moved around in early June, but Bedard seems like the ideal candidate. Let's get this wheel turning.

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Eh, the Phillies don't care about that kinda crap.

He’s not starting for us again, right? Come on, Dominic Brown!

by DAMellen on May 27, 2009 11:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

A sweep by the Angels and you may be more right than you think!

by Jeff on May 27, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know...

I think I’m pretty right. It’d be tough to be much righter than that.

by DAMellen on May 28, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Time to trade.

He’s healthy, he’s hot, come and get him.

by Sinking Away on May 28, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How close is Brown to the Majors though?

I looked on first inning and he wasn’t one of the top 100 prospects. Don’t we want the guy who is the centerpiece of the deal to be a major league ready prospect? His numbers in high A ball are impressive though.

"If your good at something never do it for free." - The Joker

by houseofprime on May 28, 2009 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not in first inning's top 100?

That’s shocking to me. Anyways, as we all know, there’s not one good way to view a prospect. Ideally, we’d get a kid with very little bust potential and a super high ceiling who’ll be ready for the majors later this year, but we can’t have it all. We’ll have to compromise on at least one of those things. Brown seems like a guy with little bust potential (due to his kick ass eye) and an extremely high ceiling (due to his kick ass athleticism). I can wait an extra year or two for that.

by DAMellen on May 28, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball America has him #48

Baseball America isn’t the end-all be-all, but they have four Phillies in the top-100 for ’09:

Dominic Brown (OF)
Carlos Carasco (SP)
Lou Marson ©
Jason Donald (SS)

So they have some guys to potentially include in a deal. I read somewhere they have a Lefty Starter kid named Antonio Bastardo who has blown up this year and may be the best prospect of them all.

by gustafm on May 28, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, moved up to Triple-A this year and is running like an 8 K/BB rate

by Matthew on May 28, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For whatever it's worth, Jayson Stark mentioned him in his latest set of thoughts.

Then there’s a left-hander who is climbing everybody’s charts, Antonio Bastardo, who has a 50-9 strikeout-walk ratio between Double-A and Triple-A. The Phillies dangled Bastardo in July for Rockies reliever Brian Fuentes. But a year later, he is actually drawing some Johan Santana comparisons, and might have passed Carrasco as their No. 1 pitching prospect.

by abender20 on May 28, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's where I saw it...

They also have Drabek’s kid who is supposedly a legit pitching prospect.

The Phils have a lot of minor leaguers to potentially include in a trade for a starter. And with Brett Myers going on the DL, they may make a move sooner rather than later.

by gustafm on May 28, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Antonio Bastardo just became my favorite name in baseball

by johnbai on May 28, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's an Alberto Bastardo too, if you prefer.

I talked with JY about this, but one of my new favorites is Deivis Goatache, a pitcher in the Pirates org.
Goat ache?

by marc w on May 28, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Bibens-Dirx is in the Independent Leagues :-(

But we do have Calix Crabbe!

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on May 28, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer to rhyme Goatache with mustache

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on May 28, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Olney just tossed McDonald as a potential name, should the Ms & Phils start to talk.

by msb on May 28, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Phillies are the team we want to trade with

There’s a bunch of good upper level prospects there and Ruben Amaro is an idiot.

by davidcameron on May 28, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I know this is a little off topic and we don't need an outfielder

,but how is John Mayberry Jr. doing? he was with Spokane Indians after he was drafted and I saw him take Rafael Soriano yard when he did a rehab start for the Aqua Socks.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 28, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Playing in Philadelphia.

by marc w on May 28, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know that. How well?

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 28, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's been 2 games....

by marc w on May 28, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Amaro will be kind of desparate...

His starting pitching is starting to fall apart due to injuries and old age, his team is coming off a WS title but just slipped behind the Mets. That team is built to contend now and has a first year GM (who is an idiot). Add it all up and it’s sort of a perfect storm for a team that will overpay. Of course, they may end up overpaying for Peavy instead of Bedard.

by gustafm on May 28, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

YAY!

