Fun with Fangraphs
by eponymous_coward on May 19, 2009 12:26 PM PDT
33 comments
- If you total up the WAR contributions of Yuni, Junior, Joh, Rob Johnson, Loafie and Beltre to the season so far, you get a grand total of -1.5 WAR.
So... what this boils down to is 55% of the Mariner lineup for 2009 the performance of 55% of the Mariner lineup so far this year wouldn’t make a particularly good core of your team in AAA, let alone the majors. In light of that, being somewhat under .500 but not in the cellar is actually kind of nice.
- On a similar note, ZiPS projections think Beltre and Lopez have some bounceback coming to them but it thinks Joh, Yuni and Junior are varying shades of toast, and Rob Johnson is terrible. This pretty much corresponds to what I think. Yay confirmation bias.
- Oh, and of those players, only one of them (Griffey) is Zdurencik's "fault"- and he's arguably the easiest to replace in the organization for next to nothing (pick one or more of Clement/Nelson/Wlad/Carp/Shelton/LaHair/Redman). This would be a great time to thank Bill Bavasi for more of his GM acumen.
Anyone see anything else interesting in Fangraphs?
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You write very negative fanposts.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on May 19, 2009 12:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Give me a better team to work with.
And again, I think the Mariners not being completely left for dead with over half the lineup performing like a mediocre AAA team is a GOOD thing. It’s pretty obvious what the problems are, and for some of the problems (DH, 2B, SS), you could fix this without mortgaging the future.
by eponymous_coward on May 19, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out Griffey's weird season so far.
His line is .219/.342/.354. And when facing righties — probably his last remaining usable skill — he’s hitting .244/.352/.333. I know it’s not unheard-of to have an OBP higher than your SLG, but they tend to be more in the Willits/Willie realm than an aging Hall of Fame slugger with a platoon advantage.
Also, he has two homers of lefties but no other hits against them.
And to cap it off, his UZR/150 in RF this year is +28.5
Just a weird couple of months.
by Teej on May 19, 2009 1:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My gut tells me Griffey does not make it to September.
by Sec 108 on May 19, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt this.
There’s no way the team cuts Griffey during the season. Maybe he goes on the DL for acute suckitis and gets a few swan songs in September, but I don’t see him just hanging them up ala Schmidt, or the team dissing the guy who is almost certainly their first HOFer (I don’t think Edgar gets in, except through the Veteran’s Committee, and Randy and A-Rod aren’t going to wear Mariner caps in Cooperstown).
by eponymous_coward on May 19, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's cutting and then there's making a de facto bench coach though
He may suit up for every game, but I fear that Griffey’s running on fumes even more than we first thought. I don’t think the team would be dumb enough to take the PR hit that would come with letting him go mid-season, but he may become full-time Clubhouse Presence Guy before August is out.
Nice Guys Finish Third - My semantics are a waste of time.
by pdb on May 19, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I'm not saying he will be cut.
More like he announces he misses his family and as much as he loves Seattle he must call it quits.
by Sec 108 on May 19, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, they both didn't quit in the middle of the season.
That’s why I referenced Mike Schmidt, who DID basically decided “OK, I suck now, I’m leaving” in the middle of the year. It’s pretty rare to have this happen during the season.
This is why I think the DL trip for acute suckitis (call it Player A Syndrome) is more likely if Griffey isn’t turning it around. It would turn him into the de-facto bench coach/Clubhouse Guy, and then you can bring him back once rosters expand in September for his final go-round.
by eponymous_coward on May 19, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're overreacting to his slow start
by Poochie on May 19, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's also 39 years old and has been going downhill offensively for years.
At some point “slow start” becomes “he’s just not very good any more”. I am suggesting to you that it’s at least somewhat likely Griffey’s gotten to that point.
An American League average LHB, facing RHP was a .347/.430 hitter last year. Griffey is going to have to slug around .450 the rest of the year JUST to hit that mark (and this makes him a below-average DH for the year, because DHs as a group are better hitters than the average AL LHB vs RHP).
So, in other words, if Griffey spends the rest of 2009 slugging about what he did against RHP in 2008 (.462) and maintaining his current OBP, without much decline from there, he’ll be a below-average DH for the entirety of 2009. What exactly is the argument for bringing him back in 2010? So he can get more counting stats on his baseball card and block younger players? I’m just not seeing the argument, given that he’ll have had a final season in Seattle and it’s pretty obvious he’s not a superior player any longer. I think this is his final year.
by eponymous_coward on May 19, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While I do not mention this just to defend Griffey.
