Series Preview: Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners
by Matthew on May 15, 2009 10:30 AM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Previews
Email
PrintSeattle: 16-19
Boston: 21-14
SUMMARY
| MARINERS | RED SOX |
EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA) |
-37.5 (30th) | 18.3 (7th) | BOS |
| FIELDING (UZR) |
8.8 (6th) | -12.2 (26th) | SEA |
| ROTATION (pRAA) |
11.7 (6th) | -9.2 (22nd) | SEA |
| BULLPEN (pRAA) |
-9.1 (25th) | 11.5 (4th) | BOS |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-26.1 | 8.4 | Boston |
Top of the morning to y'all, it looks like we have a doozy of a mis-match awaiting us this weekend. After peaking with the dramatic multi comeback win over Oakland on May 3rd, the Mariners have won just once in ten attempts, including five losses to divisional leader Texas.
Suffice to say the Ms are reeling at the moment and they come back to Seattle to face the Red Sox for three, the Angels for four and the Giants for three before heading off to Oakland for three and Anaheim for three to close out the month of May. That is a sixteen game stretch (10% of the season) that involves ten games against AL West opponents and the conclusion of which will have seen the Mariners play just over a quarter of their games for 2009. We'll have a much clearer picture of the road ahead on June 1st.
This is an interesting match up between wildly different unit strengths. The Mariners strength so far has been in the defense and in the rotation, the two biggest weaknesses for the Red Sox. And vice versa with Boston's strengths in offense and the bullpen. Unfortunately for us as you will see below, the rotational alignment is unlikely to highlight our to-date strength in that department, further worsening our odds. The Mariners are throwing three guys who have made a combined six starts for us this season and the Red Sox counter with the three starters they have who have posted above average tRAs this year.
GAMES
Game 1: Chris Jakubauskas vs. Jon Lester*
Game 2: Garrett Olson* vs. Josh Beckett
Game 3: Jason Vargas* vs. Justin Masterson
Jakubauskas's batted ball profile is still quite good, posting well below average line drive and well above average ground ball rates. The problem is that with the three walk-zero strikeout performance in his last outing, Jakubauskas has just nine strikeouts to seven walks over 21 innings. Still, if he maintained everything that he's done to date and just watched his HR/FB rate regress to normal his tRA would be about 5.35 against a so far league average of 5.16. For a guy who is not designed to be anything more than your 6th or 7th starter, that's pretty good.
Jon Lester has seen his ratio of missed bats shoot skyward from 7.7% last year to 11.6% so far in 2009. His batted ball profile is roughly the same, a little worse on the whole, but nothing too major. He's been looking terrible for two main reasons: a .393 BABIP and a whopping 12.1% of balls in the air going over the fence. Those are likely to come back down to Earth as the season progresses. The missed bats though, and the corresponding rise in strikeout rate (it has jumped nine points) may be for real. In which case, watch out.
Josh Beckett's walk rate has exploded this year going from a mid 4% in 2007 and 2008 to over 10% this season, the highest rate of his career. A five point increase in his line drive rate also is not looking pretty though his ERA is still artificially inflated by his BABIP at .381. Beckett's swinging strike ratio is at the lowest point of his career as well. It's a mix of legitimately terrifying signs and bad luck that a start against the Mariners offense should do much to salve.
Justin Masterson misses an average number of bats and generates an average number of strikeouts, but he has control problems leading to mediocre walk rate. He does however do a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and oh shit not this again. Boned.
THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:
Matt Commemorative Ale
Hair of the Dog Brewing Company. Portland, OR
Holy crap was this amazing. I am pleased to have some bottles squirreled away for aging, but if you missed out, do not despair just yet! Bottleworks, celebrating the re-opening of their tap lines at the bottle shop plans to have HotD Matt on tap today starting at 11am along with New Belgium Bottleworks 10 (a sour), Russian River Pliny the Younger (an IPA), Russian River Consecration (a sour) and Elysian Bitch from a Barrel with Brett (a sour).
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Any one going this weekend to Safeco?
How about a list of questions one should ask the “Sawx Fan” seated next to you, to discover just how true a fan they really are?
Aside from the classics: “Who is the GM?” and “Who is the field manager?”
My favorite is to start with Yaz, (which a non-bandwagoner should be able to tell you about)
then ask who played played RF most of those games in 1967. (Conigliaro)
If they didn’t know he played LF, then they aren’t even close.
Alternatively, ask who Theo took over for. (Mike Port, although Dan Duquette isn’t that bad of an answer)
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I know who Argyros is (was).
I had relatives growing up that talked about him.