I am glad to hear there are a few old school/dumb GM’s left.

by mark sobba on May 28, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hear the Royals need a shortstop too....

by OlSalty on May 28, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please write nothing but overly positive statements

about Erik until after he is traded. Build that hype train, yo!

by marinerdan on May 28, 2009 5:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dave did a similar analysis

on Cliff Lee last year, at the beginning of his breakout season. His K-rate did come down towards the end of the year as his called-strike percentage regressed and his swinging-strike percentage remained below league-average, but he still managed to sustain his success by keeping his walks down.

by Nadingo on May 28, 2009 7:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The case against trading Bedard

I’ve been wanting to ask this, and this seems to be the most on-point thread in which to ask it . Everybody seems to be taking it as given that there’s no way Bedard would re-sign with the Mariners, and in that context trading him for as much as we can makes perfect sense. But how sure are we that that’s true?

As I see it, the case for trading Bedard is that he won’t be back anyway, he’s performing well, and so we should maximize our return. Which, again, makes perfect sense. The sexy people have been making that case really well, especially Dave a few weeks ago.

But I haven’t really seen anybody making the case against trading him; and in my mind it’s a pretty good case. As I see it:

- really good teams consist of a foundation of several high-WAR players, surrounded by smart pickups that don’t cost very much

- the Mariners currently have quite a few complementary players but are lacking the core of high-WAR players both on the big-league team and in the farm system; so really the Mariners should be adding more players of Bedard’s caliber, not trading them away, especially since it’s more difficult to add high-WAR players than complementary players

- the return for Bedard is likely to be either one or several prospects; the odds are against any team surrendering prospects with a WAR ceiling as high as Bedard’s, and while Bedard is volatile, prospects bring a volatility of their own

- because Bedard is injury-prone, and the rest of the league sees him as injury-prone as well, Bedard may in fact be a good value for a high-WAR player if re-signed

- to restate that point in a different way, Bedard’s fragility will likely lower the likely return in trade; decrease his asking price after the season; and limit his options after the season, all of which point towards re-signing and away from trading

Trading Bedard makes sense if the team is sure he is unlikely to re-sign with Seattle at a price that makes sense, or if the package coming back to Seattle is compellingly strong, containing a player we think can reasonably be as good as, well, Erik Bedard. Should we believe these two things are true? If there’s a chance he could re-sign, and the trade return is made up of prospects likely to only turn into complementary players, I’m not sure I see the point.

Again, sorry if this is the wrong way or place to tackle this.

by Chris Hafner on May 28, 2009 8:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think most of us would like to re-sign Bedard.

But why take the chance this off-season and get nothing in return? If he wants to re-sign after we trade him, then he has the agency to do so.

The scariest scenario in my mind is Baltimore re-signing Bedard. That would just be devastating.

by Wilder. on May 28, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, we can be trying to resign him as we are shopping to trade him, and only do so if he doesn't accept a contract.

As well as free agency, as you said, so all venues allow him to come back to Seattle somehow, even if we are trying to shop him.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on May 28, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And we would take him back in a second.

Not to rub salt, but there are quite a few of us who would love to sign Erik back to the O’s.

Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors.

by duck on May 28, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are some good indications that Erik Bedard is not going to be keen to staying in Seattle

and trading him this summer does not preclude the Mariners from trying to re-sign him this winter.

There really isn’t a good case for not trading Bedard.

by Matthew on May 28, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are these indications top-secret insider information by chance?

Or are there quotes or articles that I can read to see that information myself?

by d0nkey on May 28, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Erik Bedard is not going to come right out and say anything like that publicly.

by Matthew on May 28, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, if he's uninterested in remaining in Seattle, it makes the whole thing moot

I just wasn’t sure how solid that is.

Both you and Wilder also make the point that trading him doesn’t preclude the Mariners from re-signing him – does that happen often, where a team will trade a player and re-sign him in free agency later in the year? I would think an incumbent team would have an advantage if that’s the goal. But then again I might be colored by the NBA, where the CBA gives some pretty substantial incentives for a player to re-sign with his current team.

by Chris Hafner on May 28, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't happen often, but it's not unheard of.

Incumbent team has no advantages per the CBA.

by Matthew on May 28, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, what we really need is the nation's leader in strikeouts ...

472 in 308 innings

by msb on May 28, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting. Are there rules against pitching underhand in MLB. I just glanced through the rule book, but I did not read it detail.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 28, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do not believe there are

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on May 28, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well forget Strasburg then.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 28, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

She can't be worst than Silva.

by mark sobba on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But we need to keep Washburn away from her.

You got slurved!

