Lefty Sock
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 19, 2009 7:07 AM PDT
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PrintAccording to some guy named Dan Walsh, Zduriencik has brought Brad Nelson back into the fold. This is kinda good news in the sense that he is a young, talented, USSM approved, lefty hitter with the kind of old player skills our roster desparately needs. The problem, as davidcameron points out is he has nowhere to play, even in the event of the long overdue release of Brian LaHair, which leads me to the speculative portion of my post.
Beltre's availability has been much discussed, and while his hitting so far is not going to keep Zduriencik's pager buzzing, his talent is undeniable and his defense has been as advertised. Trading Beltre is a reasonable move both in terms of profit for the team and feasablility. In the event of a Beltre trade, Branyan can potentially cross the diamond to play third base, making room for one of the Tacoma LH 1B/DH clusterfuck and adding balance to the lineup. Again, as Dave Allen pointed out in yesterday's USSM post, replacing one of our free swinging righties with a league average LH bat would add a half a run per game on average against the likes of Weaver, Feldman, and Colon. This would be a good thing.
Naturally, the team takes a significant defensive hit, going from AB's stellar defense to Branyan's average at absolute best, which mitigates the upside. But with the added production, as well as the presumed infusion of talent into the system, it seems like an overall win for the team both in terms of 09 and beyond. I'm not entirely convinced it makes a lot of sense, and Branyan may not be able to play a convincing 3B at all. Additionally, playing 3B may take away from his hitting. Who knows. But the thought has occurred to me a few times and I wanted to toss it out there for general discussion.
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This still doesn't make any sense.
Freely available talent is awesome, but not if it could potentially impact the development of actual prospects.
If he takes one AB from Carp or Saunders, that’s one too many.
That's kind of what I was thinking
which is why I posted the Branyan to third scenario. I’d been thinking about it since Dave’s posted regarding the team’s dire need of another lefty infielder but the difficulty of acquiring one. I thought it too unlikely at the time, since none of the minor league candidates were quite ready to step in (LaHair’s not good enough, Clement’s not really a 1B, Carp could use more time in AAA).
I suppose a Branyan trade is more likely given his and Beltre’s recent production and contracts, but I would prefer the Beltre trade. Either way, I cannot make any sense of this move unless one of those two guys is about to leave the org.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 19, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
not that Yuni could be exposed any more
but moving Branyan over would accomplish that
OK fine, if there's a plague that wipes out 4-5 guys, yeah.
But there’s no way he’d be ahead of Carp or Shelton at 1B, Saunders or potentially even Redman in LF, and at this point he’s probably behind Bryan LaHair. I suppose if the team decided to DFA Griffey and bring up Clement or Carp, he could platoon with Shelton or something. There are a lot of dominoes that need to fall before he becomes a clear ‘best option’ at DH/1B/LF in Tacoma, let alone Seattle.
Two weeks ago the Cardinals had one of the deepest OF in the majors and now they're starting Shane Robinson
I would rather have an interesting player then not have one.
So would I!
And hey look, we’ve got some!
There are ways to stash the guy without interfering with actual prospects. Welcome to Jackson, Tennessee, Mr. Nelson.
No, he's not behind LaHair
and he’s readier to contribute in the majors than Carp; and unlike Redman, he’s actually a prospect (though also unlike Redman, he isn’t an OF).
by The Ancient Mariner on May 19, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
That's a stupid response to someone asking you how you know the Mariner depth chart
by Graham MacAree on May 21, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, it was . . . I do that occasionally
usually when I’m distracted (or my kids have me in a bad mood). My bad. Nelson isn’t behind LaHair because he’s Zduriencik’s guy and LaHair isn’t — fair or not, that’s the reality — and while Carp certainly looks like the better prospect to me and the one you’d want to win a full-time job in ST, right now he has less than 200 AB in AAA, and probably isn’t the guy you’d want to bring up in mid-season. As for Redman, the dude’s 29; I don’t know why he’s been judged not to be a prospect, but that clearly seems to be the judgment.
by The Ancient Mariner on May 21, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Nelson is an actual prospect, too
He’s older than Carp, but he still ought to be a useful player given a real chance.
by The Ancient Mariner on May 19, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
He WAS an actual prospect
He had an amazing season in the Midwest League as a teenager.