He is notoriously bad in April, and was extremely unlucky for the majority of the year (though this has since started to balance out). Also, ZiPS are not based on platoon splits, so if he is NOT done against righties, the ZiPS isn’t going to take that into account, and his wOBA will be higher.
I make no assumptions that improvement will occur, but I am fine not assuming he is done yet until maybe mid to late June.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on May 19, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno.
His season is reminding me of Edgar circa 2004- you get occasional glimpses of the player he used to be, but the fat lady is clearly warming up off stage. I don’t mind letting him get his final hurrah as an M any more than I mind Edgar doing it, given that our odds of contention are melting like mountain snow in May.
Even if Griffey DOES bounce back some (and ZiPS is saying he will and building that into his rest of the season), is he going to want to come back in 2010 after hitting .250/.350/.410 or so as a DH over a full season (and if he recovered to do that as his final line, he’d have to significantly outhit his 2008 for the rest of the year)?
by eponymous_coward on May 19, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair to Griffey, he used to rule in April when he was in Seattle.
Through 1999, his composite April line is .301/.384/.600 in 1,013 plate appearances (69 homers). After 1999, his composite April line is .231/.334/.408 in 658 plate appearances (22 homers).
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on May 19, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Branyan's WAR for 2009 is already higher than any other year in his career.
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on May 19, 2009 1:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So is David Aardsma's.
Aardsma’s career WAR coming into this year was 0.1; he’s got 0.3 already (which matches his career high).
Coming into 2008, Ramon Santiago had amassed -31.5 bRAA, and in his last 200PAs has garnered +12.1 bRAA. What.
by marc w on May 19, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And also Raul is currently beating his 2008 WAR by .3 wins and it's only mid May.
Urghh. Don’t know what to think about this. His defence just cannot be that average…
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on May 19, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd feel worse about it if we didn't get the picks.
He didn’t fit in this team’s plans, and his absence leads to two young players. If Ibanez were able to duplicate his heroics in Seattle for this season, sure, the Mariners would be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Long term, though, we’re better off this way. Since I’m clear on that, I’m perfectly happy to see Raul have a great season. Good for him.
by abender20 on May 19, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh.
Look, his talent set isn’t THAT hard to replace, even if you assume he’s just OK on defense, not poor (and it may be that his change in numbers is in part because he’s gone from a HUGE LF to a small one). It just seems like it because we have 34635623546 guys on the roster who’ve never seen a two-seamer from a righty they won’t swing at.
by eponymous_coward on May 19, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So… what this boils down to is 55% of the Mariner lineup for 2009 wouldn’t make a particularly good core of your team in AAA, let alone the majors.
No, what it boils down to is that the performance of 55% of the Mariner lineup so far this year wouldn’t make a particularly good core of your team in AAA, let alone the majors. I really don’t think it’s necessary to be so sensationalist with this information.
by Fogel on May 19, 2009 4:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
For a long time
I figured you were just curmudgeonly because the organization was run so poorly. But now, we’ve got the front office of our dreams and you haven’t changed a lick.
What’s the point of being a wet blanket?
by davidcameron on May 19, 2009 6:33 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Clearly "you could fix this without mortgaging the future" is a pronouncement of DOOOOOOM.
I also stomp kittens.
by eponymous_coward on May 20, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, clearly, I am down on this team.
From your place:
eponymous coward on May 18th, 2009 2:29 pm
Yet another negative consequence of years of mismanagement. This mess will take a couple of years to clean up.
It’s getting REALLY old to keep hearing this, because it’s simply not true. The Mariners were able to adequately patch CF and 1B (as well as the entire OF defense) from last year’s team in the space of ONE offseason, and it didn’t take exorbitant contracts to do it, either. It is not going to take Fort Knox and every prospect in the minor league system to add a LHB middle infielder or LHB OF, and replacing the SS and C with simply decent 2 WAR players will help move the team strongly forward, plus there’s something close to 40-45 million in salary moving off the books next year in the form of Beltre, Bedard, Washburn, Batista and Griffey, so it’s really not like Zdurencik won’t have resources to make intelligent FA signings OR take on salary in a trade.
This team is not that far away from being able to contend, and the doom and gloom needs to stop.
by eponymous_coward on May 20, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a direct response to you here e_c,
but if this is going to turn into a USSM thing, please take it there.
by Matthew on May 20, 2009 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it isn't. I'm done.
If the impression I am putting across is that I am a sourpuss who gets no enjoyment ever out of the Seattle Mariners, it may be wrong, but that is still me screwing up how I am coming across. I need to write better.
by eponymous_coward on May 20, 2009 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
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