Free Tommy Hanson! Free Jeff Clement! Free Michael Saunders!

by Slurvey on May 28, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, no.

We want him to try something.

by msb on May 28, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoa Brett Lawrie is like the younger sister that comes running up to the older sibling!

OK GMZ draft DAnielle Lawire make it happen!

You got slurved!

Free Tommy Hanson! Free Jeff Clement! Free Michael Saunders!

by Slurvey on May 28, 2009 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if a female could seriously break that gender barrier in baseball.

I mean, you read in headlines seldomly how a girl pitches a no hitter or a perfect game against a team full of little league boys. I know this seems kind of stupid, but I wonder if a woman could even compete on the same level as the boys in the major leagues.

by Fin on May 28, 2009 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If anyone is going to break the gender barrier in baseball,

I have confidence it would be a female.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on May 29, 2009 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Erik Bedard is a courageous pioneer whose contributions to the sport will not soon be forgotten

by Graham on May 29, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's the possibility of a transgendered person.

by Taylor H on May 29, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/5/27/891118/on-erik-bedards-strikeout-rate#16316442

by Graham on May 29, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If it could happen any where, Seattle is the place to make it happen.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 29, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of which, I am going to blow a fuse if I hear one more Seattlite boasting about how "progressive" they are.

by Taylor H on May 29, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, this is borderline politics. I'll stop.

by Taylor H on May 29, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not being politcal, I'm just say'n the Trader Joes/Whole Foods crowd would be more open to the idea than say the Rangers crowd

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 29, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trader Joe's and Whole Foods are corporate entities.

Try Madison Market bub.

Actually don’t. Their produce and meat selection blow goats.

by acblue on May 29, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I shop at Piedmont Market in Oakland. Great little local store.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 29, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tried one of their vegan brownies once.

Needless to say, it was one of the worst experiences of my entire life.

by Taylor H on May 29, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

SSS

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on May 29, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I maintain that vegan food is intrinsically terrible.

by Taylor H on May 29, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I maintain that you haven't eaten good vegan food

I am no vegan – I’m making a beer-can chicken for dinner tonight – but vegan food doesn’t have to be terrible.

Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.

by pdb on May 29, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong!

by acblue on May 29, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

List four different vegan dishes you find delicious. I will try them and get back to you.

by Taylor H on May 29, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beer, Chana saag, any form of dosa (actually most South Indian food works here)

by abender20 on May 29, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vegan food that is trying to emulate normal european food isn't great

but there’s tons of vegan Thai and Indian dishes that are delicious.

by johnbai on May 29, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. No one is happy with Tofurkey, but food that is created as vegan food is wonderful.

by abender20 on May 29, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I used to be progressive

but then I got rid of my car and didn’t find a need to keep my insurance.

by Matthew on May 29, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jesus.

by Jeff on May 29, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I thought at first too, but it turns out that no, it wasn't Jesus.

by Matthew on May 29, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something is wrong with you today

by Jeff on May 29, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thursdays always mess with my mental axis.

by Matthew on May 29, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Today is Friday.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 29, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it?

How silly of me to confuse days like that.

by Matthew on May 29, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

After I typed I realized it was a joke

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 29, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If only you knew how much of a joke it actually was.

by Matthew on May 29, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think she's a little too old for him anyway

by EJO on May 28, 2009 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would not be a ridiculous idea to have one of these pitchers be a reliever.

They can literally play every day and their arm location and pitch type would be a complete 180 on what the batters have seen all day. But I think right now the likelihood would be something like a lefty specialist or something that did not require many innings. At least until one of the pitchers throws >90.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on May 29, 2009 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

by Graham on May 29, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You guys took a fun joke and made it far too serious.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on May 29, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure that it's possible to generate much more velocity underhanded, especially given the amount of leverage you sacrifice by not throwing over the top.

by abender20 on May 29, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bedard is such a fun pitcher to watch

when he’s healthy. I almost miss him giving the Red Sox fits.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 28, 2009 1:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Curse you, Neyer.

• Erik Bedard has one of the highest strikeout rates in the American League. But according to Lookout Landing’s Dave, if Bedard doesn’t start missing more bats, his strikeout rate must fall. Which is just one more reason to trade him.

by Jeff on May 29, 2009 10:02 AM PDT reply actions 8 recs