Since 2005, Brad Nelson has been a .270/.361/.440 hitter in the high minors. Those are roughly his 22-25 year old seasons.
Bryan LaHair is basically exactly the same age, and looking at the same years/levels, LaHair has hit .288/.358/.472. Both have spent most of this time in the PCL, and both in pitcher’s parks, so there aren’t a ton of park/league effects to worry about.
Adjusting for park effects for the hell of it, LaHair’s slg goes up to .496, and Nelson’s goes up to .452.
Can you name one 1b/LF ‘prospect’ with a multi-year SLG percentage of .452 in the PCL?
(for reference, Mike Morse’s career PCL slg. adjusted for park is a very Nelsonian .448.)
To be fair, LaHair has horrific platoon splits while Nelson doesn't.
But that simply means that Nelson’s not great shakes if you want a lefty bench bat. LaHair is legitimately decent hitting righties, and lost v. lefties. Nelson’s mediocre versus both.
If someone on your street is selling a slightly used Honda Accord for 500 bucks and you already have two Accords in your two-car garage,
why not buy the third and park it on the street?
Your argument is from the perspective that Nelson doesn’t offer much over our current crop and that it would be bad for him to take away developmental time. That’s fair. However, if the organization can find something to do with Nelson without impacting the growth of the other players, there is absolutely no reason why the Mariners should turn down free depth.
Because you still have to insure/license it?
Seriously, I think free depth is great if it doesn’t interfere with player development. If he’ll accept an assignment to AA, awesome.
The thing I really don’t get in all of this is why Nelson signed here. There are 3-4 guys ahead of him at any of the three positions he could play.
I’ve got no problems if he doesn’t interfere with those players, but I have no idea why he’d do this.
More generally, people seemed to think Nelson is more of a prospect than (I think) he is, or that he’d jump ahead of Carp/Wlad/Chavez or Saunders on the depth chart. If he did, I’d be worried.
Probably in a few months Branyan/Beltre will be gone, and Griffey/Sweeney will get fewer and fewer at bats
and that will “unjam” the roster
Someone over at USSM brought up how
given Adam LaRoche’s struggles this year, signing Nelson could be setting up the Yuni-for-Wilson trade. Perhaps the Pirates would like some RH depth at 1b, and would like Shelton in the trade.
I can’t see Brad Nelson deciding to go with the M’s unless he had some assurances that there would be some playing time in his future.
Ooooooops.
Eduardo Perez has been working out!
RICHIE!!!
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on May 19, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
What's Josh Phelps doing these days?
Was he cut by the Giants, or did they stash him somewhere?
Miguel Cairo is in the unemployment line now too
I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ
Frank Thomas
Thomas/Griffey Platoon and it really is 1995 all over again.
...and now I'm here
Oh man, feels like 3rd grade all over
I should bust out the Triple Play Gold for the Genesis if this were to happen
I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ
3rd grade?
Get off my damned lawn!!!!
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on May 19, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions
So if the Mets need a better first baseman than Fernando Tatis to replace Delgado
What do you think they’d offer for Branyan?
We should trade them Carp for JJ Putz
by Graham MacAree on May 19, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Poor Nick Evans
Is he in extended spring training now?
That would-solve- add to our bullpen problems.
There you go.
"Even the stupidest of men, by some instinct of nature, is convinced on his own that with more observations his risk of failure is diminished."
-Jacques Bernoulli Ars conjectandi 1713
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 19, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
You can call it that
(though I’m not sure it is, really) but that doesn’t change the fact that that’s what he did.
by The Ancient Mariner on May 21, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
They have to give us Sean Green back too
at least while Kelley is out
by seattlebruin on May 19, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Reese Havens, please.
But I’m a little too into that guy. Actually, the Mets might be into Bedard, too. My plan: trade Bedard and Branyan to Mets; reap prospects bounty, have Beltran miss the playoffs due to a comical ailment like the effects of the big-head juice that Mr. Burns gave Griffey; see Bedard and Branyan win a World Series with the Mets,* thus denying that to the Angels, Red Sox, or Yankees; resign Branyan to be our 2010 DH (if GMZ continues to imprison Jeffie) – Saunders, Ichiro, Carp, Branyan, yay!
*Dislike for K-Rod, Beltran, and Putz offset by Wright, Reyes, and Johan.
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