Same thing with Trailblazers and Petrie/Wicks, although those players didn’t play while I was alive.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
The point is your question doesn't separate real fans from bandwagoners
More than anything else it will just tell you who’s old and who’s young, and most of the time you don’t need to talk to someone to figure that out.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
I know very little about this team's history pre-World Series Baseball '94 for SEGA
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I could in 1995, but not now.
I’m not much of a historian. I just don’t care enough to remember things like that. I’ll remember plays and my favorite players, but lineups and numbers just don’t remain in my head past a year. I could probably do the 2001 team just because people around here and USSM talk about it all the time so it’s sunk in.
If you grow up in a household with fans of a team, you hear about the teams that existed before you.
Especially that year’s team when it comes to the RS.
So I guess it tells you who comes from fan families more than the fans, but that should be a pretty good indicator.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
There's a lot more players on a football team,
and you probably can name off more than the top player from a given “era”, right?
And growing up as a Cards fan (I think), I’m sure you heard about more than Bob Gibson or Lou Brock from the era before?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
The point is that fandom comes in a near infinite amount of diversity
and I don’t take the opinions of people who try to judge who is/is not a fan seriously.
My Dad couldn't care less about the Mariners or baseball at all, really.
That doesn’t make me any less of a fan.
Who's to say that there's a line that seperates fandom from bandwagon, then?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
To elaborate, I've been to less than a handful of M's games at Safeco.
I had a few more at the Kingdome, and another decent handful on the road wherever I was living at the time.
I couldn’t tell you anything about the beer garden, or falling roof tiles (too young).
But yet I go to games when I can get to them, and root for the M’s. Am I a bandwagoner? What level of knowledge does that line sit at?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I don't think the difference between a real fan and a bandwagoner can be found in the realm of knowledge
It comes down to loyalty and attention paid when times are tough.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
We still have Lou around, right?
He’d never leave us.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I'm a bandwagon fan becauase my parents grew up in Chicago but I grew up in Spokane?
They don’t care about baseball much, so I naturally took to the Mariners as soon as I was old enough to make those kind of depressing life decisions.
Bandwagon fans are the fans that only jump aboard during winning seasons. Knowledge of a team is not the only criteria with respect to fandom. If you show up during the playoffs in a new M’s hat and start cheering for Eye-Cheer-Oh, yeah you’re probably a bandwagon fan. If you have cared and rooted for and followed the M’s through all the bad times, probably not.
If you are a fan of the team, shouldn't you have accumulated some sembelance of knowledge?
At least through osmosis?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I don't know anything about the team's history pre-2001
by Graham MacAree on May 15, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Whoa
That’s why people hate him so much? I thought he came up with the Rangers
by Graham MacAree on May 15, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah! We used to have Griffey too!
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
It was nice having a Johnson on the team that was actually a good baseball player.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
I used to want him here so bad when I believed his good seasons were for real
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I also seem to recall wanting Mike DiFelice, Jared Sandberg, and Pete LaForest
I never could figure out why the Devil Rays sucked so bad.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
You just said you wanted a lot of bad players and now you criticize him for one
Perhaps you should read the style guide and then comment further
by Dewey N on May 15, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Rays were loaded with A-level talent
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm 2000 I was the most retarded baseball fan in existence
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
You had me beat then.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
Unless we are playing in Chicago
Where Rick Rizzs will inevitably talk about his childhood.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
So you started off as a bandwagoner?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Note: I missed 94-95 and the whole 2001 season.
This makes me more of a fan than anyone here, because it was all bad times for me.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
At the risk of Corcoing,
Under NOLA’s rules, I should stop paying attention.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
You're too hung up on semantics in this case.
Everyone starts somewhere. It’s about how you approach it, not how encyclopedic you are in your knowledge of the times before you knew who they were.
I was being facetious in the last two,
but I regard having picked up some of the facts of seasons past as a proxy for knowing that someone was there, or at least cared enough to pick up something.
Even someone that isn’t a diehard knows that Blowers played for the M’s (and probably knows he played third in that case), even just from listening to a sampling to games. Most likely, there’ll be a spark there when you talk about it that you can tell.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I started off as someone who listened to Mariner games on the radio in 2001
by Graham MacAree on May 15, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I played cricket when I was young but have 0 experience playing organised baseball
by Graham MacAree on May 15, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
When I was in England I watched some cricket when I was in a pub
I had a hard time understanding it, but it seemed interesting.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
I don't find it interesting at all anymore
by Graham MacAree on May 15, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
He's still good, by all accounts.
by Susheel Ramasahayam on May 15, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Not as prolific a scorer he once was, but is still one of the top 3 hitters on the Indian national team, which has a damn good batting line up.
by Susheel Ramasahayam on May 15, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Eh, I have an unhealthy love for the Bihari Bitch, Yuvraj, and Sehwag.
Also, Pathan always manages to be in top form when I get a chance to watch. Sachin is still good, he’s just showing his age quite a bit.
I'm not quite sure who the Bihari Bitch is, but the other two are streaky hitters.
But when they’re on, game over.
by Susheel Ramasahayam on May 15, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
+ 
Dammit, I wish I could see more than three of these pictures.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
He said pre-2001
not pre-1996. You’ve got 5 more years to cover. Here, I’ll start you out:
I'm more like I am now than I've ever been.
.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
& 
Haha
Just start at the hip and don’t stop ’til you reach the feet
I want to poop at your house - Thingray
by tootthekazoo on May 15, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Would that put Alvin Davis on your balls?
Or are we just talking the outside of the leg?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Everybody digs a spinning Griffey head
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Especially if it's spinning down the side of a hill after being removed from his neck
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Just because I hate him and he's black doesn't mean I hate him because he's black
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
by Dewey N on May 15, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Some
but it’s possible to care very deeply about a team without caring about their stats or transactions very much.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Just to get back to the original question then
If you sit next to someone in Safeco who offers up that they have no idea who played on the team before 2004, who doesn’t know why the name ‘Aaron Boone’ means anything (let alone Mo Vaughn or, going back a bit, Bill Buckner), and who doesn’t know what stadium the Sox play in, etc. etc., they may simply be a passionate fan who approaches the game/fandom differently?
By the discussion here, no youngish person in a Boston hat could qualify as a bandwagon fan; they haven’t been tested yet. Can this result really be true?
I'm not going to engage a fan in Red Sox garb in discussion, but you want one question to ask them?
Here you go.
Why do you root for Boston?
His or her answer to that question is all you should ever need to know.
I don't want to ask them questions either.
But by this discussion, we couldn’t actually tell no matter what answer they gave to your question. Who knows, maybe they WILL stick with them when times get tough.
I’m going to stick with making ruthless, often unsubstantiated judgments silently.
No one said you should making ruthless and unsubstantiated judgments.
That’s important.
Seems to me that the terms "real fan" and "bandwagoner" and such
are really just terms applied to the how and why somebody became a fan of a team. That’s the real question and everything has been built on top of that premise and now boiled down to labels.
You could always ask how they spent the summer of 2006
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
When I was your age young man, we used to walk the 6 miles up to the other person and say "LATE".
You goddamn kids these days got no work ethic.
by abender20 on May 15, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would be surprised to see how many could name the right field fair pole.
Just come up with random historical facts that any real Red Sox fan would know. Phrase them like you’re asking them because you can’t remember. Should be fun.
Free Jeffie!
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
Pesky's pole is a constant Joe Morgan talking point.
Most bandwagoners probably know that by now.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
There isn't anything Joe Morgan hasn't fucked up, is there?
Free Jeffie!
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
Why do you even ask?
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
You should know that answer.
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
At least there wasn't misplaced optimism in our pitchers.
Who knew this offense would suck?!?[/sarcasm]
Free Jeffie!
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
I take that back.
*misplaced optimism in our starters.
Fix’d.
Free Jeffie!
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
FUCK.
HOTD Matt is on tap at Bottleworks today? Wheeeeeee! I’m still pretty sure I’ll never actually get to taste this. Glad to know it’s ‘amazing.’
Lester’s season is fascinating. I’m a bit surprised his tRA is as high as it is, but I guess the GB% drop would do that.
I really expected to see a big drop in Beckett’s FB velocity, but no such luck. Any change in movement?
Hmph.
Tim Kurkjian has an entire column on third basemen and doesn’t mention Beltre. Apparently the important thing about playing third is hitting.
How you can be celebrating sours after SBW's Sour Night is beyond me.
But sours fit well with RSN
by Kirsten Schlewitz on May 15, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions
Robert will be the one laughing in 3 days
"Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!" - Will Ferrell.
'Fan': You see, this is why I could never be an M's fan
Your front office makes all sorts of ridiculous moves that cripple the franchise!
Me: Well, yes, there does seem to be a pattern here, though the new GM has done a lot to correct this.
‘Fan’: Hahaha! You talk like a fag, and we’re world champions! Fag!
(Just don’t talk to Sox fans)
Things like this happened at every game last year, so instead of egging them on, don't respond to their insults.
If you keep giving them crap, and they don’t see you getting distressed over how they act to you, they get much more upset, and it’s much more fun that way.
Honestly, I’m just as mad at Seattle fans for not trying to boo the “Let’s Go Red Sox” chants. Half the time I find myself wanting to yell at our fans for allowing the fans of the opposing team to out-cheer us in our own house. It’s really annoying.
The Yankees coming to town is much more fun, Yankees fans are far more respectful and you can actually engage in fun trash talk and banter with them.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 15, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I though garlic fries and tell them to shut the hell up.
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
I just picked up the earphones again...
in time to hear Ian Furness lauding Steve Kelley’s column on Morrow.
Gosh dangit, you guys!
I was supposed to run errands all day but this site is making it effing impossible!
All in moderation, yes? Mm, minus when it comes to baseball. :)
Go Ms!
Bottleworks remodel is great
After lurking for a few years, I finally registered because I just walked home from the grand re-opening. If you’re both a beer and bourbon fan, Hair of the Dog Matt is sublime… and I’m not saying that because I drank the snifter on an empty stomach.
If they ever add an outdoor drinking area, I’ll accept the full-blown alcoholism as inevitable.
I'm really intrigued by the new Bottleworks layout.
I hope it’s still cavernesque.
by Aaron Campeau on May 15, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
The lighting is the same
so no worries there. It does feel roomier when you get past the register, though, since they took out the middle display section.
Today's lineup
Ichiro RF
Jose Lopez 2B
Mike Sweeney DH
Adrian Beltre 3B
Wladimir Balentien LF
Russell Branyan 1B
Kenji Johjima C
Yuni Betancourt SS
Frankline Gutierrez CF
by ThundaPC on May 15, 2009 3:26 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Why the fuck is Gutierrez batting 9th
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 15, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
There are so many directions this answer could go in.
I’m gonna say Wak has an irrational hatred of beautiful men.
Everything about this gif is perfect, right down to Felix's expression and the hands that in my head are clapping cymbals
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm reading Yuni's lips trying to figure out what he is saying.
So far I am at, “They won’t go home alive.”
Noting that he is mingling amongst his fellow Latinos.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
That wasn't a cultural observation so much as a statement of fact.
Yuni speaks pretty lousy English, so if he’s getting excited and babbling to Felix, it’s Spanish.
Sure, makes sense.
I was just arriving at the same conclusion a different way I suppose.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
Feel free to rec the original maker!
And the guy who provided a measurable amount of help to the original maker!
by Matthew on May 15, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
Yes
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/5/13/874821/well-gosh#15697677
with a tip o’ my non existent cap to Jeff for the GIFing tutorial.
by Matthew on May 15, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Question for all: what is your opinion of Jon Lester?
I’ve never seen him pitch, and I know almost nothing about him except that he grew up in Tacoma, got busted for stealing laptops or something stupid like that, got cancer, and is becoming a pretty sick pitcher (look at that K/9 rate!). Any thoughts?
Yes! I do have thoughts.
Jon Lester has seen his ratio of missed bats shoot skyward from 7.7% last year to 11.6% so far in 2009. His batted ball profile is roughly the same, a little worse on the whole, but nothing too major. He’s been looking terrible for two main reasons: a .393 BABIP and a whopping 12.1% of balls in the air going over the fence. Those are likely to come back down to Earth as the season progresses. The missed bats though, and the corresponding rise in strikeout rate (it has jumped nine points) may be for real. In which case, watch out.
by Matthew on May 15, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you, Matthew! I will now succumb to your rec-begging charm!
I was thinking more along the lines of “should I hate him as much as ”http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/3/23/808090/open-wbc-korea-vs-japan-fi#13340180" target="new">I hate Dustin Pedroia?" But this works too.
Link fail. Meant to say: "should I hate Lester as much as I hate Dustin Pedroia?"
Whom I hate for his MLB 2K9 or whatever commercial.
We shall agree to disagree.
Although my beef is more with seeing it 20 times per game during the World Baseball Classic than with the commercial itself.
The M's head groundskeeper used to be his coach?
I hate Jon Lester less than all other Red Sox, though that’s just T-town pride (though technically Lester’s from Puyallup).
I hate him
and hope he dies a thousand painful deaths.
Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"
...and I was worried we would become bored without being able to make the Josh Hamilton cocaine-addiction jokes.
But I think cancer recurrence is a worthy replacement.
"You're so beautiful. You could be a part-time model, but you'd probably still have to keep your normal job."
I'm off to the game!
If anyone wants to find me I’ll be wearing my Brandon Morrow Tacoma Rainiers hat, and will be sitting in RF with a big “Red Sox ‘Nation’ is a Bandwagon” sign.
Do something unexpected and win, M’s!
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
So, to sum up...
… I should spend as much of this weekend obliterating as much of my brain as possible, because of the horror of seeing a bunch of obnoxious bandwagoners cheer as we get killed?
by eponymous_coward on May 15, 2009 4:48 PM PDT reply actions
Has David Ortiz hit a homerun yet?
If not, time to put down some money on it happening at the weekend!
Bring it on down to Marinerville!
You got slurved!
Free Tommy Hanson! Free Jeff Clement! Free Michael Saunders!
"Ortiz and Beltre need to get back on the juice"
- overheard in Revere, MA on a Friday night in May 2009
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